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There would be Family Guy episodes about Bartlet, Santos, and Vinick, and BRTD would never let us forget about it.

Florida Man, right?

Could you see Mayawati's base of Jatav Dalits eroding to the Congress/SP or would that not feasibly happen?

The Jatav vote has historically been fairly negative toward SP and to some extent INC.  It is the non-Jatav Dalit vote that has been historically INC before the rise of the BSP.  The BJP is in a better position than SP-INC to eat into the Jatav vote.  The only way out for SP-INC is to keep on pushing the forward vs backward narrative just like the BJP will always run the Hindu vs Muslim narrative.

The left is known to love free stuff.

WB results

AITC surge mostly came from gains from women voters which made up lost ground with male voters that swung toward BJP for anti-incumbency reasons.   Left Front-INC running separately successfully ate into the anti-AITC Hindu vote away from BJP while Left Front-INC Muslim votes shifted to AITC just like in the 2021 assembly elections.

AITC was able to replicate its 2021 assembly election success against the BJP and regained lost ground from 2019




2024 LS
AITC                 29      46.16%
BJP                   12      38.08%
Left Front-INC     1       11.05%
ISF                    0         1.08% (Muslim)



2021 assembly
AITC+           215       48.61%
BJP+              77        38.49%
Left Front         0          5.73%
INC                 0          3.06%
ISF                 1          1.36%
(Left Front INC and ISF had a tactical alliance)



2019
AITC            22         43.69%
BJP             18          40.64%           
Left Front      0           7.54%
INC               2           5.67%

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1800609911576895513

Ok yeah 57 makes much more sense then 70-80 based on where polls are rn. (Tie nationally; within the MOE in the swing states that matter)

Israel’s war crimes being very easy to see

^This

It's hard to see abstract ideas like global warming or pollution.

On the other hand, the genocide of the Palestinians comes in graphical photos and videos that leave nothing to the imagination.

Still a lot of tension in Renew after Hayer's proposal to exclude VVD, which of course has angered all the right-leaning liberal parties in the group. Would be strange if Hayer is not replaced as leader.

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-france-mep-eu-parliament-valerie-hayer-renew-group-elections/

Poll of Hartlepool by We Think (formerly known as Omnisis)

Lab 58
Reform 23
Con 10
Lib Dem 6
Green 2

What's the record vote share change between a by-election and the following General?

The current Electoral Calculus prediction for that constituency is:

Lab 40.3
Reform 9.7
Con 37.2
Lib Dem 2.3
Green 1.8

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Hartlepool

So that seems like a very good poll for Labour and also Reform, and horrible for the Tories. However, it could also suggest that a fairly large share of the Reform vote might come from Labour-leave areas, which could make the reform vote less efficient? Or maybe the Electoral Calculus model is a bit dubious.

Nobody ever went broke betting against Electoral Calculus's predictions.

In individual seats Electoral Calculus, MRP, and Exit Polls have been wrong, but the overall seat numbers usually are on the money, as "Hat Eating" LD's experienced in 2015.

If this were Don Jr. the left would be lapping this up.

Not really, Trump is responsible for his own behavior not that of his adult son.