UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Slow Learner]

It's the LibDems. Overperforming in Tory by-elections is their thing.

[Phony Moderate]

They've been doing it in council by-elections for over a year now o/c.

[joevsimp]

I think that they will carry on doing well in areas like this, but I don't think we'll see them (credibly) trying to outflank Labour from the left in urban seats any time soon.

[Phony Moderate]

I think that they will carry on doing well in areas like this, but I don't think we'll see them (credibly) trying to outflank Labour from the left in urban seats any time soon.

You can't really put anything past the Lib Dems...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Notable thing here is what didn't happen; yes there was a Liberal Surge^TM but no tactical flow of votes from Labour despite all the old tricks being played. For the moment at least Clegg's legacy lives on...

[YL]

It looks like Zac Goldsmith is about to resign as an MP over the Heathrow decision, triggering a Richmond Park by-election.

I don't think he's ever specified whether he'd actually stand in it, but it would make most sense if he did stand as an independent.  (It surely makes no sense for him to be an official Tory candidate, standing as the Government party's candidate to protest against a Government decision.)

Richmond Park was Lib Dem held from 1997 to 2010.

[parochial boy]

The Lib Dems are going to wet themselves.

If Zac does stand again; he was a leave campaigner in the EU ref, and Richmond voted 70%-30% to stay in.

Although that will pay off against his perceived integrity in resigning now.

[Silent Hunter]

Doing this sort of stunt didn't do David Davis any long-term harm...

[Blair]

They won't- but the Greens and Labour should stand down

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is going to be a completely ridiculous circus. But that's British politics in the Year of Our Lord 2016.

[Silent Hunter]

This is going to be a completely ridiculous circus. But that's British politics in the Year of Our Lord 2016.

Politics in this country went crazy on 24 June this year. I mean that.

[dadge]

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Voters may be less interested in his "integrity" (What a farce it would be if every MP resigned whenever they disagreed with a govt decision) and more in his stupidity for carrying out his threat. The by election will waste £££ and will resolve nothing Heathrow-wise since his main challenger agrees with him on the thing he's resigning about. Meanwhile it gives the Lib Dems/Remainers six weeks to air their grievances about Brexit and racism, two things that Zac would rather not talk about.

[Zinneke]

Will Vince Cable want to contest this seat? His neck of the woods.

[parochial boy]

Will Vince Cable want to contest this seat? His neck of the woods.

The Lib Dems have nominated Sarah Olney as their candidate - apparently she's only been a member since the last General Election.

So I'm not sure if there is scope for Cable to replace Olney as candidate.

[Phony Moderate]

They won't- but the Greens and Labour should stand down

Why? As a working-class person I couldn't care less whether the Tories or the Lib Dems win. It's a battle between cancer and dementia.

[joevsimp]

They won't- but the Greens and Labour should stand down

Why should they? If anything the Liberals should. Goldsmith is lukewarmly in favour of expanding gatwick or stanstead "if and when necessary" but not yet. We're  against any airport expansion and Labour are asking for "assurances" presumably so that they can work out whether the fag packet with their policy written on it is stuck to their arse or their elbow.

With the Tories not standing am official candidate (presumanly so that they don't have to boot Zac out once he's finished with his song and dance) we're  heading for the farcical situation of a byelection being fought on a single issue with no candidate in favour of one side of the argument and the main challenger trying to fight it on a totally different single issue. It's like Haltemprice and Howden all over again but worse (And hopefully we can go one better than then and get a clear 10%)

[Slow Learner]

They won't- but the Greens and Labour should stand down

Why should they? If anything the Liberals should. Goldsmith is lukewarmly in favour of expanding gatwick or stanstead "if and when necessary" but not yet. We're  against any airport expansion and Labour are asking for "assurances" presumably so that they can work out whether the fag packet with their policy written on it is stuck to their arse or their elbow.

With the Tories not standing am official candidate (presumanly so that they don't have to boot Zac out once he's finished with his song and dance) we're  heading for the farcical situation of a byelection being fought on a single issue with no candidate in favour of one side of the argument and the main challenger trying to fight it on a totally different single issue. It's like Haltemprice and Howden all over again but worse (And hopefully we can go one better than then and get a clear 10%)

Erm...why should the LibDems step down when they're the ones who've actually held this seat as little as six years ago? I don't think Labour should stand down, but that's a bit unfair.

Davis got away with HnH because he was standing against a Labour government's policy. ZacAttack probably won't be so lucky.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

No Airport expansion, zilch? Like not even just no net expansion (e.g. close City for an expanded Heathrow etc.?)

This whole airport expansion deal confuses me. Especially as seemingly everybody was aware of the HeathrowHub proposal (i.e. expand the Northern runway), didn't point out anything explicitly wrong with it and then proceed with the very flawed Gatwick/third runway plans, anyway.

[joevsimp]

I meant that it would make most sense policy wise for the lib dems to stand down for Goldsmith since they are the closest in policy over airport expansion. But if they're going to run on a different issue then the rest of us should treat it as business as usual: I'm resigned to Brexit happening regardless (eventually) not convinced that the Progressive Alliance(tm) will ever happen * and, frankly, there are enough far worse specimens in the Tory party than ZG that  A.N. Other Lib Dem probably won't be enough of an improvement to realign the political landscape over, I doubt that the  Labour and Green candidates would poll much more than 15% so the lib dems should win on a similar swing to witney from a higher  starting point and with a much lower floor for labour

* having said that though. If Labour stand down first and are willing to make some serious commitments on cooperation for next year and beyond to 2020, then it's worth a go. I just can't see richmond or any other clp agreeing to stand down

[joevsimp]

No Airport expansion, zilch? Like not even just no net expansion (e.g. close City for an expanded Heathrow etc.?)

This whole airport expansion deal confuses me. Especially as seemingly everybody was aware of the HeathrowHub proposal (i.e. expand the Northern runway), didn't point out anything explicitly wrong with it and then proceed with the very flawed Gatwick/third runway plans, anyway.

It's certainly no new runways in the south east (a catchy slogan if ever there was one) not sure about better use of capacity elsewhere (IE  improving rail access and terminal at Luton, dispersing more holiday traffic to there, Southend etc) my workplace is not exactly compatible with me looking up chapters from the Manifesto for Sustainable Society.

As for the Heathrow hub runway extension, it was an independent proposal backed by nobody and you'd still have the problem of crossing the M25. It did address some of the access issues though, and if HS2 ever gets built I'd love to see the option of trains reversing onto the great western line at old oak common to go on to heathrow; 20% of Manchester's passengers are flying connecting flights to heathrow atm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A certain former LibDem MP for Richmond has just done her usual thing again, which is presumably not wonderful news for the party here.

A comment from a LibDem member elsewhere made me laugh:

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[joevsimp]

Well Labour have at least one potential candidate.  And a pro-runway onre at that

http://wembleymatters.blogspot.com/2016/10/pro-heathrow-cllr-stopp-throws-his-hat.html

[parochial boy]

We have our first poll

GOLDSMITH (Ind) 56% (down 2 from the Con share in 2015)
OLNEY (Lib Dem) 29% (up 10 from the LD share in 2015)
LABOUR 10% (-2)
OTHER 5% (-5)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Constituency polling is (as I pointed out to everyone endlessly last year AND WAS PROVEN RIGHT) trash, but a gap like that is indicative I guess.

[Silent Hunter]

Better add Sleaford and North Hykeham to this list