UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[OSR stands with Israel]

Nearly Half of all Labour voters may desert the party


Wow if this is true

Im not surprised, a lot of soft Labour votes.

Labour is torn by soft Leavers and Remainers voters, whichever way the party moves it will lose votes.
Before the referendum, i thought the vote would hurt the tories in England, like indyref hurt Labour in Scotland, however the tories are standing their ground and it UKIP and Labour being hurt most.

Maybe anecdotal, but ive noticed Tory remain voters are less likely to defect to the Lib Dems then Labour remain voters. 

If those numbers are true and their current support hold tories may win a 1997 style landslide instead of a little less then 1983

[MAINEiac4434]

Nearly Half of all Labour voters may desert the party


Wow if this is true

Im not surprised, a lot of soft Labour votes.

Labour is torn by soft Leavers and Remainers voters, whichever way the party moves it will lose votes.
Before the referendum, i thought the vote would hurt the tories in England, like indyref hurt Labour in Scotland, however the tories are standing their ground and it UKIP and Labour being hurt most.

Maybe anecdotal, but ive noticed Tory remain voters are less likely to defect to the Lib Dems then Labour remain voters. 

Maybe the difference between popular and unpopular leadership?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I completely forgot the local elections were next week 0_0

[jaichind]

New Opinium poll

CON    47 (+2)
LAB     30 (+4)
LIB       8 (-3)
UKIP     7(-2)

CON+UKIP at 54 and LAB+LIB at 38.  Sort of fits my theory of CON+UKIP at 53-55 and LAB+LIB at 35-37 although there LAB+LIB seems to above this range. 

How the 2015 vote will splinter by party is also interesting.  I am surprised how much of the 2015 LIB vote will go CON this time.

[adma]

  I am surprised how much of the 2015 LIB vote will go CON this time.

Probably a lot to do with no more token "incumbency bounce".

[Reluctant Republican]

First post in this forum, I apologize in advance if my question is ignorant.

Would a result like the last few polls having Labour at 29 or 30% show that not many voters deserted the party after all? It's not all that worse than what they received at the last election, and would suggest that the conservatives greater strength came from other parties than Labour's own base which stayed mostly loyal?

Mind if they get 25% or something that's a clear slippage, but doing only a point or two worse in this election makes me think talk of the party falling apart is overstated. Of course that's only amongst their base, and if the most of the other 70% or so of voters regard the party strongly unfavorably it's still not a good position to be in.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov (27-28 Apr)
Con - 44% (-1)
Lab -  31% (+2)
Lib - 11% (+1)
UKIP - 6% (-1)
Grn - 2% (-1)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

YouGov (27-28 Apr)
Con - 44% (-1)
Lab -  31% (+2)
Lib - 11% (+1)
UKIP - 6% (-1)
Grn - 2% (-1)

Kind of weird how Labour might improve on their performance last time but go backwards in seats because the Conservatives are improving more.

[Silent Hunter]

First post in this forum, I apologize in advance if my question is ignorant.

Would a result like the last few polls having Labour at 29 or 30% show that not many voters deserted the party after all? It's not all that worse than what they received at the last election, and would suggest that the conservatives greater strength came from other parties than Labour's own base which stayed mostly loyal?

It would suggest some picking up of voters from the Greens and other left parties to replace those that have defected to UKIP and the Tories. However, it would hardly be a ringing endorsement of Labour at all.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think a fair few voters (especially elderly) have detected to the Tories via UKIP as a sort of stepping stone like so:

2010: Labour
2015: UKIP
2017: Tory

I haven't done data analysis or anything though so take this with a pinch of salt

[Phony Moderate]

I think a fair few voters (especially elderly) have detected to the Tories via UKIP as a sort of stepping stone like so:

2010: Labour
2015: UKIP
2017: Tory

I haven't done data analysis or anything though so take this with a pinch of salt

I actually think a fair few such voters crossed the Tory box for the first time as far back as 2010, then went off to UKIP during the course of the Coalition.  

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think there was a lot of wavering actually - I think Brown was lucky in that he was probably more appealing to such voters than Miliband or Corbyn (Gilliam Duffy aside), Cameron was such a rubbish fit for them and that the Tories had decided to abandon their Michael Howard era posturing.

[jaichind]

 U.K. general-election poll conducted by ICM shows 47% plan to vote Conservative; 28% for Labour, 9% for Liberal Democrats, and 8% for UKIP, according to The Sun.

[Frodo]

Is there a consensus on here that the Conservatives under PM Theresa May are on the brink of their own version of the 1997 general election?

[Clyde1998]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

[Silent Hunter]

Is there a consensus on here that the Conservatives under PM Theresa May are on the brink of their own version of the 1997 general election?

