Will Sherrod Brown lose next year?

[I’m not Stu]

Will Brown win another term in 2018?

[JMT]

I think he'll win (I think Trump will be unpopular, which will help Democrats). But still far too early to know for sure

[Young Conservative]

Yes. Democrats win in Ohio thanks to eastern Ohio margins be minimal. The national party is absolutely destroying Brown's chances with their tone deaf rhetoric.

[GlobeSoc]

He will win in a full county sweep and 80% of the vote, as he is the best senator in the entire United States.

[Kingpoleon]

Lean R against Kasich. Tossup against Tiberi. Anyone else, and it's at least Lean D.

[SATW]

Josh Mandel will win, 50-48.

[Xing]

It's going to be competitive for sure, but if I had to guess, I think he pulls out a win. Of course, at this point, this poll might as well be "Do you want Sherrod Brown to lose?" I think most answers to that question would be the same.

[Hindsight was 2020]

No he's popular and a Trump is in office

[DrScholl]

Brown will win.

[jamestroll]

I think 2018 will be a moderately democratic year. As in they will not be blown out in Senate, regain some foot hold in state governments and get in a better position in the house. Perhaps a narrow take over. Could be way off track though.

But the party needs to rebuild itself. If we choose to rely on Demographics there will be no topics in this board asking if an incumbent Democratic Senator in Ohio will win reelection.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I think 2018 will be a moderately democratic year. As in they will not be blown out in Senate, regain some foot hold in state governments and get in a better position in the house. Perhaps a narrow take over. Could be way off track though.

But the party needs to rebuild itself. If we choose to rely on Demographics there will be no topics in this board asking if an incumbent Democratic Senator in Ohio will win reelection.

Agree with this assessment. I think R's will pick up a few Senate seats (IN and MO come to mind), but this one will not be one of them.

[Littlefinger]

I think it is highly unlikely unless Trump is popular (unlikely). Likely will start off as a close race and Brown will win by mid single digits (think of FBM's race this year-->FBS ). He overperformed polls and expectations in previous races (06--won by 12% against Rep Incumbent in Strong Dem year and in 2012 by 6% when Obama only won by 3%). Kasich makes this race Tossup, but I think he is unlikely to run and hopefully Tim Ryan or Cordray run for Gov for a strong top of the ticket.

[I’m not Stu]

Josh Mandel will win, 50-48.

What if Pat Tiberi or John Kasich gets the GOP nomination?

[jamestroll]

I think 2018 will be a moderately democratic year. As in they will not be blown out in Senate, regain some foot hold in state governments and get in a better position in the house. Perhaps a narrow take over. Could be way off track though.

But the party needs to rebuild itself. If we choose to rely on Demographics there will be no topics in this board asking if an incumbent Democratic Senator in Ohio will win reelection.

Agree with this assessment. I think R's will pick up a few Senate seats (IN and MO come to mind), but this one will not be one of them.

Yea and it might not be MO and IN that fall. For all we know it could be WI and OH that fall. I know I am making a bunch of predictions here that some will likely not come true, but I do not see multiple blanchings in 2018. Like even if McCaskill loses by 7, it gives downballot Democrats a chance. That is compared to losing by 19+ in which would have been possible if Hillary was being sworn in on Friday.

Brown is uncontroversial in himself but his voting record more than others could well be hammered in the campaign. On the other hand, this Mandel guy has MURPHY vibes all over him.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Too early to tell IMO and it will depend on Trump.

[Heisenberg]

Brown is a die-hard liberal in a state that went for Trump by 9, and already had a R+ PVI going into the election. Josh Mandel has already been elected statewide twice, and did not do as badly as people think last time, holding Sherrod Brown to only 50.7%. An independent conservative candidate got about 4.6% of the vote, most would have probably gone to Mandel). In 2018, unless Trump is really unpopular, I still expect a slightly more R-friendly electorate, and this time Mandel should win the three Demosaur Coal Counties on the Ohio River he lost in 2012 (Monroe, Belmont, Jefferson; Trump easily won all 3), plus improve his rural margins.

[morgieb]

Too early to call. I don't think Mandel or Tiberi are strong enough candidates to knock him off in a year I expect to be D-leaning, though. Could be well off though, at this stage we're all just guessing no?

[Blackacre]

He was looking vulnerable until Trump won, and now that the OH-GOP chair has been replaced, he's looking far safer. Not titanium safe, but assuming he runs campaigns of the same calibre as in 2006 and 2012, I'd put money on him beating his opponent, especially if it's Mandel again.

[I’m not Stu]

He was looking vulnerable until Trump won, and now that the OH-GOP chair has been replaced, he's looking far safer. Not titanium safe, but assuming he runs campaigns of the same calibre as in 2006 and 2012, I'd put money on him beating his opponent, especially if it's Mandel again.

What if Trump becomes a failure and Kasich gets the US Senate nomination?

[Sumner 1868]

He was looking vulnerable until Trump won, and now that the OH-GOP chair has been replaced, he's looking far safer. Not titanium safe, but assuming he runs campaigns of the same calibre as in 2006 and 2012, I'd put money on him beating his opponent, especially if it's Mandel again.

What if Trump becomes a failure and Kasich gets the US Senate nomination?

The idea popular governors are shoe-ins for Senate seats isn't always true. Especially when it's a wave year as 2018 is likely to be.

[jamestroll]

Guys, the only confident prediction we can make at this time is this:

Democrats will have a good night in at least one of the next several elections. The Republicans will win the elections that Democrats do not have a good night in. A neutral year is indeed possible. 2018 seems to have the structure of a neutral year at the start Unfavorable Senate Map for Democrats but also the House and Governorships provide opportunity for Democrats.

But let's look at Trumps's first 100 days before we all get hostile to each other over predictions.

Clinton would have probably won without the Comey Letter or ObamaCare.

[Sumner 1868]

The idea popular governors are shoe-ins for Senate seats isn't always true. Especially when it's a wave year as 2018 is likely to be.

You mean... like 2016 is likely to be a D wave year? I think Kasich would beat Brown pretty handily in a neutral year, not that he would have an easy time winning the Republican primary.

I never thought 2016 would be a wave, and a lot of blue avatars now seem to believe in a "red wall" in a bizarre reversal from 18 months ago. And throwing Kasich's name sounds almost like they expect to lose without him.

[BuckeyeNut]

Kasich. Won't. Run.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Brown is a die-hard liberal in a state that went for Trump by 9, and already had a R+ PVI going into the election.

No offense but most people don't vote based on who is closest to them on the Atlas political matrix.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Hilary would have won, OH and Pa senators would have been on the hot seat. But, this is a Trump midterm and Brown and Casey are undefeatable.