Oregon 2016 GE Pres Results

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Thread Index

So, in order to make this thread easier to navigate, I have decided to compile an alphabetical list by County with a hyperlink to the County Updates.

Baker County---- County Update # 28:

Part I: Overview & Baker City
      
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5625521#msg5625521

Part II: Huntington & Rural

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5625617#msg5625617

Benton County: County Update # 3

Part I: Overview & Corvallis

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5411043#msg5411043

Part II: North Albany, Philomath, & Rural

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5411091#msg5411091

Clackamas County: County Update # 23:

Part I: Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5507795#msg5507795

Part II: "Inner Dem Suburbs" : Milwaukee, Gladstone, Oregon City

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5509677#msg5509677

Part III: "Wealthier Clack Suburbs": Lake Oswego, West Linn,

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5512900#msg5512900

Part IV: Exurban Clackamas County: Wilsonville, Happy Valley, Sandy, & Canby

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5514303#msg5514303

Part V: Uninc Clackamas County

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5517606#msg5517606

Part VI: Rural Clackamas County

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5522480#msg5522480

Clatsop County: County Update #4

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5412428#msg5412428

Columbia County: County Update # 7:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5417454#msg5417454

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5421432#msg5421432

Coos County: County Update # 5

Version 1.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5413788#msg5413788

Version 2.0

Part I: County Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5754596#msg5754596

Part II: Coos Bay

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5756302#msg5756302

Crook County: County Update #31:

Part I: Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5669616#msg5669616

Part II: Prineville

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5679492#msg5679492

Part III: Prineville Split Precincts

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5690476#msg5690476

Part IV: Rural Crook County

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5696081#msg5696081

Curry County: County Update #1:

Version 1.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5406140#msg5406140

Version 2.0

Part I: County Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5718684#msg5718684

Part II: Brookings

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5721386#msg5721386

Part III: Harbor & Gold Beach

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5723675#msg5723675

Part IV: Port Orford & Elk River

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5751373#msg5751373

Part V: Rural Curry

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5752827#msg5752827

Deschutes County: Oregon Update # 8:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5419852#msg5419852

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5419902#msg5419902

Douglas County: Oregon Update # 18

Part I: County Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5456195#msg5456195

Part II: Roseburg & Towns

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5457206#msg5457206

Part III: Rural Douglas

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5457681#msg5457681

Gilliam County: Oregon Update # 25

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5599316#msg5599316

Grant County: NOT YET COVERED

Harney County: NOT YET COVERED

Hood River County: Oregon Update # 11

Part I: Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5439329#msg5439329

Part II: Hood River City and Towns

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5439695#msg5439695

Jackson County: Oregon Update # 19

Part I: Overview & Medford

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5483203#msg5483203

Part II: Ashland

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5483403#msg5483403

Part III: Small Town Jackson County (Talent, Phoenix, Jacksonville, Central Point, Eagle Point, Misc)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5484972#msg5484972

Part IV: Rural Jackson County

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5486721#msg5486721

Jefferson County: Oregon Update # 9

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5423981#msg5423981

Josephine County: Oregon Update # 12

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5441608#msg5441608

Klamath County- NOT YET COVERED

Lake County- Oregon County Update # 22

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5505702#msg5505702

Lane County- Oregon Update # 14

Part I: Overview and Eugene-Springfield

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5447733#msg5447733

Part II: Uninc Eugene-Springfield

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5448704#msg5448704

Part III: Rural Lane County

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5449549#msg5449549

Part IV: Cottage Grove, Florence, Junction City, Oakridge

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5449775#msg5449775

Lincoln County: Oregon County Update # 13

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5442916#msg5442916

Linn County: Oregon County Update # 21

Part I: Overview & Albany

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5498005#msg5498005

Part II: Lebanon and Sweet Home

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5500112#msg5500112

Part III: Small Town and Rural

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5502334#msg5502334

Malheur County: NOT COVERED YET

Marion County: Oregon County Update #2

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5409873#msg5409873

Morrow County: Oregon Update # 26

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5608335#msg5608335

Multnomah County: Oregon Update # 10

Part I: County Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5428012#msg5428012

Part II: West Multnomah County (HD-27, 31, 33, 35, 36, 38)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5429385#msg5429385

Part III: Inner East Portland (HD-41, 42, 43, 44)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5432017#msg5432017

Part IV: Hollywood Area (HD-46)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5436138#msg5436138

Part V: East Multco (East Portland, Gresham, Troutdale)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5437199#msg5437199

Part VI: Most of Gresham

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5437205#msg5437205

Polk County: Oregon County Update #18

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5480145#msg5480145

Sherman County: Oregon Update # 24:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5597664#msg5597664

Tillamook County: Oregon Update #20:

Part I: Overview & Towns

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5492120#msg5492120

Part II: Rural Tillamook

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5494023#msg5494023

Umatilla County: Oregon Update #29

Part I: County Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5635818#msg5635818

Part II: Pendleton and Hermison

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5637515#msg5637515

Part III: Milton-Freewater and Umatilla City

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5644680#msg5644680

Part IV: Rural Umatilla

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5646265#msg5646265

Union County: Oregon Update # 30

Part I: County Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5648032#msg5648032

Part II: LaGrande

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5655612#msg5655612

Part III: Uninc Towns

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5658662#msg5658662

Part IV: Rural Areas

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5659758#msg5659758

Wallowa County: NOT YET COVERED

Wasco County: Oregon Update # 15

Part I: Overview and The Dalles

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5453027#msg5453027

Part II: Rural Wasco County

Washington County: Update # 17

Part I: Overview

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5463343#msg5463343

Part II: Beaverton

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5465967#msg5465967

Part III: Tigard

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5467416#msg5467416

Part IV: Hillsboro

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5470211#msg5470211

Part V: Tualatin, Sherwood, Forest Grove

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5471478#msg5471478

Part VI: Uninc Washington County

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5472935#msg5472935

Part VII: Rural Washington County:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5474041#msg5474041

Wheeler County- Oregon Update # 27

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5616410#msg5616410

Yamhill County: Oregon Update # 6

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5415007#msg5415007

[NOVA Green]

Original Post of Thread....

Preliminary numbers indicate that Trump has actually performed significantly worse than any Republican ever since at least 1984 in Metro Portland, and the trendline continues to move South....

County Level Returns:

Multnomah: 20% + of statewide vote:

2016: Clinton (73.3%)- Trump- (17.1%)- Others (9.3%)
2012: Obama (75.4%)- Romney- (20.7%)- Others (3.9%)
2008:  Obama (76.7%)- McCain (20.6%)-  Others  (2.7%)
2004: Kerry (71.6%)- Bush Jr (27.1%)- Others (1.3%)
2000: Gore (63.5%)- Bush Jr (28.2%)- Others (8.3%)

Washington County---

2016: Clinton (56.9%)- Trump (31.1)--- Others (12.0%)
2012: Obama (57.1%)- Romney (39.7%)--- Others (3.2%)
2008: Obama (59.8%)- McCain (37.7%)--- Others (2.5%)
2004: Kerry (52.4%)--- Bush Jr (46.4%)--- Others (1.2%)
2000: Gore (48.7%)--- Bush Jr (46.3%)--- Others (5.0%)

Clackamas County---

2016: Clinton (47.6%)- Trump (41.7%)--- Others (10.7%)
2012: Obama (50.7%)- Romney (47.1%)- Others (2.2%)
2008: Obama (53.9%)- McCain (43.6%)-  Others (2.5%)
2004: Kerry (48.8%)- Bush Jr (50.1%)- Others (1.1%)
2000: Gore (47.1%)- Bush Jr (47.8%)- Others (5.1%)



So technically it looks like Oregon voter turnout at 77.2% is at its lowest level since 1996....

Oregon is not California, so we currently have almost 95% of the votes counted, however we still have a record total voting level of 1,938k voters, with an estimated 5% of votes yet to be counted which would bring the total to 2,034k voters which would bring us closer to 78.9% turnout.

Although Oregon introduced automatic voter registration in a VbM state, it appears that a ton of new voters were added to the rolls, and many of those chose not to vote between the "lesser of two evils", although it still bumped overall total voters to a record high, well beyond the the % increase of total potential voters.

Actual results now that 95% of the vote is counted, appears to present a "Tale of Two States".

Although I don't have the actual historical numbers at my fingertips, it does appear that Clinton performed worse than any Democratic candidate since 1984 in many counties in predominately rural and small-town Southern and Eastern Oregon, while at the same time Trump performed worse than any Republican since at least 1964, and likely even back to the 1930s in Multnomah County and fast growing suburban Washington County.

For example, in Douglas County Oregon Clinton received only 27% of the vote, 34% in Coos County (!!!), 31% in Josephine County, 23% in Crook County, 24% in Klamath County, 32% in Linn County (!!!).

Meanwhile Trump received only 18% in Multnomah County (!!!), 33% in Washington County (!!!), and 29% in Benton County....

Note that the Trump counties mentioned above went something like 45-46% Dukakis, 53-54% Dukakis, 42% Dukakis, 47% Dukakis, 41% Dukakis, and 47% Dukakis.

In the Clinton counties mentioned it was more like 37% Bush Sr, and 47% Bush Sr....

Pulling the percentages from memory from '88, but yes Clinton won huge in several key Portland Metro counties and got slaughtered in many downstate counties with historic WWC blue-collar FDR/ New Deal roots.

Will need to pull up the actual percentages, but I think there are many counties in Oregon where there were historic numbers regarding levels of support or collapse for both major party nominees...

[NOVA Green]

So now that the Oregon results are mostly completed, here are a few maps:

This map shows the relative swings in margins between 2012 and 2016:

So Dark Purple (Coos, Columbia, etc indicates an overall total swing towards the Republicans from 2012 and 2026 of >15%. (For example Columbia was +5.2% Obama (50.3-45.1) in '12 and went heavily Trump in 2016 ( 38.2- 49.8% Trump). So total swing was 16.8% Trump.

Lighter Purple (Lincoln/Tillamook/Douglas) would be a +10-15% Republican Swing.

Cyan (Clatsop/Linn?Malheur, etc) would be a 5-10% Republican Swing.

Light Sky Blue (Marion/Jackson/Polk/Lane, etc...) a 0-5% Republican Swing.

Lighter Red: (Deschutes/Clackamas/ Multnomah/Benton etc) a 0-5% Dem Swing.

Darker Red (Washington County only) is a 5-10% Dem Swing.

[NOVA Green]

Dem and Rep swing maps from 2012 to 2016 in terms of the respective percentage of the votes for the GE candidates....

Again, on the map of Republican candidate support levels, darker red indicates Republicans exceeded their 2012 total vote totals by >5%, pink are counties where they increased their support over Romney by 0-5%. Blank= a tie of their support levels from '12-16, light blue underperformed 0-5% from '12 to '16, darker blue underperformed 2012 levels in ;15 by 5-10%.

Next map, same drill with the Dem candidate....

Dark Blue- Dems lost 10% of their votes between 2012 and '16 (Ex: Coos County was 44.8% Obama in '12 and was 33.4% Clinton in '16 which equals a minus 11.4% from the total Dem vote).

Purple- Dem loss of 5-10% of their vote totals.

Light Blue- Dem loss of 0-5% of their vote totals.

[NOVA Green]

So although, I haven't yet run the numbers from '08 and before, several patterns appear to be clear:

1.) Oregon was +12 Obama ('12) and +11 Clinton ('16) but although the statewide margins were similar, there was an extreme shift of the electoral coalitions for the respective candidates. Trump's gains in rural and "downstate" Oregon were essentially offset by a collapse of support in Metro-Portland (Where there was a +8.6% Dem swing in Washington County !!!) as well as smaller margin gains in Multnomah, Clackamas, Benton, and Deschutes Counties.

2.) There was an extreme collapse of Democratic support in several key "FDR/ New Deal" Counties of Columbia and Coos, the former which has traditionally continued to vote Democratic at the Presidential Level and Republican for Statewide offices, and the later which flipped Republican back in 2000 in the final stages of the "Timber Wars" in Southern Oregon, but where a Democratic Presidential Candidate used to be competitive until very recently (2008-  Obama 46.5%- McCain 49.6%) and Clinton managed an epic fail in both counties achieving only 38.2% in Columbia and 33.4% in Coos. Not quite sure how a Democrat in formerly heavily Union counties in Oregon manages to achieve that dubious distinction, but I digress.

3.) Metro-PDX, in particular the Multi-Ethnic suburbs of Washington County are flexing their muscles and Trump's 30.9% of the vote is likely a record low, especially considering it is one of the fastest growing counties in the state by population growth with one of the highest levels of household income by county in the state.... I'll need to check out the precinct numbers once they are posted, but I suspect this is a result of a combination of factors, including a dramatic shift in Asian-American voting patterns, combined with a large increase in Latino turnout, plus a rejection of Trump on the part of many professional and working-class Anglos that don't buy some of the ethnically charged campaign statements.

4.) Over 11% of Oregonians voted for 3rd Party Candidates or did Write-In protest ballots.... This is the highest number ever since Perot back in '92 and John Anderson back in '80.

Although we don't know yet where the 3% of write-in votes went, it appears that the Lions share might well have gone to Bernie Sanders, Mitt Romney, and McMullen, since this vote was almost even distributed across the state, with some of the highest percentage of county write-in votes coming from Eastern Oregon where many counties are 10-15% Mormon, and many of the Millennials are Latinos in counties that Bernie dominated in during the '16 Dem Primaries.

5.) There was an extremely weird swing in a handful of rural counties in the "Grain Belt" of Oregon (Sherman, Gilliam, and Morrow). Was there something weird that caused this dramatic swing, like we saw in places like ND/SD, or was this just a random anti-incumbent flip scene?

6.) It does appear that there was a decent-sized flip against the Democratic Party in natural resource dependent communities in Southern Oregon and along the Oregon Coast. For example, Tillamook, Lincoln, and Douglas shifted towards the Republicans in communities heavily dominated by timber, fishing, tourism, and retirees.... Even Clatsop County failed to deliver 50% to Clinton, after voting (59-39) Obama in '08. Many of the votes in these communities appeared to go to either 3rd Part candidates or write-ins (Bernie???).

7.) Lane County (Although it voted (+20.2% Clinton) had one of its lowest levels of Democratic support since '92. Although many people think of it only in the context of Eugene "Hippie College Town" they don't have a clue since the city, and Metro Area still have a significant WWC basis, and 30% of the county is rural and small-town outside of Eugene-Springfield, and Trump appears to have done well in many of these small towns and rural communities.

8.) Deschutes is moving into flip zone. Obama narrowly lost against McCain in '08 (48.7-49.0%), it swung towards Romney in '12 (+6.7) and swung hard towards Clinton in '16 (43.0-46.6%) for the lowest level a Republican GE nominee has achieved in decades (46.6%).

9.) Jackson County--- This one surprised me a bit.... went narrowly for Obama in '08 (48.6% *- 48.6%), swung Rep in '12 (+4.7% R) but both Clinton and Trump's numbers collapsed from 2012 as voters flocked towards 3rd Part candidates. I think I underestimated the swings in Blue-Collar parts of the county, and overestimated the impact of college voters in Ashland, and White college educated retirees in places like Medford, Jacksonville, and the surrounding areas....

10.) Jefferson/Wasco/Klamath Counties---- Still curious once I see precinct level results if the Clinton collapse in Native Communities is replicated in Oregon.... Interestingly enough there wasn't a dramatic swing towards Trump in these counties, although there was a significant drop-off in support for Clinton.

11.) Rural Eastern Oregon---- There doesn't appear to have been a massive swing towards Trump in these areas. Still not sure if it was more of question that the Republican base was already maxed out, or a combination of Mormon voters writing-in alternate candidates, combined with an increased level of Latino turnout.... Will need to examine this question further.

[NOVA Green]

Any news on the write ins? I remember there being a question of whether or not they are going to be tabulated by person.

Oregon does tabulate by person, regardless of statewide statute, the question is will I need to go to Salem Oregon and chill out for a few hours in a small archive room of the election division to manually crunch the numbers, or will we at least see some of them posted online for the larger counties!

Trust me, the data is there and collected by the counties in giant bundles of archived paperwork that at leased used to submitted to the state for record retention, it's more of a question of where and how accessible that data is.....

[NOVA Green]

So, I decided to create an Oregon 2000-2016 Swing Map, in order to be able to graphically show the dramatic shifts within the state Pres GE Electorate during that time frame...

Note: that at this time many parts of WWC rural and small-town Oregon had already shifted Republican, where there were many counties such as Douglas, Linn, Union, Crook, and Coos where Democrats were still strongly competitive prior the collapse of the Timber Industry in the late '80s and early '90s.... In the first four cases a self-avowed Liberal from Massachusetts was able to garner 45-47% of the vote, and in the case of Coos County was able to hold onto to an historic FDR Union County....

So here are my definitions of "swings", since I wanted to break down numbers to both low level and high level numbers.

Examples:

Baker County in 2000 was (26.6-68.0 R) or +41.4% R. In 2016 (20.5-70.9R)  it was +50.4% R, so it "swung" +9.0 R between 2000 and 2016.

Benton County in 2000 was (50.9-41.4 D) or +9.7D. In 2016 (60.1-27.5 D), it was +32.6D, so it "swung" + 22.9 D.

Graphically:

Yellow= +0.1-2.5% Republican Swing
Fuscia=  + 2.6-5.0% Republican Swing
Violet= +5.1-10.0% Republican Swing
Red= +10.1-20% Republican Swing
Light Blue= 2.6-5.0% Democratic Swing
Sky Blue= 5.1-10.0% Democratic Swing
Blue= 10.1-20.0% Democratic Swing
Dark Blue/ Cornflower Blue- 20.1+% Democratic Swing

I'll follow up with an analysis on the next post.

[NOVA Green]

So what do the Oregon Results mean?

Initially, my thought was to test the concept that there was a huge swing away from the Democratic Party as a result of Trump's appeal to WWC Democrats, since obviously in Oregon this is a significant segment of the electorate, with an extremely small African-American population, heavily concentrated in a small handful of large Metro Areas, a significant and rapidly growing Asian-American population, but again somewhat concentrated in a relatively small number of counties, and a Latino-American population that although it is dispersed throughout the state is the largest ethnic "Minority" population in Oregon.

So why did I pick 2000 as a "baseline"? It was also an election where the Democratic Party lost after two terms of a successful incumbent.... there was a defection of support to 3rd Party candidates, which I suspect in Oregon included not only 2% Green voters, but also 2% Bernie Write-In ballots....

2000 was also an election, where the Republican Party had already made major grounds in WWC areas in Southern and Eastern Oregon, as well as in parts of Eastern Oregon, in a state where minor party candidates captured 18% of the vote in '96 and a higher share in '92.

So, in 2016 Trump managed to tie for an historically low share of Republican Votes in Oregon back in '96 (39.1%) and Clinton managed to achieve the lowest level of support for a Democratic nominee  since 2000, when Gore only captured 47.0% versus George W's 46.5%, when most of the minor party votes when to Nader and the Green Party.

1.) The Republican Party has now managed to achieve record low levels of support in two counties representing 33% of the Statewide Population (Multnomah and Washington). George Bush Jr was able to capture 27-28% in Multnomah in '04/'00). McCain/Romney were able to capture 20.6% in Mutnomah County. Trump was only able to capture 17.0% in a county with 20+% of the statewide voters.  Meanwhile, Democratic Party numbers increased from 63.5% in 2000, peaked at 76.7% in '08 and dropped to 73.3% in '16, with the vast majority of voter defection shifting to Greens and Bernie Write-Ins.

Washington County--- This is the true story of the collapse of the Republican Party coalition in Oregon, with over 10% of the statewide population in this County.... It experienced the most dramatic swings towards the Democratic Party in the state between 2000 and 2016 (+23.5% D Swing) and George HW Bush was able to capture 46% of the vote in 2000 and 2004, and the numbers dropped to 38% R in 2008 and 40% R in 2012, and completely collapsed to 31% R in 2016.....

It is a rapidly growing suburban county, that arguably is one of the most ethnically diverse counties in Oregon, and a growing concentration of professionals that either commute to work in the City, or have jobs with Intel or Nike, as well as smaller companies in "Silicon Forest".

2.) Clackamas County (~10% of RVs in Oregon).... Suburban/Exurban Portland. This is a county that honestly I expected to swing heavily towards Trump, since it is much more heavily White than Washington, and there is a significant chunk of the County that is rural/small-town....

Trump somehow managed to achieve the lowest level of support ever for a Republican candidate in decades (41.4%) versus Bush 2000 48% and Bush 2004 50.1%. Numbers dropped to a record low of 43.6% in '08 and 46.8% in '12. This is a county that regularly votes Republican for Statewide candidates.

3.) Upper Willamette Valley----

Yamhill has been swinging heavily Democratic from 2000-2016.... and although both Democratic and Republican GE numbers have dropped significantly in this time, the trendline still favors the Democratic nominee since Bush Jr managed to capture 54 and 57% respectively in '00/'04 and were able to hold onto 49/51% with McCain/Romney. Trump only captured 47.7%.

Polk--- See Yamhill above.... although Dem numbers collapsed heavier than Rep numbers in '16, again a ton of defections to Greens/ Bernie Write-Ins, etc...

Marion--- Similar to Polk County above.... Trump achieved a lower % than any Republican since before 2000, as did Clinton, with a huge chunk of defections of Green/Bernie Write-Ins.

4.) Coastal Oregon---

Obviously the big news is Columbia County flipping and voting Republican for the first time since 1928.  As a bastion of the New Deal Democratic Union coalition, this surprised a lot of people, but for anyone watching statewide politics was likely inevitable for the proper type of Republican candidate that ran on a Populist and economic protectionist platform, while also pledging to avoid foreign wars overseas....

Coos County was a similar story, but although it was not unexpected as Trump Country, the scale of the Democratic Party collapse was a giant exclamation mark---- Clinton only won 33.4% of the vote in a county where Obama was able to rebuild Dem numbers to 45 and 47% of the vote in '04/'00 respectively after an epic wipe-out in 2000 where Gore only captured 39.5% of the vote....

Nothing so dramatic in some of the other Coastal Counties (Tillamook/ Clatsop/Lincoln) but definitely warning signs for the Democratic Party statewide, if there these narrow trends continue, and some of the last bastions of rural Oregon Democrats are eliminated in our fishing towns and some of the last Union Timber Mills left in the state...

5.) Southern Oregon---

Not tons to say, since I was surprised at the lack of dramatic swings down here from 2000 to 2016 in a part of the state that I though Trump's message would resonate the best...

The main notable item is how static the level of Republican support has been in Jackson County where GHW Bush capured 54/55% of the vote in '00/'04 and basically under Obama Republican Percentages dropped to 48.6% ('08) and 50.5% ('12) and 49.3% under Trump, while at the same time the Democratic percentage went from 39.1% in '00 to 43.4% in '04, peaked at 48.6% in '08, dipped down to 45.8% in '12, and collapsed to 40.7% in '16.... Regardless, this is still a county to watch since the electorate is a bit more elastic than in many other counties in the state, and it appears that the Republican floor is still around 48-49% of the vote, despite Demographic changes in the county.

