Perceptions of the economy, and history's echo.

[Obama24]

History is often said to echo rather than directly be replicated.

Back in 1992, America was in what was at the time called a jobless recovery. The prime period of actual recession (July 1990 - March 1991) had passed, yet despite the statistics, Americans in 1992 felt things could be better economically. It is because of this that the Clinton campaign focused on the economy - "it's the economy stupid" and the perception of a sluggish economy, it could be argued, was a big factor in his victory.

Now, in 2024, by numbers the economy has gotten out of the precarious position it was in in 2020-2022. Yet it seems that in the perception of a number of Americans, the economy is still poor. Even though we are technically out of the worst of the economic downturn, Americans still feel wages are too small and inflation, especially in food, is still high. Will Trump be able to use this perception that the economy "is bad" to win?

[Progressive Pessimist]

That's the only reason Trump can win.

Simultaneously, Trump being his opponent is a big reason why Biden can still win.

[Obama24]

That's the only reason Trump can win.

Simultaneously, Trump being his opponent is a big reason why Biden can still win.

I think Biden is ironically now probably one of the few Democrats that could lose, actually. Had, say, Michelle Obama had run this year, she'd have won in a landslide. I think even Hillary Clinton could've done a better job and actually beaten him this time. The nostalgia for the 90s is a lot stronger now than it was in 2016, even among Gen Z who wasn't even alive for most of it. I think the time is also more right for a female President.

Frankly, the idea should've been Biden wins in 2020. He presides over the end of Covid and is seen as a guy who stopped Trump in 2020. Legacy secure, he passes the ball to a younger and/or stronger Democrat with a stronger brand than him to win against Trump again in 2024.

[Dan the Roman]

That's the only reason Trump can win.

Simultaneously, Trump being his opponent is a big reason why Biden can still win.

I think Biden is ironically now probably one of the few Democrats that could lose, actually. Had, say, Michelle Obama had run this year, she'd have won in a landslide. I think even Hillary Clinton could've done a better job and actually beaten him this time. The nostalgia for the 90s is a lot stronger now than it was in 2016, even among Gen Z who wasn't even alive for most of it. I think the time is also more right for a female President.

Frankly, the idea should've been Biden wins in 2020. He presides over the end of Covid and is seen as a guy who stopped Trump in 2020. Legacy secure, he passes the ball to a younger and/or stronger Democrat with a stronger brand than him to win against Trump again in 2024.

On the contrary, Bill Clinton neutralizes a lot of Trump's weaknesses. Imagine Bill being around while Stormy Daniels is testifying at Trump's trial.

I do agree regarding the first part, but Clinton nostalgia peaked in the mid 2000s and has depreciated ever since.

[Obama24]

That's the only reason Trump can win.

Simultaneously, Trump being his opponent is a big reason why Biden can still win.

I think Biden is ironically now probably one of the few Democrats that could lose, actually. Had, say, Michelle Obama had run this year, she'd have won in a landslide. I think even Hillary Clinton could've done a better job and actually beaten him this time. The nostalgia for the 90s is a lot stronger now than it was in 2016, even among Gen Z who wasn't even alive for most of it. I think the time is also more right for a female President.

Frankly, the idea should've been Biden wins in 2020. He presides over the end of Covid and is seen as a guy who stopped Trump in 2020. Legacy secure, he passes the ball to a younger and/or stronger Democrat with a stronger brand than him to win against Trump again in 2024.

On the contrary, Bill Clinton neutralizes a lot of Trump's weaknesses. Imagine Bill being around while Stormy Daniels is testifying at Trump's trial.

I do agree regarding the first part, but Clinton nostalgia peaked in the mid 2000s and has depreciated ever since.

Gotta disagree with that. Your terminally online person really only cares about Clinton's indiscretions...And I think your average person is more nostalgic now. for the 90s in general - cost of living, the reach of a dollar, etc - even if they're not nostalgic for the Clintons per se.

Trump is also uniquely horrifying compared even to Bill - Sexualizing his own daughter, Daniels coming out and saying he reminded her of his daughter, etc.

Also, we had 4 years of Trump and everything Hillary said about him ended up being vindicated.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

That's the only reason Trump can win.

Simultaneously, Trump being his opponent is a big reason why Biden can still win.

I think Biden is ironically now probably one of the few Democrats that could lose, actually. Had, say, Michelle Obama had run this year, she'd have won in a landslide. I think even Hillary Clinton could've done a better job and actually beaten him this time. The nostalgia for the 90s is a lot stronger now than it was in 2016, even among Gen Z who wasn't even alive for most of it. I think the time is also more right for a female President.

Frankly, the idea should've been Biden wins in 2020. He presides over the end of Covid and is seen as a guy who stopped Trump in 2020. Legacy secure, he passes the ball to a younger and/or stronger Democrat with a stronger brand than him to win against Trump again in 2024.

