Why is the Biden campaign investing in Florida?

[2016]

NC is the more realistic Debbie Powell won't win, she is begging for donations

I think you are right! One of the rare times I agree with you.

[2016]

They are building for the future. Democrats know that they need more than 25 states where they can win a Senate race.

Imagine thinking that a few Biden ads now will save Florida Democrats years from now.

Is there a once-swing state that seemed like it was gone for one party, but then became a swing state again?

Nevada

Yes and No. Nevada is a Swing State when it comes to State Elections like Governor, Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Secretary of State, Attorney General and things like that.
However while Republicans have come close on numerous occasions they haven't won the Presidential Contest in the Silver State since 2004 and they haven't a Statewide Federal Race (Senate) since then Senator Dean Heller beat Shelley Berkley in 2012.

[South Dakota Democrat]

They are building for the future. Democrats know that they need more than 25 states where they can win a Senate race.

Imagine thinking that a few Biden ads now will save Florida Democrats years from now.

Is there a once-swing state that seemed like it was gone for one party, but then became a swing state again?

Nevada

Yes and No. Nevada is a Swing State when it comes to State Elections like Governor, Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Secretary of State, Attorney General and things like that.
However while Republicans have come close on numerous occasions they haven't won the Presidential Contest in the Silver State since 2004 and they haven't a Statewide Federal Race (Senate) since then Senator Dean Heller beat Shelley Berkley in 2012.

Sure.  That's why I like to use the term battleground state rather than swing state though.  It hasn't flipped recently but it's been close/it's one of the states the election is fought in.  That wasn't really the case as much in 2008 and 2012, when Obama won it comfortably.

[2016]

They are building for the future. Democrats know that they need more than 25 states where they can win a Senate race.

Imagine thinking that a few Biden ads now will save Florida Democrats years from now.

Is there a once-swing state that seemed like it was gone for one party, but then became a swing state again?

Nevada

Yes and No. Nevada is a Swing State when it comes to State Elections like Governor, Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Secretary of State, Attorney General and things like that.
However while Republicans have come close on numerous occasions they haven't won the Presidential Contest in the Silver State since 2004 and they haven't a Statewide Federal Race (Senate) since then Senator Dean Heller beat Shelley Berkley in 2012.

Sure.  That's why I like to use the term battleground state rather than swing state though.  It hasn't flipped recently but it's been close/it's one of the states the election is fought in.  That wasn't really the case as much in 2008 and 2012, when Obama won it comfortably.

McCain and Romney were terrible fits for Nevada though. Trump with his Economic Populism was a better fit hence the reason NV was closer in 2016 & 2020 and will be again this year I think.

Meanwhile when it comes to the Governors Race in 2022 Lombardo took a page out of Ron DeSantis by hammering Governor Sisolak for locking down the State for too long causing a this economic despair & anxienty. Nevadas Tourism Industry took a massive hit because of Sisolaks draconian lockdowns during COVID-19 which went by far too long. Nevada is a State that relies heavily on Tourism.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lombardo is pro choice Laxalt was pro Life Marist had NV CCM winning and all the others had Laxalt winning. We have a D Delegation in NV except for the Gov. It's a D state Biden will win it

[Bush did 311]

They are building for the future. Democrats know that they need more than 25 states where they can win a Senate race.

Just pay 200,000 Californians to move to Montana or something. Probably cheaper and less far-fetched than trying to hang on to a state that is clearly gone.

[Progressive Pessimist]

They are building for the future. Democrats know that they need more than 25 states where they can win a Senate race.

Just pay 200,000 Californians to move to Montana or something. Probably cheaper and less far-fetched than trying to hang on to a state that is clearly gone.

I say we pay every Democratic Floridian to be distributed across the other major battlegrounds.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The answer is the Biden campaign is incredibly confident in their prospects this November and seeks to expand the map as winning places like Florida would humiliate Trump and the GOP.

[Beet]

Other: They are drowning in money and feel another marginal dollar elsewhere won't help more.

[2016]

The Florida Republican Party will soon release an Ad saying "President Biden & Debbie Mucarsel-Powell are proven Castro & Maduro Puppets".

Pigs flying already 6 Months before the Election I love it

[Bush did 311]

They are building for the future. Democrats know that they need more than 25 states where they can win a Senate race.

Just pay 200,000 Californians to move to Montana or something. Probably cheaper and less far-fetched than trying to hang on to a state that is clearly gone.

I say we pay every Democratic Floridian to be distributed across the other major battlegrounds.

A lot of people are leaving the state though it remains to be seen if these are political refugees or missionaries.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is gone

[Libs of Ben-Gvir]

I feel like Biden is very slow to adjust to trends and holds up to worldviews that are no longer true for far too long.

Florida as still a swing state and his loyalty to Israel are two obvious examples.