6.) Eastern Oregon---

Most notable are the dramatic shifts in Deschutes County between '00 and '16.... This county has been dramatically shifting to the Left from a +18 R county in '00 to a +14 R County in '04, to a +0.3 R County in '08, a +6.7 R County in '12, and a +3.6 R County in '16.....

Needless to say Republicans used to able to capture 55-56% of the vote not so many years ago, and ended up as a narrow McCain victory in '08, swung back towards Romney in '12, and now Trump somehow managed to only win with 46.6% of the PV.... Clinton managed to actually exceed Kerry's '04 numbers here (42.1%) and captured (43.0%) in '16, despite a significant defection to Greens, Libertarians, and Bernie Write-In votes....

Elsewhere---- some interesting numbers from the "Grain Belt" of Oregon, or the counties of Sherman/Gilliam/Morrow.... Not quite sure why there was such a dramatic flip between '00 and '16, and more significantly between '12 and '16, but I suspect it has more to do with Measure 97 being on the ballot, and many of these relatively well-off grain farmers felt that their taxes would go up significantly as a result of being high-Revenue and Lower-Margins Business Operations, and they took their anger out on Democrats not only statewide but nationally as well....

There are some other odd results.... Malheur County for example that is 10.2% Mormon, with a large Latino Population (Although many of this community is under a farmworker guestworker program and not US citizens).... Grant County that is only 5.7% Mormon, but has been an overwhelmingly Republican County for so long, but still it's hard to explain how an (80-15.3% Bush Jr-Gore County ended up being only a (74.0-17.0%) Trump County .

Some similar items going on in Wallowa County ( 76.4-19.5%) Bush Jr in '00 to a (65.2-25.6%) Trump County.... Looking at the numbers it appears that Obama was able to create a peak in '08 and Republicans dropped off dramatically between their '00 numbers, in a county where Ross Perot either won or place a close second back in '92 or '96 (Old man memory, and don't have the paid results at my finguretips).

[NOVA Green]

Cool thread.
Re: rural Dems, how much do you think it will hurt Democrats, the trends you hint at there?

Well, although I can't speak on behalf of "rural Democrats", I can definitively state that the position of the Democratic Party in huge swathes of rural and small-town Oregon suffered dramatically in the late '80s and early '90s, where the Timber Industry was starting to collapse as a result of decades of over-harvesting of publicly owned National Forest lands, and the Democrats appeared tone-deaf on the issue, and statewide Republicans were ably to successfully present it as a jobs vs environment issue.

Although Democrats ultimately were able to expand their margins in Metro-Portland, it was at a huge cost politically in Timber dependent communities throughout rural and small-town Oregon, where there were many jobs dependent on smaller locally owned mills, as well as good paying union jobs at mills that were part of some of the larger corporate outfits in the business....

Additionally, there were a large chunk of decent paying union jobs in places like Coos and Columbia County, where timber was exported overseas to Asia in the '80s from places like the Port of Coos Bay and Longview Washington (ILWU jobs).

Furthermore, the whole gun thing doesn't play so well in communities where hunting and fishing is a way of life, and it takes quite some time for the county sheriffs to show up if you have a bear our cougar in your backyard, let alone firing some warning shots if some random tweakers decide to raid your marijuana patch (Now totally legal in Oregon).....

The deal with Oregonians is that this isn't a hugely cultural conservative state, unlike many other parts of the country, there isn't a huge movement for "building walls" and discriminating against Latinos and Muslim-Americans, but in many parts of the state good paying jobs have been disappearing replaced with a mixture of tourism/service jobs, rural poverty, and Meth addiction, and although Trump tied with Dole for an historical low for a Republican in the state overall, Dems are losing some of their last rural blue-collar bastions in the state, even after seeing a wipeout between '88 and '00 in many of these communities, where Obama was able to bring many of these voters back.

Anyways, I could tell some personal stories about rural and small-town Oregon, but it's kind of the same deal that I started to see in Appalachian Regions twenty years ago, and now this election in huge chunks of the Upper-Midwest and "Frost Belt"....

People want their votes to be earned and not taken for granted, and unfortunately the most recent Democratic nominee didn't appear to want to fight for these voters and Trump did....  It was a huge strategic failure, and it will likely cost the Democratic Party well into the future, since a candidate like Bernie would have done very well in the rural and small-town communities of my home state, and still performed decently in the big city of Metro Portland.....

[NOVA Green]

Cool thread.
Re: rural Dems, how much do you think it will hurt Democrats, the trends you hint at there?

Well, although I can't speak on behalf of "rural Democrats", I can definitively state that the position of the Democratic Party in huge swathes of rural and small-town Oregon suffered dramatically in the late '80s and early '90s, where the Timber Industry was starting to collapse as a result of decades of over-harvesting of publicly owned National Forest lands, and the Democrats appeared tone-deaf on the issue, and statewide Republicans were ably to successfully present it as a jobs vs environment issue.

Although Democrats ultimately were able to expand their margins in Metro-Portland, it was at a huge cost politically in Timber dependent communities throughout rural and small-town Oregon, where there were many jobs dependent on smaller locally owned mills, as well as good paying union jobs at mills that were part of some of the larger corporate outfits in the business....

Additionally, there were a large chunk of decent paying union jobs in places like Coos and Columbia County, where timber was exported overseas to Asia in the '80s from places like the Port of Coos Bay and Longview Washington (ILWU jobs).

Furthermore, the whole gun thing doesn't play so well in communities where hunting and fishing is a way of life, and it takes quite some time for the county sheriffs to show up if you have a bear our cougar in your backyard, let alone firing some warning shots if some random tweakers decide to raid your marijuana patch (Now totally legal in Oregon).....

The deal with Oregonians is that this isn't a hugely cultural conservative state, unlike many other parts of the country, there isn't a huge movement for "building walls" and discriminating against Latinos and Muslim-Americans, but in many parts of the state good paying jobs have been disappearing replaced with a mixture of tourism/service jobs, rural poverty, and Meth addiction, and although Trump tied with Dole for an historical low for a Republican in the state overall, Dems are losing some of their last rural blue-collar bastions in the state, even after seeing a wipeout between '88 and '00 in many of these communities, where Obama was able to bring many of these voters back.

Anyways, I could tell some personal stories about rural and small-town Oregon, but it's kind of the same deal that I started to see in Appalachian Regions twenty years ago, and now this election in huge chunks of the Upper-Midwest and "Frost Belt"....

People want their votes to be earned and not taken for granted, and unfortunately the most recent Democratic nominee didn't appear to want to fight for these voters and Trump did....  It was a huge strategic failure, and it will likely cost the Democratic Party well into the future, since a candidate like Bernie would have done very well in the rural and small-town communities of my home state, and still performed decently in the big city of Metro Portland.....

Could Ds handled the issue more deftly and lost next to no votes in Metro Portland?

Well it's quite a bit more complicated than the Reader's Digest version that I posted, and it would be a totally simplistic and reductionist argument that somehow Southern and Eastern Oregon shifted heavily Republican solely because of arguments regarding Natural Resource based issues. For example one of the leaders of the Democratic Progressive caucus Peter Defazio is extremely popular, even outside of the "Liberal stronghold" of Eugene. Jeff Merkley Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley grew up in Myrtle Creek (Town of 3.5k) and went to Elementary School in Roseburg (Pop 21k) and a historic mill town....

The "Timber Wars" were mainly focused on the harvesting of Old Growth Timber, where certain species were moved into the list of Endangered Species, most significantly the Spotted Owl, at the same time commercial and sports fishermen were experiencing an historic decline in Salmon runs, as a result of logging practices that didn't create a buffer between logging and Mountain creeks, streams, and rivers that created an increase in temperature levels and silt build up that caused a perilous decline in Salmon levels.

What the Republican Party was able to successfully do in Southern Oregon (And many parts of rural Oregon) was frame the issue as "radical environmentalists" versus "jobs" and claim the endangered species act and government regulation was responsible for the decline of the Forest Products sector (>40% of state GDP in '80 and >20% of direct/indirect employment).

When Bill Clinton was elected he rammed through  the controversial "Option Nine" regulation, that satisfied nobody, and ultimately created a scenario where Al Gore and John Kerry almost lost Oregon in 2000 and 2004 because of a defection of urban environmentalists, while also not fully protecting timber dependent cities and counties from the fallout of declining timber revenue, that was also used to fund local schools and tax dollars for other social services.....

http://projectcensored.org/17-clintons-option-9-plan-a-resounding-defeat-for-ancient-forests/

http://www.mailtribune.com/special/20160424/still-looking-for-truce-in-timber-wars

Meanwhile, we have an epidemic of Crystal Meth addiction and abuse in most of small town and rural Oregon, and both the Democratic and Republican parties are considered to be asleep at the wheel....

It's a different but similar scene like we are seeing now in places like Northern Maine, Appalachia, and other parts of our Great Nation, but as a parent that has seen children fall into the trap of a "no hope" and "no future generation", I am definitely concerned. I do not believe one iota that Trump has the answers, and at a statewide level Oregon is taxing legal marijuana with a chunk of money going into drug treatment programs for hard drug addicts, but personally I think we need the equivalent of a "Modern New Deal" or "Modern Great Society" that invests resources into both urban and rural communities to expand educational/job opportunities, creates incentives for economic investment, and increases taxes on large corporations to provide funding for a 21st Century "War on Poverty".

These issues are beyond politics.... Trump claims he will bring all sorts of jobs back to America, Clinton claimed that she had a plan to recover Coal Mining jobs in Appalachia.....

My avatar is now Socialist after the '16 General Election, until I can see a candidate actually step forward and deal with the very real issues that we have when it comes to rural communities and poverty, as well as similar issues in the large cities and suburbs of America.

[NOVA Green]

What happened in Columbia County? I would have assumed its proximity to Portland would have prevented a result like that.

Although Columbia County is technically part of the Portland-Vancouver MSSA, the reality is that most residents don't commute into Portland to work, and it certainly doesn't resemble any definition of an "Exurban" County, although there is a population of South County residents around Scappoose-Warren and St Helens that commute to Portland or Vancouver.

Instead, there are many residents that commute to work in Longview, Washingon (Cowlitz County) where there was a major ILWU strike against an international consortium that was hiring Non-Union cheap subcontractors from out of the area, despite receiving $200 Million in Tax breaks as part of "sweetheart economic development deal". It's a complicated story, but this resonated in Cowlitz and Columbia Counties, which had some of the biggest county level swings in Washington & Oregon respectively....

Obama outperformed his national average in both of these deeply Union counties in both '08 and '12, although in statewide elections, Republicans have been successful for lower down-ballot election races over the past few decades.

The point is that culturally this is a part of WWC America with a deeply engrained Union and economic progressive character, and although there was a huge swing towards Trump, it was caused more by a dramatic collapse of Democratic voters going Green, Libertarian, and writing in Bernie, as well as some Democratic Union voters crossing the line to vote Trump, because in their eyes he was a least talking about unfair trade agreements gutting well paying union jobs, while the Obama Administration didn't do much of anything bcs they couldn't and it was more of an NLRB type issue (although Obama is still fairly popular out there), and Clinton was definitely not seen as trustworthy on trade issues.

Bernie would have decimated Trump in Columbia/Cowlitz County no question.

