IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[KingSweden]

Both Pritzker and Kennedy are awful candidates. Pawar is unelectable in a general and Drury is unelectable in a primary.

As I've said before, Biss is the man I'd want if I were a Democrat.

I don't think Pawar is helping himself with the mayor of friggin' *Cairo, IL* as his running mate, for that matter

[Gass3268]

*Whispering to myself* I think Pritzker will be fine as a candidate and is favored to win.

Agreed, Rauner will get Kirked regardless of who the Democrats run. Rauner is trash.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Both Pritzker and Kennedy are awful candidates. Pawar is unelectable in a general and Drury is unelectable in a primary.

As I've said before, Biss is the man I'd want if I were a Democrat.

I'm not sure how Biss is in any way more electable than Drury. Biss is explicitly running on a Sanders-esque bold progressive platform, while Drury has been harder to pin down ideologically but is running against the unpopular Madigan and Rauner. FWIW, Drury was one of only two house Democrats to vote against a surtax on millionaires and voted present on Madigan's speakership.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Dunno what's more delusional, Democrats who thought Lincoln coukd survive in 2010 or Republicans who think Rauner will survive an election in Illinois with Trump at 35% approvals.

Blanche Lincoln voted for a piece of legislation that was an albatross around the necks of each and every member of the party of the sitting President, especially in her state and its political tilt.

Bruce Rauner is a moderate Republican who is a decent fit for the political tilt of his state.

This is accurate. Outside of the City of Chicago.

Democrats' only path to a loss is by nominating a candidate who won't turn out the base in Chicago and who will turn off the moderate Chicagoland suburbanites. Rauner's victory in '14 was propelled in part by the latter (moderate suburbanites in DuPage, Lake and Kane)'s distaste for Quinn's connection to Blagojevich.

There's absolutely the potential for the same to happen in this year's race. Rauner will hammer Pritzker on trying to buy office from Blagojevich.

[Chief Justice Keef]

I'm still holding out hope that Biss becomes a dark horse and bucks the establishment in the end, but it's looking more and more grim.

Honestly, the fact that the choice is between a millionaire and a billionaire is pretty disheartening, at least for a Bernie Bro like me.

[GlobeSoc]

I'm voting for Biss to attempt to block either member of the elite duo from winning the primary

[Donerail]

Question for Illinois Dems/Indies- If Kennedy & Pritzer both suck, who's the best candidate in your eyes? Biss?

I don't vote in IL but I'll be knocking doors for Biss. If I thought Pawar had a better chance to win I'd flip to him. Pritzker would be my choice against Kennedy or Drury.

[RINO Tom]

Dunno what's more delusional, Democrats who thought Lincoln coukd survive in 2010 or Republicans who think Rauner will survive an election in Illinois with Trump at 35% approvals.

Uh, pretty clearly the ones who thought an unpopular President wouldn't affect a federal race rather than a gubernational one...?

[Anna Komnene]

From what I've heard, Rauner isn't very popular downstate either. The budget standoffs really hit some of those towns hard.

[Young Conservative]

I'm still holding out hope that Biss becomes a dark horse and bucks the establishment in the end, but it's looking more and more grim.

Honestly, the fact that the choice is between a millionaire and a billionaire is pretty disheartening, at least for a Bernie Bro like me.

You mean you are sad to pick between millionaires and billionaires, but you idolize a man who's made six figures for decades and has multiple houses?

Oh, plus this.

http://time.com/money/4235986/bernie-sanders-millionaire-finances/

Back to illinois, Rauner could win if the nominee is Pritzer.

[_]

I'm still holding out hope that Biss becomes a dark horse and bucks the establishment in the end, but it's looking more and more grim.

Honestly, the fact that the choice is between a millionaire and a billionaire is pretty disheartening, at least for a Bernie Bro like me.

You mean you are sad to pick between millionaires and billionaires, but you idolize a man who's made six figures for decades and has multiple houses?

Oh, plus this.

http://time.com/money/4235986/bernie-sanders-millionaire-finances/

Back to illinois, Rauner could win if the nominee is Pritzer.

He'd lose to Kennedy, that Jeb! like mess?  I think he can win with Pritzker or Kennedy, but he'd be better off with Pritzker.

[Ye We Can]

Dunno what's more delusional, Democrats who thought Lincoln coukd survive in 2010 or Republicans who think Rauner will survive an election in Illinois with Trump at 35% approvals.

Blanche Lincoln voted for a piece of legislation that was an albatross around the necks of each and every member of the party of the sitting President, especially in her state and its political tilt.

Bruce Rauner is a moderate Republican who is a decent fit for the political tilt of his state.

This is accurate. Outside of the City of Chicago.

Democrats' only path to a loss is by nominating a candidate who won't turn out the base in Chicago and who will turn off the moderate Chicagoland suburbanites. Rauner's victory in '14 was propelled in part by the latter (moderate suburbanites in DuPage, Lake and Kane)'s distaste for Quinn's connection to Blagojevich.

