The 100 States of America

[Gass3268]

Not sure if you had ideas yet for the two Wisconsin states, but I'd keep the western one called Wisconsin with Madison remaining as the capital. Winnebago would be a good name for the eastern one and Fond du Lac would be a good central location between the two centers of population in the new state.

[Gass3268]

To match Del Tachi, but in the Midwest:

IL-Cook County: Chicago or Dearborn; Chicago is obvious, but maybe a suburb like Oak Park or Evanston?
IL-Chicago Suburbs: Lincoln or Chicagoland; Aurora or Naperville
IL-Northwest: Illinois (The river flows right through here); Peoria or Springfield
IL-South: Shawnee (National Forest and Indigenous Tribe) or Little Egypt; Not a great central location here, maybe Effingham (have not heard positive things about the place) or Decatur?
IN-North: Wabash (Not a huge fan of naming a state famous for an Indian battle); South Bend
IN-South: Hoosier (Never been a fan of the Indiana name); keep Indianapolis
MI-North: Superior or Huron; Traverse City or Midland
MI-West: Michigan or Ford; Grand Rapids or Lansing
MI-East: Motown; Ann Arbor, Livonia or Detroit itself (Detroit could use the boost)
MN-Twin Cities: Twin Cities; St. Paul
MN-Remainder: Minnesota; St. Cloud or Mankato
MO-North: Missouri; Columbia
MO-South: Ozark; Jefferson City or Springfield
OH-Southeast: Ohio; Athens
OH-Northeast: Western Reserve or Erie or Cuyahoga; Cleveland (Cleveland could use the boost)
OH-Southwest: Miami or Grant; Dayton
OH- Northwest: Maumee or Scioto (Not great choices here); Columbus
WI-East: Menominee or Michigan; Fond du Lac or Sheboygan
WI-West: Wisconsin; Madison or LaCrosse

[Gass3268]

Do you have the 2023 Gov results for Kentucky and Jackson?

[Gass3268]

Congressional Representation: ER's Senators were last elected in 2020 and 2022. The only Republican to win a Senate race in recent memory was Rob Portman in 2016, but he was an incumbent, and it's doubtful that he would have had an easy race against a well-organized state Democratic party. Given Tim Ryan won by 12 points, I'm going to assume the state still has two Dem Senators. As for the House, I'd expect at least a light Dem gerrymander. In the current state of things, they'd have to concede at least 2 seats (possibly 3 - Timmy might try to find out) to the GOP, but that's a fair price to pay to safeguard the other 5-6 (or 4-5 post-resdistricting).

Playing around here and I think the 5-2 vs 4-3 split comes down to whether or not there needs to be two Black VRA districts. If it is determined that you only need 1, I think 5-2 is easy. If you need two, it gets harder.

[Gass3268]

Congressional Representation: ER's Senators were last elected in 2020 and 2022. The only Republican to win a Senate race in recent memory was Rob Portman in 2016, but he was an incumbent, and it's doubtful that he would have had an easy race against a well-organized state Democratic party. Given Tim Ryan won by 12 points, I'm going to assume the state still has two Dem Senators. As for the House, I'd expect at least a light Dem gerrymander. In the current state of things, they'd have to concede at least 2 seats (possibly 3 - Timmy might try to find out) to the GOP, but that's a fair price to pay to safeguard the other 5-6 (or 4-5 post-resdistricting).

Playing around here and I think the 5-2 vs 4-3 split comes down to whether or not there needs to be two Black VRA districts. If it is determined that you only need 1, I think 5-2 is easy. If you need two, it gets harder.

Based on Erie's demographics it's gotta be no more than one. Two would be a significant OVERrepresentation of the Black population.

Yeah, I think that's far, especially with 7 instead of 8 seats.

[Gass3268]

Here is what I got for Erie:



Not sure how you are doing naming, but I think a Americanized version of the British/Canadian system would be fun.

1 - Erie East - R+12 (Trump 59.8% - Biden 39.7%)
2 - Euclid-Mentor - D+6 (Biden 56.8% - Trump 42.1%
3 - Cleveland - D+32 (51.4% Black VAP) (Biden 80.6% - Trump 18.3%)
4 - Parma-Shaker Heights - D+6 (Biden 57.3% - Trump 41.7%)
5 - Lorain-Lakewood - D+5 (Biden 55.7-Trump 43.0%)
6 - Akron - D+8 (Biden 58.9%-Trump 39.7%)
7 - Erie West - R+13 (Trump 60.3% - Biden 38.3%)

Went with the suggestion of a medium Democratic gerrymander. I also only had to split a couple municipalities, and none of the big ones (Cleveland, Akron, etc.), so maybe if they wanted to be a bit more cutthroat maybe they could divide Cleveland up a bit more.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, this works really well! It's not even that egregious looking, but it should keep those 5 seats in Democratic hands for the decade barring a huge upset.

2020 or 2010 data?

It's gotta be 2020, since ER would have 8 seats for the 2010 round of redistricting.

Ah. True.
I'll see what I can do.
Baseline assumptions: R gerrymandering everywhere but Erie, D gerrymandering in Erie.

I'll take the Midwest if you want to take the South.

[Gass3268]

For Ohio I could see them going two different ways.

Hard Gerrymander - 2018 Brown loses every seat here. All 5 are Safe R and are at least R+10



1. Warren-Coshocton R+14
2. Youngstown-New Philadelphia R+13
3. Canton-Wooster R+11
4. Steubenville-Zanesville R+18
5. Chillicothe-Portsmouth R+25

Cleaner Gerrymander - Brown wins both 1 and 2, but Trump still gets over 60 of the vote in 2020 and it looks nicer



1.Warren-New Philadelphia R+15
2. Youngstown-Steubenville R+11
3. Canon-Wooster R+12
4. Zanesville-Athens R+20
5. Chillicothe-Portsmouth R+25

[Gass3268]

Here is what a fair map would look like for Ohio:



1. Youngstown-Warren R+4
2. Athens-Steubenville R+20
3. Canton-New Philadelphia R+12
4. Zanesville-Wooster R+23
5. Chillicothe-Portsmouth R+26

[Gass3268]

Best take on a fair Eire map.



1. Erie East - R+11
2. Cleveland Heights-North Royalton - D+17
3. Cleveland - D+31 (VRA Black 50.1% VAP)
4. Parma-Lakewood - D+2
5. Kent-Brunswick R+9
6. Akron - D+4
7. Eire West - R+5

[Gass3268]

Hamilton Maps:

Hard Gerrymander


1 - Hamilton West R+9
2 - Cincinnati West R+6
3 - Hamilton East R+11
4 - Cincinnati East R+10
5 - Middletown R+6
6 - Dayton-Springfield North R+10
7 - Springfield South-Kettering R+8

Used the 2018 to make sure that Brown lost all these districts

Soft Gerrymander
 
1. Cincinnati D+24
2. Hamilton Southwest R+19
3. Hamilton Southeast R+12
4. Middleton-Mason R+17
5. Dayton R+12
6. Kettering-Beavercreek R+13
7. Springfield-Huber Heights R+12

Packed as many blue precincts into the Cincinnati district and cut Montgomery County into 3. Brown only won the Cincinnati seat in 2018.

Fair
 

1. Cincinnati D+15
2. Hamilton County R+3
3. Butler County R+15
4. Hamilton Southeast R+19
5. Dayton D+3
6. Springfield-Beavercreek R+17
7. Hamilton North R+24

Biden won the Hamilton County district by 2 points after Hillary lost it by almost 6. Feels like a good local Democrat could win here.