See link below for history of the 2011 historic strike in the Port of Longview Washington (Just right across the river from some of the larger population centers in Columbia County).

http://www.thestand.org/2011/09/heres-why-longshore-workers-are-so-angry/

[NOVA Green]

We are now starting to see some precinct level results trickle in from Oregon, and I've been holding off on Multnomah County so far because of the complexity and volume of data, and haven't quite had the time to crunch the numbers in detail yet....

We do have have what are likely to be final precinct level results from Curry County Oregon, which is a small county of 22.4k residents located on the SW Oregon Coast right across the border from California.

It is a traditionally Republican County in SW Oregon, that although it shares certain similarities with neighboring Coos and Josephine Counties in Oregon, and Del Norte County right over the border, also has several significant differences.

The economy is heavily dependent on fishing, timber, tourism, and health care services for the active labor force, however the household income level and home values are higher than neighboring counties, and there is a higher rate of educational attainment than neighboring counties (22.3% with a Bachelors or higher), but still significantly lower than the national average (29.3%). Some of this is likely the result of a generational gap in college degrees, combined with a higher than average level of Veterans (14.6), including a significant population of Vietnam- Era vets that didn't have the luxary of college deferments during the War in 'Nam.

Over 32% of the population is 65+, and 55% is over the age of 50. It is an overwhelmingly White Non-Latino County (88.7%), with a small but rapidly growing Latino community (6.8% in '14) that are increasingly taking on local jobs to support the aging retiree population, as well as tourist service jobs in the food and hospitality sectors.

Politically, this is a county where the Republican section of the vote has hovered at 57% since 2000, with a dip to 54% in '08, and a slight uptick in both '12 and '16. The Democratic segment of the vote has oscillated much more dramatically from a low of 35.3% in 2000, where Nader took 5.3% of the vote, with a peak of 42.4% in '08 and a dramatic dip to 34.0% in '16 with Clinton as the nominee.

Although these numbers might appear to indicate a dramatic surge towards Trump, like I said he was only able to tie G.W Bush numbers from '04 and only improve 0.8% from Romney's '12 performance.

Rather it is a collapse of the Democratic vote towards 3rd Party candidates that explains why the County went from +19.9% Republican in '12 to +27.3% Republican in '16.

Now Curry County was not a particularly strong Bernie County unlike the rest of Oregon....  (50.6-45.6% Bernie-Clinton) however it was an extremely strong Trump County (75.9 Trump- 12.9 Cruz- 8.8 Kasich).

The largest City in the County is Brookings (Pop 6.6k) but the Brookings "Metro Area" meaning smaller communities that didn't want to be annexed by the City, accounts for 13k residents or 58% of the County Population.

Brookings is the most Republican of the three municipalities in the County voting +20% R in '12 and +28% R in '16, with only a net 0.7% growth for the Republican numbers between McCain '12 and Trump '16, and the rest caused by a dramatic dropoff in Democratic support...

Gold Beach (2.3k)- This is interesting as it had a much larger swing from (53-43 McCain) to (57-34 Trump).... I'm a bit more confused on this one, since it is less of a "White-Working-Class" town than Brookings in many ways (No timber mill at the heart of town), only 22.5% of the population are retirees. I'm suspecting more of an anomaly with a massive swing towards Obama because of his personality and character, and a rejection of Clinton the candidate, but I'll need to look into this in more detail.

Port Orford (1.1k)-  This is a small town which is the most Democratic city in the County (51-47 Obama 2012) and (46-44 Clinton 2012), so essentially a significant drop of support for both parties and a dramatic increase in 3rd Party numbers.... Basically more of a small tourist town with a few art galleries and local shops and restaurants, and with some significant local Oregon History and a Lighthouse and Coast Guard station, in a relatively dangerous section of the Oregon Coast.....

Ok---- Will need to follow up shortly with more details, including some of the "rural" parts of the county....

[NOVA Green]

Now that we finally are starting to see some final precinct level numbers roll in from Oregon, I started to crunch some numbers for Marion County, which is the 5th most populous county in the state (315k as of the 2010 census), and is in many regards representative of "down-state" Oregon (Basically once you take Metro PDX out of the mix).

The County is traditionally a Republican leaning County, that has historically been a bit of a bell-weather in terms of close statewide races, and has only voted Democrat for President twice since 1964....   (1996: Clinton 45.3- Dole 43.2 and 2008: Obama 49.6- McCain 47.4).

Both the major party candidates managed to hit their lowest levels of the vote since 1992, with a 4.6% dropoff for Clinton over Obama '12 numbers and a 3.7% drop-off from Romney '12 numbers. Meanwhile minor party and write-in candidates captured 10.5% of the county vote.

This is within a context of a record high number of voters, and easy access to voting with Oregon's new automatic voter registration law....

The County is a mix of Urban (Salem-Keizer), Exurban (Woodburn), Small Town, and Rural, with economy based upon a diverse mix of Public Sector employment (Salem), Timber, Agriculture, and Retail....

Marion County is overwhelmingly Anglo "Non-Latino Whites", but with a relatively large (For Western Oregon) and rapidly growing Latino population (~24% as of the 2010 Census).

Salem largest city (155k) typically accounts for ~40% of the County votes, and is a moderately Democratic City in a Republican County, but home to a strong Progressive Democratic Base and 20.3% Latino (2010)

2012>2016 (2016 Total Votes- 55k (+7.5k). Margins (50.0-38.8% Clinton) vs 2012 (54.4-42.2 Obama)..... Total Dem % narrowly dropped but Dem total vote margins go from +5.7k to +6.7k....

It appears that there was a Latino surge, but also a significant defection to 3rd Party candidates and Bernie Write-In ballots....

Keizer: Second largest city (36.5k). Typically a moderately leaning Republican Blue Collar suburb and bedroom community of Salem.... (2016: 17.5k Total Votes (+1.9k). Margins (48.8-39.4 Trump) vs (52.7-44.7 Romney).... Marginal -1.2% Dem drop on the margins.

Woodburn 3rd largest city (24.1k). Almost 60% Latino and is a mix of exurban commuters, workers in the local food processing plants, and retail work. (2016: 6.1k Votes (+1.0k). (51.1-39.9 Clinton) versus (52.2-45.3 Obama). Complete collapse of Republican numbers combined with a minor defection of Democrats to 3rd party candidates and write-ins.

Silverton 4th largest city (9.2k). A mix of a quaint local historical small town, combined with being right next door to the beautiful Silver Springs area, so a bit touristy, but not particularly posh nor pretentious. Total Vote went from 4.3k (50.8-45.4 Obama) to 4.9k (45.2-41.8 Clinton).... Again higher drop-off of Democratic support to 3rd Party candidates....

Where Trump was able to make up the numbers in Marion County, was a much larger swing in Rural Marion County (Based upon the Urban Growth Boundary concept you don't see the same type of urban sprawl as in many other states).... so a bit easier to define "urban" vs "rural"....

Cities/ Towns (71% of '15 vote): 84.7k>97.1k ('12-16). (49.9-46.8 Obama) to (45.3-42.8 Clinton)

Rural Areas: 35.7k>39.7k ('12 to '16) from (57.5-39.6 Romney) to (55.0-34.6 Trump).

One additional item to note is that in addition to the swings in rural areas, the most dramatic swings in smaller towns occurred in smaller timber communities such as Gates, Mill City and Jefferson, as well as smaller towns with a moderate, but smaller than county average and growing Latino population such as Stayton, Aumsville, Turner, and Donald), and even there it was more a case of drop-off in Dem support rather than an increase in Republican numbers....

My initial assessment looking at results from Marion County Oregon, even in places where I would expect to see a swing towards Trump is not that there was a huge number of Obama '12 voters that switched to Trump '16 voters, even in the places that I was most expecting to see that phenomenon.

The only cities/towns in the County where I saw a net increase in Republican percentages were:

Gates, Oregon (Pop 220)
Mill City, Oregon (Pop 120)
Jefferson, Oregon (Pop 1,320)
Turner, Oregon (Pop 960)
Donald, Oregon (Pop 460).

The real story appears to be more a significant decline in rural and small-town Democratic voters that voted Green, wrote-In Bernie Sanders, or voted Gary Johnson (I know a fair amount of Libertarians out here that are perfectly fine depending their small legal MJ fields against a Trump overreach---- lest all of y'all Republican avatars get your panties in a wad claiming that Johnson voters were really Trump voters, just like I can't, won't and would never want to claim that the 4-5% of Oregonians that voted Green of wrote in Bernie Sanders were secret Hillary Clinton fans.... fair 'nuff?

[NOVA Green]

Updated to include Benton County Precinct Results:

Benton County is a relatively smaller population county (86k in the 2010 Census) and is 87.1% White, 5.2% Asian, and 6.4% Latino with a Median household income of $48k/Yr and Family income of $71.8k/Yr, both above the statewide averages.

The economy is heavily dependent upon the educational sector Oregon State University, one of the largest Universities in the State, but also Hi-Tech (A large Hewlett Packard Inc campus is located here), Medical Sector (Good Samaritan is a top class regional medical provider), as well as to a lesser extent in rural areas agriculture and timber related activities.

It has been a reliably Democratic County starting in 1988, but has been increasingly shifting strongly Democratic since 2004.... It wasn't very long ago when Republicans could regularly capture 40-41% of the vote (2000 & 2004), and Democrats only garnered 51% in 2000....

2000: 50.9 Gore- 41.4 George W (+9.7)
2004: 58.0 Kerry- 40.4 George W (+17.6)
2008: 64.3 Obama- 32.8 McCain (+31.5)
2012: 62.0 Obama- 33.5 Romney (+28.5)
2016: 60.1 Clinton- 27.5 Trump (+32.6)


The County is dominated by Corvallis (54.5k 2010) which is 83.8% White, 7.2% Asian, 7.4% Latino, and the household and family incomes are lower than the County average, likely distorted by an extremely large student population. Although 64% of the County Population is located in Corvallis, it only accounts for 58-59% of the County vote, because of lower student voter turnout-levels, as well as many undergrads registered to vote in their home counties, cities, states, and Native countries.

Since 2004, the Republican percentage has been collapsing, to a point where it is barely over 50% of George W. Bushes numbers.

2004: Kerry 60.5- Bush 32.8
2008: Obama 72.5- McCain 24.8
2012: Obama 69.4- Romney 24.7
2016: Clinton 69.5- Trump 17.8

Between 2004 and 2016, Democrats have increased their percentage by +4.0% and Republicans have lost 15.0% of their vote base, and Republican votes in Corvallis which is a Agricultural, Forestry, and Science school are looking almost as rare as Republican votes in Ashland (Southern Oregon State University and Liberal Arts and Art School).

Although neither major Party candidate was particularly popular in Corvallis (63.2-36.4 Sanders) and only (48.6 Trump- 28.5 Kasich- 17.8% Cruz) when Clinton virtually had the nominated cinched up and Trump's opponents had already dropped out of the race, it appears to have hurt Trump much more than Clinton, who narrowly improved over Obama's 2012 percentage, despite a large number of Green and Bernie Write-In ballots, and even potentially some Libertarians that would have preferred Bernie to Trump).

Corvallis Precincts:

COR-01: Is located in SW-Corvallis and has a relatively low student population and consists mainly of owner-occupied homes and is an older established upper Middle-Class precinct right next to the Country Club. It went from 59-40 Kerry to 66-23 Clinton in '16 for the 2nd largest swing of any of the (9) precincts in Corvallis. It was only a (56-44 Bernie) precinct in the primaries and (47 Trump- 31 Kasich- 18 Cruz).

COR-02: Downtown Corvallis is one of the poorest precincts in the City, that includes a mix of Seniors living on fixed incomes in assisted housing, young people living in houses that have been divided into rooms that have become "mini apartments", and college students being warehoused into overpriced small rises where they are paying $1,200/month to share a bathroom and kitchen with four others, as part of the pressure on housing prices. It has been a reliably Democratic part of the City even going back to 1984, and was (74-24 Kerry) swung (78-18 Obama '08), was (73-18 Obama '12) and was (71-13 Clinton '16).... This was a 78% Sanders precinct and (46 Trump- 24 Kasich- 26 Cruz). Trump actually achieved a lower percentage than the 3rd Party and write-in candidates combined....

COR-03: "Southtown" Corvallis. This has historically been the most blue-collar working-class part of the city, even when the rents started to skyrocket in the city in the 1990s, and a place where a working family could still afford to rent or buy a home, way back in the days....

Basically a mix of starter homes, mobile home parks, and inexpensive apartments (Including the infamous "Zoo" where the Police installed a Community Policing station back in the early '90s to address an increase in both drug related activity and assaults). The student population has been growing, but less dramatically than in many other neighborhoods, and it is also recently home to a relatively large Latino population and almost 50% of the student population at the elementary school are of Latino backgrounds.

This was a former stronghold of the Oregon Citizens Alliance (OCA) which was an offshoot of the Republican Party that focused on LGBT and Anti-Abortion items, because they believed that Oregon Republicans were too Moderate on social issues, and tried to create a populist wedge issue in WWC communities throughout Oregon.

2004: (63.3-34.6 Kerry).... 2008 (70.1-28.5 Obama)... 2012 (68-25 Obama)... 2016 (66-19 Clinton)

COR-04: Basically settled around Oregon State University. Heavily undergrad and grad student based, including voters registered in the dorms of OSU.

It actually hasn't swung as heavily Democratic as many of the more "Townie" precincts, basically because the Republican share of the vote was already so low to start with from '04 onwards.

2004: (70-28 Kerry).... 2008 (76-22 Obama)...2012 (69-24 Obama)...2016 (71-17 Clinton).

So again similar pattern, Republican numbers have collapsed, and a ton of Millennials shifted towards Green, Libertarian, and Bernie Write-In ballots for an offset.

COR-05: Old established "alternative" area with a mix of established homeowners, grad students, and apartments both close to OSU and also Corvallis High School. Has long been a Democratic stronghold since the '80s.... (77-23 Bernie).

2004: (76-23 Kerry)... 2008 (82-15 Obama)...2012 (77-17 Obama)...2016 (74-12 Clinton).

Again significant drop-off of Democratic support to the Greens/Libs/Bernie Write-Ins, and the lowest support ever for a Republican in this neighborhood....

COR-06---- Older established Middle-Class area between Grant and Circle where Republicans used to be competitive.

2004: (67-31 Kerry).... 2008: (73-24 Obama).... 2012: (71-22 Obama)... 2016 (69-17 Clinton).

COR-07: This precinct is basically centered around Witham Hill and is predominately owner-occupied houses with the exception of some apartment complexes up the Hill, and is basically older Middle-Class, with some really nice Upper-Middle Class homes scattered on the foothills.

It actually has the largest Dem-Rep swing from '04 to '16 of any precinct in the city (+10.4% Dem- and -19.5% Rep) !!!

There are a fair number of Oregon State faculty that bought houses here several decades ago, because of the close proximity to campus, a large number of whom would frequently vote for moderate Republicans of the Oregon variety, not to mention Junior faculty, and grad students/

2004: (66-33 Kerry).... 2008: (73-25 Obama).... 2012 (74-20 Obama)... 2016 (76-13 Clinton).

COR-8- NW Hills---- This has historically been the most solidly Republican part of Corvallis.... These are the neighborhoods where the Doctors, Lawyers, HP Execs and Engineers would buy their homes, both because of proximity to HP and the Hospitals, but also because there was a major boom in new home construction in the '80s and '90s, and you could build or buy a nice custom home on a lot on the edge of the hills North of town, with a decent view of the City and the West Hills as an added perk.

Not as dramatic collapse as in COR-07, and only slightly less than in COR-01 (Country Club) but still telling about the complete collapse of the Republican Party among the Professional Class in much of Oregon.

2004: (64-35 Kerry).... 2008 (72-27 Obama)....2012 (68-28 Obama).... 2016 (71-20 Clinton)!!!

COR-9--- NE Corvallis.... Older established neighborhood with a mix of '50s/'60s ranch and up closer to the hospital '70s ranch, and a large senior mobile home park, mixed in a few older apartments. Not a huge student population, and the population is a bit older than in many other neighborhoods in the city.

Used to be a moderately Republican neighborhood, because of the prestige of being proximate to what was considered the "best" Middle School in the City, but like the rest of Corvallis has been abandoning their Republican Party that doesn't speak for them anymore.

2004: (58-40 Kerry)... 2008 (66-31 Obama)...2012 (63-31 Obama).... 2016 (61-24 Obama).

I'll follow-up with another post on precincts in Benton County outside of Corvallis since I don't want to run out of posting space  (Part II)

[NOVA Green]

Benton County Precinct Data (Part II)....

Ok.... so now that we have established that although the 59% of voters in the City of Corvallis, swung narrowly towards Clinton between '12 and '16 69.5% vs 69.4% (+0.1%), Republican numbers dropped significantly during the same period from 24.7% to 17.8% (-6.9%), with much of the gap going to Green, Bernie Write-Ins and Libertarian, there is still 41% of the county vote unaccounted for.

The second largest City in the County is Albany, although the vast majority of that City lies over the river in Linn County, there is a community of some 6k in "North Albany" which used to be an unincorporated area until some 20 years ago, when they elected to be annexed by Albany.

The voting percentage of North Albany within Benton County has climbed from 8.3% (2004) to 10.2% (2016) and is essentially a Middle/Upper-Middle Class bedroom community of single-family homes where people commute to Corvallis, Albany, or Salem.

It used to be a heavily Republican community (~70-30 R) in 1988, and although it is still a Republican part of the county, is much less monolithically so than it used to be.

2004: (59-40 George W.)... 2008 (52-46 McCain)...2012 (52-44 Romney)....2016 (45-43 Trump).

So basically, one of the most Republican parts of Albany actually swung heavily Democratic in 2016, despite both parties losing votes to 3rd Party candidates and write-ins.

Between 2004 and 2016 the Democrats actually gained a net +3.4% and the Republicans lost a net 14.2%.... This is actually likely the lowest % that the Republican Party has achieved in North Albany since 1992, and quite likely even well before that, considering the Perot factor....

Philomath is the 3rd largest city within Benton County (Pop ~5k) and accounting for about 5% of the county votes. It's an historic mill town, with a giant stump of Old Growth sitting to the entrance to town that says "Welcome to Philomath".

The city and its history are long entwined with the Timber industry, and at one point there were about 12 mills in and around the vicinity of town, although there are only two yet remaining.

It used to be considered the classic example of a Pacific Northwest mill town, where the mills were all family owned and established, workers were well paid and frequently unionized, and the town hit a rough patch in the early '90s at the peak of the "Timber Wars".

There was actually a movie made about Philomath....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clear_Cut:_The_Story_of_Philomath,_Oregon

Although it is a city that used to lean slightly Republican, there was also a strong Democratic presence as well, and a place that I would expect to see a potential "Trump effect".

Bernie decimated Clinton in the '16 Dem Primaries (66-33) and on the Republican side Trump etched out a narrow majority (51.1 Trump, 22.7 Kasich, 22.0 Cruz).

However the actual 2016 GE results were:

2004 (52-47 George W).... 2008 (54-42 Obama).... 2012 (56-38 Obama)... 2016 (48-36 Clinton).

So basically, once again Trump achieved the lowest level of support a Republican has achieved in Philomath since 1984, and there was a significant drop-off of Democratic support to 3rd Party candidates and Write-Ins (Bernie).

So where to find the elusive Trump Democrats in Benton County, if not in Philomath or North Albany?

There were a small handful of precincts I found where there actually *was* a Trump effect, as opposed to a drop-off of Democratic votes towards 3rd Party candidates.

Monroe--- (Pop 617).... A small town halfway between Eugene and Corvallis, where 38% of homes have someone 60+ living with them. It has a rapidly growing Latino population in 2010 (16.2%) up from 10% in 2000.

2004: (51.3-48.0 George W)... 2008 (51-43 Obama)....2012 (50-48 Obama)... 2016 (58-32 Trump).

So obviously there is a pretty significant chunk of Obama voters that voted Trump here. Not sure why, but it was Trump's best precinct in the County in the Primary (73%).

Alsea---- Rural area in SW Benton County. One of the most evangelical precincts in the county going back decades. Is a fairly rural area, with an aging population and a decent chunk of former loggers, and current hunters mixed in.

However, there is still a decent Democratic base out here, and in some ways it looks like the spike of support for Obama was an exception and Trump was the reset....

2004: (62-37 George W).... 2008 (50-43 McCain)... 2012 (52-40 Romney)....2016 (58-31 Trump)!!!

So, again another area where it does appear that there was a Trump effect to some extent.

Monroe (Rural)---- Areas surrounding Monroe and stretching West.... is basically a mix of agricultural farms, some X-Mas tree farms, people that want to be left alone, and essentially you have traditionally Republican flat agricultural land closer to the Willamette river, and populist Democratic areas up towards the hills.

2004: (55-44 George W.)....2008 (51-45 McCain)...2012 (53-43 Romney)...(55-34 Trump)!!!

So again, it looks like some of the truly rural parts of the county swung heavily towards Trump, despite some historically strong Democratic numbers.

But then, these are only a few small rural precincts with wild swings, and there is another large rural precinct with only slight swings, namely as a result of a significant decrease in Democratic support.

NW Benton County is again a mixture of forestry, agriculture, and "alternative agriculture" with a not uncommon rural Oregon Hippie-Redneck mix, where guns are a way of life, and the kids listen to everything from Country to the Grateful Dead, and good old Rock N' Roll....

2004: (50.1-48.1 George W.).... 2008 (54-43 Obama)....2012 (51-44 Obama)...2016 (45-44 Clinton).

So basically here the Republican numbers collapsed since George W. and have held steady since with a huge spike towards Obama, and then a drop-off to 3rd Party and Bernie Write-Ins.

[NOVA Green]

Shifting attention to Clatsop County (Pop 37k as of 2010)....

It has been a solidly Democratic County since the New Deal, voting Republican only twice (For General Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956) and although it continued that tradition in 2016, it was by the smallest margin since before the 2000 election....

Although, it shares similarities with neighboring Columbia County that voted Republican for the first time since 1928, there are also significant differences between these two counties, and yet there was still a discernible shift to the Right.

Clatsop County has a long and proud history, from the Lewis & Clark expedition of 1805 and 1806, the foundation of the first US settlement on the Pacific Coast, and the only mainland area to experience a direct Japanese assault during WW II.

It is a county steeped in a proud American military tradition and history, with an economy traditionally based upon fishing and forestry being gradually sublimated by lower wage tourism and retail jobs, and a gradually aging population, although not generally a heavily retiree region of the state.

Demographically, it is overwhelmingly Anglo with Latinos the largest minority population at 7.7% (2010) and has a relatively low household and family income compared to the national and statewide average.

Politically, although it has long been a rural Democratic stronghold in Oregon, it is a bit ornery and tends to give a higher than average percentage of support to 3rd Party and protest candidates.