There's absolutely the potential for the same to happen in this year's race. Rauner will hammer Pritzker on trying to buy office from Blagojevich.

Well yeah, I said Drury is unelectable in the primary, not the general. Everything you just listed means he isn't getting anywhere near the Dem nomination.

Biss is a decent public speaker, a solid fundraiser, and imo most suited to turn out Chicago liberals as well as win enough Suburbanites.

Edit: wrong quote, meant the one about Drury.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Dunno what's more delusional, Democrats who thought Lincoln coukd survive in 2010 or Republicans who think Rauner will survive an election in Illinois with Trump at 35% approvals.

Blanche Lincoln voted for a piece of legislation that was an albatross around the necks of each and every member of the party of the sitting President, especially in her state and its political tilt.

Bruce Rauner is a moderate Republican who is a decent fit for the political tilt of his state.

This is accurate. Outside of the City of Chicago.

Democrats' only path to a loss is by nominating a candidate who won't turn out the base in Chicago and who will turn off the moderate Chicagoland suburbanites. Rauner's victory in '14 was propelled in part by the latter (moderate suburbanites in DuPage, Lake and Kane)'s distaste for Quinn's connection to Blagojevich.

There's absolutely the potential for the same to happen in this year's race. Rauner will hammer Pritzker on trying to buy office from Blagojevich.

Well yeah, I said Drury is unelectable in the primary, not the general. Everything you just listed means he isn't getting anywhere near the Dem nomination.

Biss is a decent public speaker, a solid fundraiser, and imo most suited to turn out Chicago liberals as well as win enough Suburbanites.

Edit: wrong quote, meant the one about Drury.

My mistake. I was under the impression that you had meant the general.

[Rjjr77]

Dunno what's more delusional, Democrats who thought Lincoln coukd survive in 2010 or Republicans who think Rauner will survive an election in Illinois with Trump at 35% approvals.

theres a 50 million dollar difference between lincoln and rauner.

[_]

Dunno what's more delusional, Democrats who thought Lincoln coukd survive in 2010 or Republicans who think Rauner will survive an election in Illinois with Trump at 35% approvals.

theres a 50 million dollar difference between lincoln and rauner.

Michael Madigan and a Dem tax raise also separate Blanche and Rauner.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I still think there's an outside chance that if Rauner ties the D nominee to Madigan and makes the race about being a check on him, he could pull off a squeaker. Madigan really has the potential to be that toxic. Of course, that depends on who the voters hate more.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I still think there's an outside chance that if Rauner ties the D nominee to Madigan and makes the race about being a check on him, he could pull off a squeaker. Madigan really has the potential to be that toxic. Of course, that depends on who the voters hate more.

Madigan. The voters hate Madigan more. His approval rating, last I can find, is 26%. Even Rauner has higher numbers than that.

[_]

I still think there's an outside chance that if Rauner ties the D nominee to Madigan and makes the race about being a check on him, he could pull off a squeaker. Madigan really has the potential to be that toxic. Of course, that depends on who the voters hate more.

Madigan. The voters hate Madigan more. His approval rating, last I can find, is 26%. Even Rauner has higher numbers than that.

IIRC Rauner is mid to high 30s pre tax raise, I think he's improving now.

[_]

Sabato Article on Govs, posting the IL Portion.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/governors-2017-2018-the-democrats-complicated-path-to-big-gains/

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[Gass3268]

They are being way to cautious on Illinois. I look forward to the Kirking and Democratic coming in and cleaning up Rauner's mess.

[Ye We Can]

They are being way to cautious on Illinois. I look forward to the Kirking and Democratic coming in and cleaning up Rauner's mess.

"Rauner's mess"

Lol. Whoever wins Illinois lost the day the state legislature started putting pensions on the tab.

[Ye We Can]

It's also worth noting that the State Legislature is a tangible enemy for Republicans to campaign against. IL state seats are severely gerrymandered: in 2014, the GOP was a point away from winning the popular vote in the house altogether but not a single seat flipped in the Democratic Supermajority. 

Those Madigan approval rates do matter here.

[_]

It's also worth noting that the State Legislature is a tangible enemy for Republicans to campaign against. IL state seats are severely gerrymandered: in 2014, the GOP was a point away from winning the popular vote in the house altogether but not a single seat flipped in the Democratic Supermajority. 

Those Madigan approval rates do matter here.

Rauner's money helped flip some in 2016, hopefully he can help us flip more in 2018, especially once Pritzker is a lock for the D Nomination, we can bring up Blago and Quinn in that scenario.

[GlobeSoc]

Just found out that Congressperson Robin Kelly endorsed Biss for governor on the 17th. Will this have any tangible effect on the race, such as increasing his name recognition in Will county, or does this mean nothing?

[Virginiá]

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/347778-illinois-governor-shakes-up-staff-after-controversial-white-male

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How many times is Rauner going to shake up his staff before Nov 2018?