Kansas 2016 discrepancy (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 02, 2024, 05:46:31 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  About this Site
  The Atlas
  Kansas 2016 discrepancy (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Kansas 2016 discrepancy  (Read 882 times)
Republican Party Stalwart
Stalwart_Grantist
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 394
United States


« on: April 01, 2024, 04:31:30 PM »

I'm pretty sure that the swing/trend maps do not merely show the size of swings per se, but also show the impact of swings in changing the margin to a different "bracket" per election. In both the 2012 and 2016 POTUS elections, Finney County's margin was between 30 and 40 points Republican (Romney +39.0 in 2012, Trump +30.6 in 2016). However, Douglas county's margin was under 30 points in 2012 and over 30 points in 2016 (Obama +24.5 in 2012, Clinton +32.3 in 2016) Therefore, even though Finney's swing was larger, the swing in Douglas County moved the county from the "D +20-30%" column to the "D +30-40% column", whereas the swing in Finney did not move Finney from one "range"/"level" to another in such a way.
Logged
Republican Party Stalwart
Stalwart_Grantist
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 394
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2024, 10:00:59 AM »

I'm pretty sure that the swing/trend maps do not merely show the size of swings per se, but also show the impact of swings in changing the margin to a different "bracket" per election. In both the 2012 and 2016 POTUS elections, Finney County's margin was between 30 and 40 points Republican (Romney +39.0 in 2012, Trump +30.6 in 2016). However, Douglas county's margin was under 30 points in 2012 and over 30 points in 2016 (Obama +24.5 in 2012, Clinton +32.3 in 2016) Therefore, even though Finney's swing was larger, the swing in Douglas County moved the county from the "D +20-30%" column to the "D +30-40% column", whereas the swing in Finney did not move Finney from one "range"/"level" to another in such a way.

I don't think that's right. Looking at 2016 pres again, LA County had a larger swing than Monterey County. However, LA County's margin was in the 40-50 point range in both 2012 and 2016, while Monterey County's margin was under 40 points in 2012 and over 40 points in 2016. The swing map shows LA County in a darker shade of pink than Monterey County.

Yeah, you're right. I just looked again, and something I noticed is that the large map for Kansas 2016 does have Finney County shaded more strongly red than Douglas on the trend map, a reversal of the standard Kansas 2016 trend page.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.021 seconds with 10 queries.