2000: (50.4-42.2 Gore) +8.2 D
2004: (54.2- 44.0 Kerry) +10.2 D
2008: (57.7-38.8 Obama)  +18.9  D
2012: (55.3- 40.7 Obama) +14.6 D
2016: (47.0-41.4 Clinton) +6.6D

Where did these swings happen and is it a temporary phenomenon or a sign of a complete collapse of Democratic support even in historically rural Democratic New Deal counties?

In order to examine those questions, it is necessary to examine the precinct level reports, where we just received the official numbers from 2016 and compare against historical data....

Official Cities within the County:

1.) Astoria (25-26% of county voters)- The largest city in the county with a population of 9.5k with a significant number of jobs tied to the Port of Astoria, fishing related activities, a regional Community College, a vibrant small business community, as well as jobs tied to the hospitality sector (dining & lodgings), as well as the County Seat.

2000: (54 Gore- 35 George W. - 7 Nader) +19 Gore
2004: (56-41 Kerry)  +15 Kerry
2008: (65-32 Obama) +33 Obama
2012: (64-31 Obama) +33 Obama
2016: (59-29 Clinton) +30 Clinton

Although clearly there was a significant drop-off from Obama '08 and '12 support, Trump managed to under-perform George W. by 6-12% respectively, although Clinton's vote drop-off went to Bernie Write-Ins/Greens/Libertarians

2.) Seaside (14-15% of County Voters)-  A traditional tourist destination for Portlandiers, with a nice wide stretch of beaches, plenty of hotel rooms for all price levels, and generally an affordable and not overly pricey place for a weekend getaway even outside of the Summertime.

Most of the local jobs are directly tied to tourism and the hospitality sector, and the local economy is still recovering from the Great Recession as a result.

2000: (53 Gore- 37 George W- 5 Nader) +16 D
2004: (56-41 Kerry)  +15 D
2008: (61-36 Obama) +25 D
2012: (58-38 Obama) +20 D
2016: (50-38 Clinton  +12 D

So again similar trend, huge defection of Obama '08 and '12 voters to 3rd Party candidates and Trump basically holding onto an average Republican vote level.

3.) Warrenton (13% of county voters).... Essentially a sister-city of Astoria that used to be heavily dependent on fishing and local mill jobs, that is rapidly growing (8% of county voters in 2000 to 13% in '16) as the major retail center of Clatsop County, because its land area allows for larger box stores. Many of the local residents now work in low-paying local retail jobs, although with a trade-off that it is a bit more affordable than some other parts of the area. It's the kind of city where almost everyone is wearing hunting/fishing gear in November...

2000: (48 Gore- 44 George W- 4 Nader) +4D
2004: (51-46 George W) +5 R
2008: (48-48* McCain)- +0.2R
2012: (49-47 Romney) +2 R
2016: (51-37 Trump) +14 R

Now here we have obviously found a place where there is a segment of Obama/Trump voters, since the variance (10% drop in Dem support from 2000!) can't be explained solely as a result of Democratic leaning voters going for 3rd Party candidates when Gore, Kerry, and Obama all performed quite well. It is rather a clear repudiation of Clinton as a candidate, rather than an endorsement of Trump, who after all only managed to match George W. 's 2004 numbers here.

4.) There are two other cities in Clatsop County:

Cannon Beach- Artsy and pricey small Coastal town that is heavily Democratic.... It gave 10% of their votes to Nader in 2000 and although Republicans managed to get 34% in '04 and 33% in '12, Trump still managed to beat McCain's low of 27.6% in '08 and only captured the vote of 25.5% of city residents.

Gearhart- Basically a small upper middle-class community a few miles North of Seasise along the Coastal Hwy generally has a relatively consistent 38-40% Republican base regardless of candidate, and Dem numbers will fluctuate more significantly in years like 2000 and 2016 when a lot of individuals vote for Green/3rd Party candidates.

5.) Rural Clatsop County (Outside of Recognized cities) account for a whopping 37% of the County Population ('16) down from 42% in (2000), and include huges swathes of land from rural SE and NE Clatsop County, to rural areas outside of some of the large "cities" in the county.

Here is where you start to see the real swings....

2000: (44 Gore- 47 George W- 5 Nader) +3 R
2004: (49-48 George W) +1 R
2008: (53-44 Obama) +9 D
2012: (50-47 Obama) +3 D
2016: (50-39 Trump) +11 R


Although I could go through precinct by precinct, of the (17) rural precincts Obama won 10/17 in 2012, and generally by much larger margins than Romney. Clinton only managed to carry 3/17 of these rural precincts.... Kerry managed to carry 7/17 of these, at a time when the County was swinging towards George W. in '04, and even most of those precincts that Kerry lost, he lost by small margins....

The silver lining here is that these rural Democratic voters are not gone for good, just like many traditional rural Democrats in places like Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa are not gone for good, so long as the Democratic Party does a better job in terms of not only image, but substance as well, in giving us real bread and butter reasons as to why the Democratic Party is worth supporting.

[NOVA Green]

So far, I have reviewed precinct level results and commented on four different counties in Oregon, deliberately excluding Metro Portland, until I can obtain a final official canvass of the votes with precinct level results.

The four counties that I have covered to date include:

1.) Curry County--- Traditionally Republican and heavily retiree county on the SW Oregon Coast that also has a relatively high education and income level compared to elsewhere in Southern Oregon. Most of the change in vote margins result from a dramatic collapse in Democratic support and only a marginal gain for Trump over Romney '12 numbers.

2.) Marion County--- One of the largest Metro areas in "downstate" Oregon and is a mix of urban and rural, with both a significant WWC component as well as a large and rapidly growing Latino population. Both candidates saw a significant drop-off in party support between '12 and '16, although there was a marginal swing towards Trump in rural areas, and even more so in a few traditional timber towns in Eastern Marion County.

3.) Benton County--- Home to a large and educated "knowledge sector" economy and complete collapse of Republican support in the largest city, significant collapse of Republican support in what used to be an overwhelmingly Republican stronghold (North Albany), and some dramatic swings towards Trump in some rural parts of Southern and Southwestern Benton County.

4.) Clatsop County--- Historically natural resource based county, huge collapse of Democratic Party voters to 3rd Party candidates in their historic strongholds of Astoria & lesser extent of Seaside, a huge swing of Obama/Trump voters in Warrenton, and most significantly RURAL Clatsop moving hard against the Democrats....

Ok--- Wanted to give a summary of findings to date, and now will provide an update from another county.....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #5: Coos County

If anyone is interested in writing a history of the decline of Democratic Presidential Voting Patterns among White-Working Class communities with a traditional Northern New Deal Union background, this should be ground-zero as part of your case study....

Coos County is a place that was once a small remote inaccessible county in SW Oregon forged in the Blood, Sweat, and Tears of of the New Deal, WW II era where the American Middle-Class was built.

In the 1930/1940s, there was a major Port and shipbuilding program constructed that provided all of the Minesweepers and Tugboats for the defense of the Western Coast of the United States. The CCC had already helped the county during the Great Depression by providing trails and fighting forest fires in heavily forested region, as well as sales of locally produced dairy to CCC volunteers.

After WW II, the Port infrastructure of Coos Bay facilitated the export of high quality timber from the region to communities throughout the United States during the peak of the Oregon Timber industry, circa 1950-1975.

It was also the second largest dairy producing county in the State, in rural farmlands outside of places like Bandon and Coquille, where farmers would run Co-Ops to pool resources to share resources and avoid undercutting pricing from other producers.

The local economies dependence on forest products exacerbated the impact of the Reagan Recession of the early '80s, where the economic policies intended to combat inflation created a massive decline in new housing starts, and instead producers moved in "chip milling" to export local timber overseas to Asia, rather than sell higher value products to domestic consumers.

As the Oregon economy that was slowly starting to recover by the late '80s, it was hit with another issue.... rampant over-harvesting of forests had created a shortage of quality "Old Growth" logs for local mills, and an urban based environmental movement was starting to challenge logging of the last remaining strains of Old Growth on publicly owned lands, which disproportionately hit smaller family owned mills that couldn't afford to retool to process 2nd and 3rd growth timber, nor would have had easy access to markets to sell those products, even if they could compete with the larger timber companies....

So.... politically Coos County was solidly Democratic up until 2000, not even backing Nixon in 1972 (Although it barely voted for Reagan in 1980 and 1984)....

2000: (53-40 George W.) +13 R
2004: (55-43 George W) +12 R
2008: (50-47 McCain) +3 R
2012: (51-45 Romney) +6 R
2016: (57-33 Trump)  +24 R

These numbers clearly indicate that there is a huge number of Obama '08 and Obama '12 voters that switched over to support Trump.

Where did this swing occur and why?

1.) Coos Bay (16k Pop)---- The largest City in the County (22% of the pop) has long been an overwhelmingly Democratic stronghold but has gradually been drifting Republican for President. Obama won here (52-44 in '12) but Trump won in '16 (49-40). So although as we have seen in other Democratic rural Oregon strongholds, there was a much greater drop in Democratic share of the vote, it is completely unprecedented to see a Republican capture 49% in Coos Bay.

2.) North Bend (10k Pop)--- Sister City to Coos Bay (15.0%), literally if you stop at a light and go over a small bridge you will be there.... It has a slightly cheaper cost of living than Coos Bay, but is basically also a historically strong Democratic Part of the County.

2012: (49-48 Obama), 2016: (52-37 Trump).

What both Coos Bay/ North Bend have in common is a decreasing number of decently paid Middle-Class Blue Collar jobs, and what I suspect might have caused a major drop-off in Democratic support here, was a decision of the Federal Government to reject a $7.5 Billion Project that would have added a Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) terminal at the Port of Coos Bay and created (40) permanent jobs.

Essentially these two Democratic strongholds account for 37% of the County Vote, and the failure of local Democrats to stand up for the LNG project not only caused a major backlash against Clinton at the Federal level, but also against statewide Democratic Candidates, where traditionally Coos would support even after shifting over to vote Republican for President starting in 2000....

3. Coquille and Myrtle Point (9.5% of County)----  Continued to move in a Republican direction but much more rapidly so. Both historically timber mill towns along the Coquille River, they started to move heavily Republican in the 1990s.... Clinton managed to create new record lows (Coquille 27% and Myrtle Point 22 %)..... There was a net 25% swing in Myrtle Point alone between 2012 and 2016....

4.) Bandon (5.6% of County)--- One of the few places in Coos County where Tourism has been successful, Bandon has a nice artsy scene and small shops, a popular World Class Gold Course, and some residents that have moved here from other parts of the state for retirement...  2012:  (52-43 Obama) and 2016: (46-45 Clinton)...

5.) Rural Areas (48% of County)--- Similar pattern to what we saw earlier in Clatsop County....

2012: (55-41 Romney) +14 R and 2016: (62-29 Trump) +33 R. This transcended all parts of the County, and although many of these rural precincts here have a moderate Republican lean, this is not a part of the state where Republicans typically win by 2:1 margins. In fact it is completely unheard of... even Al Gore didn't lose this badly in rural Coos, and he had some baggage mainly because of local politics involved with the Timber Wars and being considered a bit too much of a supporter of the "radical environmentalists".

Coos County Oregon is a proud and vibrant community with a strong economically based Democratic style Populism.... When it comes to Jobs/Environment, voters will back the candidate that talks about jobs and delivers results.... It will be interesting to see what Coos County does in 2020 when the jobs don't materialize.

We need a modern New Deal that delivers for both rural and urban America, and right now rural America is feeling left out of any type of economic recovery or future opportunities.

