Hong Kong Chief Executive election, 2017

[peterthlee]

Latest Now TV poll (conducted by Lingnan University)
John Tsang Chun-wah (I) 39.2 (-2.5 from previous)
Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) 29.4 (+4.4 from previous, new peak)
Woo and Regina Ip levelled off at around 5-9 percentage points
Leung Kwok-hung 2.6

The gap between the top two runners narrowed down to 9.8 points. It bumped the incentive for Beijing to handpick Lam.

Former CE Tung Chee-hwa even mentioned the possibility of 'the Central Government rejected appointment of Tsang (should he be elected)' in a closed seminar. This thrilled the attendees and the press.

[peterthlee]

With the pro-PRC political machine behind Lam I guess there is not much to stop her from winning.  I still stick with my support for Regina Ip based on Chinese nationalist reasons.

The more exciting part of 2017 HK election cycle comes as the by-election of 2-5 LegCo seats. Many HKGolden netizens saw the Kowloon West seat, even in a FPTP system, as a solid pickup for pro-Beijing camp due to fragmentation of the non-establishment (the inclination of not rallying around a mainstream pro-Dem candidate).

In the past, non-establishment candidates trounced pro-Beijing camp easily, from 4-18 points, in LegCo FPTP by-elections. The condition of pro-Beijing camp pickup applies in the possible Hong Kong Island by-election, due to possible rejection of oath by Nathan Law Kwun-chung (D), possibly reinforced by the recruit of strong candidates within pro-Establishments.

If all 6 concerned lawmakers are stripped of their LegCo eligibility, those netizens could see 5 pickups for the pro-Beijing camp. Meanwhile, in the case of FPTP, localists could see New Territories East, a non-establishment stronghold, as a real tossup; non-establishments are on track to get bleached in Kowloon West.

This could be a Mondalesque loss for non-establishments. As a pro-Beijing hardcore, I cannot wait to see that.

[peterthlee]

John Tsang Chun-wah (I) stunned the media by submitting his nomination form. Among the delegates who wish to nominate him, only 25-30 are from the pro-establishment camp, including outspoken advocate James Tien (LP), former MP for New Territories East and Honorary President of the Liberal Party. Over 3/4 of his nomination forms are from the non-establishment centrist camp.

Facing an uphill battle in collecting public petition signatures, Leung Kwok-hung (LSD) dropped out of the race today.

Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I), the frontrunner, has collected around 400 nomination ballots. The count is still surging as Tsang's pro-establishment bastions have been conquered one by one. Once a Henry Tang stronghold, textile industry only had 3 ballots gone to Tsang, 14 gone to Lam. James Tien's own party has more delegates in favour of Lam than Tsang (around double).

The final count for Lam could reach around 500 when she submitted first batch of nominations, and could reach 700 in the end.

[peterthlee]

Current delegate count:
Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I): around 400 (with 290 explicit nomination ballots)
John Tsang Chun-wah (I): 160
Woo Kwok-hing (I): 92
Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (NPP): 22

[peterthlee]

After John Tsang, Woo Kwok-hing (I) also secured the essential 156 nomination ballots to formally enter the race. He will submit his nominations in due course.

Seems it goes into a three-way race between Lam, Tsang and Woo...

Some analysts have warned that Tsang and Woo would partition the non-establishment votes and kill each other, while I don't think so...Lam will easily secure >600 votes...

[jaichind]

With the pro-PRC political machine behind Lam I guess there is not much to stop her from winning.  I still stick with my support for Regina Ip based on Chinese nationalist reasons.

The more exciting part of 2017 HK election cycle comes as the by-election of 2-5 LegCo seats. Many HKGolden netizens saw the Kowloon West seat, even in a FPTP system, as a solid pickup for pro-Beijing camp due to fragmentation of the non-establishment (the inclination of not rallying around a mainstream pro-Dem candidate).

In the past, non-establishment candidates trounced pro-Beijing camp easily, from 4-18 points, in LegCo FPTP by-elections. The condition of pro-Beijing camp pickup applies in the possible Hong Kong Island by-election, due to possible rejection of oath by Nathan Law Kwun-chung (D), possibly reinforced by the recruit of strong candidates within pro-Establishments.

If all 6 concerned lawmakers are stripped of their LegCo eligibility, those netizens could see 5 pickups for the pro-Beijing camp. Meanwhile, in the case of FPTP, localists could see New Territories East, a non-establishment stronghold, as a real tossup; non-establishments are on track to get bleached in Kowloon West.

This could be a Mondalesque loss for non-establishments. As a pro-Beijing hardcore, I cannot wait to see that.

Yep.  I am pretty excited about this prospect as well.  It will be interesting to see the level of tactical voting between the Democratic Bloc and Localism Bloc against an Establishment bloc candidate.  I think this round the energy will still be on the Localism Bloc side who will have no incentive to want to work with the Democratic Bloc.  This might not be the case a couple of years from now when the novelty factor  wears off from the Localism Bloc.  On the Establishment side they have to work out which party will nominate their candidate (FTU vs DAB vs NPP).  If they do not then they will not be able to take advantage of this situation. 

[peterthlee]

Kowloon West: DAB
New Territories East: FTU
Hong Kong Island: DAB or FTU
The democratic bloc is going to be blanched in Kowloon West.

[MaxQue]

Why being politically correct and call them the "Establishment" bloc, instead of the Dictatorship bloc?

[jaichind]

Kowloon West: DAB
New Territories East: FTU
Hong Kong Island: DAB or FTU
The democratic bloc is going to be blanched in Kowloon West.

Ok.  They better get their act together.  Back in Feb 2016 the Establishment bloc blew a by-election victory in New Territories East in my view by having multiple Establishment bloc candidates.

Democratic bloc CP             37.2%
Establishment bloc DAB      34.8%
Localism bloc HKI               15.4%
Establishment bloc PP          7.7%
Establishment bloc TS          4.0%
Democratic bloc DP rebel      0.5%

 

Although one can argue TS can be considered a Democratic Bloc rebel party as well.  One way or another PP running at the same time as DAB ruined the Establishment Bloc chances of taking advantages of the Democratic Bloc-Localism Bloc split.

Also  New Territories East is one of the regions where Localism bloc is fairly weak by looking at the 2016 election results.

New Territories East
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  40.70%         3           42.36%         3          
  Pro-Beijing               5.23%         0             5.26%         0
  Center-Right          29.37%         3           31.81%         3
  Moderates               6.10%          0            5.29%          0

Democratic Bloc       48.35%         5           54.80%         6
   Centrists                 1.39%        0
   Moderates             32.91%        3            39.06%        4
   Radicals                14.05%        2            18.58%         2

Localism Bloc           10.95%        1

Even if the Establishment bloc in  New Territories East manages to stay united unless there is a Localism Bloc surge, which there might very well be, it still might be a uphill climb.  

Like you said, Kowloon West is looking pretty good for Establishment Bloc as long as they stay united.

It is still a bit weird for me as a Far Right KMT supporter to be on the same side as FTU given my memories of the 1980s of FTU as the enemy, in HK at least.  But politics is the part of the possible and there are no permanent friends of enemies.  The Democratic Blocs and Localism Blocs has to be beaten back.

[jaichind]

Why being politically correct and call them the "Establishment" bloc, instead of the Dictatorship bloc?

Well, it is more about calling someone or something what they want to be called.  Even the Democratic Bloc politicians refer to the Establishment Bloc parties as the "Establishment Bloc."  If not why stop at "Dictatorship Bloc"?  Why not "Anti-People Bloc" or just "Bloc of Evil" ?

[jaichind]

After John Tsang, Woo Kwok-hing (I) also secured the essential 156 nomination ballots to formally enter the race. He will submit his nominations in due course.

Seems it goes into a three-way race between Lam, Tsang and Woo...

Some analysts have warned that Tsang and Woo would partition the non-establishment votes and kill each other, while I don't think so...Lam will easily secure >600 votes...

Yeah.  I am for Ip which more reflects my extremist Chinese nationalist views.  But if I sense the Democratic Bloc are voting for Woo to block Lam most likely I will tactically support Lam.  Most likely, like you said, Lam's got this so it does not matter.

[peterthlee]

Kowloon West: DAB
New Territories East: FTU
Hong Kong Island: DAB or FTU
The democratic bloc is going to be blanched in Kowloon West.

Ok.  They better get their act together.  Back in Feb 2016 the Establishment bloc blew a by-election victory in New Territories East in my view by having multiple Establishment bloc candidates.

Democratic bloc CP             37.2%
Establishment bloc DAB      34.8%
Localism bloc HKI               15.4%
Establishment bloc PP          7.7%
Establishment bloc TS          4.0%
Democratic bloc DP rebel      0.5%

 

Although one can argue TS can be considered a Democratic Bloc rebel party as well.  One way or another PP running at the same time as DAB ruined the Establishment Bloc chances of taking advantages of the Democratic Bloc-Localism Bloc split.

Also  New Territories East is one of the regions where Localism bloc is fairly weak by looking at the 2016 election results.

New Territories East
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  40.70%         3           42.36%         3          
  Pro-Beijing               5.23%         0             5.26%         0
  Center-Right          29.37%         3           31.81%         3
  Moderates               6.10%          0            5.29%          0

Democratic Bloc       48.35%         5           54.80%         6
   Centrists                 1.39%        0
   Moderates             32.91%        3            39.06%        4
   Radicals                14.05%        2            18.58%         2

Localism Bloc           10.95%        1

Even if the Establishment bloc in  New Territories East manages to stay united unless there is a Localism Bloc surge, which there might very well be, it still might be a uphill climb.  

Like you said, Kowloon West is looking pretty good for Establishment Bloc as long as they stay united.

It is still a bit weird for me as a Far Right KMT supporter to be on the same side as FTU given my memories of the 1980s of FTU as the enemy, in HK at least.  But politics is the part of the possible and there are no permanent friends of enemies.  The Democratic Blocs and Localism Blocs has to be beaten back.

They did not blow it, NTE is non-establishment reservoir.
I would say that Edward Leung nearly destroyed the united front for the democrats.
Moreover, many HKGolden netizens, who used to be localists, plan to tactically vote for DAB candidate in Kowloon West to ensure him winning outright. Nightmare for the non-establishments.
Some even resorted to suggest sending less-known candidates to make it an automatic pickup for the pro-Beijing camp...

[peterthlee]

Final nomination count as Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) also submitted her bunch of ballots:
Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) 579 EVs
Woo Kwok-hing (I) 179 EVs (1 nomination is determined void)
John Tsang Chun-wah (I) 160 EVs

Meanwhile, Woo was officially declared a candidate after a scrutiny of his nominations.

Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (NPP), who is unlikely to enter the race, was urged to give her votes to Lam.

[peterthlee]

Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (NPP) dropped out of the race at 1400 HKT. She cited that some of her nominations went to Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I).

First election debate was hosted by former MP for New Territories East Ronny Tong Ka-wah, who earlier rolled out his bid for electoral college seat but failed to eke out a win. John Tsang Chun-wah (I) suprisingly refused to go to the debate hall.

[peterthlee]

Revised delegate nomination tally:
Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) 580 EVs
Woo Kwok-hing (I) 180 EVs
John Tsang Chun-wah (I) 165 EVs

Nomination period ends midnight on 2/3/2017 (HKT).

[peterthlee]

Today the first town hall debate was held between Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) and Woo Kwok-hing (I).

During the debate, Woo characterized Lam as a 'replica of CY Leung'. Lam hit back, citing a multitude of differences between them in terms of management style, support from which social sectors, amongst others. Here is a laughing block in retrospect:

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[peterthlee]

A Wikipedia link, including a comprehensive poll summary, is provided in the first reply (opening thread) to facilitate Atlasian members' knowledge of this election.

[peterthlee]

Today a second debated will be hosted by IT Vision, a pressure group consisting of IT Sector electorate, between John Tsang Chun-wah (I) and Woo Kwok-hing (I).

There are some allegations that the anchors in the first debate were biased for Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I). Nonetheless, both of them gave us a good show.

[peterthlee]

New poll by HK01/HKU pollster:
Tsang 47 percent/ 65.6 marks
Lam 33 percent/ 55.9 marks
Woo 12 percent/ around 48 marks.
Notably, Lam had the highest percentage of people giving her both full and zero marks.

[peterthlee]

Next debate slated for 2pm HKT tomorrow (12/3/2017).
The media outlet HK01 has live coverage of the debate, in which all three contenders will show up.

Today John Tsang Chun-wah (I) made appearance with legendary film star Chow Yun-fat. Meanwhile, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) courted support in Sheung Wan.

[peterthlee]

In last debate, John Tsang Chun-wah (I) accused Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I)of 'refraining from rekindling political reform as it flopped last time in 2015', whilst Lam suggested 'white terror by pan-democratic netizens' on her supporters amongst the first-class calibre.

Two contrasting polls rolled out after the debate:
Hong Kong Research Association
Lam 40 (!!+3!!)
Tsang 37
Woo 12

Lingnan university
Tsang 42.5 (+12.5)
Lam 30
Woo 11

Electorate polling deviations (polling amongst pro-establishments and pan-democrats) were attributed to such polling differences.

Meanwhile, incumbent CE Leung Chun-ying (I) was promoted to be a CPPCC vice-president. President Xi Jinping shaked hands with Leung for around 1 minute, followed by other CCP politburo standing committee members. Hong Kong Economic Journal and other electronic media, like post 852 and popular news, noted this as Xi's support for Lam never waning, and urged Tsang's supporters to prepare for the worst.

[peterthlee]

The second CE debate has been over for 2 days, and Lam outfoxed the expectations. However, in the debate, she answered the question of a furious citizen in this way:

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The move was largely seemed as an emphasis on the prerequisite 'entrustment by Hong Kong citizens'. On the contrary, some pro-establishments questioned her lack of determination to rule the city-entity.

Despite this, the elder son of tycoon Li Ka-shing, Richard Li, voiced his support for Lam. He said he will go to the poll station and vote for her. He did not nominate any candidates previously.

A blog-posting news website, post 852, suggested Tsang's odds are near zero, in spite of its natural tilt towards Tsang.

[peterthlee]

Polls seem to stabilize. Tsang now at 51, Lam at 34 and Woo at around 10 points.
Outliner polls are also rolled out: in an online poll conducted by ETNet, Lam easily trounced Tsang by a landslide !!26-point!! margin (61-35).
Pro-establishments are rallying around Lam, whilst non-establishments congregate around Tsang. Woo becomes the one who is sacrificed.

Meanwhile, there is some confidential information leaked out in local newspapers: Beijing will not send 'high-calibre officials' to Shenzhen to voice its preference, as the game 'has been decided'.

[peterthlee]

The polling deviation is becoming hilarious:
HK01/The University of Hong Kong
Tsang 56
Lam 30
Woo 9-10

HKRA (pro-Beijing camp commission)
Lam 41
Tsang 36
Woo around high single-digit

Despite such divergence, influential tycoon Li Ka-shing, who was earlier rumoured to cast secret ballot for Tsang, indirectly voiced support for Lam. He stipulated such thesis in the annual press conference of the Cheung Kong-Hutchison Conglomerate:

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Nüwa is a female god worshipped in Southeastern Chinese culture. His thesis indirectly pointed his favour to Lam.

[Simfan34]

Hmm. I know Li has gotten into hot water with Beijing over political commentary before.