India 2016 Assembly elections - April 4 to May 16 2016

[jaichind]

Assam polls: Man divorces wife after she votes for BJP
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/assam-polls-man-divorces-wife-after-she-votes-for-bjp/1/643411.html

I guess this is a sign of the level of polarization in Assam which in turn created a large turnout.  If so this is good news for INC and BJP and bad news for AIUDF, BPF, and AGP.

[jaichind]

In somewhat unrelated news to the 5 assembly elections, it seems that there is a new push for JD(U), RLD, JVM, and SJP to merge.  The original plan was for JD(U), RJD, SP, INLD, JD(S), and SJP to merge and put back the pieces of the original JD.  That fell apart as a result of recriminations between SP and JD(U)-RJD in the Bihar Assembly elections.  Now the new JD(U) plan is go for a merger with RLD, JVM, and SJP. The idea here is RLD will become the face of JD(U) in UP while JVM (which is a BJP splinter and not even from JD) will become the face of JD(U) in Jharkhand.  SJP is really a non-entity with some small influence in UP in a very localized area which will just merge into JD(U). Not clear if this plan will actually take place.

[jaichind]

Now all the numbers are in for Assam turnout the results are 78% in the first phase which is mostly Upper Assam which is a surge of 3% on top of 2011 while the second phase which is Lower Assam reached a massive 85%.  This seems to indicate that in Upper Assam BJP-AGP most likely have have upper hand given this turnout pattern given BJP-AGP wipping up local fear of AIUDF and their Bengali Mulsim base.  In Lower Assam such a massive turnout most likley means large scale Bengali Muslim tactical voting for INC to block BJP-AGP-BPF from being the largest bloc.  If so the BJP-AGP-BPF plan for Upper Assam worked but failed in Lower Assam.  Most likely result would then be neither INC nor BJP-AGP-BPF have a majority and a much reduce AIUDF will hold the balance of power.

[ag]

Assam polls: Man divorces wife after she votes for BJP

Good guy! A true hero!

[jaichind]

From the way the campaigning is going all signs are that in WB the race between AITC vs LF-INC is tightening.   AITC is much more aggressive on the ground now that it sees a real chance of losing.  There are also signs that BJP has bottomed out and might be rebounding.  The main LF-INC fear now is that they have an advantage over AITC but the BJP will eat into the anti-AITC vote to let AITC through.  Most of the recent LF-INC effort has been to run against a secret AITC-BJP pact to draw anti-AITC and pro-AITC Muslim votes toward LF-INC.

[jaichind]

I never thought such a picture was ever possible until this year


INC Vice President Rahul Gandhi and former WB CM and CPM leader Buddhadeb on the same stage with the INC symbol in the background.

To be fair INC and CPM has had alliances before in 1999 and 2004 in places like Punjab Bihar TN and AP but the CPM core in WB would never touch INC until now and those states were states that CPM was very weak anyway so it might as well form tactical alliances with INC to beat BJP.   CPM had been on CPI's case for decades after the 1970s for CPI's alliance with INC in the 1970s in core CPI states.  Now it is doing the same.

[reciprocity]

I never thought such a picture was ever possible until this year


INC Vice President Rahul Gandhi and former WB CM and CPM leader Buddhadeb on the same stage with the INC symbol in the background.

To be fair INC and CPM has had alliances before in 1999 and 2004 in places like Punjab Bihar TN and AP but the CPM core in WB would never touch INC until now and those states were states that CPM was very weak anyway so it might as well form tactical alliances with INC to beat BJP.   CPM had been on CPI's case for decades after the 1970s for CPI's alliance with INC in the 1970s in core CPI states.  Now it is doing the same.

I assume the INC is getting desperate for relevance. It seems like Modi has built up a very loyal base of voters - if Twitter is to be believed.

[jaichind]

I never thought such a picture was ever possible until this year


INC Vice President Rahul Gandhi and former WB CM and CPM leader Buddhadeb on the same stage with the INC symbol in the background.

