FL: Rereredistricting

[TJ in Oregon]

The minority packing is of a contiguous area, makes for a compact CD, and it is the only way to elect a minority, although that would not be guaranteed, but if Hispanics are willing to vote for a black to some extent in a Dem primary, or blacks an Hispanic to some extent, it will happen. Having two Dem CD's means electing two white liberals, and shutting out a minority congressperson.  

Do we have historical evidence of racial block voting in Democratic primaries in this area, so that there is a candidate of the "white community"'s choice who will defeat a candidate reflecting the choice of the black or Hispanic communities? The race of the candidate himself is somewhat related to that, but it varies a lot. I'm not trying to be difficult here, but Central Florida is really unlike places like L.A. County or Brooklyn where this equation is usually considered.

The Puerto Rican population in the Orlando area is relatively new (compared to other majority minority areas at least...).     I don't know if FL-9 was drawn intentionally as a majority minority district, but it follows along the same guidelines of separating the African American population in FL-24 from the Hispanic (Cuban) populations in FL-25 or FL-27.   

If they're just going to cram them together they're no reason to think that FL-24 to the south shouldn't be called out as a vote sink and joined with the surrounding districts as well.

I believe FL-24 is a Section 2 VRA seat and can't be carved up under federal law regardless of what the Florida law says.

[TJ in Oregon]

The minority packing is of a contiguous area, makes for a compact CD, and it is the only way to elect a minority, although that would not be guaranteed, but if Hispanics are willing to vote for a black to some extent in a Dem primary, or blacks an Hispanic to some extent, it will happen. Having two Dem CD's means electing two white liberals, and shutting out a minority congressperson.  

Do we have historical evidence of racial block voting in Democratic primaries in this area, so that there is a candidate of the "white community"'s choice who will defeat a candidate reflecting the choice of the black or Hispanic communities? The race of the candidate himself is somewhat related to that, but it varies a lot. I'm not trying to be difficult here, but Central Florida is really unlike places like L.A. County or Brooklyn where this equation is usually considered.

The Puerto Rican population in the Orlando area is relatively new (compared to other majority minority areas at least...).     I don't know if FL-9 was drawn intentionally as a majority minority district, but it follows along the same guidelines of separating the African American population in FL-24 from the Hispanic (Cuban) populations in FL-25 or FL-27.   

If they're just going to cram them together they're no reason to think that FL-24 to the south shouldn't be called out as a vote sink and joined with the surrounding districts as well.

I believe FL-24 is a Section 2 VRA seat and can't be carved up under federal law regardless of what the Florida law says.

Yes, obviously FL-24 won't be broken up.   The issue is it's a group of minorities under pretty much the same situation as the African Americans in FL-24 that are in Orange and Osceola Counties.

Not quite. The main difference is that in FL-24 there actually is a large enough contiguous minority (black in this case) population to hit 50.1% BVAP, which is sufficiently high to for the minority group to elect the candidate of its choice. In the case of Orlando, the minority population is not high enough to guarantee the minority group will be able to elect the candidate of its choice. See the South Texas Hispanic seats. Since no single minority group qualifies under Section 2 (like in FL-24), the drawing falls to Florida law. Florida law is ambiguous as to whether the map drawers are required to put both minority groups into one seat so at least one of them will get the candidate of their choice (perhaps both if they have the same candidate of their choice, hence the questions about Puerto Ricans supporting black politicians in the primary), or whether the two groups must be separated to maximize the number of minority-majority seats. No one seems to know the answer to that question or what the Florida Supreme Court thinks about it. Republicans are hoping the former and Democrats are hoping the latter.

[TJ in Oregon]

Torie, what's the BVAP of your district 5? It looks like it might be a little lower than most of the maps I've seen and I was wondering if it may be too low for the court to approve?

The way you drew it leads to everything else ending up more contiguous than if you shift more of FL-5 into Jacksonville, but are we allowed to draw it that way?

[TJ in Oregon]

Sjoyce and other Floridans,
Could you confirm the GOP is literally stupid?

There have been a number of cunning and devious leaders throughout the past few decades who have turned the RPOF into a formidable political force.

Blaise Ingoglia is not one of them.

Wait, why are Republicans "letting this happen"?

Because there's no "Republicans" - the Republicans in the House and the Republicans in the Senate have different aims and interests.

And can Graham be saved in the end?

Graham? Absolutely no way. The Florida Supreme Court made that impossible the moment they required an East-West configuration of FL-5. The question is how many other seats the Dems will pick up in addition to Jolly and Webster.

[TJ in Oregon]

Doesn't the VRA require that a Section 2 district must allow the minority group to elect the candidate of its choice if the area has racially polarized voting? Why would electing a Hispanic Democrat meet that requirement any more than if, say, a SC seat were hypothetically gerrymandered to be 50% black and still elect Tim Scott. Or is the Cuban population sufficiently Democratic and/or dilute that this rule doesn't apply?