Future composition of Illinois legislature after possible redistricting reform?

[Virginiá]

Mainly in reference to: http://thesouthern.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/supporters-of-redistricting-amendment-nearing-signature-goal/article_04a07380-24ad-5ac6-aaf0-b480a69cf023.html

Current composition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_General_Assembly

As the title says, assuming this initiative passes, after 2021, what would the makeup of the legislature tend to look like? Right now it has a rather large and persistent Democratic majority. Would Republicans have any chances of winning either chamber, or would it still be strongly Democratic, even if with a smaller majority (maybe like Oregon)?

[muon2]

The IL legislature doesn't have many swing seats. For example in 2014, as Rauner was defeating Quinn, the Dems lost no House seats and only one in the Senate - and that was with a weak incumbent. Neutral redistricting would likely still lead to a Dem majority, but there should be greater responsiveness to electoral swings. Pubs would possibly have an outside shot at the House in wave elections.

[Virginiá]

Hm, that's interesting. I always thought Illinois' Democratic voters were more compacted, especially when comparing the 2008 presidential election vs 2012 in terms of how each county voted. A significant change of blue-to-red everywhere but northern Illinois. I suppose there are less districts/less people down south, though?

Do you have a job related to politics? You seem really smart regarding this stuff. Enough so that some put out the bat light when questions needs answers!

[jimrtex]

Hm, that's interesting. I always thought Illinois' Democratic voters were more compacted, especially when comparing the 2008 presidential election vs 2012 in terms of how each county voted. A significant change of blue-to-red everywhere but northern Illinois. I suppose there are less districts/less people down south, though?

Do you have a job related to politics? You seem really smart regarding this stuff. Enough so that some put out the bat light when questions needs answers!

I believe muon2 is a current/former member of the IL state legislature. 

Labor strength downballot means that maps are a lot less R-favorable outstate when looking at the township level.

Future too. He has filed for re-election.

[Illiniwek]

Could he be my representative??? If its true he's a rep it looks like it!

Edit: Glad to see an actual representative of mine on Atlas! I will be watching very closely!

[Virginiá]

SEMI-UNRELATED (didn't want to create a new thread just for this question)

Is it possible for Democrats to make more gains in the state legislature, given the gerrymandered map?

Illinois looks poised to pass an automatic registration bill that also includes registering basically everyone who isn't already registered to vote before the November general election, and groups/donors (such as Steyer) are also targeting Illinois with major GOTV efforts this year.

Seeing as this doesn't look like a great year for Republicans and Democrats are making IL very "voter-friendly", I was curious if the legislative maps were drawn with room for Democrats to grow beyond their peak 40 Senate seats and 71 House seats?

[Green Line]

Muon probably knows more about this than me, but I'll give my 2 cents.

It's possible, but highly unlikely IMO.  The GOP has a handful of House seats (8 I believe) in Central Illinois and the Chicago burbs that went very narrowly for Obama (by a point or two in all cases), but Republicans run better downballot in all of these seats.  Most of the incumbents in Obama districts ran unopposed in 2014 and the few who had challengers all won in blowouts.  Unless suburban Chicago voters turn against local Republicans in a historic fashion, which they haven't yet done (even in 2008), I can't see a scenario where any of them lose.  I would be surprised if Democrats are seriously contesting most of those seats anyway.

Another problem for the Democrats is that Jack Franks is retiring (HD-62 based in McHenry County). His seat is going to be hard for the Dems to keep.

I don't know as much about the Senate, but the only Republican in an Obama district is Neil Anderson in Rock Island.  He's in his first term, so he won't be up for re-election.

[Virginiá]

Muon probably knows more about this than me, but I'll give my 2 cents.

It's possible, but highly unlikely IMO.  The GOP has a handful of House seats (8 I believe) in Central Illinois and the Chicago burbs that went very narrowly for Obama (by a point or two in all cases), but Republicans run better downballot in all of these seats.  Most of the incumbents in Obama districts ran unopposed in 2014 and the few who had challengers all won in blowouts.  Unless suburban Chicago voters turn against local Republicans in a historic fashion, which they haven't yet done (even in 2008), I can't see a scenario where any of them lose.  I would be surprised if Democrats are seriously contesting most of those seats anyway.

Another problem for the Democrats is that Jack Franks is retiring (HD-62 based in McHenry County). His seat is going to be hard for the Dems to keep.

I don't know as much about the Senate, but the only Republican in an Obama district is Neil Anderson in Rock Island.  He's in his first term, so he won't be up for re-election.

Ah, I see. Growing their majority in the State Senate seems superfluous at this point, seeing as they already have a supermajority in that chamber with a small buffer. I was really curious about the State House, as they only have a bare supermajority with, iirc, a trouble-making Democratic holdout that they got Obama to help them defeat in the primary (??).

I figured that given all the changes going on in IL in terms of demographics, pro-voting laws and with stronger GOTV efforts and a relatively toxic candidate for that state, that maybe Madigan could pad his House supermajority and break the budget impasse. I don't know anything really about their individual state legislature races, but I figured that has to be a priority for IL Democrats.

Thanks Green!