Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[smoltchanov]

It seems that Fitch - McRae may be the most interesting primary race. And may be - the only one, which may be interesting..

[gespb19]

The article linked below is 2 weeks old, but it has some interesting info on the upcoming MS House races in 2015.

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/politicalledger/2015/05/07/moak-house-elections/70948922/

[windjammer]

I guess MS Blue Dogs are mostly in Northern Mississippi?

[gespb19]

I guess MS Blue Dogs are mostly in Northern Mississippi?

This is correct. In the northeast part of the state, there's about 6-7 blue dogs still in the house.

[Del Tachi]

It seems that Fitch - McRae may be the most interesting primary race. And may be - the only one, which may be interesting..

Correct.  The good ol' boy network has always had reservations about Fitch, and its going to be interesting to see if Fitch can eek-out a win if the Establishment abandons her. 

My bets on a narrow Fitch win, she should have state employees locked-up due to her historically support of PERS. 

[gespb19]

I feel somewhat confident in saying that McRae/Fitch will split Jackson Metro. I guess Fitch will probably get most of the Delta vote. Other than that, I have no idea what will happen in that primary.

[smoltchanov]

AFAIK, this time redistricting was conducted by Republicans and it's the first post-redistricting election. Naturally, Republicans almost completely left black Democrats alone (it seems, no more then 2-3 of them have even token Republican opposition), at the same time - attacking remaining white (usually - somewhat more conservative, though there are almost no one resembling "solid"conservatives of the past) Democrats. That alone must give them 3-5 seats. Whether Democrats can be able to compensate that in other districts - another matter..

[7,052,770]

I'm a lot more interested to see what happens in the Auditor primary than the Treasurer primary, myself.

[Del Tachi]

I'm a lot more interested to see what happens in the Auditor primary than the Treasurer primary, myself.

Pickering is good as gold.  I think he wins that one easily.   

[gespb19]

Looking at the list of candidates on the SOS site, here are the GOP incumbents that are receiving primary challenges. Names in bold are incumbents.

House

Eugene Hamilton/Dana Criwell (District 6, DeSoto)
Wanda Jennings/Steve Hopkins (District 7, DeSoto)
Randy Boyd/Peggy Schumpert Hussey(District 19, Itawamba)
Gene Alday/Julian Chandler Bramlett/Melissa Conn/Dan Eubanks (District 25, DeSoto)
Joey Hood/Brian Sims (District 35, Winston/Neshoba)
Pat Nelson/Ashley Henson (District 40, DeSoto)
John Moore/Paul Buisson (District 60, Rankin)
Ray Rogers/Randall Stephens (District 61, Rankin)
Tom Weathersby/Wesley Wilson (District 62, Rankin)
Gary Staples/Christopher Hodge/Mitchell Pitts (District 88, Jones)
Ken Morgan/Harry Griffith (District 100, Marion)
Toby Barker/Ric McCluskey (District 102, Forrest)
Jeff Guice/Barney O’Neal (District 114, Harrison)
Greg Haney/John McCay III (District 118, Harrison)
Carolyn Crawford/Jeff Wallace (District 121, Harrison)

Senate

Chris Massey/James Eubanks (District 1, DeSoto)
Nancy Collins/Mike Armour/Chris McMahan (District 6, Lee/Itawamba)
Charles Younger/Bobby Patrick Jr. (District 17, Lowndes/Monroe)
Briggs Hopson/Bill Marcy (District 23, Warren/Issaquena/Yazoo)
Will Longwitz/William Billingsley (District 25, Madison/Hinds)
Melanie Sojourner/Curtis Moroney/Lane Reed (District 37, Adams/Franklin/Pike/Amite)
Sally Doty/Mike Campbell (District 39, Lincoln/Lawrence/Walthall/Copiah)
Phillip Gandy/Dennis DeBar (District 43, George/Greene/Wayne)
Sean Tindell/Katherine DeCoito (District 49, Harrison)
Michael Watson/Butch Loper (District 51, Jackson)

[7,052,770]

I'm a lot more interested to see what happens in the Auditor primary than the Treasurer primary, myself.

Pickering is good as gold.  I think he wins that one easily.   

Mary Hawkins is way too shrewd to file to bother running if she's gonna get creamed. At least, she's always seemed to be.

She might be the only Republican in the state I'd vote for for governor if she ever runs for that -- she's just THAT competent.

[smoltchanov]

Looking at the list of candidates on the SOS site, here are the GOP incumbents that are receiving primary challenges. Names in bold are incumbents.

House

Eugene Hamilton/Dana Criwell (District 6, DeSoto)
Wanda Jennings/Steve Hopkins (District 7, DeSoto)
Randy Boyd/Peggy Schumpert Hussey(District 19, Itawamba)
Gene Alday/Julian Chandler Bramlett/Melissa Conn/Dan Eubanks (District 25, DeSoto)
Joey Hood/Brian Sims (District 35, Winston/Neshoba)
Pat Nelson/Ashley Henson (District 40, DeSoto)
John Moore/Paul Buisson (District 60, Rankin)
Ray Rogers/Randall Stephens (District 61, Rankin)
Tom Weathersby/Wesley Wilson (District 62, Rankin)
Gary Staples/Christopher Hodge/Mitchell Pitts (District 88, Jones)
Ken Morgan/Harry Griffith (District 100, Marion)
Toby Barker/Ric McCluskey (District 102, Forrest)
Jeff Guice/Barney O’Neal (District 114, Harrison)
Greg Haney/John McCay III (District 118, Harrison)
Carolyn Crawford/Jeff Wallace (District 121, Harrison)

Senate

Chris Massey/James Eubanks (District 1, DeSoto)
Nancy Collins/Mike Armour/Chris McMahan (District 6, Lee/Itawamba)
Charles Younger/Bobby Patrick Jr. (District 17, Lowndes/Monroe)
Briggs Hopson/Bill Marcy (District 23, Warren/Issaquena/Yazoo)
Will Longwitz/William Billingsley (District 25, Madison/Hinds)
Melanie Sojourner/Curtis Moroney/Lane Reed (District 37, Adams/Franklin/Pike/Amite)
Sally Doty/Mike Campbell (District 39, Lincoln/Lawrence/Walthall/Copiah)
Phillip Gandy/Dennis DeBar (District 43, George/Greene/Wayne)
Sean Tindell/Katherine DeCoito (District 49, Harrison)
Michael Watson/Butch Loper (District 51, Jackson)

Good and thanks! But ideological differences (even if subtle) are important here. Watson and Sojourner were among staunchest McDaniel supporters for example, but in most cases i don't have an info.

P.S. Corresponding list for Democrats would also be helpful (i think - it's substantially shorter)

[gespb19]

Looking at the list of candidates on the SOS site, here are the GOP incumbents that are receiving primary challenges. Names in bold are incumbents.

House

Eugene Hamilton/Dana Criwell (District 6, DeSoto)
Wanda Jennings/Steve Hopkins (District 7, DeSoto)
Randy Boyd/Peggy Schumpert Hussey(District 19, Itawamba)
Gene Alday/Julian Chandler Bramlett/Melissa Conn/Dan Eubanks (District 25, DeSoto)
Joey Hood/Brian Sims (District 35, Winston/Neshoba)
Pat Nelson/Ashley Henson (District 40, DeSoto)
John Moore/Paul Buisson (District 60, Rankin)
Ray Rogers/Randall Stephens (District 61, Rankin)
Tom Weathersby/Wesley Wilson (District 62, Rankin)
Gary Staples/Christopher Hodge/Mitchell Pitts (District 88, Jones)
Ken Morgan/Harry Griffith (District 100, Marion)
Toby Barker/Ric McCluskey (District 102, Forrest)
Jeff Guice/Barney O’Neal (District 114, Harrison)
Greg Haney/John McCay III (District 118, Harrison)
Carolyn Crawford/Jeff Wallace (District 121, Harrison)

Senate

Chris Massey/James Eubanks (District 1, DeSoto)
Nancy Collins/Mike Armour/Chris McMahan (District 6, Lee/Itawamba)
Charles Younger/Bobby Patrick Jr. (District 17, Lowndes/Monroe)
Briggs Hopson/Bill Marcy (District 23, Warren/Issaquena/Yazoo)
Will Longwitz/William Billingsley (District 25, Madison/Hinds)
Melanie Sojourner/Curtis Moroney/Lane Reed (District 37, Adams/Franklin/Pike/Amite)
Sally Doty/Mike Campbell (District 39, Lincoln/Lawrence/Walthall/Copiah)
Phillip Gandy/Dennis DeBar (District 43, George/Greene/Wayne)
Sean Tindell/Katherine DeCoito (District 49, Harrison)
Michael Watson/Butch Loper (District 51, Jackson)

Good and thanks! But ideological differences (even if subtle) are important here. Watson and Sojourner were among staunchest McDaniel supporters for example, but in most cases i don't have an info.

P.S. Corresponding list for Democrats would also be helpful (i think - it's substantially shorter)

I don't know about a lot of these candidates (especially those in the north half of the state) but most of the incumbents listed are establishment types, aside from Watson/Sojourner (like you mentioned). Pretty sure Gandy and Massey were McDaniel supporters too.

Out of the house incumbents, most of the names listed have no McDaniel ties except for Staples (he and McDaniel are both from Jones County). McCluskey is the challenger in District 102 (my district), and he was part of the McDaniel campaign last summer, but probably doesn't have much of a shot against Barker. Barker is conservative on fiscal issues, but is pretty moderate on social issues. He was the only Republican to vote no on the Religious Freedom Bill from last year and he wrote an amendment to the 20 week abortion ban in 2014 that would make exceptions for rape and incest (which was shot down by the legislature).

I'll post a list of Democrat incumbents that are being challenged in a little while.

[gespb19]

Democrat incumbents that are being challenged. Bolded names are incumbents.

House

John Faulkner/Jacqueline Simon (District 5, Marshall/Benton)
Lataisha Jackson/Michael Cathey (District 11, Panola/Tate)
Sara Thomas/Charles Modley (District 31, Indianola/Washington)
Kevin Horan/Reta Holden (District 34, Grenada/Leflore/Holmes)
Karl Gibbs/Edward Houston/Jimmy Davidson (District 36, Clay/Monroe)
Esther Harrison/Kabir Karriem (District 41, Lowndes)
Reecy Dickson/Carl Mickens/Eugene Crosby (District 42, Noxubee/Lowndes/Winston)
Michael Evans/Clark Adams (District 45, Kemper/Lauderdale/Neshoba/Winston)
Oscar Denton/Chris Green/Arrick Rice (District 55, Warren)
Deborah Dixon/Machelle Kyles (District 63, Hinds/Warren/Yazoo)
Credell Calhoun/Kenneth Shearrill (District 68, Hinds)
Alyce Clarke/Patty Patterson (District 69, Hinds)
Kimberly Campbell/Corinthian Sanders (District 72, Hinds/Madison)
Chuck Middleton/Maurice Hudson/Allen Burks (District 85, Jefferson/Claiborne/Warren/Franklin)
David Myers/Tasha Dillon (District 98, Pike/Walthall)
Jeramey Anderson/Mitch Ellerby (District 110, Jackson)

Senate

Steve Hale/Bill Stone (District 10, Tate/Marshall)
Robert Jackson/Jimmy Edwards/Clara Dawkins-Davis (District 11, Coahoma/Quitman/Tunica/Panola)
Kenny Wayne Jones/Barbara Blackmon (District 21, Madison/Leake/Attala/Holmes)
John Horhn/Stephen Thompson (District 26, Hinds/Madison)
David Blount/Eclecius Franklin (District 29, Hinds)
Sampson Jackson/Keith Jackson (District 32, Kemper/Noxubee/Lauderdale/Winston)
Albert Butler/Elvis Colenburg/Jeffrey Harness (District 36, Hinds/Copiah/Claiborne)
Deborah Dawkins/Joseph Piernas (District 48, Harrison)

[smoltchanov]

Thanks a lot! It will be helpful in August. Though Stone is incumbent too AFAIK....  And Dawkins is the only one who can legitimately be called a "very liberal". I wonder how she manages to win in her district...)))

[gespb19]

Though Stone is incumbent too AFAIK....))

Yes, you are right. His district changed due to redistricting so he's running in district 10 now. Correction made.

[smoltchanov]

Though Stone is incumbent too AFAIK....))

Yes, you are right. His district changed due to redistricting so he's running in district 10 now. Correction made.

More thanks! Of two Hale seems to be more conservative. And what about Dawkins - a Black-majority district, which may elect a very liberal white? Or - personal popularity despite this?

[gespb19]

Dawkins' district is only 34% Black VAP (see link below), and has Pass Christian and the east part of Gulfport. Both areas generally vote Republican, so I'd guess she is a likable person who can get people to support her despite her ideology. I'm not too familiar with her, but I know she's been in the senate for over 15 years now. Looking at the SOS site, her wins haven't been by huge margins. She's being challenged again in November so this may be the year that she loses.

Also, another Dawkins-type candidate is running in District 9 in Lafayette County (Oxford and Ole Miss). Cristen Hemmins is the Democrat nominee against incumbent Gray Tollison. Tollison was a Dem until he switched parties a few days after winning re-election in 2011 (!). Hemmins is a self-described progressive (a 4 letter word in Mississippi!), and was profiled in a few articles back in '11 because of her opposition to the Personhood amendment. I'm not saying she'll win, but she'll probably be backed by a lot of the local college students and young people, which may the election somewhat tight.

(Here is the link I promised that includes the demography of MS Senate districts: http://www.maris.state.ms.us/pdf/MS2010SenateDist/TRP_FINAL_REPORT.pdf)

[smoltchanov]

Even more thanks (for link too). Well, even with students 22% Black district in Mississippi will be tough nut for any progressive. We shall see how she fares (and Dawkins too). In addition - Tollison (a perfect "opportunist", who, essentially, was a center-right Democrat (far from being most conservative even in Democratic caucus) before switching, and is a "pragmatic conservative" Republican now) is an experienced politician. He will be really tough to beat.

[gespb19]

Looking at the list of House candidates running, I counted...

81 uncontested races
   - 41 Republican
   - 40 Democrats

41 contested races
   - 23 Republicans being challenged (1 independent challenger)
   - 9 Democrats being challenged (1 independent challenger)
   - 9 open seats

Big races (IMO) - names with an * are incumbents

#2 - Nick Bain* (D) vs Billy Miller (R)
#3 - William Arnold* (R) vs. Dem challenger (probably Laura Childers)
#14 - Steve Massengil*  (R) vs Justin Cluck (D)
#20 - Chris Brown* (R) vs Bo Miller (D)
#21 - Donnie Bell* (R) vs Aaron Loden (D)
#43 (open) - Paul Millsaps (D) vs GOP challenger to be determined.
#53 - Bobby Moak* (D) vs Vince Mangold (R)
#79 - Bo Eaton* (D) vs GOP challenger to be determined
#86 - Sherra Lane* (D) vs Shane Barnett (R)
#90 (open) - John Pope III (D) vs Noah Sanford (R)
#105 (open) - Roun McNeal (R) vs Dennis Cochran (D)
#121 - Carolyn Crawford* (R) vs Hunter Dawkins (D)

I'll do the Senate in a little while.

[windjammer]

Will Republicans get seats?

[gespb19]

Will Republicans get seats?

A little confused by the question: are you asking if they get seats via redistricting, or will they win any seats in November?

[windjammer]

Will Republicans get seats?

A little confused by the question: are you asking if they get seats via redistricting, or will they win any seats in November?

Sorry
Will they win any seats in November?

[gespb19]

I think the GOP starts off with 56 seats (41 uncontested + 15 contested) with the Dems at 47 (40 contested + 7 uncontested). Last 19 seats are toss-ups.

In addition to the races posted earlier, the following will probably be close:

#1 - Lester Carpenter* (R) vs Lisa Wiggins (D)
#12 - Brad Mayo* (R) vs JP Hughes (D)
#48 - Jason Butler* (R) vs Jill White (D)
#93 - Timmy Ladner* (R) vs Billy Ladner (D)
#111 - Charles Busby* (R) vs Kay Sims (D)
#122 - David Baria* (D) vs Mickey Lagasse (R)

[gespb19]

Senate - 52 total seats

33 uncontested
   - 20 Republicans
   - 13 Democrats

19 contested
   - 13 Republicans being challenged
   - 6 Democrats being challenged