The Romney Downfall - or is it? - and Beyond

[Enderman]

FL 7 and 13?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FL 7 and 13?

FL 7 is unchanged from RL.

For FL 13, Rep. Alex Sink (D) and Kathleen Peters (R) won uncompetitive primaries.

[Enderman]

FL 7 and 13?

FL 7 is unchanged from RL.

For FL 13, Rep. Alex Sink (D) and Kathleen Peters (R) won uncompetitive primaries.

Oh okay thanks

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

September 9th, 2014 - The Final Primaries

Delaware

Prelude - Sen. Chris Coons (D) is unopposed in his primary, and the republicans are choosing between two sacrificial lambs.

Key Contested Primaries

Republican Senator

Kevin Wade - 55%
Carl Smink - 45%

Massachusetts

Prelude - Despite early rumors of Fmr. Sen. Scott Brown (R) planning to move to NH to challenge Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), he decided to remain in Massachusetts and run for Governor. Following that announcement, 2010 Nominee Charlie Baker (R) elected to run for the 9th congressional district instead, and he is in an uncompetitive primary there, leaving Scott Brown virtually unopposed in the republican gubernatorial primary. On the democratic side, the likely nominee is 2010 Special Senate Nominee Martha Coakley, but her margin of victory in the primary is unlikely to be huge.

On the senate side, it is extremely quiet. Sen. John Kerry (D) is unopposed in his own primary, as is Brian Herr (R) in his. Finally, in the 6th congressional district, Fmr. Marine Corps Officer Seth Moulton (D) and Fmr. Rep. John Tierney (D) are vying for the right to take on Rep. Richard Tisei (R) in November.

Key Contested Primaries

Democratic Governor

Martha Coakley - 41.4%
Steve Grossman - 35.3%
Donald Berwick - 23.3%

Republican Governor

Scott Brown - 85%
Mark Fischer - 15%

Democratic MA-06

Seth Moulton - 48%
John Tierney - 42.4%
Marissa DeFranco - 5.3%
John DeVine - 2.7%
John Gutta - 1.6%

New Hampshire

Prelude - Throughout much of 2013, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) unopposed in her own senate primary, was breathing sighs of relief as Fmr. Sen. John Sununu (R), Fmr. MA Sen. Scott Brown (R), Fmr. Reps. Frank Guinta (R) and Charles Bass (R), NH Sen. Maj. Leader Jeb Bradley (R), and Fmr. Sen. Judd Gregg (R) all opted against challenging her. But that all changed when NH University 'Dean' Dan Innis (R) decided to challenge Shaheen instead of running for NH-01, dominating the senate primary field. (and leaving Guinta virtually unopposed in the NH-01 Rep. Primary). Now Shaheen has a tough race on her hands, and is preparing for the worst.

Gov. Maggie Hassan (D), facing only token opposition in her own gubernatorial primary, will also face a tough challenge, as Jeb Bradley is the likely republican nominee for the gubernatorial race.

Key Contested Primaries

Republican Senator

Dan Innis - 63.4%
Bob Smith - 14.3%
Jim Rubens - 10.4%
Walter Kelly - 6.3%
Andy Martin - 4.2%
Robert D'Arcy - 1.4%

Democratic Governor

Maggie Hassan - 88%
Ian Freeman - 8%
Clecia Terrio - 4%

Republican Governor

Jeb Bradley - 80%
Andrew Hemingway - 18.6%
Daniel Greene - 1.4%

Rhode Island

Prelude - The democratic gubernatorial primary is highly competitive, and Allan Fung (R) is dominating the republican primary.

Key Contested Primaries

Democratic Governor

Gina Raimondo - 34.4%
Angel Traveras - 30.4%
Clay Pell - 26.2%
Todd Giroux - 9%

Republican Governor

Allan Fung - 63%
Ken Block - 37%

Democratic Lt. Governor

Daniel McKee - 43%
Ralph Mollis - 36%
Frank Ferri - 21%

New York State/Local Primaries

Prelude - Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) faces spirited primary opposition from activist Zephyr Teachout (D), but is not in real danger of losing. Rob Astorino (R) is unopposed in the republican primary.

Key Contested Primaries

Democratic Governor

Andrew Cuomo - 59.8%
Zephyr Teachout - 36.7%
Randy Credico - 3.5%

Democratic Lt. Governor

Kathy Hochul - 58%
Timothy Wu - 42%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Alaska and Kansas - The Dropouts

The democrats, realizing they were facing a very tough election cycle, made 2 drastic, last-minute choices to defeat as many republicans as possible.

First, on September 2, 2014, after significant pressure from the democratic party, Byron Mallott (D) dropped out of the AK gubernatorial race and joined Independent Bill Walker's Ticket as the Lt. Governor Nominee. The original Dem. and Indy. Lt. Gov. Nominees dropped out of the race entirely. The DGA has endorsed this Indy-Dem. unity ticket and is hoping it can defeat Gov. Sean Parnell (R) in November.

Second, on September 3, 2014, after significant pressure from the democratic party, Chad Taylor (D) dropped out of the KS Senate Race, endorsing Independent Greg Orman and leaving Orman as the main challenger to Sen. Pat Roberts (R). Orman has said he will caucus with whichever party is in the majority, and that if he's the deciding vote for Senate Control, he will make a careful choice in the weeks after the GE. The democrats hoped that Orman would allow them to reach at least 51 senate seats including Orman's vote.

However, the next day, KS Secretary of State Heather Kobach (R) said that Taylor must remain on the ballot, due to issues with the exact wording of his withdrawal declaration. Taylor appealed to the KS supreme court, who reversed Kobach's decision on September 18, taking Taylor off the ballot. Kobach has now demanded that the democratic party name a replacement candidate, but so far said party is refusing to do so.


--------------

Next Time: September 20th GE Polls

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

September 20th GE Polls

Senate:

Alaska Poll:

Mark Begich: 47%
Mead Treadwell: 46%

Oregon Poll:

Gordon Smith: 46%
Jeff Merkley: 46%

Wyoming Poll:

Mike Enzi: 47%
Dave Frudenthal: 44%

Colorado Poll:

Cory Gardner: 46%
Mark Udall: 45%

New Mexico Poll:

Susana Martinez: 48%
Tom Udall: 45%

South Dakota Poll:

Larry Rhoden: 34%
Larry Pressler: 30%
Rick Weiland: 25%

Kansas Poll:

Greg Orman: 45%
Pat Roberts: 43%

Minnesota Poll:

Al Franken: 48%
Erik Paulsen: 44%

Michigan Poll:

Gary Peters: 48%
Mike Rogers: 44%

Kentucky Poll:

Mitch McConnell: 45%
Daniel Mongiardo: 45%

North Carolina Poll:

Kay Hagan: 47%
Thom Tillis: 44%

New Hampshire Poll:

Jeanne Shaheen: 48%
Dan Innis: 45%

Georgia Poll:

Saxby Chambliss: 48%
Roy Barnes: 41%

Louisiana Poll (Dec. 6 Runoff):

Bill Cassidy: 49%
Mary Landrieu: 43%

Rob Maness: 45%
Mary Landrieu: 45%

Virginia Poll:

Mark Warner: 47%
Bill Bolling: 42%

New Jersey Poll:

Cory Booker: 50%
Frank LoBiondo: 44%

Iowa Poll:

Tom Latham: 48%
Bruce Braley: 38%

Arkansas Poll:

Tom Cotton: 48%
Mark Pryor: 37%

Montana Poll:

Steve Daines: 56%
Amanda Curtis: 35%

West Virginia Poll:

Shelley Moore Capito: 59%
Natalie Tennant: 35%

Governor:

Alaska Poll:

Bill Walker: 47%
Sean Parnell: 45%

Oregon Poll:

Greg Walden: 46%
John Kitzhaber: 46%

Colorado Poll:

Scott Gessler: 47%
John Hickenlooper: 44%

Kansas Poll:

Paul Davis: 46%
Sam Brownback: 42%

Minnesota Poll:

Mark Dayton: 47%
Norm Coleman: 45%

Wisconsin Poll:

Scott Walker: 48%
Mary Burke: 45%

Michigan Poll:

Rick Snyder: 48%
Mark Schauer: 44%

Connnecticut Poll:

Chris Shays: 46%
Daniel Malloy: 44%

Massachusetts:

Scott Brown: 47%
Martha Coakley: 43%

New Hampshire Poll:

Maggie Hassan: 47%
Jeb Bradley: 43%

Maine Poll:

Paul LePage: 40%
Mike Michaud: 40%
Eliot Cutler: 12%

Florida Poll:

Bill Nelson: 49%
Rick Scott: 44%

Rhode Island Poll:

Gina Raimondo: 39%
Allan Fung: 37%
Robert Healey: 15%

Vermont Poll:

Peter Shumlin: 50%
Scott Milne: 42%

Arizona Poll:

Doug Ducey: 47%
Fred Duval: 40%

New Mexico Poll:

Heather Wilson: 50%
Gary King: 43%

Illinois Poll:

Kirk Dillard: 48%
Pat Quinn: 42%

Ohio Poll:

John Kasich: 47%
Richard Cordray: 42%

Georgia Poll:

Nathan Deal: 47%
Jason Carter: 40%

Arkansas Poll:

Asa Hutchinson: 48%
Mike Ross: 38%

South Carolina Poll:

Nikki Haley: 50%
Vincent Sheheen: 39%

Maryland Poll:

Anthony Brown: 51%
Larry Hogan: 41%

Pennsylvania Poll:

Tom Wolf: 56%
Tom Corbett: 37%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Final Month

After watching the KS Democratic Party continue to fail to name a replacement candidate, Heather Kobach attempted to get the courts to force them to do it. However, this effort failed when 1) The Supreme Court of KS required a state district court to handle the case instead, and 2) an alleged "heartbroken democratic voter" that Kobach had found failed to show up to the district court's hearing on September 30th. Unfortunately for Kobach, it was too late to schedule another hearing, and Orman would remain the main challenger to Pat Roberts.

Following this, on October 2nd, Orman announced, without warning, that he had decided, regardless of how the other senate elections around the country went, that, he, if victorious, would caucus with the republican party. While many expected the DSCC to withdraw their endorsement of Orman over this, they did not - Orman remained significantly to the left of Pat Roberts politically, and because Orman was running on the ballot's independent line, they could support him without breaking any party rules. For Orman, this appeared to be the perfect move - suddenly, all the "where does Orman stand?" attacks that might have sunk him otherwise were suddenly moot. He got loads of new supporters and a huge boost in the polls. This only intensified when he got the endorsement of Pat Roberts failed primary challenger, Milton Wolf, on October 11th. Announced in a speech where Wolf called Pat Roberts "The worst republican ever!", the endorsement resulted in a major increase to Orman's support from the TP, and did not have a statistically significant effect on his support with any other part of the electorate.

And Orman had coattails. As his polling got better and better, Gov. Brownback's got worse and worse, and on October 18th, the NRSC and the RGA announced that they were conceding the Kansas Contests to Davis and Orman.

-------

Meanwhile, in the AK Governor's race, Bill Walker received a small boost when he received the endorsement of Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin (R), due to a disagreement between Palin and Gov. Sean Parnell (R) over oil taxes.

------

Over the course of the final month, the democrats were preparing for the worst. Unless the democrats could work some magic in states like Kentucky, Georgia, and South Dakota, the republican path to a 60-seat filibuster-proof senate majority was not unrealistic at all. The Republicans were set to have a net gain in governorships, although the exact net gain they would get was still very much up for debate. Rick Santorum's approval rating was only about 50%, but republicans had proved they could govern without totally scaring the populace, and the national momentum was without a doubt heading in the republican direction.

Rick Santorum Approval Rating (Nov. 3, 2014)

Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 46%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nov 3, 2014 Polling:

Just as with 2012, I'm not going to show you the exact final polling. Just the ratings. Keep in mind that even if a state is colored the same way as it was on the September map, that does not necessarily mean the numbers have stayed exactly the same - they just haven't changed enough to merit a different color. 50% indy means Toss-Up, 80% indy means "likely independent".

Also, there will be two surprises among the non toss-up races, and some of the toss-up races will go "against the wave". And forgot to mention this in the last post, but if you were wondering, Cutler's (I- ME Gov. Candidate) "you can vote for a major candidate if you want" statement to his supporters still happens in this TL.

Anyways, here's the polling:


Senate:

Governor:

---

Next: Election Night!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Night 2014 - Part 1

Note: Just as with 2012, I'll reveal the final results as races are called, and I'll also be coloring in the results map over the course of the night with percentages. Wherever possible, I'll adhere to the counting bias each state had during RL 2014. Where this is not possible, I'll use the general counting bias the state had from 2008-2012. Please note that some states do not have (significant) counting biases. On the maps, red means democrat win, blue means republican win, green means independent win, yellow means too early/too close to call, and grey is used for both "polls still open" and "no race". For too early to call races, I'll reveal who the exit poll showed with a lead, and I'll give exact, yet not completely accurate, exit poll numbers for too close to call races. And as always, expect to be surprised. Let's begin.


Image Credit: wp.com

Welcome to CNN's 2014 election night coverage. When the first polls close in precisely one hour, we'll begin to project senate and gubernatorial races across the country.



It is 7:00 on the east coast, and with the polls closing in six states, we're ready for our first projections in the senate.

We'll start with two projections in South Carolina. Sen. Lindsey Graham had a very tough battle in the primary, but tonight he wins easily, as does his colleague, Sen. Tim Scott.

South Carolina Regular Senate (Final Results)

Graham (R): 54.7%
Hutto (D): 35.4%
Others: 9.9%

South Carolina Special Senate (Final Results)

Scott (R): 61.6%
Dickerson (D): 34.9%
Others: 3.5%

In the state of Georgia, it is too early to call, but Saxby Chambliss is in the lead. Remember, if all candidates are below 50% at the end of the night in GA, it will go to a runoff in January. This state also has a heavily republican counting bias.

Georgia Senate (1% in)

Chambliss (R): 64%
Barnes (D): 33%
Others: 3%

In Virginia and in Kentucky, it is too close to call. Kentucky has a democratic counting bias, while Virginia has a republican counting bias.

Kentucky Senate (7% in)

Mongiardo (D): 55%
McConnell (R): 44%
Others: 1%

Virginia Senate (1% in)

Bolling (R): 56%
Warner (D): 41%
Others: 3%

Here's the Senate Map. For states with two senate elections, the winning candidate who got the highest % of the vote is used:

(totals include holdovers)

Rep: 36
Dem: 27
Ind: 2
To be decided in December/January: 1 (FL Special)

On the governor's side, we do not have any projections at this time. In South Carolina and Georgia it is too early to call with leads for the republican candidates, and in Vermont it is too close to call. Please note that the early count in SC is extremely democratic. It will become more fair before long though.

South Carolina Governor (1% in):

Sheheen (D): 75%
Haley (R): 23%
Others: 2%

Georgia Governor (1% in):

Deal (R): 65%
Carter (D): 33%
Others: 2%

Vermont Governor (1% in)

Shumlin (D): 52%
Milne (R): 45%
Others: 3%

Here's the gubernatorial map:

(totals include holdovers)

Rep: 8
Dem: 6


Let's now look at the exit polls for the races marked too close to call:



Virginia Senate:

Warner (D): 49%
Bolling (R): 49%

Kentucky Senate:

Mongiardo (D): 50%
McConnell (R): 47%

Vermont Governor:

Shumlin (D): 49%
Milne (R): 46%

----------

It is 7:30 on the east coast, and polls are closing in three more states!



We project the senate race in West Virginia for Shelley Moore Capito!

West Virginia Senate (Final Results)

Capito (R): 64.1%
Tennant (D): 33.8%
Others: 2.1%

In North Carolina, it is too close to call, and it remains too close to call in Kentucky and Virginia. North Carolina has a democratic counting bias.

North Carolina Senate (1% in)

Hagan (D): 56%
Tillis (R): 42%
Others: 2%

Kentucky Senate (22% in)

Mongiardo (D): 54%
McConnell (R): 45%
Others: 1%

Virginia Senate (6% in)

Bolling (R): 57%
Warner (D): 40%
Others: 3%

In Georgia, still too early to call with a Chambliss lead.

Georgia Senate (2% in)

Chambliss (R): 63%
Barnes (D): 34%
Others: 3%

For the gubernatorial races, it is too close to call in Ohio, which has a democratic counting bias, and it is still too close to call in Vermont.

Ohio Governor (1% in)

Cordray (D): 57%
Kasich (R): 40%
Others: 3%

Vermont Governor (5% in)

Shumlin (D): 49%
Milne (R): 46%
Others: 5%

In South Carolina and in Georgia, it is too early to call with leads for the republican candidates according to exit polling.

South Carolina Governor (3% in)

Sheheen (D): 53%
Haley (R): 44%
Others: 3%

Georgia Governor (2% in)

Deal (R): 63%
Carter (D): 35%
Others: 2%

Here are the new Senate and Gubernatorial Maps:

Rep: 37
Dem: 27
Ind: 2
To be decided in December/January: 1

Rep: 8
Dem: 6


Let's now look at the exit polling for the races marked too close to call:




North Carolina Senate:

Tillis (R): 49%
Hagan (D): 49%

Ohio Governor:

Kasich (R): 50%
Cordray (D): 46%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Night 2014 - Part 2

It is 8:00 on the east coast and with polls closed in several key senate and gubernatorial races, we have several more projections to announce!



For the senate, we'll start in Mississippi. Senator Thad Cochran had a tough battle in the primary, but tonight he will win in a landslide.

Mississippi Senate (Final Results)

Cochran (R): 61.4%
Childers (D): 37.7%
Others: 0.9%

In Tennessee, Senator Lamar Alexander will also win in a landslide and be much more relaxed than he was on primary night.

Tennessee Senate (Final Results)

Alexander (R): 63.9%
Adams (D): 34%
Others: 2.1%

There are two senate races tonight in Oklahoma. Sen. T.W. Shannon will win her first full term, and James Lankford will win the special election to replace retiring Sen. Tom Coburn.

Oklahoma Regular Senate (Final Results)

Shannon (R): 68.6%
Silverstein (D): 30.4%
Others: 1%

Oklahoma Special Senate (Final Results)

Lankford (R): 67.9%
Johnson (D): 30.8%
Others: 1.3%

In Delaware, Senator Chris Coons will win another term, as will Senator John Kerry in Massachusetts and Senator Jack Reed in Rhode Island.

Delaware Senate (Final Results)

Coons (D): 55.5%
Wade (R): 42.2%
Others: 2.3%

Massachusetts Senate (Final Results)

Kerry (D): 69.8%
Herr (R): 28.2%
Others: 2%

Rhode Island Senate (Final Results)

Reed (D): 69.9%
Zacarria (R): 28.1%
Others: 2%

In Maine, Susan Collins will win another term, as will Jeff Sessions in Alabama.

Maine Senate (Final Results)

Collins (R): 68%
Bellows (D): 30.2%
Others: 1.8%

Alabama Senate (Final Results)

Sessions (R): 100%

There are a few senate races we cannot project. First, in a bit of a surprise, we are not able to project the senate race in Illinois. Sen. Dick Durbin holds a lead in our exit poll, but it is not big enough to call the race in his favor. Too early to call in the senate race in Illinois. Do note that the vote count will be very republican-leaning here until the cook county vote comes in.

Illinois Senate (1% in)

Oberweis (R): 53%
Durbin (D): 43%
Others: 4%

In New Jersey and New Hampshire, it is too close to call. New Hampshire has a democratic counting bias.

New Jersey Senate (1% in)

LoBiondo (R): 50%
Booker (D): 49%
Others: 1%

New Hampshire Senate (1% in)

Shaheen (D): 60%
Innis (R): 37%
Others: 3%

From earlier poll closings, it is still too early to call with a Chambliss lead in Georgia, and it is still too close to call in Kentucky, Virginia, and North Carolina.

Georgia Senate (9% in)

Chambliss (R): 59%
Barnes (D): 38%
Others: 3%

Kentucky Senate (43% in)

Mongiardo (D): 53%
McConnell (R): 46%
Others: 1%

Virginia Senate (20% in)

Bolling (R): 54%
Warner (D): 43%
Others: 3%

North Carolina Senate (17% in)

Hagan (D): 54%
Tillis (R): 44%
Others: 2%

Here's the new senate map:

Rep: 43
Dem: 30
Ind: 2
To be decided in December/January: 1

Among the Gubernatorial races, we finally have some projections to make! We'll start in Alabama, where Robert Bentley will win another term.

Alabama Governor (Final Results)

Bentley (R): 64.9%
Griffith (D): 33.4%
Others: 1.7%

The incumbent governors in Tennessee and Oklahoma will also win another term.

Tennessee Governor (Final Results)

Haslam (R): 65.7%
McKamey (D): 32.9%
Others: 1.4%

Oklahoma Governor (Final Results)

Fallin (R): 57.2%
Dorman (D): 40.4%
Others: 2.4%

In Pennsylvania, Governor Tom Corbett will go down to defeat, as will Governor Rick Scott in Florida. However, in South Carolina we can now project that Nikki Haley will win another term.

Pennsylvania Governor (Final Results)

Wolf (D): 57.4%
Corbett (R): 42.6%

South Carolina Governor (7% in)

Haley (R): 51%
Sheheen (D): 45%
Others: 4%

South Carolina Governor (Final Results)

Haley (R): 53.7%
Sheheen (D): 43.2%
Others: 3.1%

Florida Governor (60% in):

Nelson (D): 53%
Scott (R): 45%
Others: 2%

Florida Governor (Final Results):

Nelson (D): 52.1%
Scott (R): 46.1%
Others: 1.8%

There are several contests we cannot project. In Massachusetts, Scott Brown has the lead, but it is too early to call the race over the democrat Martha Coakley.

Massachusetts Governor (1% in):

Brown (R): 55%
Coakley (D): 43%
Others: 2%

In the states of IL, MD, CT, RI, NH, and ME, it is too close to call. Maryland has a democratic counting bias.

Illinois Governor (1% in):

Dillard (R): 59%
Quinn (D): 38%
Others: 3%

Maryland Governor (1% in):

Brown (D): 59%
Hogan (R): 40%
Others: 1%

Connecticut Governor (1% in):

Shays (R): 50%
Malloy (D): 49%
Others: 1%

Rhode Island Governor (1% in):

Fung (R): 39%
Raimondo (D): 38%
Healey (I): 20%
Others: 3%

New Hampshire Governor (1% in):

Hassan (D): 61%
Bradley (R): 37%
Others: 2%

Maine Governor (1% in)

Michaud (D): 46%
Lepage (R): 46%
Cutler (I): 6%
Others: 2%

From earlier hours, it is still too close to call in VT and OH, and it is still too early to call with a Deal lead in GA.

Vermont Governor (17% in):

Shumlin (D): 50%
Milne (R): 46%
Others: 4%

Ohio Governor (7% in):

Cordray (D): 57%
Kasich (R): 40%
Others: 3%

Georgia Governor (9% in):

Deal (R): 59%
Carter (D): 38%
Others: 3%

Here's the new gubernatorial map:

Rep: 12
Dem: 8

Let's now look at the exit polling for the races marked too close to call:



New Hampshire Senate:

Innis (R): 49%
Shaheen (D): 48%

New Jersey Senate:

Booker (D): 49%
LoBiondo (R): 49%

Illinois Governor:

Dillard (R): 51%
Quinn (D): 46%

Maryland Governor:

Hogan (R): 50%
Brown (D): 47%

Connecticut Governor:

Malloy (D): 49%
Shays (R): 49%

Rhode Island Governor:

Raimondo (D): 39%
Fung (R): 37%
Healey (I): 19%

New Hampshire Governor:

Bradley (R): 48%
Hassan (D): 48%

Maine Governor:

Michaud (D): 46%
LePage (R): 45%
Cutler (I): 7%

-------------

And we now have two more calls. We can project that Vincent Gray will win another term as D.C. Mayor, and we can also project that the republicans will keep control of the U.S. House of Representatives!

D.C. Mayor (Final Results):

Gray (D): 64.7%
Various Independents: 35.3%

House Majority (Final Results):

Republicans: 247 (+9)
Democrats: 188 (-9)


(a full list of house pickups for both parties will be available at the end of election night coverage)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Night 2014 - Part 2 Continued

It is 8:30 P.M. on the east coast, and polls are closing in Arkansas!



And we can project both the Arkansas Senate Race and the Arkansas Governor's Race for the Republicans!

Arkansas Senate (Final Results):

Cotton (R): 56.2%
Pryor (D): 40%
Others: 3.8%

Arkansas Governor (Final Results):

Hutchinson (R): 55.4%
Ross (D): 41%
Others: 3.6%

Here are the new senate and gubernatorial maps:

Rep: 44
Dem: 30
Ind: 2
To be Decided in December/January: 1

Rep: 13
Dem: 8

----------------
8:51



We have a projection to make that will leave the republicans begging for mercy! Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader who hoped to become the Majority Leader tonight, will be defeated by his democratic challenger, Fmr. Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo!

Kentucky Senate (79% in):

Mongiardo (D): 51%
McConnell (R): 47%
Others: 2%

Kentucky Senate (Final Results):

Mongiardo (D): 49.8%
McConnell (R): 48.8%
Others: 1.4%

Rep: 44
Dem: 31
Ind: 2
To be decided in December/January: 1

Mitch McConnell Defeated!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Night 2014 - Part 3

It is 9:00 on the east coast, and we have several more poll closings, including key senate races in Louisiana, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, South Dakota, Wyoming, Minnesota, and Michigan!



To start, we can project, as expected, that the senate race in Louisiana will go to a runoff in December between Sen. Mary Landrieu and Rep. Bill Cassidy, due to no candidate receiving 50% of the vote:

Louisiana Senate Jungle (Final Results):

Landrieu (D): 42.4%
Cassidy (R): 40.9%
Maness (R): 14%
Others: 2.7%

We can also project, as the RNC acknowledged weeks ago, that the senate race in Kansas will go for the Independent Greg Orman over the Republican Senator Pat Roberts. Greg Orman has said that he will caucus with the republican party.

Kansas Senate (Final Results)

Orman (I): 55.4%
Roberts (R): 43.1%
Others: 1.5%

Also, as expected, the republicans will be victorious in Texas and Nebraska!

Texas Senate (Final Results)

Cornyn (R): 56.9%
Alameel (D): 40.4%
Others: 2.7%

Nebraska Senate (Final Results)

Sasse (R): 58.5%
Domina (D): 40.3%
Others: 1.2%

The other senate races where the polls just closed are all too close to call. No projection in any of these races. Colorado and Michigan have republican counting biases, Minnesota has a democratic counting bias. :

New Mexico Senate (1% in):

Martinez (R): 51%
Udall (D): 47%
Others: 2%

Colorado Senate (1% in):

Gardner (R): 57%
Udall (D): 38%
Others: 5%

South Dakota Senate (1% in)

Rhoden (R): 36%
Pressler (I): 35%
Weiland (D): 26%
Others: 3%

Wyoming Senate (1% in):

Enzi (R): 49%
Frudenthal (D): 49%
Others: 2%

Minnesota Senate (1% in):

Franken (D): 57%
Paulsen (R): 41%
Others: 2%

Michigan Senate (11% in)

Rogers (R): 53%
Peters (D): 45%
Others: 2%

From earlier poll closings, still too close to call in North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and New Jersey and still too early to call with a Chambliss lead in Georgia. It is also still too early to call in Illinois as we continue to wait for Cook County numbers.

North Carolina Senate (47% in):

Hagan (D): 52%
Tillis (R): 46%
Others: 2%

Virginia Senate (54% in):

Bolling (R): 53%
Warner (D): 44%
Others: 3%

New Hampshire Senate (26% in):

Shaheen (D): 49%
Innis (R): 48%
Others: 3%

New Jersey Senate (24% in):

LoBiondo (R): 50%
Booker (D): 49%
Others: 1%

Georgia Senate (36% in):

Chambliss (R): 59%
Barnes (D): 38%
Others: 3%

Illinois Senate (17% in):

Oberweis (R): 55%
Durbin (D): 41%
Others: 4%

Here's the new senate map (90% Yellow = Runoff Required) :

Rep: 46
Dem: 31
Ind: 3
To be decided in December/January: 2

Let's now look at the gubernatorial races. We'll start with Texas, where Republican Greg Abbott, who defeated Incumbent Rick Perry in the Republican Primary, has won the General in a landslide!

Texas Governor (Final Results):

Abbott (R): 57.9%
Davis (D): 38.7%
Others: 3.3%

The Republicans will also enjoy victories in Arizona, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming!

Arizona Governor (Final Results):

Ducey (R): 55.4%
Duval (D): 43%
Others: 1.6%

Nebraska Governor (Final Results):

Ricketts (R): 57.5%
Hassebrook (D): 41.3%
Others: 1.2%

South Dakota Governor (Final Results):

Daugaard (R): 65%
Wismer (D): 34%
Others: 1%

Wyoming Governor (Final Results):

Mead (R): 63.7%
Gosar (D): 33.1%
Others: 3.2%

Just one victory for the democrats at this point. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo will win another term, to the disappointment of true leftists worldwide.

New York Governor (Final Results):

Cuomo (D): 53.4%
Astorino (R): 40.3%
Others: 6.3%

Let's look at the races we cannot project. In the state of Kansas, it is too early to call with a Davis lead, and it is too early to call with a Wilson lead in New Mexico. Kansas has a democratic counting bias.

Kansas Governor (1% in):

Davis (D): 58%
Brownback (R): 39%
Others: 3%

New Mexico Governor (1% in):

Wilson (R): 53%
King (D): 46%
Others: 1%

In Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, it is too close to call. Wisconsin has a republican counting bias.

Colorado Governor (1% in):

Gessler (R): 58%
Hickenlooper (D): 37%
Others: 5%

Minnesota Governor (1% in):

Dayton (D): 55%
Coleman (R): 43%

Wisconsin Governor (1% in):

Walker (R): 60%
Burke (D): 38%
Others: 2%

Michigan Governor (11% in):

Snyder (R): 55%
Schauer (D): 41%
Others: 4%

From earlier poll closings, still too early to call with a Deal lead in Georgia:

Georgia Governor (36% in):

Deal (R): 59%
Carter (D): 38%
Others: 3%

And the following races are still too close to call:

Vermont Governor (40% in):

Shumlin (D): 50%
Milne (R): 47%
Others: 3%

Ohio Governor (25% in):

Cordray (D): 51%
Kasich (R): 46%
Others: 3%

Illinois Governor (17% in):

Dillard (R): 61%
Quinn (D): 36%
Others: 3%

Maryland Governor (25% in):

Brown (D): 52%
Hogan (R): 47%
Others: 1%

Connecticut Governor (25% in):

Shays (R): 50%
Malloy (D): 48%
Others: 2%

Rhode Island Governor (37% in):

Raimondo (D): 39%
Fung (R): 38%
Healey (I): 20%
Others: 3%

New Hampshire Governor (26% in):

Hassan (D): 50%
Bradley (R): 48%
Others: 2%

Maine Governor (23% in):

Michaud (D): 47%
LePage (R): 46%
Cutler (I): 6%
Others: 1%

And one more call to make. Scott Brown, just 2 years after being defeated for Senate reelection, will return to political office as the governor of Massachusetts!

