2006 Predictions (user search)
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  2006 Predictions (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2006 Predictions  (Read 12852 times)
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« on: September 06, 2005, 03:19:58 PM »
Democratic incumbents are pretty safe. The Republicans best chance to knock off an incumbent is Kent Conrad in ND (but only if Governor Hoeven runs). There are several Republican incumbents in danger, such as Santorum, Chafee, DeWine, Talent, and Conrad Burns.

Democrats have a good chance to keep the Minnesota seat. Bush is very unpopular in Minnesota (39% approval?) and Kennedy votes with Bush something like 97% of the time. He is a total Bush clone and that won't play well in Minnesota.

I won't make any predictions except that the Democrats will pick up at least one or two seats.
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2005, 03:22:09 PM »
We should be hearing an announcement from Tim Ryan in Ohio anytime now. If he runs, it instantly becomes a top tier race.
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2005, 03:36:46 PM »
Quite the pessimist, huh Tweed?
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2005, 04:03:17 PM »
« Edited: September 06, 2005, 04:12:30 PM by Scoonie »
Montana is our 5th best pickup opportunity.

Burns is vulnerable but the Democrat will have to run an excellent campaign and borrow from the Schweitzer playbook to win.
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2005, 05:39:03 PM »
Quote from: Sarnstrom on September 06, 2005, 05:05:15 PM
Quote from: Downwinder on September 06, 2005, 05:01:01 PM
I will also add North Dakota to that list; my gut tells me that Hoeven won't run.
I don't think he's going to run either I think he would have announced by now.

He doesn't have to announce early. As governor, he's extremely well known and could even jump in next year and be very competitive.

The only disadvantage to declaring late for Hoeven is fundraising. I wouldn't count out him running.

I think the fact that he hasn't announced sends a signal that he is running.
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2005, 05:41:31 PM »
Quote from: Downwinder on September 06, 2005, 05:01:01 PM
However, although the Democrats are recruiting very good candidates, they aren't running on any coherent message.

Well, they haven't even started campaigning yet.

I definitely feel that after the 2004 elections, the Democrats have learned their lesson and will have a clear, coherent message for the 2006 elections. I know that Howard Dean has talked about the need for a clear message repeatedly.
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2005, 05:53:19 PM »

As long as there is one for the 2006 campaigns, it's all good. It's too early to do any serious campaigning anyway. That won't start until next year.
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2005, 07:12:14 PM »
Democrats have to be careful or they could lose the New Jersey Senate seat in 2006.

Better they go with Richard Codey or Rob Andrews instead of Menendez. Kean, Jr. will be a fairly strong candidate.
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