Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[politicallefty]

Perhaps Alberta is not ready for an NDP government anyways. Maybe some time with a strong Opposition will help Alberta warm up to the party.  An Ontario 1990 style surprise electoral outcome would kill the NDP in Alberta for generations.

The NDP has already been effectively dead in the province for years. Provincially, they've basically been a non-factor until now. Federally, they have very little to lose. I wouldn't make the assumption that an NDP Government in Alberta is doomed to failure. In any event, failure just keeps them where they're at. A successful NDP Government could mean a very strong provincial party and potentially a significant breakthrough for the federal party (particularly in Edmonton).

[Sumner 1868]

Perhaps Alberta is not ready for an NDP government anyways. Maybe some time with a strong Opposition will help Alberta warm up to the party.  An Ontario 1990 style surprise electoral outcome would kill the NDP in Alberta for generations.

Well, there has never been a one-term Alberta government.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Northern Gateway is likely not happening, due to Aboriginal title issues. So, this is all probably symbolic politics.

[adma]

I'm not so sure if this is an "Ontario 1990" situation in the making, if only because the notion of an NDP government hereabouts jibes more with the "prairie populist" tradition.  IOW expect something more sensibly Sask-like than chaotically Ont-like...

[Njall]

8.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Anam Kazim, Applications Engineer, B.Sc-Chemical Engineering, M.Sc-BioChemical and Environmental Engineering, Calgary-Glenmore

After seeing her performance at the Calgary-Glenmore candidates forum tonight, I think it's safe to say that, qualified as she may be, she can't articulate her points to save her life.  Not that the Liberal or Alberta Party candidates did any better...

[Krago]

What surprises me is all the attention that Notley and the NDP are getting, while Jean and the Wildrose Party seem to be slipping under the media radar.  Wildrose's continuing strength in the rural areas and (to a lesser extent) Calgary make them more likely to finish with the most seats, especially with the NDP 'wasting' votes in Edmonton.  If Brian Jean becomes Premier, I can see the PCs dissolving away like the BC Socreds, as the business community abandons it en masse.  In a few years Brian Jean will be shown the door (the Alberta Tories can't resist dumping a sitting Premier in mid-term) and replaced by someone more 'suit'-able.

Alberta pundits seem so spooked by the polls that they can't come to grips with the idea of the PCs running a (poor) third.  My opinion from two time zones over is the voters want the PCs out out out, and anyone who is still Undecided is trying to pick between Wildrose and the NDP.  In the end, I see the Wildrose forming the government - Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

[DL]

I'm not so sure if this is an "Ontario 1990" situation in the making, if only because the notion of an NDP government hereabouts jibes more with the "prairie populist" tradition.  IOW expect something more sensibly Sask-like than chaotically Ont-like...

In fact it could easily be more of a "Manitoba 1969" situation in the making. In that election the NDP under Ed Schreyer shocked everyone by going from 10 seats to 29 and winning government going from being a third party to first in one election. The NDP has since become the natural party of government in Manitoba.

[lilTommy]

https://www.dropbox.com/s/a6f9pndj33rpaa9/Pantheon%20Release%20Apr%2024th.pdf?dl=0

I think what is interesting about this poll (again, who are they?) is the why were voting whomever..

for the NDP, the main reasons are Notley herself and the NDP being best to govern (31% each) that's telling, as this is not only a vote for Notley but the party's overall policy. Time and again a majority of Albertan's have agreed they want the diversification of the economy, that means not supporting every single bloody oil&gas project.

for the WR, the main reason overwhelmingly is Looking for Change (39%) and 29% for the WR being best to govern. Its telling cause I do think many Undecided PC voters, particularly in Calgary may swing WR, hell they are run by a former Conservative MP who supported Prentice so.

[RogueBeaver]

Calgary-Elbow poll from Mainstreet: PC 30, AP 29, NDP 20.

[Krago]

Edmonton-Ellerslie poll from Mainstreet: NDP 49, WR 24, PC 21, Lib 6

They also promised a new province-wide poll this morning (Mountain time).

[Hatman 🍁]

Edmonton-Ellerslie poll from Mainstreet: NDP 49, WR 24, PC 21, Lib 6

They also promised a new province-wide poll this morning (Mountain time).

Impressive numbers for one of the more suburban Edmonton ridings.

[Njall]

Edmonton-Ellerslie poll from Mainstreet: NDP 49, WR 24, PC 21, Lib 6

They also promised a new province-wide poll this morning (Mountain time).

Impressive numbers for one of the more suburban Edmonton ridings.

Ellerslie used to be quite a strong Liberal riding (it voted Liberal until 2008), and until 2012 the combined Liberal and NDP vote there tended to be between 50% and 60%.  It's also worth noting that that area (as part of Edmonton-Mill Woods) voted NDP in 1986 and 1989.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, but one wouldn't expect a riding on the outer fringe of the city to have that voting history. Any particular reason that you know of?

