Mexican state elections 2016

[ag]

It seems in Aguascalientes, it will be PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT which should give it an advantage over PAN even though this is a lean PAN state.  PANAL seems to have some strength here.  What is bizarre is that just a couple of months ago PANAL joined PAN to defeat PRI-PVEM in a Lower House re-vote of the Aguascalientes Federal 1st District Congressional race.  Now PANAL has swung back to PRI.

PANAL is not a political party in any normal sense of the word. It is a ballot access line. Whoever pays more...

[ag]

It seems PRD and PAN will be running a joint candidate in Quintana Roo. As may be expected, he is a dissident PRIista

[Zanas]

It seems in Aguascalientes, it will be PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT which should give it an advantage over PAN even though this is a lean PAN state.  PANAL seems to have some strength here.  What is bizarre is that just a couple of months ago PANAL joined PAN to defeat PRI-PVEM in a Lower House re-vote of the Aguascalientes Federal 1st District Congressional race.  Now PANAL has swung back to PRI.

PANAL is not a political party in any normal sense of the word. It is a ballot access line. Whoever pays more...

While it may be more the case of Panal, isn't it more or less the case of basically every party in Mexico, except perhaps PRI which, though awful, is a different flavor of awfulness ?

[ag]

It seems in Aguascalientes, it will be PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT which should give it an advantage over PAN even though this is a lean PAN state.  PANAL seems to have some strength here.  What is bizarre is that just a couple of months ago PANAL joined PAN to defeat PRI-PVEM in a Lower House re-vote of the Aguascalientes Federal 1st District Congressional race.  Now PANAL has swung back to PRI.

PANAL is not a political party in any normal sense of the word. It is a ballot access line. Whoever pays more...

While it may be more the case of Panal, isn't it more or less the case of basically every party in Mexico, except perhaps PRI which, though awful, is a different flavor of awfulness ?

No, of course not, nothing like that. The only two parties that are truly like this are Panal and PVEM (too early to talk about PES). PAN is something very well-defined, both ideologically, historically and at the level of personalities. PRD is a coalition of certain fairly structured "tribes", each with its own history and non-trivial politics, united,between themselves once again, by history and, to some extent, ideology. Both have lively traditions and internal political processes. Morena is a personalist cult - but, most defnitely, it is not for sale. MC and PT have well-defined owners, but those owners have fairly clear political objectives. While they may be willing to sell access lines, they are not willing to sell those to anybody, and the price they charge will be, mostly, political.

[jaichind]

It seems PRD and PAN will be running a joint candidate in Quintana Roo. As may be expected, he is a dissident PRIista

Will this make a difference?  Both PRI-PVEM and MORENA seems pretty strong here.  If both blocs maintain their vote base PRD-PAN does not seem to have much of a chance.  Does this dissident PRI joint candidate command a large personal vote base that he can transfer from PRI to PRD-PAN ?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

why did AMLO leave PRD anyway?

[jaichind]

why did AMLO leave PRD anyway?

Even I could answer that.  AMLO wanted a party that he could control.  In the aftermath of his 2006 defeat it was clear looking at the nomination battles in the PRD that ALMO was far from having complete control of PRD.  He won the PRD nominated in 2012 by a whisker and even that was due to name recognition.   He wanted to make sure that he gets to run fore president in 2018 without having to worry about some intra-party rival. 

[ag]

It seems PRD and PAN will be running a joint candidate in Quintana Roo. As may be expected, he is a dissident PRIista

Will this make a difference?  Both PRI-PVEM and MORENA seems pretty strong here.  If both blocs maintain their vote base PRD-PAN does not seem to have much of a chance.  Does this dissident PRI joint candidate command a large personal vote base that he can transfer from PRI to PRD-PAN ?

Well, he used to be the mayor of Playa del Carmen amd, more recently, was second in command in the state tourism department (this is Quintana Roo, the state of Cancun and The Riviera Maya). At the very least, he should hold a lot of IOUs from local business.

[jaichind]

It seems even though PRD go the go ahead with PAN support to run its candidate in Oaxaca the are two rival PRD candidates working to get the PRD nomination.   They are Benjamín Robles Montoya who is a PRD senator and José Antonio Estefan Garfias who is a PRD Lower House member.  It seems it is possible whoever does not get nominated might run as an independent a al "El Bronco" model.    A recent Mitofsky poll seems to indicate that even that were to happen the PRD-PAN ticket will beat the PRI ticket.   Benjamín Robles Montoya seems to be the stronger of the two candidates based on the poll.

