Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

How are these "1 euro community jobs" not a modern form of slavery? I abhor ideas like that.

They are not, because the people who do them are paid 1€ hour on top of the basic welfare payment every recognized refugee automatically gets from the state (which is 860€, paid 14 times a year for single persons).

Most communities usually pay even more, way more actually, for community jobs - which is why they are really popular with middle/high school kids during summer break. I used to work at the community too for a month or two when I was in high school and earned good money (1000€ a month).

I don't see why refugees shouldn't do the same. It's a great way of getting to know the people in the community that host them and prepare them for daily work. This is working integration at its finest, instead of creating parallel societies and ghettos like we see them in France. If refugees get in touch with people in communities, the likelihood of bigotry among the local population falls significantly because the locals will value the work the immigrants do and see them as integrating. On the other hand, (Islamist) radicalisation tendencies among the immigrants and crime will fall because they are not hanging around in parks, dealing drugs and wasting away ...

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for the "Kurier" on the presidential runoff re-vote:

While the poll did not ask a head-to-head question, there's a lot of evidence in the poll results that this is a real 50-50 race again.

Hofer-voters are slightly more motivated to vote again than VdB-voters (but only by a 97% vs. 94% margin).

But VdB-voters are slightly more loyal than Hofer-voters, with 92% of originial VdB-voters saying they will vote for him again vs. 89% of original Hofer-voters.

...

Other results from the poll:

"Is it right that the runoff will be repeated, considering all the presented evidence in Court ?"

55% Yes, correct to vote again
41% No

"Who do you think is more likely to win the Oct. 2 re-vote ?"

38% Hofer (FPÖ)
34% VdB (Greens)
28% Undecided

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/umfrage-zur-bp-wahl-15-prozent-noch-unentschlossen/218.177.934

[Tender Branson]

If we use the original runoff results (50.35 VdB vs. 49.65 Hofer) and apply the results of the poll above, VdB would once again come out as the winner with 50.39% ...

(if my math is not totally wrong)

[Tender Branson]

The new Hofer-flyer, which will be handed out to people at campaign events, in front of malls etc.:




xxx xxx xxx

[PresidentSamTilden]

New Kurier/OGM poll:

"Do you support a general facial veil ban ?"

74% support a general ban
16% only in public areas such as town halls, schools, courts etc.
  9% no

Dayum, that's decisive. When do you think something like this will be enacted?

Also I have another question for you. How many refugees live in Austria now? Do they have camps like in France? I could see it being very difficult to enforce something like this in a refugee camp.

[Tender Branson]

New Kurier/OGM poll:

"Do you support a general facial veil ban ?"

74% support a general ban
16% only in public areas such as town halls, schools, courts etc.
  9% no

Dayum, that's decisive. When do you think something like this will be enacted?

Also I have another question for you. How many refugees live in Austria now? Do they have camps like in France? I could see it being very difficult to enforce something like this in a refugee camp.

It likely won't be enacted, because Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) is personally opposed to the idea of a face veil ban. He argues that it would mostly affect female tourists from the Gulf, who are spending money mostly in Vienna and Zell am See (my home town).

There are currently 119.000 refugees in Austria. Most of them live in quarters of up to 50 people, but many are also in private quarters or in smaller towns. Most of the refugee women are not wearing a face veil anyway, just a headscarf (nobody wants to ban those). It's more the female tourists from the arch-conservative Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia) who are wearing face veils.

[Tender Branson]

A Swiss newspaper has an article titled "Austrian Presidential election: from sloppiness to pedantry."

...

And indeed: This election will be the cleanest in history and the one with the best-trained election officials. The BMI handed out a 50-page instruction folder for election officials and every official will undergo mandatory e-learning this month.

And not only that: The election officials are instructed to implement the election law as written. Which means no journalists will be allowed in voting precincts to take pictures/videos of politicians or voters when they are casting their ballots.

And no politician/voter is allowed anymore to throw their ballot into the box personally. They need to hand their ballot over to the election commission head, who then throws the ballot into the box in front of all other party election commission members ...

Also: no early election results will be released to the media before polls are closed everywhere (early results to the media could impact people who are still voting, the Court ruling found). That means the usual 1st projection will not come at 5pm, but at 5:15 pm.

There will also be no Austria-wide result published on Sunday, a total result will only be published on Monday night after all postal ballots are counted.

[Tender Branson]

VdB (Greens) released his medical records today and according to them he's of good health and he has no cancer.

Far-right wing groups are spreading rumours on social media that VdB has cancer and is only expected to live for another year ...

http://derstandard.at/2000043614964/Van-der-Bellen-veroeffentlicht-Befunde-Kein-Krebs

[rob in cal]

  So on election day what results will we have to look at after the polls close? Exit polls, partial returns?

[Tender Branson]

 So on election day what results will we have to look at after the polls close? Exit polls, partial returns?

The first projection will come at around 5:15pm this time, about 15 minutes after polls close. This first projection is like the usual first projections we have seen in other elections (just with the difference that they are getting the data of counted precincts only after all polls have closed).

The first projection has a MoE of around +/- 1.5% and the MoE will get smaller as the evening goes on (more precincts being counted).

