Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 21, 2017, 04:51:10 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  Demographics of white Democrats in Mississippi
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: Demographics of white Democrats in Mississippi  (Read 1575 times)
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3303
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #25 on: June 13, 2017, 03:32:33 am »
Ignore

^ I guess vote by age statistics includes both whites and blacks?
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
Fmr. Pres. Griffin
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11773
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #26 on: June 13, 2017, 02:39:07 pm »
Ignore

^ I guess vote by age statistics includes both whites and blacks?

Sadly, yes.

In 2008, it was broken down by both, but the exit polls for MS in 2008 were pretty useless in this regard (if I recall correctly, adding up all of the age groups' Obama support yielded something like 46% of the state voting for him) and did not display the 65+ support levels for the candidates.
Logged




To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
Del Tachi
Republican95
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3866
United States


View Profile
« Reply #27 on: June 13, 2017, 02:55:27 pm »
Ignore

Obligatory reminder that in 2012, Romney only won the under-65 crowd in MS by 5 points:

Relatively young (i.e. non-ancient) whites in Mississippi are probably no less Democratic than whites in, say, Georgia. They're not that much of an anomaly. You're still looking at a majority-white electorate (anywhere from 50/50 to 55/45) even in the 18-29 grouping, meaning that anywhere from 20-25% of those whites are voting Democratic.

It's pretty obvious when looking at both the exit polls and general demography of the state by age that older blacks do not really vote at all in Mississippi (the legacy of the times in which they were raised). This is the predominant problem with flipping MS, but once they - and their white cohorts that are voting 95% R - pass on, the state becomes much more competitive.
 

Not necessarily, a lot of liberal young people in Mississippi probably leave the state and that is probably a major factor in why the older-cohorts are so Republican-voting.
Logged

2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Fmr. Pres. Griffin
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11773
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #28 on: June 13, 2017, 03:22:02 pm »
Ignore

Obligatory reminder that in 2012, Romney only won the under-65 crowd in MS by 5 points:

Relatively young (i.e. non-ancient) whites in Mississippi are probably no less Democratic than whites in, say, Georgia. They're not that much of an anomaly. You're still looking at a majority-white electorate (anywhere from 50/50 to 55/45) even in the 18-29 grouping, meaning that anywhere from 20-25% of those whites are voting Democratic.

It's pretty obvious when looking at both the exit polls and general demography of the state by age that older blacks do not really vote at all in Mississippi (the legacy of the times in which they were raised). This is the predominant problem with flipping MS, but once they - and their white cohorts that are voting 95% R - pass on, the state becomes much more competitive.
 

Not necessarily, a lot of liberal young people in Mississippi probably leave the state and that is probably a major factor in why the older-cohorts are so Republican-voting.

But this is already a factor that is already occurring/accounted for, no?

If you fast-forward 20 years, under the assumption that:

1) -5 points in margin: an 80/20 white electorate that's voting 95% R is gone and replaced with a 70/30 white electorate that is 85% R among whites

2) -10 points in margin: the middle age-groups include a larger percentage of black voters; say, from 30% black to 40% black

3) -1.5 points in margin: maintain the 20% white support among the young whites who are being minted there (also factoring in a larger percentage of voters in this age group being black as well)

Then it'd be a pretty big shift.
Logged




To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
Del Tachi
Republican95
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3866
United States


View Profile
« Reply #29 on: June 13, 2017, 03:30:16 pm »
Ignore

Obligatory reminder that in 2012, Romney only won the under-65 crowd in MS by 5 points:

Relatively young (i.e. non-ancient) whites in Mississippi are probably no less Democratic than whites in, say, Georgia. They're not that much of an anomaly. You're still looking at a majority-white electorate (anywhere from 50/50 to 55/45) even in the 18-29 grouping, meaning that anywhere from 20-25% of those whites are voting Democratic.

It's pretty obvious when looking at both the exit polls and general demography of the state by age that older blacks do not really vote at all in Mississippi (the legacy of the times in which they were raised). This is the predominant problem with flipping MS, but once they - and their white cohorts that are voting 95% R - pass on, the state becomes much more competitive.
 