To be fair INC and CPM has had alliances before in 1999 and 2004 in places like Punjab Bihar TN and AP but the CPM core in WB would never touch INC until now and those states were states that CPM was very weak anyway so it might as well form tactical alliances with INC to beat BJP.   CPM had been on CPI's case for decades after the 1970s for CPI's alliance with INC in the 1970s in core CPI states.  Now it is doing the same.

I assume the INC is getting desperate for relevance. It seems like Modi has built up a very loyal base of voters - if Twitter is to be believed.

This is very much true.  Both INC and CPM are not in good shape across the board.  Of course INC is taking a big risk with this in WB.  It risk with this alliance with LF losing what is left of its base in WB to AITC.  What is worse is that it risks AITC going over to BJP like it did back in the 1998-2009 period (with a brief AITC alliance with INC in 2001).  The worse case for INC would be LF-INC and AITC both without a majority and BJP holding the balance of power.

[jaichind]

I guess its time I write about the history of WB assembly elections.  Like TN and Kerela it is also a story of mega fronts, grand alliances, and also the longevity of the CPM+ government in 1977-2009.  I will start with 1962 since I find it too much work to map out the 1951 and 1957 elections.  

In 1951 the INC won a majority with fairly small 39% of the vote mainly because Hindu based BJS-HMS did very well in WB and split the anti-INC vote with CPI.  BJS (which is proto-BJP) founder Mukherjee being from WB had a lot to do with it.  He pass away in 1953 which meant that in 1957 most of the BJS-HMS votes went to INC but CPI itself also grew as well to fill the opposition space with a tactical alliance with PSP and FBL.  INC won a similar majority in 1957 with around 46% of the vote.

[jaichind]

WB 1962

When 1962 came around the CPI-PSP alliance of 1957 fell apart with both leading separate blocs.  CPM+ using its tried and tested united front tactics of backing various independents in its bloc.  INC was also in trouble as well given the large number of rebels that seems to have appeared in its ranks.  SWA did split from INC since 1957 and joined the HMS-BJS alliance but had little impact.  Gorkha based GL ran separately in Gorkha regions,  The result was a INC majority similar to 1951 and 1957.


                     Contest        Won          Vote share
INC                   252           157            47.29%

INC rebel            29              1               2.29%

CPI+                235            80             36.78%
 CPI                 145             50             24.96%  
 FBL                   34            13               4.61%
 RSP                  17              9               2.56%
 WPI                   1               0               0.20%
 Ind.                 38               8               4.44%

CPI rebel            7               1               0.41%

PSP+              135              9               7.55%
 PSP                 87              5                4.99%
 SUC                10              0                0.66%
 LSS                  9               4               0.62%
 Ind.                29               0               1.28%

PSP rebel           5              1                0.45%
SUC rebel          2              0                0.15%
LSS rebel          1               0                0.02%

HMS+             81               0               2.32%
 HMS               25              0                0.80%
 SWA               24              0               0.58%
 BJS                25              0                0.45%
 Ind.                 7              0                0.49%
    
GL                   4               2                0.40%
 
SBP               16               1                0.61%

INC won despite large scale rebellions due to the CPI-PSP split.  These rebellions are a harbinger of the future.  Soon after the 1962 elections INC splinter BAC was formed taking a good bloc of the INC vote base with them.  CPI itself also split at the national level with CPM splitting out from CPI.  PSP also split with SSP splitting from PSP.  FBL and CPI joined hands with BAC while SSP allied with CPM.

[jaichind]

WB 1967

WB 1967 elections were held in a situation of political chaos.  INC CPI PSP all split and as a result multiple political blocs were formed.  INC ran by itself but INC splinter BAC managed to get CPI FBL PSP and LSS into its bloc in an attempt to emerge as the main opposition force to INC.  Gorkha based renamed IGL also went with BAC.  CPM went with RSP, SSP, and SUC.  MFB which is a FB splinter went with CPM.  The result was no bloc having an majority with the INC being the most powerful bloc while BAC+ and CPM+ emerging equally powerful. 

