Clarity Campaigns (IL-10/3) - Dold narrowly ahead, Lipinski Safe

[muon2]

Schneider is in a primary with Rotering. Dold isnt. And Schneider just lost the seat in 2014. 

It will be a close election at end.

I'm well aware of that, but just like Carol Shea-Porter, they both only lost because precisely nobody came out to vote. Shea-Porter will win again in 2016 and then probably lose again in 2018.

Anyway, crossover is a real problem with the Democratic Party. I can't think of a single Democrat who could win in an R+8 district, and here's a narrow election in a district we should be the rightful owners of. Looks like the IL Legislature needs to do a better job of drawing Dold out of office come 2020.

The issue is viewing CDs solely in terms of PVI. PVI is based on the last two presidential elections which both had favorite son Obama. That worth at least a couple of points on the PVI, and Obama isn't on the ballot in 2016. The area of CD 10 is a bit of a mirror of the blue dog districts of the south with a split between presidential and local representation. That distorts the PVI a bit as well.

For example, Lake county was 58% for Rauner in 2014 after voting 53% for Obama in 2012. Here's Miles breakdown by CD. Note Rauner's performance in CD 10.

Illinois

Summary:


Detailed breakdowns.

[muon2]

Worth noting that even thought Obama is not on the ballot in 16, I don't foresee a major shift in the district. The Democratic Presidential candidate will win it again handily and Dold will outperform the GOP Presidential candidate significantly.

The key is that Dold will outperform the GOP nom for pres and the district will shift slightly Pub without Obama. It's the two factors added together that will help determine the outcome. Small changes in turnout can decide the race.

When you use the word handily, that has to be in the context of how the national campaign is going since PVI is measured against the national results. Let's say that the CD is closer to D+5 instead of D+8 without Obama. That swing would be consistent with other similar suburbs elsewhere around Chicago. Then let's say that Dold can outperform the GOP pres nominee by 5 points. In 2012 I think he beat Romney by about 7 or 8 points in his district, so 5 seems pretty reasonable. That makes the district even, so the district would need a winning Dem for pres to carry for the Dem candidate in the CD.