Arguably better - Labour got 42% in 1997 and the Tories will likely go higher in the national vote share.

[TheSaint250]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

[Clyde1998]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

They must be; can't find anything out about them. I would imagine that the Lib Dems would stand aside for them if they're that close to the Conservatives. They may potentially stand in other seats that voted remain overwhelmingly that the Conservatives hold as well. Could make it interesting.

[TheSaint250]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

They must be; can't find anything out about them. I would imagine that the Lib Dems would stand aside for them if they're that close to the Conservatives. They may potentially stand in other seats that voted remain overwhelmingly that the Conservatives hold as well. Could make it interesting.

Yeah, I would think that too.  If it is a new party, it would most likely reel in some disaffected Labour and Lib Dems.

[Blair]

I assume its polling done by Gina Millers group, or some other well funded anti-brexit group. Labour won't stand aside though; namely because said anti-brexit group has just as good a claim to run against Kate Hoey (a lab MP) in Vauxhall

Is there a consensus on here that the Conservatives under PM Theresa May are on the brink of their own version of the 1997 general election?

Eh I'm a tad bias but it's not 1997 in it's feeling. Blair remodeled the party in 1997 (and hence the dominance New Labour had over the party machine for the next 13 years) yet May (and her own brand of conservatism) isn't that popular within the conservative party.

1997 was in a sense a good bookmark for British Politics (as 1945/1979 was) but 2017 doesn't have that same feeling to it.

[Zinneke]

I assume its polling done by Gina Millers group, or some other well funded anti-brexit group. Labour won't stand aside though; namely because said anti-brexit group has just as good a claim to run against Kate Hoey (a lab MP) in Vauxhall

Is there a consensus on here that the Conservatives under PM Theresa May are on the brink of their own version of the 1997 general election?

Eh I'm a tad bias but it's not 1997 in it's feeling. Blair remodeled the party in 1997 (and hence the dominance New Labour had over the party machine for the next 13 years) yet May (and her own brand of conservatism) isn't that popular within the conservative party.

1997 was in a sense a good bookmark for British Politics (as 1945/1979 was) but 2017 doesn't have that same feeling to it.

Is there a particular wing/faction May is part of? Is she unpopular with the Liam Fox's of this world or the David Camerons of that old world?

[jaichind]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

I think this is hypothetical.  I think for such a candidate to win the LIB has to step aside.

[Simfan34]

Is there a consensus on here that the Conservatives under PM Theresa May are on the brink of their own version of the 1997 general election?

Arguably better - Labour got 42% in 1997 and the Tories will likely go higher in the national vote share.

Yes, but right now they're projected to get considerably fewer seats. I suppose it has to do with Scotland having (mostly) been taken out of the picture?

[Hifly]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

They must be; can't find anything out about them. I would imagine that the Lib Dems would stand aside for them if they're that close to the Conservatives. They may potentially stand in other seats that voted remain overwhelmingly that the Conservatives hold as well. Could make it interesting.

Yeah, I would think that too.  If it is a new party, it would most likely reel in some disaffected Labour and Lib Dems.

No, neither of you know so. The Kensington Lib Dems chose their candidate months ago and if you measured her purely on her stubborn determination you may think she had a chance. They're standing down for nobody in Kensington (good news for the Constituency Labour Party; they steal more votes from the Tories!).

Note the stability of the Labour vote - not surprising for a constituency like Kensington which displays such profound socioeconomic (you can walk for 100 meters and enter an area where life expectancy is 10 years lower than where you started) and political division (party composition on the Borough council has remained remarkably consistent throughout it's existence).

[Blair]

I assume its polling done by Gina Millers group, or some other well funded anti-brexit group. Labour won't stand aside though; namely because said anti-brexit group has just as good a claim to run against Kate Hoey (a lab MP) in Vauxhall

Is there a consensus on here that the Conservatives under PM Theresa May are on the brink of their own version of the 1997 general election?

Eh I'm a tad bias but it's not 1997 in it's feeling. Blair remodeled the party in 1997 (and hence the dominance New Labour had over the party machine for the next 13 years) yet May (and her own brand of conservatism) isn't that popular within the conservative party.

1997 was in a sense a good bookmark for British Politics (as 1945/1979 was) but 2017 doesn't have that same feeling to it.

Is there a particular wing/faction May is part of? Is she unpopular with the Liam Fox's of this world or the David Camerons of that old world?

No; I'm not sure what the new MP's will be like (the 2010 intake was very eurosceptic) but the current party doesn't really love her. Sure if she gets a 150 seat majority they'll keep quiet, but she doesn't have a core group of 50-60 MPs and a handful group of ministers (something Blair/Brown/Cameron had)

She's more unpopular with the Cameron wing; and that will only get worse with Brexit imo