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
INC                   280           127            41.13%

INC rebel            22              0               1.07%

CPM+               230             72            27.71%
 CPM                135             43             18.11%
 SSP                  24               7               2.08%
 RSP                  16               8               2.53%
 SUC                   7               4               1.17%
 WPI                   2               2               0.38%
 MFB                   1               1               0.23%
 Ind.                 45               7               3.21%

SSP rebel           1                0               0.03%
CPM rebel           8                1              0.42%

BAC+              235             78            24.99%
 BAC                 78             34             10.07%
 CPI                  61             16               6.52%
 FBL                 40              13              4.29%
 PSP                 14                7              1.62%
 LSS                   6               5               0.68%
 IGL                   4               2               0.40%
 Ind.                32               1               1.40% 

PSP rebel           5               0               0.22%
FBL rebel           3               0               0.14%
BAC rebel           3               0               0.13%
CPI rebel            5               0               0.26%

BJS+               78               2               2.21%
 BJS                 56               1               1.31%
 SWA               21               1               0.85%
 Ind.                  1               0               0.05%

After the elections the BAC+ bloc and CPM+ bloc formed an alliance with BAC founder and leader Ajoy Mukherjee being CM.   Soon afterwards the Naxal rebellion led by Maoist rebels gave the central government the excuse to dismiss the government.  A INC government was installed but did not last long.  This lead to the elections of 1969 where a United Front was formed with most members of the 1967 CPM+ and BAC+ fusing into a grand coalition.  CPM was the leader of the Front but it projected  Mukherjee  as its CM candidate to take on the INC.

 

[jaichind]

WB 1969

The dismissal of the Mukherjee government provoked a massive grand alliance known as United Front which pretty much included all the non-INC opposition parties.  Since it is led by CPM I will refer to it as CPM+ even thought it projects Mukherjee as its CM candidate.   PSP choose not to participate and ran on its own. NDF and LKD were INC splinters also ran separately.   The Muslim PML also appeared on the scene in WB taking away some of the Muslim vote base of INC.  The result was a massive landslide by United Front even as INC retained its vote base.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
INC                   280            55            41.32%

INC rebel              3              1               0.30%

CPM+               278          215            50.60%
 CPM                  97            80             19.97%
 BAC                  49            33               8.17%
 CPI                   36            30               7.00%
 FBL                   28           21               5.01%
 RSP                  17            12               2.80%
 SSP                  15             9                1.86%
 SUC                   7             7                 1.51%
 LSS                   6              4                0.74%
 IGL                    4             4                 0.53%
 RCI                    2              2               0.38%
 WPI                   2              2                0.35%
 MFB                   1              1               0.02%
 Ind.                 14            10               2.24%

BAC rebel           1             0                 0.11%
CPM rebel         12             0                 0.50%

BJS+                 65           0                 1.21%
 BJS                  50           0                 0.89%
 HMS                  8            0                 0.15%
 BBC                   2            0                 0.06%
 SWA                 2            0                  0.06%
 PBK                   3           0                  0.05%

PSP                  24           5                  1.31%

PML                 40           3                  1.56%

LKD                 58            0                1.04%

The United Front government was installed after the election.   But soon tensions appeared inside the UF government.   BAC CPI and FBL resented power of the CPM given its numbers and the government fell as CPM broke with BAC-CPI-FBL.  Also INC itself split at the national level with the WB INC split down the middle as NCO broke away from INC.  BJS aligned with NCO at the national level and did the same in WB.  BAC also then fell out with CPI as the mid-term 1971 elections were called with a 5 way contest of INC vs CPM+ vs CPI+ vs NCO vs BAC.