After every precinct is counted, we'll get municipal/district/state results of course (but no Austria-wide result). But I guess someone will simply add the 9 state results together and publish an Austria-wide result on Sunday, because adding them together isn't really hard ...

Then, on Monday (after all postal ballots were counted), there will be a final end result announced in the evening.

Also: There is no exit poll in Austria, there is a telephone survey over the election weekend which asks voters how they voted and which has a breakdown by subgroups.

[Tender Branson]

New ATV/Austria Trend poll (no link yet, but I saw it in the 19:20 news about 30 minutes ago):

Sample = 750

51% VdB (Greens)
49% Hofer (FPÖ)

Projected turnout: 75% (+2)

83% of those polled have already firmly decided on their choice.

[Tender Branson]

In the raw data with undecideds it's 43% VdB, 39% Hofer - but in the projection with leaners it's 51-49 VdB.

Green, SPÖ and NEOS voters all back VdB by wide margins.

FPÖ voters are obviously backing Hofer by huge margins.

ÖVP voters are the "swing voters": 51% VdB, 36% Hofer (among the raw vote).

[Tender Branson]

Both candidates, VdB and Hofer, are visiting the "Air Power 2016" today.

The Air Power in rural Styria is a huge show of fighter jets, military transport aircraft and helicopters visited by 500.000 people this weekend.

It's understandable that Hofer would visit it, but it's kinda strange that the Green VdB does.

Just 15 years ago, VdB was so left and anti-military that he wanted to abolish the Austrian army altogether ...

Maybe VdB thinks he'll get more voters there (rural Styria voted for Hofer with between 55% and 75%).

[Tender Branson]

In potentially good news for VdB, I have seen much more of his election posters in the area so far, where there were previously none in the original runoff.

VdB has collected 1.5 million € in donations so far (which is 5x that of the first two rounds combined). This helps him to be way more present with posters in the rural areas, where Hofer-posters outnumbered VdB-posters by about 10:1 in the original runoff (according to what I saw).

The Hofer-posters are still not around here ...

The Greens/VdB were previously thought to be outspent by the FPÖ/Hofer by about 3 million to 1.5 million, but VdB's donation surge recently might be enough to keep it close ... (= 3 million each).

[Tender Branson]

Pictures of VdB and Hofer campaigning at the "Air Power 2016":









And ... they actually ran into each other at some point and shook hands (with Hofer saying: "We didn't see each other in a while."):

[Tender Branson]

Hofer/FPÖ are out with a campaign ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IVFRwWEyjA

And a campaigning video (yes, the FPÖ has its own TV channel):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldIWTuIFxuw

[Tender Branson]

VdB/Greens have also released a campaign ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCW5JeV7ZNo

[Tender Branson]

Hofer campaigning for the African-Austrian vote:

[Tender Branson]

Major CEO's of big Austrian companies (most of them from the ÖVP and NEOS) are launching a campaign against Hofer and the FPÖ's "Auxit" fantasies:



The ad above will apear in major newspapers in the next weeks.

It reads:

"If Hofer comes. Auxit comes. Unemployment comes. No to Auxit ! *Every 2nd job in Austria depends on export, 70% of our exports go into the EU."

[Omega21]

Hofer is a miracle. A miracle that got 50% of the vote even though everyone in the political/business elite is against him. It is only logical that companies profit from 100 000 new people who get 850+ euros to spend per month ...

[Tender Branson]

PANIC !

Over the weekend, a postal ballot was discovered which was falling apart because the glue dissipated on the sides.

PANIC !!

The Interior Ministry was so shocked that they ordered all communities in Austria to check their postal ballots today.

2 more ballots where discovered which fell apart.

Out of 1.5 million printed ballots ...

PANIC !!!

[Tender Branson]

The Ministry and especially the media is making a big deal out of this "postal ballots falling apart !" or "It's the glue, stupid !" story ...

But stuff like this happens in every election, in every country. Usually, nobody takes notice of it because it's very low key and the damaged ballots get replaced (if they are not signed yet) so that people can still vote.

Besides, machines at the printing factory always have small errors and the ballots all get rigorously checked by the municipal workers before they are sent to voters. Which means not more than a handful of these ballots actually arrive at the voter ...

Austrian election officials need to take a chill pill, or they will end in a mental facility due to stress - even before the election takes place ...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Austrian election officials need to take a chill pill, or they will end in a mental facility due to stress - even before the election takes place ...

Considering the court ruling on the last election it's not really surprising that they are a bit tense. I mean... you don't want to go through a THIRD Hofer vs. Van Der Bellen election now do you???

Well actually, you probably would like to see that, but I'm pretty sure the general public who are not die-hard Austrian politicos don''t share the enthusiasm.

[rob in cal]

  There are probably several of us on Atlas who wouldn't mind a third Hofer VDB match as its helping us get through a dry spell in European national elections.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian election officials need to take a chill pill, or they will end in a mental facility due to stress - even before the election takes place ...

Considering the court ruling on the last election it's not really surprising that they are a bit tense. I mean... you don't want to go through a THIRD Hofer vs. Van Der Bellen election now do you???

Well actually, you probably would like to see that, but I'm pretty sure the general public who are not die-hard Austrian politicos don''t share the enthusiasm.

No, thank you.

I'd rather see a snap parliamentary election some point next year.