Just curious though if you had to predict the election RN, what would you say your prediction is?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's income inequality out there we can't afford to renew the tax cuts in 25 on rich people. That said voters don't like inflation and they think Biden has a magic button to press to end inflation just like they thought Jimmy Carter did and we got worse Reagan trickled down economics

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Who is the economy bad for? My stock portfolio is doing wonderfully, my salary continues to rocket, and I don't know anyone struggling. I just don't understand

[Obama24]

Who is the economy bad for? My stock portfolio is doing wonderfully, my salary continues to rocket, and I don't know anyone struggling. I just don't understand

Working class people. Not everyone lives on the golf course.

[Obama24]

That's the only reason Trump can win.

Simultaneously, Trump being his opponent is a big reason why Biden can still win.

I think Biden is ironically now probably one of the few Democrats that could lose, actually. Had, say, Michelle Obama had run this year, she'd have won in a landslide. I think even Hillary Clinton could've done a better job and actually beaten him this time. The nostalgia for the 90s is a lot stronger now than it was in 2016, even among Gen Z who wasn't even alive for most of it. I think the time is also more right for a female President.

Frankly, the idea should've been Biden wins in 2020. He presides over the end of Covid and is seen as a guy who stopped Trump in 2020. Legacy secure, he passes the ball to a younger and/or stronger Democrat with a stronger brand than him to win against Trump again in 2024.

Just curious though if you had to predict the election RN, what would you say your prediction is?

I say lean Trump at the moment, but it feels like it changes from week to week RN. Ask me again in October.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Who is the economy bad for? My stock portfolio is doing wonderfully, my salary continues to rocket, and I don't know anyone struggling. I just don't understand

I think part of what's going on is a lot of groups have incentive to say the economy is bad, regardless of if they believe or not at a personal level.

-Trump supporters will say the economy just to oppose Biden.

-Those on the far-left will say the economy is bad to try and argue Democrats aren't doing enough and justify many of their massive policy proposals.

-Amongst young people, there's social pressure to say the economy is bad because frankly being a young person is just hard; saying the economy is bad helps make you better connect with others. Also frankly young people do have a lot of valid economic concerns (i.e. housing) that politicians on both sides aren't doing a great job of addressing because the people who vote tend to be older people who have homes.

-Many in media, both news media and social media have incentive to say the economy is bad because that tends to get better engagement.

I think the biggest thing is that Biden voters are probably a lot more willing to admit their true opinion on the economy in a poll regardless of who's President than Trump voters. I think this is for 2 main reasons: firstly Trump voters see the President as more attached to the economy than Biden voters, and secondly, a large faction of Trump voters are just more cultish in nature and will say anything to support Trump at all cost - in this case saying the economy is good/bad is a proxy for supporting Trump.

If the Republican Party continues to lean into Trumpism in the long term, I expect the default to be polling showing more optimism under Republican administrations and vise-versa, for the reasons listed above.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who is the economy bad for? My stock portfolio is doing wonderfully, my salary continues to rocket, and I don't know anyone struggling. I just don't understand

I think part of what's going on is a lot of groups have incentive to say the economy is bad, regardless of if they believe or not at a personal level.

-Trump supporters will say the economy just to oppose Biden.

-Those on the far-left will say the economy is bad to try and argue Democrats aren't doing enough and justify many of their massive policy proposals.

-Amongst young people, there's social pressure to say the economy is bad because frankly being a young person is just hard; saying the economy is bad helps make you better connect with others. Also frankly young people do have a lot of valid economic concerns (i.e. housing) that politicians on both sides aren't doing a great job of addressing because the people who vote tend to be older people who have homes.

-Many in media, both news media and social media have incentive to say the economy is bad because that tends to get better engagement.

I think the biggest thing is that Biden voters are probably a lot more willing to admit their true opinion on the economy in a poll regardless of who's President than Trump voters. I think this is for 2 main reasons: firstly Trump voters see the President as more attached to the economy than Biden voters, and secondly, a large faction of Trump voters are just more cultish in nature and will say anything to support Trump at all cost - in this case saying the economy is good/bad is a proxy for supporting Trump.

If the Republican Party continues to lean into Trumpism in the long term, I expect the default to be polling showing more optimism under Republican administrations and vise-versa, for the reasons listed above.

Good points.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Who is the economy bad for? My stock portfolio is doing wonderfully, my salary continues to rocket, and I don't know anyone struggling. I just don't understand

The biggest problems right now are inflation/cost of living, and finding a decent job. Getting an entry level position in 2024 is borderline impossible for many, and the vast majority of job openings that you see created are minimum wage service jobs. But that's before you realize that it isn't enough due to prices raising and you have to work multiple. I understand that its a different story for everyone, but Atlas needs to understand that they are more white collar and higher educated than the average American.

Biden's biggest issue is inflation, whereas in 2012 Obama's was unemployment. Even if you think the economy is okay right now, is it seriously better than 2019?