[jaichind]

WB 1971

The 1971 WB assembly elections was held concurrently with the LS elections.  At the national level INC and CPI had various tactical understandings including a partial understanding in WB.  At the assembly level something similar took place but to a much lesser extent. NCO is out to prove that it is the real INC in WB, while various small Left parties went with CPM+.  CPI+ has FBL SUC PSP SSP and IGL.  BAC failed to form an alliance with CPI and has gone separately as well.  The result was a fractured mandate with INC and CPM+ becoming the two largest blocs with neither anywhere close to majority.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+                 251          106            30.09%
 INC                  238          105             29.18%
 Ind.                   13              1               0.91%

INC rebel            10             0                0.48%

CPM+               276          126            35.48%
 CPM                 241         113             32.86%
 WPI                    3              2               0.49%
 MFB                   2              2                0.39%
 RCI                    4              3                0.31%
 BBC                   2              1                0.12%
 BIB                    2              0                0.07%
 Ind.                 22              5                1.24%

RCI rebel            1              0                 0.04%
CPM rebel           3              0                 0.12%

CPI+               239           28               15.24%
 CPI                 110           13                8.46%
 FBL                  52             3                2.90%
 SUC                 27             7                1.59%
 PSP                  16             3                1.11%
 SSP                  22            0                 0.53%
 IGL                    3             2                0.30%
 Ind.                   9             0                 0.36%

SSP rebel            1             0                0.04%

NCO+             243            3                6.48%
 NCO               219            2                5.60%
 BJS                  23            1                0.82%
 Ind.                   1            0                0.06%

BAC+             141             5                5.56%
 BAC               137            5                 5.39%
 Ind.                  4             0                 0.17%

PML                 32             6                 2.13%

RSP                  40            3                 2.05%
 
JKP                   23            2                 0.62%

LSS                 11             0                 0.41%

The split nature of the result meant that no government can be formed.  As a result new elections were called for 1972.  The developments that led up to the 1972 elections worked greatly to the advantage of INC.  First BAC's election results in 1971 were such so that it mostly decided to merge back into INC.  NCO also failed to prove that it was the real INC and as a result a lot of its supporters went back to INC especially given the fact that at the national level the INC won in a landslide in the LS elections.  The relative success of INC-CPI tactical understanding in 1971 a across India provoked CPI to formally join INC+ bloc.  SSP and PSP mostly merged into SOP but could not stop the exodus of support to CPM or INC.   CPI allies like FBL and SUC went over to CPM to couteract this massive INC-CPI bloc as well as RSP.

[jaichind]

WB 1972

WB required an assembly election in 1972 because the 1971 election could not produce a viable government.  The 5 way contest of 1971 has been whittled down to a bipolar contest between INC-CPI versus the CPM led bloc.  BAC merged into INC and NCO is pretty much a non-entity.   The result was an unprecedented massive majority for INC+ bloc both in terms of seats and vote share. 

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+                 280          253            57.74%
 INC                   237         216             49.08%
 CPI                     41           35               8.33%
 Ind.                     2              2               0.34%

INC rebel              2              1               0.27%

CPM+                279           20             35.46%
 CPM                 208           14              27.45%
 FBL                    18             0               2.48%
 RSP                    17            3                2.14%
 SUC                   13             1               1.79%
 WPI                     3             1               0.48%
 BIB                      1             0               0.10%
 Ind.                     9             1               1.13%

CPM rebel             1             0               0.03%
FBL rebel              1             0               0.17%

NCO+                 77            2                2.37%
 NCO                   64            2               1.47%
 Ind.                   13            0                0.90%

MUL                    27           1                0.91%

IGL                      3            2                0.27%

SOP                   26             0               0.82%

JKP                    20             0               0.52%

The massive landslide of INC-CPI ended the political chaos in WB since 1967.  Then came the Emergency of 1975 which in turn provoked the merger of SOP NCO BJS into JNP.  When LS elections came in 1977 JNP aligned with CPM+ and crushed INC-CPI.  In the aftermath of that defeat CPI broke away from INC as INC much it support base to the new ruling party JNP.  A few months later assembly elections were held in WB where it was expected that the JNP will continue in the CPM+ front.  Instead JNP decided to go on its own feeling that it will capture the main anti-INC vote bloc.

[jaichind]

WB 1977

The WB 1977 assembly elections were held a few months after the 1977 LS elections where INC-CPI was crushed across Northern India including WB.  In the aftermath of that landslide defeat INC bleed support toward JNP while CPI broke away from INC.   FBL renamed itself AIFB while SUC exited from CPM+ bloc.  The CPM+ bloc JNP alliance that swept the LS elections in WB fell apart mostly due to JNP's insistence on trying to capture power on its own despite LF's desire to continue the alliance.  This was a critical error by JNP and paved the way for CPM+ domination of WB politics from 1977 to 2009.  CPM+ won a landslide victory with the non-CPM+ vote split between INC and JNP.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+                 294           20              23.49%
 INC                   290           20             23.02%
 Ind.                     4              0                0.47%

INC rebel            32              2                1.69%

CPM+                294         232             46.09%
 CPM                 224          178             35.46%
 AIFB                  36            26               5.33%
 RSP                   23            20               3.74%
 RCI                      3             2                0.37%
 BBC                     2             1                0.25%
 MFB                     2             2                0.23%
 WPI                     1             0                0.15%
 Ind.                     3             3                0.55%

CPM rebel           10             1                0.60%
WPI rebel             1             0                0.05%

JNP+                294           29              20.22%
 JNP                 289           29               20.02%
 Ind.                    5             0                 0.20%

SUC                  29             4                 1.48%

CPI                   63             2                 2.62%

MUL                  32             1                0.38%

CPI(ML)              1              1                0.09%

IGL                    3              2                0.24%

CPM+ was swept into power with a CPM CM and proceed to consolidate itself in power in WB. CPI who was totally out in the wilderness came crawling back joined CPM+ as a probation member especially in light of INC turning to the Right before and after 1977.   Having missed its chance at power the national environment soon turned against JNP where its national government fell apart and JNP split.  The 1980 LS election returned INC back to power even as CPM+ won in WB against INC.   All this had the effect of pushing the JNP base back toward INC as the only viable force to oppose CPM+.  As a result as the 1982 WB assembly election came around it was a bipolar contest between CPM+ versus INC.

[jaichind]

WB 1982

When the WB 1982 assembly election came around CPM+ has pretty much consolidated itself in power in WB while JNP has disappeared in irrelevance.  BJP split from JNP in 1980 but is also irrelevant just like BJS was pre-1977.   IGL and MUL joined INC+ bloc as a way to counter the domination of CPM+.  Even ICS which split from INC in 1979 decided to go with INC+ bloc as a way to counter CPM+.  WPI, a micro Leftist party,  left CPM+ to contest on its own.  With CPI joining CPM+ the CPM+ bloc won a large majority beating back INC+ even as INC+ did consolidate itself as the main alternative to CPM+.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+                 294           54              41.80%
 INC                   248          49              35.69%
 ICS                     28            4                3.94%
 MUL                     4             0                0.57%
 IGL                      2             1                0.20%
 Ind.                   12             0                1.41%

INC rebel              7             0                 0.37%

CPM+                294         238              52.78%
 CPM                 209          174             38.49%
 AIFB                  34            28               5.90%
 RSP                   23            19               4.01%
 CPI                    12             7                1.81%
 Ind.                   16           10                2.56%

CPM rebel           11             0                0.60%

JNP+                 94             0                0.91%
 JNP                   93             0               0.83%
 Ind.                    1             0                0.08%

SUC                  34              2                1.03%                

BJP                   52              0                0.58%

JKP                     1              0                0.10%

CPI(ML)              1              0                0.09%

WPI                    1              0                0.06%

CPM+ was returned to power.  In the 1984 LS elections in the aftermath of the Indira Gandhi assassination INC+ and CPM+ were neck-to-neck in WB in terms of seats and vote share.  This gave hope to INC+ that it could win in the 1987 WB assembly elections. Rajiv Gandhi put a lot of effort toward making that happen even as MUL broke away from INC+.  

[jaichind]

WB 1987

INC made concerned effort to defeat CPM+ in the 1987 assembly elections throwing in their most valuable asset Rajiv Gandhi.  It mostly backfired and rallied the CPM+ front who surged to victory keeping INC vote share to a similar level as 1982 and in fact lost some seats.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
INC                  294            40              41.81%

INC rebel              8             0                0.43%

CPM+                294         251              52.96%
 CPM                 213          187             39.30%
 AIFB                  34            26               5.84%
 RSP                   23            18               3.94%
 CPI                    12           11                1.92%
 Ind.                   12             9                1.96%

CPM rebel             6             0                0.41%

MUL                  36              0                0.62%

BJP                   57              0                0.51%

JKP                     1              0                0.08%

WPI                    1              0                0.06%

Rajiv Gandhi lost a lot of credibility for this defeat and contributed to his defeat in the LS elections in 1989 which brought JD minority government to power at the center.  BJP surged by leap and bounds especially in its competition with JD with BJP pushing for Hindu-Muslim polarization while JD pushing for OBC-Upper Caste polarization.  BJP became a major force in the 1991 elections even as it is still mostly a CPM+ vs INC+ battle.

[jaichind]

WB 1991

WB 1991 Assembly elections took place at the same time as the LS elections and voting took place before the Rajiv Gandhi assassination when the main narrative was the surge of the BJP in the context of Hindu-Muslim polarization.  In the end while the BJP took votes from both the INC+ and CPM+ blocs, it was not enough for it to win any seats in the bipolar  setup in WB.  CPM+ won in a similar pattern to 1982 and 1987.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+                 294           47             36.44%
 INC                   284          43              35.12%
 GNLF                    3            3                0.47%
 JKP                       4            1                0.45%
 UCPI                    1             0                0.13%
 Ind.                     2             0                0.27%

INC rebel              4             0                0.43%

CPM+                294         245              48.84%
 CPM                 213          189             36.87%
 AIFB                  34            29               5.51%
 RSP                   23            18               3.47%
 CPI                    11             5                1.54%
 JD                       8              1                0.67%
 DSP(PC)              1              1                0.17%
 RCPI(RB)             1              1                0.12%
 RCPI                    1             0                0.18%
 ABGL                   1             0                0.11%
 Ind.                     1             1                0.19%

CPM rebel             6             0                0.41%

BJP                   291             0              11.34%

SUC                     7              2                0.47%

JMM                   23              0                0.31%

CPM+ was returned to power.  Over the 1991-1996 period BJP power began to decline and relative partisan makeup reverted to the pre-1990 norm.  Although the BJP surge and decline did seem to shift things around to the slight advantage of the INC+ bloc.

[jaichind]

WB 1996

WB 1996 assembly elections again took place at the same time as LS elections.  At the federal level the ruling INC was getting unpopular and INC saw major reverses in the rest of India.  INC+ actually gained relative to 1991 in WB mostly because growing anti-incumbency for CPM+ as well as the fact that the decline of the BJP from 1991 seems to have benefited INC+ more.  Overall INC+ gained some seats since 1991 but nowhere enough to dislodge CPM+.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+                 294           86             40.13%
 INC                   288          82              39.48%
 GNLF                    3            3                0.44%
 JKP(N)                  2            1                0.21%
 Ind.                     1             0                0.01%

JKP(N)                  6             0                0.19%
INC rebel              3             1                0.30%

CPM+                294         203              49.32%
 CPM                 217          157             37.92%
 AIFB                  34            21               5.20%
 RSP                   23            18               3.72%
 CPI                    12             6                1.75%
 JD                       5              0                0.29%
 RCPI(RB)             1              1                0.29%
 Ind.                     1             1                0.16%

CPM rebel             4             1                 0.23%
FB(S)                 20              1                0.34%

BJP                   292             0                6.45%

JMM                    29             0                0.46%

ABGL                   3              0                0.12%

SUC                     6             2                 0.44%

CPM+ again returned to power in WB.  At the center 1996 LS elections produced a Third Front government with outside support from INC and Left Front.  Tired of losing and fearful of that the arrangement at the center will make it even less likely for the INC to take on CPM+ a large bloc of INC in WB broke off and formed AITC under Mamata Banerjee in 1998 and formed an alliance with BJP in 1998 and 1999 LS elections.  When the 2001 WB assembly elections came around Mamata Banerjee can see that AITC-BJP is unlikely to defeat CPM+ so she broke with BJP and formed an alliance with INC after trying to form an grand alliance of AITC INC and BJP which was refused by INC.

[jaichind]

WB 2001

After AITC became the main non-CPM+ party in WB in 1998 it allied with BJP in 1998 and 1999 LS elections with reasonable success as it was able to capture the majority of the old INC base but it was not enough to defeat CPM+ as INC showed it stilled retained 13%-15% of the vote share.  As the 2001 WB assembly election approached AITC formed an alliance with INC to take on CPM+.  This caused large amount of rebellion in INC which became the junior partner of AITC.  There were talk that AITC+ bloc was keeping the race close but the INC rebellions plus CPM+ voting bloc continued its winning streak.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
AITC+                294           89             39.52%
 AITC                 225           60              30.57%
 INC                    59           26                7.96%
 GNLF                    3            3                0.48%
 JMM                      5            0                0.37%
 JKP(N)                  1            1                0.10%
 Ind.                     1             0                0.04%

GNLF rebel            2            0                0.04%
JKP(N) rebel          2            0                0.06%
AITC rebel             2            0                0.22%
INC rebel             20            4               1.72%

CPM+                294         199              48.98%
 CPM                 211          143             36.59%
 AIFB                  34            25               5.65%
 RSP                   23            17               3.43%
 CPI                    12             7                1.79%
 WBSP                  4              4                0.67%
 RCPI(RB)             2              0                0.13%
 JS(S)                   2              0                0.08%
 RJD                     2              0                0.07%
 Ind.                     3             3                0.57%

CPM rebel             2             0                0.19%

BJP                   266             0                5.19%

PDS                    98             0                0.60%

NCP                    50             0                0.47%

SUC                     5             2                 0.37%

ABGL                   3              0                0.17%

CPM+ swept to victory again in a huge disappoint to AITC.  In the aftermath of this defeat AITC went back to its alliance with BJP.  In the 2004 LS elections INC led UPA won a shock victory over BJP led UPA and formed a government with Left Front outside support.   In WB AITC+BJP was crushed by de facto INC and Left Front tactical voting.  This reinforced the AITC alliance with BJP coming into the 2006 WB assembly elections.

[jaichind]

WB 2006

With the INC led UPA government being supported from the outside by Left Front, the stage was set in 2006 for AITC-BJP to take on CPM+ with INC+ running as a  separate bloc.  In 2004 LS elections CPM+ won the largest ever LS victory in WB due to the split of the old INC vote PLUS de facto CPM+/INC tactical voting.  With the non-CPM+ vote split between AITC+ and INC+ blocs the expectation was another CPM+ landslide which was realized.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
AITC+                294           32             29.41%
 AITC                 256           30              26.64%
 BJP                     29            0                1.93%
 ABGL                    3            0                0.25%
 JKP(N)                  2            1                0.24%
 JD(U)                   2            0                0.10%
 Ind.                     2             1                0.25%

AITC rebel            3             0                0.16%

CPM+                294         235              50.18%
 CPM                 212          176             37.13%
 AIFB                  34            23               5.66%
 RSP                   23            20               3.71%
 CPI                    13             8                1.91%
 WBSP                  4              4                0.71%
 DSP(P)                2              1                0.36%
 RJD                     2              1                0.08%
 NCP                     2              0               0.19%
 Ind.                     2             2                0.43%

INC+                 294           24             15.78%
 INC                   262          21              14.71%
 GNLF                    3            3                0.46%
 IPFB                     3            0                0.21%
 JMM                     7             0                0.18%
 PDS                     8             0                0.08%
 LJP                      8             0                0.06%
 SHSP                   1             0                0.00%
 Ind.                     1             0                0.01%

