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This is like when Bob Wiggin tried to pass a bill in the UK Parliament in 2019 that would have banned people consuming dog meat and, when pressed on the matter, said he had no evidence of anybody in the UK actually eating dog meat and his bill was just intended as a symbol of solidarity with anti-dog-meat protestors in China

https://Twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793336678096019874?t=QU1_O62L4ZAVCm0P6r...

Selections are going to come fast now. Here's the Lib-Dems choosing someone asap for a target seat. And Corbyns former seat becomes even more of a stitch-up:

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793378252154913030?t=l8uSukHrwSpAga0xdI...

How many seats has Paul Mason failed to be selected in at this point?

How are candidates chosen?

no.

Unlike the Colorado and Maine decisions, this is a pure technicality. It's clearly objective and written on paper. Ohio doesn't have to let Biden on the ballot, but the DNC can prepone their convention if they want. Or maybe Biden just doesn't care about Ohio anyway.

they will sue in court and a judge will order Biden be placed on the ballot.

I do think there is a state that’s going to give an Indiana 2008 like results in November,  but I cannot pinpoint certainly which one would be it.

I don't think this is possible with how modern media works. Sure there could be a shock flip, but I think if there is one the state remains competitive in the long run and doesn't just lurch left.

Indiana was able to have a uniquely strong lurch left 2004-->2008 because Obama spent money in the state and McCain didn't; this reflected in County level results where demographically similar counties in IL and OH didn't quite experience the same magnitudes of swings. Then in 2012 when Obama bailed on the state it swung back hard right and voted for Romney by double-digits.

These sorts of regional boost from localized spending are much much smaller if not non-existent today because of increased polarization and the nationalization of media since then.

Indiana in 2012 shifted right but not anywhere near the 20% Bush or Trump got. The Obama effect was still very much noticeable.

If these numbers are the best a Democrat  sponsored polling company can do, then Biden is in trouble. He really needs to kill it in the debate in June if he wants to change things.

Bad polls for Biden = here's how it's bad for Biden
Decent/good polls for Biden = nope they're wrong, here's how it's bad for Biden
Great polls for Biden = these must be fake, they're overestimating Ds again, outlier, here's how it's bad for Biden

I'm not saying these polls are gospel but this is the truth with a lot of people on this forum. A lot of these results do line up with recent polling results we've gotten.

Can someone cite these "great polls for Biden" because even the best outliers he is getting generally have him doing worse than 2020?

Like we should statistically be getting outliers in his favor and if the best he is doing in any polls from anyone is right around, well, these numbers, that's not what I would call "great".

It's not something I ever thought about.

Reform holding an event tomorrow in which Nigel Farage's role in the campaign will be announced.

So either supporting from the sidelines (with the occasional rally), or announcing a run in Clacton?

This thread has left me 5% betrayed, 8% curious and 87% completely and utterly confused

A lot of Tories seem very *very* unhappy about this - not least because they had been told just a few weeks ago that this definitely wasn't happening, and several made plans accordingly.

So how plausible are the rumor that some Tory MPs want to oust Sunak and undo the call for an election?

I cannot imagine a situation that would hurt the Tories more than that one occuring, though.

Even if they ousted sunak, a rebellion of that size would almost immediately cause a VONC and elections anyway.