Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

It is clear that Russia is trying to advance as much as they reasonably can before the aid now coming Ukraine's way starts to have an appreciable effect - which might not be too long.

[Open Source Intelligence]

In the Avdiivka front alone, Russia has captured more ground than Ukraine ever did during it's counteroffensive. Not to mention ever since the Ukrainians have gradually lost it's gains around Robotyne and Bakhmut since then.

That's more a symbol of the Ukrainian counteroffensive did not achieve success than Russia are running roughshod. They're advancing northwest of Avdiivka the past 10 days, we're still talking kilometers though.

It is clear that Russia is trying to advance as much as they reasonably can before the aid now coming Ukraine's way starts to have an appreciable effect - which might not be too long.

The gains northwest of Avdiivka are from Western/Ukrainian points of view considered opportunistic in nature and Ukrainian followers have blamed it on a technical mistake in Ukrainian military leadership in the area, due to a mistake in troop rotation, lack of coordination with surrounding groups, or something. The Frontelligence Substack - which says he's a former Ukrainian officer (no way I can independently verify this of course, but it got shared by Michael Kofman's Twitter) - says he believes these anecdotes from his conversations should be considered alongside his belief the brigades (~3000-man strong units) are just not combat-ready.

http://frontelligence.substack.com/p/fronteline-analysis-a-concise-look

As far as effects on the broader conflict, Ukrainian defensive lines in the area northwest of Avdiivka are somewhat compromised - a defensive line that the Russians have overrun doesn't do anything for you - and the Ukrainians now have to commit to making new defensive lines. The advances also threaten supply lines to more southern-based Ukrainian front line troops if the Russians can advance further.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Sounds like Afghanistan II

It does. For Russia.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that Russian forces broke through and reached  the canal south of Chasov Yar

[jaichind]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=469771.29050;num_replies=29053

"Ukraine’s $61 bln lifeline is not enough"

The bait and switch is already starting.  Now the $61 billion is not enough.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It is clear that Russia is trying to advance as much as they reasonably can before the aid now coming Ukraine's way starts to have an appreciable effect - which might not be too long.

Pretty much though I can’t tell if it’s for tactics or possibly equipment related reasons that they opted to go infantry heavy over mechanical pushes, if the goal is to gobble as much as possible then going infantry heavy is counterproductive as it goes slower

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=469771.29050;num_replies=29053

"Ukraine’s $61 bln lifeline is not enough"

The bait and switch is already starting.  Now the $61 billion is not enough.

Say what???

We never said it was enough. Much of that "$61 bln lifeline" is not even actually going to Ukraine in the first place.

Congress should 100% definitely pass additional legislation to further support Ukraine, and should get to work on it today.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=469771.29050;num_replies=29053

"Ukraine’s $61 bln lifeline is not enough"

The bait and switch is already starting.  Now the $61 billion is not enough.

Say what???

We never said it was enough. Much of that "$61 bln lifeline" is not even actually going to Ukraine in the first place.

Congress should 100% definitely pass additional legislation to further support Ukraine, and should get to work on it today.

I’m shocked our resident “Putin is my favorite world leader and I’d totally invest in child brothels if I could get away with it” poster would engage in bad faith

[Storr]

"SCOOP: The debris from a missile that landed in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on Jan. 2 was from a North Korean Hwasong-11 series ballistic missile, United Nations sanctions monitors told a Security Council committee in a report seen by Reuters on Monday."

https://twitter.com/michellenichols/status/1785011518524022923

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I’m shocked our resident “Putin is my favorite world leader and I’d totally invest in child brothels if I could get away with it” poster would engage in bad faith

This, except... He won't actually engage. Instead, he will just ignore and keep posting his spam stream rather than to actively discuss with other posters.

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/experten-und-soldaten-warnen-ukraine-fehlen-soldaten-um-putin-zu-stoppen-662f5680def5782acea6508f

"Ukraine lacks the soldiers to stop Putin"

Dmytro Kukharchuk, commander in the 3rd Separate Brigade, to the TV channel “We are Ukraine”: “We are holding out, but we have a problem. I used to say that the biggest problem is the lack of artillery shells, but today it is the lack of human resources.”

I think the issue is less about having enough men but enough trained men.  The good news for Ukraine is that trained me is less needed in the likely defensive warfare Ukraine will have the wage this year and most likely next.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

And indeed, sure enough. 0 attempt to engage with other posters, the spam continues instead.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sounds like Afghanistan II

It does. For Russia.

Too early to tell.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that Russians have  captured Paraskovievka en route to Konstantinovka which if captured would cut off the supply route to Ugledar

[CumbrianLefty]

Too early to tell.

Is it though? Even in the incredibly unlikely event (despite recent hype that they are "on the verge of victory") that they conquered every inch of Ukraine, Russia would surely face massive resistance.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1785631370447913008?s=12
Man if we gave Ukraine atacms in 22 😩

[Storr]

"For the @FT, I wrote about the battle of Chasiv Yar and why the town matters for the general Ukrainian defense in the Donbas region. In short: taking Chasiv Yar would give the Russian military a lot of options
https://www.ft.com/content/01cbf434-ebd8-4acd-970b-cd772015a348"

https://twitter.com/fabrice_deprez/status/1785550595505463752

[jaichind]

Is Ukraine is trying to create its own version of Karine Jean-Pierre?  The chances of someone from Ukraine looking like this person are nearly zero.

https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1785558101908742526

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say the Russians have entered into Arkhangelsk

[Storr]

Is Ukraine is trying to create its own version of Karine Jean-Pierre?  The chances of someone from Ukraine looking like this person are nearly zero.

https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1785558101908742526

It’s more likely than you’d think. One of Zelensky’s Party MPs is half Rwandan (His father is from Rwanda while his mother is Ukrainian).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhan_Beleniuk

[Hindsight was 2020]

Is Ukraine is trying to create its own version of Karine Jean-Pierre?  The chances of someone from Ukraine looking like this person are nearly zero.

https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1785558101908742526

I know that be as ridiculous as trying to pass this guy off as the president of Peru:
https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberto_Fujimori

[Woody]

HIMARS destroyed (Kharkiv Oblast):

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1785744820922954158

[Woody]

My guess is somebody must have tipped them off. How else are they able to track a vehicle (presumably switching it's hiding place day-by-day) several dozen kilometers behind the frontlines?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Too early to tell.

Is it though? Even in the incredibly unlikely event (despite recent hype that they are "on the verge of victory") that they conquered every inch of Ukraine, Russia would surely face massive resistance.

Well, what does an "Afghanistan" mean precisely? Jaichind perhaps imagines a South Vietnam type situation (build up proxy ally fails badly). There's still room for either side to suffer huge embarrassment of that kind however unlikely it looks, I wouldn't predict it for either side in this proxy conflict just yet, I doubt the story would be conclusively resolved then.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Zelensky Working From Home

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6WQHr_SYqr/