INC rebel              3             0                0.20%

GNLF rebel            2            0                 0.04%

BSP                  128             0                0.70%

SUC                     3             2                 0.34%

CPM+ won in a landslide with a seat share similar to 1977 and 1982.  CPM+ did not realize it at the time but this peak was just before the CPM+ would fall to unprecedented defeats in 2009 and 2011.  Left Front and INC led UPA fell out over the USA nuclear deal in 2008 which led to the revival of alliance between AITC and INC.  Anti-incumbency finally caught up with CPM+ and in the 2009 LS elections AITC-INC won a victory over CPM+ bloc and as 2011 WB assembly elections approached seems ready to repeat that performance.

[jaichind]

WB 2011

CPM+ was defeated in 2009 WB LS elections mostly over the Nandigram  SEZ protest where AITC outflanked the CPM+ on the Left.  When 2011 WB Assembly came around the CPM+ tried to rally one last time to beat back AITC+ bloc. Just like 2001 there were plenty of INC rebels that opposed the INC alliance with AITC but it did not dent the landslide defeat of the CPM+.

                     Contest        Won          Vote share
AITC+                294         226             48.08%
 AITC                 226          184             38.93%
 INC                    66            42               1.93%
 NCP                     1             0                0.03%
 Ind.                     1             0                0.03%

INC rebels           21             1                1.33%
AITC rebels           3             0                0.19%

CPM+                294           62              41.05%
 CPM                 213            40             30.08%
 AIFB                  34            11               4.80%
 RSP                   23              7               2.96%
 CPI                    14             2                1.84%
 SP                       5             1                0.74%
 DSP(P)                2              1                0.35%
 RCPI(RB)             2              0                0.23%
 RJD                     1              0                0.05%

CPM rebel             1             0                 0.04%

BJP+                294             4                 4.92%
 BJP                  289            0                 4.06%
 GJM                    5             4                 0.86%

SUC                    30             1                0.44%

BSP                  150             0                0.61%

JMM                   30             0                 0.47%
 
JKP(N)                  1            0                 0.11%

GNLF                   3             0                 0.09%

The historic defeat of CPM+ broke one of the longest winning streaks in India.  CPM+ continued to go downhill from there.  AITC and INC fell out over the 2012 India Presidential elections and in 2014 LS elections it was AITC vs CPM+ vs BJP vs INC.  BJP's Modi surge actually took votes from CPM+ and cleared the way for a near sweep of AITC by splitting the anti-AITC vote.  BJP's star began to wane after 2014 and as 2016 WB assembly election approached an alliance was formed between CPM+ and INC to try to stop the AITC.

[jaichind]

IMEG poll for Kerela has LDP (CPM+) getting 83-90 seats and UDF (INC+) getting 50-57 seats with NDA most likely getting zero despite the hype that NDA will gain vote share (this is most likely true but in this poll it is not enough to win seats.)

[jaichind]

VDPA poll for TN





Has AIADMK landslide

                          Vote Share            Seats
AIADMK                 41%                    179
DMK-INC               32%                      43
DMDK-PWF            13%                       5
PMK                        6%                       6
BJP                         4%                        0
Others                    4%                        1

It also has vote share by community



Not surprisingly AIADMK strong with Upper Caste (Jayalalitha herself is a Brahman), PMK strong with Vanniyars, DMK stronger with the lower castes, Christians and Muslims.   DMDK-PWF has with it VCK which is a Dalit party which explains the relative strength of DMDK-PWF with Dalits.   DMK should be strong with Dalits but it was always tricky on the ground given the lower Caste social base of DMK are often in social conflict with Dalits.

[jaichind]

VDPA poll for Kerela




Which is a shock result where it projects a surge for BJP+

               Vote Share          Seats
CPM+           40                   85
INC+            35                  39
BJP+             22                 15
Others            3                   1