Now that opensecrets.org had pretty much fully updated the fundraising figures, I can better judge which districts and Democratic candidates are competitive.
This is broken down into four categories with my rankings at the end.
Vs. Long time Republican incumbents (named in bracket with 2014 election results) ranked by my prediction of competitiveness
1.Josh Gottheimer, New Jersey 5 (E. Scott Garrett 55.4-44.3)
2.Morgan Carroll, Colorado 6 (Mike Coffman, 51.9-43.0)
3.Gretchen Driskell, Michigan 7 (Tim Walberg, 53.5-41.2)
4.Michael Eggman, California 10 (Jeff Denham, 56.1-43.9)
5.Emilio Huerta, California 21 (David Valadao, 57.8-42.2)
6.Francis Person, South Carolina 5 (Mick Mulvaney, 58.9-41.1)
7.Stephanie Murphy, Florida 7 (John Mica, Redistricted)
8.Jay Sidie, Kansas 3 (Kevin Yoder, 60.0-40.0)
9.Steve Lindbeck, Alaska (Don Young 51.0-41.0)
10.Nancy Jo Kemper, Kentucky 6 (Andy Barr, 60.0-40.0)
11.Erin McClelland, Pennsylvania 12 (Keith Rothfus, 59.3-40.7)
Vs Republican Freshmen
1.Charlie Crist, Florida 13 (Dave Jolly (First elected in Special Election in 2014), redistricted)
2.Brad Schneider, Illinois 10 (Bob Dold, 51.3-48.7
3.Pete Gallego, Texas 23 (Will Hurd, 49.8-47.7
4. Monica Vernon, Iowa 1 (Rod Blum, 51.1-48.8
5.Carol Shea-Porter, New Hampshire 1 (Frank Guinta (facing competitive primary challenge from Rick Ashooh, bless you
) 51.7-48.1
6.Matt Heinz, Arizona 2, (Martha McSally, 50.0-49.9
7.Joe Garcia or Annette Taddeo, Florida 26, (Carlos Curbelo, 51.5-48.5
8.Anna Throne-Holst, New York 1 (Lee Zeldin, 54.4-45.5
9.Ruben Kihuen, Nevada 4 (Cresent Hardy, 48.5-45.8
10.Jim Mowrer, Iowa, 3 (David Young, 52.8-42.2)
11.Doug Owens, Utah 4 (Mia Love, 50.9-45.8
12.Bryan Caforio, California 25 (Steve Knight, No Democratic opponent in 2014)
13.Emily Cain, Maine 2 (Bruce Poliquin, 47.0-41.8
14.Lu Ann Bennett, Virginia 10 (Barbara Comstock, 56.6-40.4)
15.Charles John Baricevic, Illinois 12 (Mike Bost, 52.5-41.9
16.Colleen Deacon, New York 24 (John Katko, 59.5-40.3)
17.Mike Derrick, New York 21, (Elise Stefanic, 55.1-33.8
18.Denise Juneau, Montana (Ryan Zinke, 55.4-40.4)
19.Mike Parrish, Pennsylvania 6 (Ryan Costello, 56.3-43.7)
20.Mark Hunt, West Virginia 2, (Alex Mooney, 47.1-43.9
Republican Open Seats
1.Val Demings or Bob Poe, Florida 10
2.Donald McEchin Virginia 4
3.Kim Myers, New York 22
4.Lon Johnson, Michigan 1
5.Jacky Rosen, Nevada 3
6.Angie Craig, Minnesota 2
7.Steve Santarsiero, Pennsylvania 8
8.Jane Dittmer, Virginia 5
9.Shelli Yoder, Indiana 9
10.Zephyr Teachout, New York 19
11.Christina Hartman, Pennsylvania 16
12.Tom Nelson, Wisconsin 8
13.Ryan Greene, Wyoming (Only competitive if Liz Cheney wins the Republican nomination)
14.Bruce Davis, North Carolina 13 (Only competitive because the Republican nominee isn't much of a fundraiser either)
Higher profile competitive Democrats in districts won by the Republicans by over 20% in 2014.
Elise Stefanic won in New York 21 by 21.3% in 2014, but she only received 55.1% of the vote, so I consider that result unique.
1.Douglas Applegate, California 49 (Darrell Issa, 60.2-39.8
2.John Plumb, New York 23 (Tom Reed, 61.7-38.3)
3.Gail Schwatz, Colorado 3 (Scott Tipton, 58.0-35.7)
4.Terri Bonoff, Minnesota 3 (Erik Paulsen, 62.1-37.8
5.Lynn Coleman, Indiana 2 (Jackie Walorski, 58.9-38.3)
6.Bill Otto, Missouri 2 (Ann Wagner, 64.1-32.6)
7.Scott Furhman, Florida 27 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Redistricted? If not, I don't think this district is competitive)
Districts added since last list after March financial donations filing: 1.New York 24, 2.South Carolina 5, 3.Pennsylvania 6, 4.Kentucky 6, 5.Pennsylvania 12, 6.New York 21, 7.Indiana 5, 8.Missouri 2, 9.Florida 27
Names/Districts removed since last list: 1.Frank Accavitti, Michigan 10, open seat, 2.Joel Lewis, Wisconsin 8 (Sean Duffy, Republican Incumbent)
My ranking, not including the 7 who are running in districts won by the Republican incumbent in 2014 by more than 20%, with the Elise Stefanik exception.
1.Val Demings or Bob Poe
2.Donald McEchin
3.Charlie Crist
4.Brad Schneider
5.Pete Gallego
6.Kim Myers
7.Monica Vernon
8.Josh Gottheimer
9.Carole Shea-Porter
10.Lon Johnson
11.Jacky Rosen
12.Angie Craig
13.Matt Heinz
14.Joe Garcia or Annette Taddeo
15.Anna Throne-Holst
16.Steve Santarsiero
17.Jane Dittmer
18.Ruben Kihuen
19.Morgan Carroll
20.Gretchen Driskell
21.Jim Mowrer
22.Doug Owens
23.Emily Cain
24.Lu Ann Bennett
25.Shelli Yoder
26.Charles John Baricevic
27.Zephyr Teachout
28.Christina Hartman
29.Michael Eggman
30.Bryan Carofio
31.Emilio Huerta
32.Colleen Deacon
33.Tom Nelson
34.Mike Derrick
35.Francis Person
36.Stephanie Murphy
37.Jay Sidie
38.Steve Lindbeck (will move up if/when Don Young says or does something stupid.)
39.Denise Juneau
40.Mike Parrish
41.Mark Hunt
42.Nancy Jo Kemper
43.Erin McClelland
44.Ryan Greene
45.Bruce Davis