[NOVA Green]

i just see the Oregon web page, very good they give also precints results
but now they give a turnout of 79,73% higher of your 77,2%
Your analisys s very detailled but maybe did too early?

Yesterday was the final deadline for the counties to certify their results, so all of the precinct level data that I am using is from the final county numbers precinct numbers from the county websites, also called the "Canvass of Votes", or "final certified canvass returns" or something of that nature.

Not all counties post precinct level returns on their county websites, and some counties that do post final precinct level returns haven't yet uploaded the data files, but should in the near future.

The Oregon Secretary of State webpage is pretty cool, but there is a bit of a lag between final numbers getting updated, and although there is a cool precinct level zoom in feature if you click on the county, it doesn't include all counties, and is also slow to update.

So essentially the data that I have used for the county level analysis, are the final numbers, and it's mainly a question of their time in updating the info, and my time pulling all available precinct level data into spreadsheets, consolidating by cities, reviewing the precinct maps, checking against census data, and adding my own observations as someone who has spent many years of my life living in Oregon.

[NOVA Green]

Something is wonky with Benton County on Atlas right now. It has over 120k votes total; write ins are almost beating Trump.

Keep up the good work and hopefully we can get detailed write in data soon.

I just wanted to stop by and say this is an excellent thread!

Have you looked into the differences between the Presidential vote and the Senate vote?

Firstly, thank you both for the kind words, it's more of a labor of love than anything else, plus it's been a bit of a hobby since I was a teenager back in the late '80s, when I needed to go to either county election offices to manually write-in the data, or to the capital in Salem to go through boxes and boxes of archived data to write-into my notebooks.... unfortunately I tossed all of those in a move some years back, so hundreds of labor hours lost in detailed Oregon County returns from 1980-1992..

@ sbane..... yes I have been looking at the US Senate results as I wade through precinct level data, as well as looking at CD-04 returns in particular, and it's actually quite fascinating that even in heavily Republican Counties @ Presidential and Statewide levels, Wyden performed quite well in many areas, and even our "Liberal Democratic Senator from Portland" actually won decisively in many cities and towns that I would not have expected.

I actually meant to add some of the data for CD-04 and the US Senate Race, as well as Statewide elections starting in my Coos County thread, but got distracted and was trying to wrap the post up.... might need to do a follow-up and summarize some of the city level info contrasted with Presidential returns as I move forward with the Project, but it's pretty clear that many Trump voters are perfectly fine with sending a Liberal Democratic Senator to Washington, and these gaps are most apparent in rural and small-town Oregon, especially in places with a strong ancestral Democratic Party DNA, and where Indies swung hard towards Trump.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #6: Yamhill County

Yamhill County is an historic part of Oregon from the early days of the Oregon Trail, where settlers drained the swamps of the prairies to create profitable small farms, built their New England style Protestant churches, and a bit later on moved further West towards the Eastern foothills of the Pacific Coast Mountain Range to harvest the timber.

It has long been a Republican County, from the early days after the Civil War, even into the Great Depression, the post WW II economic boom, and even into the present day.

Although technically it is considered a part of the census designated Vancouver-Portland MSA, this is pretty bunk, since less than 30% of the County has anything to do with the economy of Metro-Portland proper, although there is a fast growing Exurb in Newberg and a few of the surrounding areas, most individuals that live in Yamhill County work in the County.... there are much quicker and easier commutes for those that want to have the feel of "country" or "small town" living in order to commute to jobs in places like Tigard, Beaverton, Hillsboro, let alone the beast of a commute into Downtown Portland.

Yamhill County (Pop 99.2k) is like much of Oregon overwhelmingly "White" (85.4% in 2010) with a rapidly growing Latino Population (14.7%) as well as a Native American Population (1.5%) with a significantly higher concentration in the Southwest part of the County near the Grande Rhonde Reservation.

Economically, the economy overall is fairly decent in terms of unemployment, household income, and cost of living, with a significant sector involved in agriculture (One of the top wine producing counties in Oregon... try some of the Pinot Noir from one of the local vineyards!), forestry (mainly in the Western Part of the county), manufacturing (Cascade Steel in McMinville, A-Dec in Newberg, etc...), as well as education (Linfield and Chemeketa Community College in McMinville) and (George Fox and PCC-Newberg in Newberg).

Politically, I had it on my potential Oregon County flip list because 55% of the population lives in basically two cities, it has a relatively high educational level, compared to many other counties in the state, a decent size and growing Latino population, and doesn't have the same issues with chronic unemployment and the "boom-bust" cycle of the Timber industry, and although there is a significant "rural" population, this includes a mixture of semi-retired "hobby farmers" that have bought some land and farm Christmas Trees, over 80 wineries and 200 vineyards....

Honest disclosure I have had friends that have worked on the X-Mas tree farms, and lived and worked on owners properties in the vineyards, and no one is worried about their coworkers next to them speaking in a mix of Spanish and English, and anyone that has children in public school in most parts of the county knows the parents of their kids friends that are Latino. Regardless of how Yamhill voted, it was certainly not for a "Build The Wall" mandate.

So back on topic:

Politically Yamhill County has been gradually trending Democratic since 2000....

Here is the Presidential Voting Results from 2000-2016:

2000: (54-40 George W.)   +14 R
2004: (57-42 George W.)   +15 R
2008: (49-48 McCain)       +1 R
2012: (51-45 Romney)      +6 R
2016: (48-40 Trump)         +8 R

So although on paper it appears that Trump is starting to reverse that trend, in actuality he has received the lowest percentage that a Republican Presidential candidate has received in 20+ years.

In terms of the city and precinct level results here is the breakdown that helps explain these changes.

1.) McMinville--- (Pop 32.2k) or almost 30% of the voters in the county is a moderately Democratic City, that is not only the location of the County Seat, but also Linfield University (2.2k student enrollment), has a Latino population of 20.6% of city residents (Up from 14.6% in 2000) and is relatively well off in terms of unemployment and household income, and has a fairly high educational level.

It is definitely NOT a part of Metro Portland, and is essentially the "big city" for most of the county residents.

2008: (53-43 Obama)
2012: (51-46 Obama)
2016: (47-42 Clinton)

Although Trump as able to hold onto almost a McCain % of the votes, it was the lowest level in decades for a Republican nominee.... Clinton was only able to win the city by 700 votes, as opposed to the 1.2k vote lead that Obama garnered in '08, with over 900 votes for Green/Bernie Write-Ins, as well as over 800 for Libertarians.... It's clear that 3rd Party voting hurt Clinton significantly in McMinville.

2.) Newberg (Pop 22.1k) or 22% of County voters. A fast growing exurban city that IS part of Metro-Portland, where individuals might commute to jobs in Washington County in exchange for somewhat cheaper prices for housing, and relatively decent schools, but still a decent proportion of the locals actually work in the surrounding area rather than deal with a longer commute....

There is a decent sized Medical Center located in town, George Fox University, a large privately owned dental equipment manufacturing firm A-Dec that employs >800 individuals. There was a large paper mill that was privately owned that was bought out by a multinational that mothballed the facility back in November of '15 and sent 200 employees to the streets which was ruled a layoff directly impacted by the new company shifting jobs overseas as part of a Department of Labor finding...

Honestly, I'm not sure what impact this had if any on the local election results, but on one hand it made a splash in the community, and Trump was certainly one raising the issue of "Free Trade" more than Clinton in the General Election, so it might have had some small impact on the margins.... IDK

2008: (51-46 McCain)      +5 R
2012: (53-43 Romney)   +10 R
2016: (45-40 Trump)       +6 R

Newberg actually had the biggest swing towards the Democrats of anywhere in Yamhill County between '12 and '16, and was part of the reason that I had this county on a "flip watch list"....

15% of the city voted for 3rd Party / Write-In candidates with almost 600 write-ins alone, the vast majority Bernie ballots....

3.) Sheridan (Pop 6.1k including inmates)---  and accounts for about 3.5% of the county votes. As I alluded to in my pop description, it is home to a medium and high security Federal Correctional Institution (FCI) with 2k inmates, and is basically a community heavily dependent upon income related to jobs tied to the prison.

This city had the biggest swing towards Trump, and locals that don't have jobs or family members employed by FCI-Sheridan, are likely to commute 20-25 minutes West to work at the Casino of Spirit Mountain.

2008: (48-47 McCain)   +1R
2012:  (52-43 Romney)  +9 R
2016:  (57-32 Trump)    +25 R

There is absolutely no question that there was a significant number of Obama '08/ Trump '16 voters here, and it is difficult to believe that Trump's "Law and Order" message wasn't a factor.

It would be interesting to see if anyone else can pull data from smaller communities with a large Prison sector workforce to see if this is an isolated phenomenon, or a pattern.

4.) Willamina- (Pop 2.1k) or 1% of County voters.  Although this is a very small community with only 480 voters in 2016 it is somewhat representative of the SW part of the county. The city is 9% Native American, and is right next to the Grand Rhonde Reservation, houses a large timber mill, and many residents work at the local Spirit Mountain Casino....

2008: (50-43 McCain)    +7 R
2012: (51-39 Romney)   +12 R
2016: (59-25 Trump)      +26 R  (!!!)

Although there is a large Native population, it is still overwhelmingly Non-Latino White, and is a relatively poor and working-class rural community where Trump's message resonated, in one of the more economically depressed parts of the County.

5.) Rural Yamhill---- Accounts for 40% of the countywide vote, and there was roughly an equal drop-off of support for both major party candidates between '12 and '16.

2008: (52-44 McCain)    +8 R
2012: (55-41 Romney)  +14 R
2016:  (53-38 Trump)    +15 R

Obviously these include many different parts of the county, but what stood out to me were the results from Amity and surrounding rural areas (58-31 Trump), NW Yamhill County (57-32 Trump), and SW Yamhill County (58-27 Trump).... considering the dramatic swings from 2008. NW Yamhill County was only a (50-45 McCain) precinct in '08, and although the other two are reliably Republican rural precincts, it was unusual to see the floor completely collapse under the Democratic nominee.

So, I was wrong on my Yamhill potential flip prediction both underestimated the Democratic defections to Green and Bernie in McMinville, saw a greater swing towards Clinton in Newberg than was the case among moderate Republicans and Indies, and also underestimated the dramatic swing in some rural parts of the county....

Still despite all of that Trump still managed to achieve a record low percentage in a reliably Republican County for over two decades or more, and we will see what happens in 2020.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #7: Columbia County

Columbia County (Pop 49.4k 2010), one of the earliest counties in Oregon to experience a significant settler population, as a result of its location on the Lower Columbia River downstream from Portland with the advent of riverboats in the 1850s, and later the railroads, voted Republican for President in 2016 for the first time since 1928.

It is a county shaped by the early Pioneer settlers and Timber and related products were long a dominant part of the economy from the state of the art "world class" mill in Vernonia  that closed in the late 1950s to the pulp and paper mills of cities like St. Helens, Scappoose, and Clatskanie, with both Vernonia and St Helens being referred to as "payroll cities".

The New Deal brought electricity to much of the region as a result of Hydro-Electric dams along the Columbia River (Several classic Woody Guthrie songs such as "Roll on Columbia, Roll on" talk about). Other federal programs benefited the county as well: massive shipbuilding during WW I (St Helens), the large Beaver Army Terminal (Munitions Depot) from WW II until 1964, which was the largest employer in Clatskanie, and the Trojan Nuclear Power Plant in Rainier.

Technically is a part of the Vancouver-Portland MSA, the reality is that outside of a small number of people around Scappoose, there are few that commute into Portland to work. People commute to Longview, WA, to work in the Port, Warehouse, and mfg jobs, and Columbia Co is more like Cowlitz Co, WA (Also Trump flip) than PDX.