Not necessarily, a lot of liberal young people in Mississippi probably leave the state and that is probably a major factor in why the older-cohorts are so Republican-voting.

But this is already a factor that is already occurring/accounted for, no?

If you fast-forward 20 years, under the assumption that:

1) -5 points in margin: an 80/20 white electorate that's voting 95% R is gone and replaced with a 70/30 white electorate that is 85% R among whites

2) -10 points in margin: the middle age-groups include a larger percentage of black voters; say, from 30% black to 40% black

3) -1.5 points in margin: maintain the 20% white support among the young whites who are being minted there (also factoring in a larger percentage of voters in this age group being black as well)

Then it'd be a pretty big shift.

I don't think you can extrapolate the voting habits of the 18-29 year old cohort out as they age because these young Democrats probably leave the state at higher rates than younger conservatives.

Mississippi is the worst state in the country for college graduates, while the cost of living here is phenomenally low compared to places even like Metro Atlanta and Nashville there is still a heavy brain drain occurring.  I think a lot of the young talent the state loses to its neighbors would be from more Democratically-inclined youth.   

Logged

2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Fmr. Pres. Griffin
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11773
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #30 on: June 13, 2017, 03:35:11 pm »
Ignore

I don't think you can extrapolate the voting habits of the 18-29 year old cohort out as they age because these young Democrats probably leave the state at higher rates than younger conservatives.

Mississippi is the worst state in the country for college graduates, while the cost of living here is phenomenally low compared to places even like Metro Atlanta and Nashville there is still a heavy brain drain occurring.  I think a lot of the young talent the state loses to its neighbors would be from more Democratically-inclined youth.    

I don't believe that was what I was saying: mainly, I'm looking at how the middle-cohorts (30-64) are voting right now and extrapolating that into older age (both the 65+ and younger categories).

With the 18-29 group specifically, I'm operating under two assumptions: 1) that future 18-29 year-olds won't become more Republican and 2) that future generations of that age group will remain in the state for similar periods of time and in similar numbers to register their voting preferences (i.e. as long as they're in college).

Even if today's youngsters leave in mass numbers, they'll be replaced by future generations of youngsters and I don't necessarily see that cohort leaving at younger and younger ages (and in larger numbers) than today's youth.
Logged




To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
reagente
Full Member
***
Posts: 109
Portugal


View Profile
« Reply #31 on: June 14, 2017, 06:28:35 pm »
Ignore

Obligatory reminder that in 2012, Romney only won the under-65 crowd in MS by 5 points:



Relatively young (i.e. non-ancient) whites in Mississippi are probably no less Democratic than whites in, say, Georgia. They're not that much of an anomaly. You're still looking at a majority-white electorate (anywhere from 50/50 to 55/45) even in the 18-29 grouping, meaning that anywhere from 20-25% of those whites are voting Democratic.

It's pretty obvious when looking at both the exit polls and general demography of the state by age that older blacks do not really vote at all in Mississippi (the legacy of the times in which they were raised). This is the predominant problem with flipping MS, but once they - and their white cohorts that are voting 95% R - pass on, the state becomes much more competitive.


Do exit polls actually weight by age and race together? Do we know that those age categories in the exit polls are racially representative of what those age categories actually look like? I'm thinking of the result from the Florida exit poll this year that had Trump winning 25-29 year olds by 6%, which seems completely inexplicable unless they got the weighting within the age group wrong.

There's also potentially the issue of past exit polls in states like MS, AL & LA underestimating white Democratic support for some reason: it's something I encountered when doing my 2012 county breakdowns and when just delving into 08/12 exit polling data for these states, and have written about on here in the past.

There were instances where the exit polls did not match the confirmed demographic turnout whatsoever; instances where I maxed out black turnout beyond what was reported and gave 100% of the black vote to Obama and yet there was still a discrepancy that could only be explained by an underestimation of white Democratic support in these areas. I don't necessarily buy the 10% for MS & LA, nor the 15% figure for AL.