[Yellowhammer]

Biden could very well win Florida. It's a 50/50 proposition at best for Trump.

[All Along The Watchtower]

To answer the OP: It’s a very large state with an abortion referendum and a Senate race, and also Trump won it by less than 4 points.

Given the above, why the hell would the well-resourced Biden campaign, or Democrats in general, ignore those 30 electoral votes?

[Del Tachi]

Biden can win Florida.  Not to say he will, but he can.

[2016]

Biden can win Florida.  Not to say he will, but he can.

Not with 1.1M more Registered Republicans living in the State since he last ran in 2020.

The State is out of reach. Biden & Harris will soon find that out the hard way.

[Obama24]

Biden can win Florida.  Not to say he will, but he can.

I think he might win Florida.

I can see him winning narrowly Florida and losing one of the "Blue Wall" states, or PA.

[2016]

DeSantis mocks Pres Biden & VP Harris, welcomes them to spent Millions of wasted Campaign $$$ in the State

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1785349084812816794

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have NC, TX, OH, MD, NE, WV no poll, AZ and MT S races as completetive, THATS ENOUGH. WV is Lean R I know but why haven't they polled it, it can be a surprise like TX in 2024.

That's why I say don't wave the white flag like Millennial MODERATE does Ds always overperform the polls

It's worth noting Emerson had Johnson and Laxalt plus 5 in 22 they were wrong especially in NV.  So, I would take EMERSON as a grain of salt

[2016]

The Data isn't backing up what Democrats are claiming...

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1785310974502695316

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He should put all his infersis on AZ, GA and NC, it's fools gold. But, TX Sen is there can be a real upset because some polls has Biden at 45/51 Approvals not 39


That's why I say it's not Biden it's Harris low Approvals that's why she will be challenged by Newsom for Prez in 28 but Newsom isn't gonna say he will be running until after 24

Females like Harris and Hillary have problems with white men whom put Trump over the top and angry white females in 16

[mileslunn]

More to have infrastructure in place if polls improve.  While unlikely state is competitive if you take the most optimistic swing between now and fall, it could be so just in case that happens once infrastructure ready to go.  If it doesn't happen can easily pull out and re-direct money to more important states.

I also think he should do same in Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, and Virginia as while very unlikely to lose any of those four, just in case.  At same time maybe Biden campaign figures if in trouble in those, they will lose anyways. 

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Several reasons:

1. They have internal data that suggests that investment is worth it - maybe Florida isn’t as far gone as many on here seem to think. In 2016 even though FL was only 0.4% to the right of WI, the Biden team seemed to deprioritize it as part of their path - they likely knew better than we did that Dems were struggling in the state. I’d also remind folks in 2020 Trump “only” won Florida by 3%. That’s historically a decent R win by Florida standards but isn’t some kind of mega landslide victory. And sure one can point to FL in 2022 as proof the state is going hard right, but Dems landsliding in PA and MI doesn’t seem like proof those states are in the bag for Biden.

2. Recency bias. Obama won FL twice when Biden was VP - just because Dems have seen a path to winning statewide in FL presidentially in relatively recent history, they see it more optimistically than a place like TX where a Dem statewide win hasn’t happened for a long time.

3. Biden team just has a lot of money. Campaigns are never spend money on the 5 main swing states and nowhere else - it’s good to diversify to make multiple possible paths to victory and also help downballot candidates. FL-Sen could very realistically be the Senate tipping point and Biden knows keeping the state close keeps DMP in the game.

4. This ties into the last point a bit but spending money in Florida forces the Trump team to spend money there - especially with Trumps ego he probably wants to prioritize a large win in Florida and any money Biden spends in FL is a threat to that.

Could easily be some combination of these factors

Yeah this seems reasonable

2 and 3 makes most sense, more skeptical / uncertain of 4. Don't believe 1 is the case.

Not a bad idea to write it off, biden and the dems have the money advantage anyways.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I feel like Biden is very slow to adjust to trends and holds up to worldviews that are no longer true for far too long.

Florida as still a swing state and his loyalty to Israel are two obvious examples.

Not just Biden but more people in general, perhaps a majority of the USA even but Biden definitely represents that very well, age has likely something to do with it. If you are used to swing state Florida for decades it's hard to believe it is truly really gone.

Like sure, you can theoretically win it and he can but if he does he already has won. It's just why not invest in Texas as well, since Texas is really at that level Florida already is and there's a lot more potential for boosting turnout in Texas which likely favours liberal demographics a lot relative to Florida's turnout which already is traditionally very high since again it has been a purple state since anyone can remember basically.

It's likely he won't win Texas either sicne the fundamentals just don't seem to be there at this point of the stage, but it could basically guarantee a purple state in 2028 and at this point i have an easier time seeing TX flip than FL flip again.