Not quite sure how McCain wins without Ohio in 2008...something like this?
Obama was simply too strong in the Upper Midwest for Republicans' path to 270 to run through the region. McCain would have had had to win the Sun Belt + overperform in New England (maybe with the help of Lieberman?)
In this world where Obama blows the 2008 election in spectacular fashion, the Democrats would probably be too skittish to re-nominate him in 2012. Hillary Clinton would have been on the inside track to the nomination, and Obama planned to retire from the Senate in 2010 anyway. My guess for how your scenario goes:
