A 10 point swing

[sentinel]

Your 5 point swing to Mitt Romney is dead wrong if you're using real state by state results.

what do you mean by that

4 states were within 5 points. Virginia, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. Not the numerous ones you put.

I think you misunderstood what a 5 point swing was.  I am taking 5 points from obama and giving that five points to Romney so actually it would be 10 point swing

No...

For example

If historical results are say

Ohio: Obama - 57, Romney - 43

A five point swing to Romney would be...

Ohio: Obama - 52, Romney - 48

You can't say "its a 5 point swing" and then go "its really a 10 point swing" Its math, its either 5 points or 10.

I think he means 5 point swing in that 5% PV goes to Romney

So he's just eyeballing what he thinks a 5 point swing would look like --even though we have state by state data to determine a hypothetical result?

[Jerseyrules]

Your 5 point swing to Mitt Romney is dead wrong if you're using real state by state results.

what do you mean by that

4 states were within 5 points. Virginia, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. Not the numerous ones you put.

I think you misunderstood what a 5 point swing was.  I am taking 5 points from obama and giving that five points to Romney so actually it would be 10 point swing

No...

For example

If historical results are say

Ohio: Obama - 57, Romney - 43

A five point swing to Romney would be...

Ohio: Obama - 52, Romney - 48

You can't say "its a 5 point swing" and then go "its really a 10 point swing" Its math, its either 5 points or 10.

I think he means 5 point swing in that 5% PV goes to Romney

So he's just eyeballing what he thinks a 5 point swing would look like --even though we have state by state data to determine a hypothetical result?

No I'm just saying there was a discrepancy on the definition of 5 point swing.  Is it R+5 D-5 for a net shift of 10 or a R+2.5 D-2.5 for a net shift of 5?  You thought the latter and he thought the former.

[JerryArkansas]

Your 5 point swing to Mitt Romney is dead wrong if you're using real state by state results.

what do you mean by that

4 states were within 5 points. Virginia, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. Not the numerous ones you put.

I think you misunderstood what a 5 point swing was.  I am taking 5 points from obama and giving that five points to Romney so actually it would be 10 point swing

No...

For example

If historical results are say

Ohio: Obama - 57, Romney - 43

A five point swing to Romney would be...

Ohio: Obama - 52, Romney - 48

You can't say "its a 5 point swing" and then go "its really a 10 point swing" Its math, its either 5 points or 10.

I think he means 5 point swing in that 5% PV goes to Romney

So he's just eyeballing what he thinks a 5 point swing would look like --even though we have state by state data to determine a hypothetical result?

No I'm just saying there was a discrepancy on the definition of 5 point swing.  Is it R+5 D-5 for a net shift of 10 or a R+2.5 D-2.5 for a net shift of 5?  You thought the latter and he thought the former.

I'm sorry for confusing you.  The title made sense in my head and I didn't think of what others would think.  I also was going with the first def of 5 point swing

[Jerseyrules]

Your 5 point swing to Mitt Romney is dead wrong if you're using real state by state results.

what do you mean by that

4 states were within 5 points. Virginia, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. Not the numerous ones you put.

I think you misunderstood what a 5 point swing was.  I am taking 5 points from obama and giving that five points to Romney so actually it would be 10 point swing

No...

For example

If historical results are say

Ohio: Obama - 57, Romney - 43

A five point swing to Romney would be...

Ohio: Obama - 52, Romney - 48

You can't say "its a 5 point swing" and then go "its really a 10 point swing" Its math, its either 5 points or 10.

I think he means 5 point swing in that 5% PV goes to Romney

So he's just eyeballing what he thinks a 5 point swing would look like --even though we have state by state data to determine a hypothetical result?

No I'm just saying there was a discrepancy on the definition of 5 point swing.  Is it R+5 D-5 for a net shift of 10 or a R+2.5 D-2.5 for a net shift of 5?  You thought the latter and he thought the former.

I'm sorry for confusing you.  The title made sense in my head and I didn't think of what others would think.  I also was going with the first def of 5 point swing

No problem we all do that sometimes

[JerryArkansas]

1976

Five point swing to Carter

Carter 499
Ford 39

Five Point swing to Ford

Ford 433
Carter 105

[JerryArkansas]

1972

Five point swing to Nixon

Nixon 535
McGovern 3


Five Point swing to McGovern

Nixon 486
McGovern 52
(This shows how bad McGovern had his but kicked)

[JerryArkansas]

1968

Five point swing to Wallace from Nixon

Nixon 131
Humphrey 330
Wallace 77

Will post the rest later

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Iowa in 1988 is shocking.

1972

Five Point swing to McGovern

Nixon 486
McGovern 52
(This shows how bad McGovern had his but kicked)

Not really.  It was one of Dukakis's best states by nature of the farming depression.  And the result of the 1984 swing from Mondale to Reagan shows how badly Mondale got his butt kicked too.

[Nichlemn]

Interesting how polarised 2008/12 are compared to previous years, especially 92/96 and 76. Clinton does much better in the EC than Obama does with comparable victories. Same with Carter/Ford in 76.