Early Elections in Greece (October 4th)

[Landslide Lyndon]

It wasn't exactly a surprise. But during the last days there was intense pressure to Karamanlis by members of his government and his party not to proceed into dissolving the parliament because they are facing the prospect of certain defeat by the Socialists.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090902/ap_on_re_eu/eu_greece_elections 

[Bono]

Didn't they have a majority?

[minionofmidas]

Didn't they have a majority?

Quote article: "Karamanlis, 52, has a majority of just one seat in the 300-member Parliament."
Which would mean one government MP must have defected to the opposition, as ND won 152 seats last election.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Didn't they have a majority?

Quote article: "Karamanlis, 52, has a majority of just one seat in the 300-member Parliament."
Which would mean one government MP must have defected to the opposition, as ND won 152 seats last election.

Nobody defected to the opposition. One of his MPs was ousted from the party because of his outspoken criticism against the Prime Minister. He remains an independent.

The truth is that he called early elections because he was unable to handle our fiscal crisis and his party is embroiled in the Siemens scandal, among other stuff.

[Meeker]

Sooo... PASOK FTW?

[Хahar 🤔]

Sooo... PASOK FTW?

No, Synaspismos.

[Hash]

Sooo... PASOK FTW?

In terms of likelihood to win, yes, PASOK will win (sadly). In terms of best parties, the Greens are the only remotely decent with Synaspismos in second.

[big bad fab]

Sooo... PASOK FTW?

In terms of likelihood to win, yes, PASOK will win (sadly). In terms of best parties, the Greens are the only remotely decent with Synaspismos in second.

Hash is so right.
ND isn't a fine bunch, granted, but PASOK is unable to make all the needed reforms.

[SPQR]

I have a Greek friend so I've always followed Greek politics quite closely...hope Pasok wins and LAOS disappears.

[Hash]

Mid-August poll by ALCO

PASOK 31.2
ND 26.3
KKE 7.6
LAOS 5.0
Synaspismos 4.1
Greens 2.8

23% are undecided, and Greek polls, like American ones, count undecideds in the results. The new electoral threshold for a majority set by ND is 39% (and not 41.5% like in 2007), which probably gives PASOK a majority quite easily. The threshold for seats is still 3%, which means the Greenies likely get in, giving a real decent party in Parliament for once.

The Euro results, fwiw, were PASOK 36.7%, ND 32.3%, KKE 8.4%, LAOS 7.1%, SYN 4.7%, Greens 3.5%.

There is, imo, no great love for PASOK either (nor is there any love for ND) and the main beneficiaries seem to be LAOS (which will do rather better than in 2007) and the Greens.

[Jens]

A pitty about the collaps of SYRIZA - It was much more fun when they were looking at 10-15 % of the votes.

[Hash]

A pitty about the collaps of SYRIZA - It was much more fun when they were looking at 10-15 % of the votes.

My own opinion would say that the riots hurt them. Not sure, of course.

[Jens]

A pitty about the collaps of SYRIZA - It was much more fun when they were looking at 10-15 % of the votes.

My own opinion would say that the riots hurt them. Not sure, of course.

That is my understanding too.

[Silent Hunter]

What's the Siemens scandal? Something involving the mobile phone company?

[Hash]

What's the Siemens scandal? Something involving the mobile phone company?

IIRC something about Siemens and the 2004 Olympics. Though ND certainly isn't the only guilty party in this.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A pitty about the collaps of SYRIZA - It was much more fun when they were looking at 10-15 % of the votes.

My own opinion would say that the riots hurt them. Not sure, of course.

That is my understanding too.

You're both right. Synaspismos defended vociferously the rioters and that cost them dearly among the people who where disgusted by the constant violence, destruction of public AND private property and looting.
There was no love lost for the police forces and the government but there is even less tolerance for masked hooligans destroying the stores and cars of innocent, hard working citizens.

What's the Siemens scandal? Something involving the mobile phone company?

IIRC something about Siemens and the 2004 Olympics. Though ND certainly isn't the only guilty party in this.

Siemens bribed both parties, that's for sure. But it seems to hurt ND more because they campaigned on an anti-corruption platform and promised a "clean" government.
Not to mention that while PASOK demands a full investigation about who took bribes and when, ND has waffled on the issue for months now.

[Silent Hunter]

Thanks for that.

[Hash]

New poll:

With undecideds:
PASOK 34.4
ND 27.9
KKE 7.5
LAOS 5.5
SYRIZA 3.1
Greens 2.5

After proportional and equal split of undecideds:
PASOK 37.6
ND 31.6
KKE 10.7
LAOS 8.7
SYRIZA 6.3
Greens 5.7

Of course, there was a late push to the ND in 2007 which ended giving up ND the 'magic' 42% when they weren't expected to reach that number, so you might see a similar thing in 2009 (since PASOK remains far from the magic 41.5-42% 'required' for a majority)

[Хahar 🤔]

px, who will you be voting for?

[Landslide Lyndon]

px, who will you be voting for?

Honestly I don't know. Certainly not for any of the two big parties or the Communists.

[Hash]

Two vote/election day projections. In addition, my totally wrong seat projections

Public Issue for Skai TV and Kathimerini
PASOK 41 (149)
ND 35.5 (95)
KKE 8.5 (24)
LAOS 7 (20)
SYRIZA 4 (12)
Greens 2
(Others 2, I suppose)

Metron Analysis for ANT1 TV, redistributed to 100% (I have no clue why this one summed to 82%) including 2% for others
PASOK 38.4 (141)
ND 32.3 (85)
KKE 9 (24)
LAOS 7.3 (20)
SYRIZA 6.7 (18)
Greens 4.3 (12)
Others 2

And a regular poll:

MRB for Real FM

With undecideds:

PASOK 33.1
ND 27.7
KKE 7.7
LAOS 5.5
SYRIZA 3.4
Greens 1.4
Undecided 21.2

After proportional and equal split of undecideds:

PASOK 36.6
ND 31.2
KKE 11.2
LAOS 9
SYRIZA 6.9
Greens 4.9

[Hash]

MARC for Ethnos - final vote projection:

PASOK 41.6%
ND 34.9%
KKE 8.4%
LAOS 6.3%
Syriza 4.2%
Green 2.5%

[Hash]

Elections tomorrow. No new polls published that I've seen, since Greece bans publication of polls two week before the election.

Prediction:

PASOK 42%
ND 34%
KKE 9%
LAOS 6%
Syriza 4%
Green 3%
Others 2%

[Landslide Lyndon]

Elections tomorrow. No new polls published that I've seen, since Greece bans publication of polls two week before the election.

Prediction:

PASOK 42%
ND 34%
KKE 9%
LAOS 6%
Syriza 4%
Green 3%
Others 2%

I read that last week Forbes and Wall Street Journal published polls about our election.
They were pretty similar ( 7,5 and 6,9% difference between PASOK and ND).

SYRIZA will enter the parliament, thanks in great part to a good debate performance by his leader, Alexis Tsipras.

The Greens will miss barely the 3% threshold, mainly because many of their prominent members hold views which are considered (rightfully IMHO) unpatriotic, if not outright treasonous. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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