When I calculated the White vote for 2016. There were no counties where I got negative Clinton support in Alabama. I initially got two such counties in Mississippi, but both of them have corrections facilities in them (and thus a population that's over 20% incarcerated). Thus the actual electorate is probably Whiter than my model lets on. In Louisiana, I got three such Parishes. Two of them had corrections facilities. I tried to make ad hoc adjustments to correct for this electorate issue.

The other one was La Salle Parish, which was only very slightly negative. I suppose its possible that there's just some statistical noise going on, and the relatively small Black population there is slightly more Republican for some random reason, slightly less likely to turn out, or slightly more inclined to support third parties, (or some combination of all of these) for whatever reason.

I don't know if we can say anything definitive about 2012 from this data, since I suppose it's possible that the White vote swung to Trump in the interim, but I thought I'd mention it.

Overall, I'm inclined to think the exit polls are broadly accurate on this. I remember messing around on Dave's Redistricting, and managing to draw a 85.1% White district in Mississippi where Obama only got 15.4% of the vote in 2008.
Logged

mathstatman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1493
United States


View Profile
« Reply #32 on: June 15, 2017, 09:19:33 am »
Ignore

Obligatory reminder that in 2012, Romney only won the under-65 crowd in MS by 5 points:



Relatively young (i.e. non-ancient) whites in Mississippi are probably no less Democratic than whites in, say, Georgia. They're not that much of an anomaly. You're still looking at a majority-white electorate (anywhere from 50/50 to 55/45) even in the 18-29 grouping, meaning that anywhere from 20-25% of those whites are voting Democratic.

It's pretty obvious when looking at both the exit polls and general demography of the state by age that older blacks do not really vote at all in Mississippi (the legacy of the times in which they were raised). This is the predominant problem with flipping MS, but once they - and their white cohorts that are voting 95% R - pass on, the state becomes much more competitive.


Do exit polls actually weight by age and race together? Do we know that those age categories in the exit polls are racially representative of what those age categories actually look like? I'm thinking of the result from the Florida exit poll this year that had Trump winning 25-29 year olds by 6%, which seems completely inexplicable unless they got the weighting within the age group wrong.

There's also potentially the issue of past exit polls in states like MS, AL & LA underestimating white Democratic support for some reason: it's something I encountered when doing my 2012 county breakdowns and when just delving into 08/12 exit polling data for these states, and have written about on here in the past.

There were instances where the exit polls did not match the confirmed demographic turnout whatsoever; instances where I maxed out black turnout beyond what was reported and gave 100% of the black vote to Obama and yet there was still a discrepancy that could only be explained by an underestimation of white Democratic support in these areas. I don't necessarily buy the 10% for MS & LA, nor the 15% figure for AL.

When I calculated the White vote for 2016. There were no counties where I got negative Clinton support in Alabama. I initially got two such counties in Mississippi, but both of them have corrections facilities in them (and thus a population that's over 20% incarcerated). Thus the actual electorate is probably Whiter than my model lets on. In Louisiana, I got three such Parishes. Two of them had corrections facilities. I tried to make ad hoc adjustments to correct for this electorate issue.

The other one was La Salle Parish, which was only very slightly negative. I suppose its possible that there's just some statistical noise going on, and the relatively small Black population there is slightly more Republican for some random reason, slightly less likely to turn out, or slightly more inclined to support third parties, (or some combination of all of these) for whatever reason.

I don't know if we can say anything definitive about 2012 from this data, since I suppose it's possible that the White vote swung to Trump in the interim, but I thought I'd mention it.

Overall, I'm inclined to think the exit polls are broadly accurate on this. I remember messing around on Dave's Redistricting, and managing to draw a 85.1% White district in Mississippi where Obama only got 15.4% of the vote in 2008.

10% of MS whites for Clinton may be a bit low. But 12-14% I can believe.

Tishomingo Co, MS (2.6% Black) voted 86-12 Trump; Itawamba Co, MS (6.5% Black) voted 87-11 Trump; and George Co, MS (8.8% Black) voted 88-10 Trump. Thus, in these counties, white support for Clinton was in the single digits. I'm sure whites in places like Hinds, Rankin, Hancock, and Oktibbeha counties were somewhat more Democratic.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines