Sabato Crystal Ball Megathread

[Ebsy]

Suffolk had Romney so far ahead in Virginia they stopped polling there lol.

There was a lot of stupidity from the usual suspects in 2012.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Any reason VA was Lean R? I'm just curious whether he posted any #analysis.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/

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So evidently he thought it was a toss-up but had some reasoning to pick under a "if I had a gun to my head..." scenario.

Other than that, dunno. sowwies!

Oh, I actually remember the answer to this!

The day before the election, they said they felt comfortable about making calls in all but three states: New Hampshire, Colorado, and Virginia. Due to their desire to call every state, they gave Colorado and New Hampshire to Obama (totaling 13 electoral votes), and gave Virginia (also 13) to Romney.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Any reason VA was Lean R? I'm just curious whether he posted any #analysis.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/

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So evidently he thought it was a toss-up but had some reasoning to pick under a "if I had a gun to my head..." scenario.

Other than that, dunno. sowwies!

I see. This makes sense... if he wanted to avoid tossups. How stubborn!

[ApatheticAustrian]

final map





Larry Sabato's Final Map: • #Hillary 322 #Trump 216 • Senate 50/50
https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/795680732509257730?lang=de

[Devout Centrist]

I agree with this, give or take AZ and OH (maybe both CD's too)

[Person Man]

I agree with this, give or take AZ and OH (maybe both CD's too)

The closest states are NC,FL,AZ, and either Ohio or New Hamphire, Nortern Maine, Omaha or Nevada. Maybe Georgia or Iowa will be under 5.

[DavidB.]

ME-2 isn't lean R. The rest seems correct.

[ProudModerate2]

For the most part I agree with Sabato's map. But ....
ME-02 will more than likely go to Clinton.
OH might be won by Hillary, instead of trump (small chance, but maybe).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

His electoral map is identical to mine, and his confidence ratings are very similar.

NC, OH, and ME-2 are the main points of disagreement everywhere.  In all states there's a pretty clear favorite.

[Mallow]

I agree with this, give or take AZ and OH (maybe both CD's too)

This is exactly my thought as well. I'm going with the odd result of AZ for Clinton and OH for Trump (both by less than 1%).

[Xing]

I'm not sure why he has Trump winning ME-02, but Poliquin losing. I would think the opposite would be much more likely. Anyway, not a bad prediction, though I'm still making up my mind about Ohio and NE-02.

[ProudModerate2]

His electoral map is identical to mine, and his confidence ratings are very similar.

NC, OH, and ME-2 are the main points of disagreement everywhere.  In all states there's a pretty clear favorite.

I think you are right.
NC, OH and ME-02 seem to be the states most of us here on Atlas are having trouble with.