2017 French Presidential Election

[rob in cal]

   A Rothschild banker backed by leftists either now or in the 2nd round, should provide lots of fodder for conspiracy theorists.

[Zinneke]

and ofc an euro-sceptic putin-fan.

He is a Putin fan (they were on good terms when both were PMs of their respective countries) but not a eurosceptic. He just has a certain vision of a France-dominated, more intergovernmental Europe. Was De Gaulle a eurosceptic?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Was De Gaulle a eurosceptic?

besides that my comment was meant tongue-in-cheek, i usually dislike judging politicans (and literally anyone), who lived half a century or more earlier by our current standards.

to be more fair: let's say i distrust people who are too willing to improve their own positions and too willing to crawl in front of putin.

[Tirnam]

Mr Trump Fillon: it's likely that I'm tapped (and of course Hollande receives the tapes)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I hope Fillon gets knocked to 4th by Melenchon, I doubt it'll happen but I think it'll be sweet justice.

[ApatheticAustrian]

at this point he just craves for attention, eh?

[The Other Castro]

Bad (or sick) guy!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mr Trump Fillon: it's likely that I'm tapped (and of course Hollande receives the tapes)

At least he didn't misspell "sur écoute".

[Hash]

I'm not sure if this was mentioned at the time, but two weeks ago, Robert Hue backed Macron.

The first Blairite-communist?

To be fair, Hue has turned into a #woke progressive - his party's candidate, random guy Sébastien Nadot, weirdly boasted of having a VR campaign billboard and cited Justin Trudeau as an example for something. Still, no less hilarious. Also hilarious: former PCF deputy Patrick Braouezec (who, tbf, left the party a long time ago) endorsed Macron but also said he'd support the FG/whatever candidate in June because we need an 'anti-capitalist counter-power'. Heighten the contradictions, comrades.

Much less publicized by the Macronistas, but Macron is seemingly supported by Jean-Noël Guérini, the old criminal boss of the PS in the Bouches-du-Rhône who has dedicated his life since 2014 to destroying the remnants of the local PS. Flawless Beautiful Macron got signatures from guériniste senator Michel Amiel, Guérini-friendly and indicted PS deputy Jean-Pierre Maggi, a number of Guérini-friendly PS dept'al. councillors and - most tellingly - 2nd sector mayor (reelected in 2014 in a crass alliance with Gaudin) and departmental councillor Lisette Narducci, Guérini's closest ally (his binôme partner in 2015). The Macronistas have publicized the support of Christophe Masse, because he is less closely associated to the old Guérini faction, but Masse was certainly Guérini-friendly in a very recent past. In conclusion,

[Kingpoleon]

By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?

If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022.

This. There will be some recomposition between 3 poles: the left (Mélenchon/Hamon electorate) , the center (around Macron) and the far right (Fillon/Le Pen)

Melencon/Hamon is far left if Fillon is far right. Melenchon is almost as left wing as Le Pen is right wing, and Hamon is just as left wing as Fillon was right wing pre-Penelopegate.

[windjammer]

By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?

If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022.

This. There will be some recomposition between 3 poles: the left (Mélenchon/Hamon electorate) , the center (around Macron) and the far right (Fillon/Le Pen)

Melencon/Hamon is far left if Fillon is far right. Melenchon is almost as left wing as Le Pen is right wing, and Hamon is just as left wing as Fillon was right wing pre-Penelopegate.

No this is totally bullsh**t what you're saying

[Intell]

By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?

If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022.

This. There will be some recomposition between 3 poles: the left (Mélenchon/Hamon electorate) , the center (around Macron) and the far right (Fillon/Le Pen)

Melencon/Hamon is far left if Fillon is far right. Melenchon is almost as left wing as Le Pen is right wing, and Hamon is just as left wing as Fillon was right wing pre-Penelopegate.

lol.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's well-known that I-AR avatars are the ultimate arbiters of the left-right spectrum in European countries.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if the german media is correct, macron is at this point trying to DECREASE the number of socialist endorsements for his candidacy.

[Tirnam]

Yes, especially from the government. he wanted Le Drian's endorsement because he is popular and a strong asset in defense, but Macron doesn't want to appear as a Hollande successor. When there were rumors that Valls will endorse him, Macron said "I'm not a guest house"

Hamon a little bit desperate tonight: endorsements of Macron are "stabs in the back", "I'm told an execution next week with Valls' endorsement of Macron". He won't dropout in favor of Mélenchon because he "will be in the second round"

[parochial boy]

Christ, the PS really deserves to die

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Hamon a little bit desperate tonight: endorsements of Macron are "stabs in the back", "I'm told an execution next week with Valls' endorsement of Macron". He won't dropout in favor of Mélenchon because he "will be in the second round"

Wow, that's FilLOL levels of paranoia and delusions

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hamon a little bit desperate tonight: endorsements of Macron are "stabs in the back", "I'm told an execution next week with Valls' endorsement of Macron". He won't dropout in favor of Mélenchon because he "will be in the second round"

Wow, that's FilLOL levels of paranoia and delusions

He's absolutely correct. Valls broke the pledge he signed when he participated in the primary. He is a liar, plain and simple.

