Millennials Up For Grabs?

[Mehmentum]

2014 exit polls on this:

The 18-29 age group is still the most Democratic age group.  They voted for Democrats 54% to 43%.  However, this margin is 2 points less than it was in 2010.

More than half of this age group should be under 25, which has been proposed to be more open to Republicans.  A two point shift isn't negligible, but it also isn't groundbreaking. These new millennials (at least so far) are significantly more Democratic than the general electorate.

Democrats increased their performance among the 30-44 age group by 6% (winning them 50% to 48%).  This is likely due to millennials aging into the group.

Interestingly, Democrats did 6 points better with the 65+ age group compared to 2010.  There was probably nowhere for them to go but up after 2010.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/11/04/us/politics/2014-exit-polls.html?_r=0#us/2014

[Mehmentum]

Republicans can take comfort in the fact that they'll only be losing new voters by 10 points instead of 30 points. 

[Mehmentum]

As a 20 year old born in 1994, I personally lean towards the growing Libertarian wing within the GOP, and I also know several other people in my age group who are also leaning in that direction. On the other hand, I live in suburban Georgia, which is currently a GOP stronghold as is.

Nationally, I agree that those born after 1993 will be more pro-GOP than the 1982 - 1992 crowd. However, the Republicans must become moderate to liberal on social issues. People in my age group are less keen about the Democrat Party's view on fiscal matters, but we're as socially liberal as those who were born in the 80's. An evangelical, socially conservative GOP cannot survive.

If the Republicans become Moderate to Liberal on social issues they could make Michigan and maybe Wisconsin competitive and even make inroads in Illinois, Connecticut, and Maine. At the same time their base in the Deep South would be very upset if the party moderated on social issues.

What are they going to do, vote Democrat?

It could decrease turnout among those groups.

[Mehmentum]

We are rapidly hitting the point where millennials aren't going to be the "youth" generation in the election anymore. If youth is defined as 18-24, anyone born before 1992 won't be a youth voter in 2016...push it to 18-29 and 1987 becomes the line. There will be people born in 1996 who are voting, and people who were born in 1996 aren't millennials by any definition I've heard (usually something like born 1982-1995). The people on the 1982 side of that balance will be in their mid-30s.

Definitely.  The Democrats increased their performance in the 30-44 age group by 6 points between 2010 and 2012.