[DL]

I think Ellerslie is very ethnic and low income - kinda an Edmonton version of Brampton or Scarborough

[cp]

For those just joining the conversation in the exciting final week:

Tim Harper wrote an article about the state of the race in Alberta.

Meanwhile, the CBC wrote a much better article on the same.

On a separate note, when will the major papers in the province release their endorsements? Do they tend to do that for Alberta elections?

[Hatman 🍁]

More riding polls (Abingdon):

Edmonton-Whitemud:
NDP: 49
PC: 28 (inc: Former Edm. mayor Stephen Mandel)
WRP: 14
ALP: 5
Oth: 3 (Grn + Ind)

Edmonton-Casle Downs
NDP: 62
PC: 23 (inc)
WRP: 10
ALP: 5

[Krago]

I think Ellerslie is very ethnic and low income - kinda an Edmonton version of Brampton or Scarborough

Here are the Top Ten Alberta provincial divisions by Visible Minority Share of Population (2011 Census):

• 58.1% -- Calgary-Greenway
• 52.4% -- Calgary-McCall
• 43.1% -- Calgary-Cross
• 39.5% -- Calgary-Foothills
• 39.4% -- Edmonton-Mill Creek
• 31.6% -- Calgary-Buffalo
• 31.6% -- Calgary-Northern Hills
• 31.3% -- Edmonton-Ellerslie
• 30.8% -- Edmonton-Decore
• 30.0% -- Calgary-East

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. I thought McCall would be #1. I guess in Greenway, most minorities voted Tory.

[Krago]

I calculated those figures from the 2011 Census before I saw this page:
http://data.alberta.ca/data/alberta-provincial-electoral-division-profiles-2011

These profiles used the National Household Survey, which found much higher VM percentages:

70.3% -- Calgary-Greenway
68.7% -- Calgary-McCall
53.0% -- Calgary-Cross
52.5% -- Edmonton-Mill Creek
47.2% -- Calgary-Foothills
45.5% -- Calgary-Northern Hills
40.5% -- Edmonton-Ellerslie
38.3% -- Calgary-East
38.2% -- Edmonton-Whitemud
37.8% -- Edmonton-South West
36.0% -- Edmonton-Decore
35.4% -- Calgary-Buffalo
35.2% -- Edmonton-Mill Woods
32.2% -- Edmonton-Castle Downs
32.2% -- Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill
31.5% -- Edmonton-Manning
30.4% -- Calgary-Lougheed
30.0% -- Edmonton-Calder

Using the Profiles, here are highest and lowest provincial divisions for total household median income:

$187,737 -- Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
$169,486 -- Fort McMurray-Conklin
$128,412 -- Calgary-West
$124,678 -- Chestermere-Rocky View
$120,799 -- Strathcona-Sherwood Park
$114,654 -- Edmonton-Whitemud
$114,360 -- Calgary-Foothills
$112,756 -- Calgary-North West
$107,719 -- Calgary-Hays
$105,510 -- Calgary-South East
$101,951 -- Edmonton-South West
$101,801 -- Spruce Grove-St. Albert

$59,636 -- Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley
$59,524 -- Wetaskiwin-Camrose
$58,428 -- Calgary-East
$58,161 -- Calgary-Fort
$57,986 -- Cardston-Taber-Warner
$55,483 -- Medicine Hat
$54,982 -- Calgary-Buffalo
$54,895 -- Edmonton-Strathcona
$49,954 -- Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood
$47,035 -- Edmonton-Centre


Edmonton-Ellerslie ranks 27th out of 87 divisions.

[Krago]

Here are VM share maps for Calgary and Edmonton:

[DC Al Fine]

Edmonton-Ellerslie poll from Mainstreet: NDP 49, WR 24, PC 21, Lib 6

They also promised a new province-wide poll this morning (Mountain time).

Hmm. Still no poll on their website. Hurry up Mainstreet

[Krago]

Edmonton-Ellerslie poll from Mainstreet: NDP 49, WR 24, PC 21, Lib 6

They also promised a new province-wide poll this morning (Mountain time).

Hmm. Still no poll on their website. Hurry up Mainstreet

My mistake.  Last night, they tweeted:  New #abvote numbers - tomorrow AM! #ableg

I read that to mean province-wide numbers.  Instead they actually came out with the two electoral division polls.

[RogueBeaver]

Jean says he'll work with Notley to clean up corruption.

Speaking of which, though this is a very mild example.

[DL]

Unbelievable - apparently ridings polls by Abingdon in rock-ribbed conservative suburban Calgary have the NDP leading in Calgary Shaw and a close three way race in Calgary Northwest

http://www.therebel.media/_exclusive_alberta_election_poll_shows_ndp_ahead_of_pcs

[Hatman 🍁]

Calgary-Shaw went WRP last election, but the incumbent (now running for the PCs) crossed the floor.