[Intell]

Hamon a little bit desperate tonight: endorsements of Macron are "stabs in the back", "I'm told an execution next week with Valls' endorsement of Macron". He won't dropout in favor of Mélenchon because he "will be in the second round"

Wow, that's FilLOL levels of paranoia and delusions

He's absolutely correct. Valls broke the pledge he signed when he participated in the primary. He is a liar, plain and simple.

This ^. I hope melechon and hamon merge, and Valls and shi!ts like them can join Marcron.

[Famous Mortimer]

What is Melenchon's geographic base and how does it compare to Chevenement's geographic base in the past?

[Klartext89]

I've a question:

I'm in no illusion that Macron will become the next President. But what will that mean for the upcoming parliament election a few weeks later?

Will he reunite with PS and promote them? Will his party/movement run their own candidates?

[Zinneke]

I've a question:

I'm in no illusion that Macron will become the next President. But what will that mean for the upcoming parliament election a few weeks later?

Will he reunite with PS and promote them? Will his party/movement run their own candidates?

He has said he will look for cross-party alliance. He is also running his own candidates but he seems under no illusion that he will not get a majority.

Several scenarios possible, and I also think they will keep in mind how they can deal with the FN for next election :

1. The PS breaks up (which looks almost certain now) and Macron manages to get the support of the renamed right-wing of the PS, Modem, PRG, maybe UDI and his own party, which could be enough for a majority. The LR stays as it is and stays in opposition to reorganise itself. FN are too weak to force a Grand Coalition.

Likelihood of happening : medium.
Likelihood of FN gaining in 2022 : low

2. The LR breaks up, the Juppéistes join Macron, some of the right-wing PS and Modem in forming a centrist alliance to back Macron's policies to an extent. In return someone from the Juppé clan or Bayrou is made PM. In this scenario it is likely that the FN are too strong or that the French political Right has a plurality big enough for Macron to have to take them into account.

Likelihood of happening : high
Likelihood of FN gaining in 2022 : medium


3. FN gets enough seats to force a grand coalition between the republican forces, dominated by the PS remnant and the LR remnant to support Macron.

Likelihood of happening : medium.
Likelihood of FN gaining in 2022 : high

4. PS and LR effectively disintegrate as political force entirely and the French political scene is reformed. Macron wins a majority with En March-Modem. Either FN or a hard right branch of LR in the Sarkozyste mould becomes the opposition along with the hard left.

Likelihood of happening : medium-low.
Likelihood of FN gaining in 2022 : high.


I think despite the above, what we will probably see is something similar to Spain, a majoritarian democracy that struggles to find compromises in their new consociational context. Remember Macron can dissolve the Assembly mid-term if he wants to.

THe ultimate fear of the traditional parties and commentators alike is that French politics polarises itself around two figures : Le Pen's niece and Macron.

[parochial boy]

What is Melenchon's geographic base and how does it compare to Chevenement's geographic base in the past?

In 2002, most of Mélenchon's best results came from the South West and the Massif Central. Areas that are traditionally left wing, but not traditionally communist; although he did score above average in traditional communist areas like Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Bouches du Rhone and Allier, as well as the "red belt" working class suburbs of Paris.

A casual glance at Chevenement's results suggest he performed best in the East of France, in particular in working class areas in what is now Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, and fairly poorly in the areas that went on to give Mélenchon better numbers.

[Tirnam]

I think that out of the 4 scenarios of Rogier for the legislative elections, the number 4 is the likeliest (if Macron is elected, against Le Pen)

Here's why in my view:
-Abstention will be the same as it is since 2002: between 40 and 45%. That means that, on average, to be in the second round, if you are not one of the top 2 candidates you have to win between 20 and 25% of the vote.

-Macron promised 288 candidates outside politics, and 288 candidates who are politicians, I guess that means 100 candidates from PS, 100 candidates from right-wing movements and 88 candidates from centrist movements (or something like that).

-PS will implode between those who will want to work with Macron and those who will refuse. Those who will join Macron will find a place easily. For those who will refuse, they will be in the same position than Hamon now: stuck between the candidates of En marche (who will have the momentum of Macron's victory) and Mélenchon's party (who, if Mélenchon is ahead of Hamon, could claim the leadership in the left). In my view it's hard to imagine an average PS candidate over 15%.

-LR will be in a grave crisis after Fillon's defeat (the man who lost the election that cannot be lost), from April, 24th to May, 7th the opposition against Macron will be Le Pen and FN. I guess that some angry right-wing voters could think that FN is the best opposition against Macron. I think that an average LR candidate could be under 20%.

-So with that (abstention and the dynamics of the presidential election), I think that in a huge amount of legislative districts the runoff could be between En Marche and FN candidates. And that could lead to a comfortable En Marche majority.

Of course I speak in an average election, there will be local exceptions. And a comfortable En Marche majority doesn't presume of the integrity of a such majority during a Macron's mandate.

[Umengus]

Opinionway

Marine: 26 +1
Macron: 24 =
Fillon 20 +1
Melanchon 13 (-1)
Hamon 11 (=)
NDA: 3 (-1)
Lassalle: 1 (=)

Macron 61 (-2)
Marine 39 (+2)

Fillon 58 (+1)
Marine 42 (-1)