 

[RodPresident]

And after 2006 quagmire, there was some talk of runoff in Mexico elections. Why did that fail?

[ag]

And after 2006 quagmire, there was some talk of runoff in Mexico elections. Why did that fail?

No real demand for it. Run-offs do less than nothing to address  the problems of the sort that happened in Mexico in 2006. The basic problem ther was how close the election was, and run-offs, actually, increase the probability of that happening. Instead of there being one election, in which it matters who is first and second, now you have two rounds: in the first round it matters who comes second, and in the second - who comes first. So, run-off only exacerbates the 2006-type problems.

The real reason to do the run-off is to avoid the victories by caniddates that would loose to everybody else in a one-on-one election and to force the political system towards the center. In many environments run-offs would force formation of broad "left-" and "rightwing" coaltions and generally advantage more centrist elements in both.

The problem in Mexico is that both the left and the right happen to be historic allies against the center, so the impact of run-off is far from straightforward. It would seem that run-off's initial impact would be to force PRD and PAN more permanently into some sort of alliance (at least for the purposes of the second round). The problem, of course, is that in both parties there would be strong segments inconvenienced by this, so in both parties there are forces who would prefer the status quo. Long-term run-off would work to the advantage of PRI: generally, the centrist party of Mexico. But the short-term PAN-PRD convergence implied by run-off is a sufficient disincentive for the PRI not to push this.

To sum up, run-off´s impact on Mexican politics is sufficiently complex for the issue not to have sufficiently committed supporters.

[jaichind]

Wait.  If I am reading this right, in Zacatecas PRD-PAN will nominate a PRI turncoat who is also the brother of the current PRI governor ??!!  Wow.

http://aristeguinoticias.com/1802/mexico/un-ex-priista-designado-como-candidato-del-prd-en-zacatecas/

[ag]

Wait.  If I am reading this right, in Zacatecas PRD-PAN will nominate a PRI turncoat who is also the brother of the current PRI governor ??!!  Wow.

http://aristeguinoticias.com/1802/mexico/un-ex-priista-designado-como-candidato-del-prd-en-zacatecas/

brother-in-law

[jaichind]

It seems in Oaxaca where PRD with PAN support will take on PRI, the PRD has picked Garfias as its candidate which provoked PRD Senator Robles to bolt from the party since he was expecting to get the nomination.   It seems that Robles will run as an independent making this race a multi-cornered race after all.   For PRI it seems it will nominate Murat who is the son of a former PRI governor of Oaxaca.

[Hash]

PRI gubernatorial candidate in Q Roo is Mauricio Gongora, the mayor of Solidaridad (Playa del Carmen). He's a childhood friend of my deranged boss, who is supporting him.

[ag]

PRI gubernatorial candidate in Q Roo is Mauricio Gongora, the mayor of Solidaridad (Playa del Carmen). He's a childhood friend of my deranged boss, who is supporting him.

Have you moved down here?

[jaichind]

First polls for 2018 Prez elections



AMLO ahead.  But I guess it is mostly because of name recognition plus the PAN proto-candidate (who is just Calderón's wife) and the PRI-PVEM proto-candidate Minister of Interior Chong are both powerful within their own parties but not that popular with the electorate.  

In terms of favorable/unfavorable AMLO clearly is the most well known and no other candidate seems to have very strong net favorable or unfavorable.

[Vega]

El Chino in Mexico? Interesting possibility.

[jaichind]

El Chino in Mexico? Interesting possibility.

I think he is only Chinese on his mother's side.  Unlike the real El Chino I doubt he speaks any Chinese (Fujimori the elder speaks pretty good Japanese for someone born in Peru.  If only my American born son can speak Chinese mandarin as well as Fujimori speaks Japanese I would be very satisfied.) 

[jaichind]

PRI ahead in Durango.  But that is a PRI stronghold anyway.

[jaichind]

PRI in trouble in Veracruz against PAN backed by PRD.  PRI is behind 24.1% vs 19% and MORENA is actually at 15.1%.  This means even though the Left voting bloc is not going to PAN, PRI is still behind.

[jaichind]

PRI behind in PAN-PRD in Quintana Roo as well 33% 27.5% 

[jaichind]

PRI slightly ahead of PAN in Aguascalientes 35.5% vs 33.5%

[jaichind]

PRI ahead in Tamaulipas 30.8% vs 27%

[jaichind]

In Chihuahua PRI ahead of PAN 30.5 vs 16.3