Politically, it has voted Democratic for President for decades, the 2000 and 2004 elections were fairly close, continues to support Democrats for the US Senate and House, and not unusual for Columbia Co to support Reps for statewide offices.

Here is how the county voted for President 2000-2016:

2000: (49-44 Gore) +5 D
2004: (50-48 Kerry) +2 D
2008:  (54-42 Obama)  +12 D
2012:  (50-45 Obama)  +5 D
2016:  (38-50 Trump)   +12 R

Meanwhile in 2016 Columbia County voted to reelect Liberal US Senator Ron Wyden (50-39) with an additional 10% of the US Senate vote going to Left-Wing and Green Parties!!!! (The Oregon Progressive Party, Pacific Green Party, and Working Families Party).

Columbia County support a Democrat for US CD-01 (49-46).

Although it backed Republican Bud Pierce for Governor, it was only a 50-42 margin.

The collapse of support for a Democratic Presidential nominee was unprecedented, even in reliably Democratic precincts (Trump on 31/33 precincts in the county).

Although Trump only improve +2 of George W. Bush's 2004 48%, Clinton's support dropped 12% from Kerry's '04 50%, and a similar 12% from Obama's '12 percentage (50.3%).

I have been grappling with the question of what caused this collapse, in a county where there has not been any major demographic change, issues like immigration and terrorism are not major local hot topics, no major local environment/jobs conflicts, overall the unemployment rate and household income level are doing better than many similar parts of the state, there's not a large and vocal evangelical community pushing "Culture War" type issues, and Democrats hold an 8 point voter registration edge (36 D; 28 R- 29 NA; 7 Other).

After a significant review of local newspaper articles, the economic profile of various communities within the county, I think that I have identified the major cause of collapse in Democratic Presidential support in Columbia 2016, as well as similar communities in Washington State, Northern Maine, and even parts of Wisconsin (Looking at you Green Bay area).

The county is less dependent on Forest Products than decades ago, there is still a significant amount of jobs still tied to paper mill related products, that impacts every community in the county, where decent paying union jobs are increasingly difficult to find and two recent mass layoffs caused massive shock ripples throughout the County, as well as neighboring Clatsop County.

1.) The closure of the Georgia-Pacific (Owned by the Koch brothers) Wauna Mill near Clatskanie, Oregon caused an estimated layoff of 900 employees, many of them Union members, and as a result of a Federal finding, workers were eligible for additional support due to "shift in production to another country".

http://media.oregonlive.com/mapes/other/OutrageInOregonFinal2.pdf

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/10/30/263832/-

http://www.camaspostrecord.com/news/2014/apr/01/g-p-mill-navigates-global-local-issues/


2.) Boise Cascade shut down of their mill in St. Helens Oregon, laying off  ~(300+)  heavily union employees at the onset of the Great Recession. Although Cascade Timber ended up buying the mill and has resumed operations, as well as in the process of building another facility down the road in Scappoose, it's unclear if the new owners have a union plant, what the total employment is, and what the new compensation and benefit levels are for grandfathered former employees.

http://tdn.com/business/local/boise-inc-to-cut-jobs-at-st-helens-paper-mill/article_2e7c66ee-b87c-50d1-9587-750ec230384c.html

Regardless of the specific outcomes for individual workers at these facilities, there has been a fundamental argument that Trade Unions in the paper industry have made (In particular the "recycled paper industry" as opposed to the "newsprint" paper mills), that unfair foreign trade competition in particular, has been one of the major reasons for the massive wave of pulp and paper mill closures throughout the United States over the past ten years....

China in particular has been identified as a major reason

http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/01/china_is_killing_oregons_paper.html

http://mainemeetsworld.bangordailynews.com/2015/12/14/home/where-the-paper-industry-went/


I am 100% convinced that this the major reason for the '16 swings here.

Trump was seen as more authentic on foreign trade issues than Clinton....

Here is a brief summary of city level results from '12/'16 but there are fewer dramatic swings between cities/precincts than I had expected from smaller-cities, small towns, and rural areas....

1.) St. Helens (12.9k Pop)--- (22.8% of County Vote).  

Economy and labor force heavily dominated by manufacturing (22%), construction (16%), retail (11%), transportation and warehousing (10%). Aside from the former Boise Cascade (Now Cascade Timber) plant that I mentioned earlier there are several other large mfg employers, including Armstrong World Industries (Mfg of ceiling tiles) and a company that does metal machining and customized forklift heads for a variety of major Fortune 500 Companies (Including Cat. and Toyota). Each employees ~ (200) employees.

2012: (54-41 Obama)   +13 D
2016: (39-47 Trump)    +8 R

This is a traditional Democratic stronghold, and it is noteworthy that they went heavily Democratic for US Senator, US Rep for CD-01, and even Dem for Governor and most other statewide down-ballot races.

2.) Scappoose- (Pop 6.6k)--- (14% of the county vote).

Although as I mentioned before this county is considered part of Metro-PDX, this is really the only city, as well a few rural precincts South of here, where anyone really considers commuting to Portland via Hwy 30.... there is some local manufacturing remaining, as well as construction starting on a new Cascade Timber paper facility with an estimated (200) construction jobs until the plant opens in Spring of '17 with maybe around (80) permanent FTE.

Likely as a result, the only part of the county to stay Democratic, albeit with a narrow plurality....

2012: (53-43 Obama)  +11 D
2016: (44-42 Clinton)  +2 D

Note the drop-off of both Democratic and Republican Party support.

Still stayed safely Dem for US Senate, CD-01, and statewide elections.

3.) Columbia City--- (Pop 2k 2010)--- (4.8% of county voters).

Essentially a sister city right next door to St. Helens and mirrors trends, but slightly more Republican... Interestingly enough it didn't swing as hard Rep as St. Helens

2012: (53-44 Obama)   +9 D
2016: (44-47 Trump)    +3 R

4.) Vernonia--- (Pop 2.2k)....  (4.1% of county voters).

Once the home of one of the most modern and largest timber processing mills in the United States, that virtually eliminated all of the Old Growth in the Northern Oregon Coast range between 1930 and 1960, it is now a small town that still relies on logging (>120 jobs directly tied to about five small family owned logging companies based in town). As was typical of many small towns and rural communities that relied primarily on logging during the days of Timber Wars of the late '80s and early '90s, it swung Republican, while many of the Mill Towns continue to remain reliably Democratic.

2012: (40-54 Romney)   +14 R
2016: (28-57 Trump)     +29 R

These types of numbers are NOT typical, even for smaller logging based communities in this part of the state....

5.) Rainier-  (Pop 1.9k)--- (3.4% of County Vote)----

Right across the river from Kelso and Longview in Washington State (See Cowlitz County 2016 Presidential Election returns).... and basically the only bridge across the Columbia River between Astoria and Portland, which if you look at it on a map actually means a hella' a lot of mileage for people that work for the factories, ports, and warehouses on either side of the river, let alone business services.... It used to be most well known as the home of the Trojan Nuclear Power Plant (The only one in Oregon) and subject to numerous protests, environmental litigation, etc.... until the facility was closed as a result of a design flaw. The closure of the plant did cause a temporary economic impact in the city (Full disclosure---- when I was in college I met the son of one of the former plant managers who was enrolled in the OSU Nuclear Energy program, and shifted to an economics major), however it has since recovered.    

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trojan_Nuclear_Power_Plant


2012: (50-44 Obama)  +6 D
2016: (38-50 Trump)   +12 R

6.) Clatnaskie--- (Pop 1.7k)---- (2.9% of county population in '16 down from 3.2% in '12).

As I mentioned before, this is the site of a massive layoff from Koch brothers owned Georgia-Pacific, that impacted both Clatsop and Columbia counties, as well as the city itself....

The city and surrounding rural areas, and taxpayers footing the bill for the Koch Brother bailout are still trying to recover....

2012: (46-50 Romney)   +4 R
2016: (34-53 Trump)     +19 R


6.) Rural Columbia County--- (48.2% of County Vote)

2012: (49-47 Obama)   +2 D
2016: (37-52 Trump)   +15 R

Although rural Columbia County swung significantly towards Trump, it was actually only slightly more than the countywide average....

[NOVA Green]

Has anyone noticed that, according to our database, Write-ins won Polk County?

Dave's been having some trouble with Oregon lately. He had write-ins besting Trump in Benton County for a while.

The Oregon SOS site shows those results. It's not Dave's fault. Though I wonder why?

Oregon did update to a new county>state reporting interface for the 2016 General Election, and although I didn't notice any issue with Benton County on the state website, this could be part of the reason for the glitch with Polk County numbers.

I generally work off of the data on the county websites, since I can get raw precinct level data more quickly, and export into spreadsheet software and also many counties don't participate with the precinct level data part of the software yet (Fingers crossed that this will go statewide in 2018).

I do like the fact that for some counties you can get a visual representation of precinct data, and since we don't have a uniform GiS, Shapefile system, I haven't been able to provide graphical representation to the precinct level data I've been reviewing, so for some of the counties I've covered (Clatsop, Columbia, Coos, Benton, Marion, and parts of Yamhill, you can review the precinct maps on the website after checking my city level breakdowns and descriptions if interested.

 

[NOVA Green]

Thank you for an extremely detailed and informative analysis. I feel as though I know these towns and counties through and through now.

Thanks Nym---- much appreciated!

More to come....

[NOVA Green]

Has anyone noticed that, according to our database, Write-ins won Polk County?

Dave's been having some trouble with Oregon lately. He had write-ins besting Trump in Benton County for a while.

The Oregon SOS site shows those results. It's not Dave's fault. Though I wonder why?

Oregon did update to a new county>state reporting interface for the 2016 General Election, and although I didn't notice any issue with Benton County on the state website, this could be part of the reason for the glitch with Polk County numbers.

I generally work off of the data on the county websites, since I can get raw precinct level data more quickly, and export into spreadsheet software and also many counties don't participate with the precinct level data part of the software yet (Fingers crossed that this will go statewide in 2018).

I do like the fact that for some counties you can get a visual representation of precinct data, and since we don't have a uniform GiS, Shapefile system, I haven't been able to provide graphical representation to the precinct level data I've been reviewing, so for some of the counties I've covered (Clatsop, Columbia, Coos, Benton, Marion, and parts of Yamhill, you can review the precinct maps on the website after checking my city level breakdowns and descriptions if interested.

It isn't just Polk County; Lincoln County has impossible-to-believe data about write-in votes too, according to the Sec. of State's website. In fact because of Lincoln and Polk Counties having clearly over-stated data about write-in votes, the Sos is now reporting 124,988 write-in votes, which is greater than Gary Johnson's votes.

Although there was an historic volume of write-ins for a modern Presidential election, this is obviously directly tied to some bugs with the new county uploading system.

Overall write-ins will likely end up around 3.5% of the statewide vote, with the vast majority for Bernie, as well as a significant percentage for Romney/McMullin, particularly in the Mormon Belt of Eastern Oregon, as well as throughout the Valley.

Looking at Polk and Lincoln, it almost looks like there was an extra digit added to the total vote numbers and percentages, which would both be plausible (4.2% WI in Polk and 5.2% in Lincoln)...

Lincoln County was looking normal yesterday, as was Polk a few days back.... The SoS website is going through some maint. issues/downtime, so hopefully we'll get the actual numbers by Monday.

In the case of Lincoln County, it is possible but unlikely that Write-Ins exceeded the Libertarian vote, but even then it would only be potentially 5% at the absolute maximum.