Massachusetts Governor (27% in):

Brown (R): 54%
Coakley (D): 44%
Others: 2%

Massachusetts Governor (Final Results):

Brown (R): 52.7%
Coakley (D): 45.4%
Others: 1.9%


Here's the new gubernatorial map:

Rep: 19
Dem: 9

Let's look at the exit polls for the races marked too close to call:



New Mexico Senate:

Martinez (R): 51%
Udall (D): 47%

Colorado Senate:

Gardner (R): 50%
Udall (D): 46%

Wyoming Senate:

Frudenthal (D): 49%
Enzi (R): 49%

South Dakota Senate:

Rhoden (R): 35%
Pressler (I): 35%
Weiland (D): 25%

Minnesota Senate:

Franken (D): 50%
Paulsen (R): 49%

Michigan Senate:

Peters (D): 50%
Rogers (R): 48%

Colorado Governor:

Gessler (R): 50%
Hickenlooper (D): 46%

Minnesota Governor:

Dayton (D): 49%
Coleman (R): 49%

Wisconsin Governor:

Walker (R): 51%
Burke (D): 48%

Michigan Governor:

Snyder (R): 49%
Schauer (D): 47%



Martha Coakley = PERENNIAL LOSER!!!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Night 2014 - Part 3 Continued

9:24



After a large dump of votes from Cook County, we can project the Illinois Senate Race for the Democrats!

Illinois Senate (35% in):

Durbin (D): 60%
Oberweis (R): 36%
Others: 4%

Illinois Senate (Final Results):

Durbin (D): 53.5%
Oberweis (R): 42.9%
Others: 3.6%

Rep: 46
Dem: 32
Ind: 3
To be decided in December/January: 2

---------------

9:50



Two more gubernatorial projections to announce. Ohio Governor John Kasich will be reelected, but Kansas Governor Sam Brownback will be defeated!

Ohio Governor (45% in):

Kasich (R): 50%
Cordray (D): 47%
Others: 3%

Ohio Governor (Final Results):

Kasich (R): 51.4%
Cordray (D): 45.2%
Others: 3.5%

Kansas Governor (20% in):

Davis (D): 56%
Brownback (R): 41%
Others: 3%

Kansas Governor (Final Results):

Davis (D): 53%
Brownback (R): 43.4%
Others: 3.6%

Rep: 20
Dem: 10

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Night 2014 - Part 4

It is 10:00 on the east coast, and polls are closing in Iowa, Montana, Utah, and Nevada!



In the senate race in Iowa, it is too early to call. Rep. Tom Latham holds the lead in our exit poll, but it is not big enough to call the race for him right away. The state's democratic counting bias means that Rep. Bruce Braley is leading in the actual vote count, at least for now.

Iowa Senate (1% in):

Braley (D): 64%
Latham (R): 34%
Others: 2%

The Republicans will win the senate races in Montana and New Hampshire!

Montana Senate (Final Results):

Daines (R): 58%
Curtis (D): 39%
Others: 3%

New Hampshire Senate (50% in):

Innis (R): 51%
Shaheen (D): 46%
Others: 3%

New Hampshire Senate (Final Results):

Innis (R): 50.4%
Shaheen (D): 47.1%
Others: 2.5%


It is still too early to call in Georgia, and it is still too close to call in a collection of other races:

Georgia Senate (55% in):

Chambliss (R): 58%
Barnes (D): 40%
Others: 2%

Virginia Senate (70% in):

Bolling (R): 52%
Warner (D): 45%
Others: 3%

North Carolina Senate (67% in):

Hagan (D): 51%
Tillis (R): 48%
Others: 1%

New Jersey Senate (49% in):

Booker (D): 50%
LoBiondo (R): 49%
Others: 1%

New Mexico Senate (18% in):

Martinez (R): 52%
Udall (D): 46%
Others: 2%

Colorado Senate (50% in):

Gardner (R): 53%
Udall (D): 43%
Others: 4%

Wyoming Senate (12% in):

Enzi (R): 49%
Frudenthal (D): 49%
Others: 2%

South Dakota Senate (37% in):

Pressler (I): 35%
Rhoden (R): 35%
Weiland (D): 27%
Others: 3%

Minnesota Senate (22% in):

Franken (D): 53%
Paulsen (R): 45%
Others: 2%

Michigan Senate (29% in):

Rogers (R): 52%
Peters (D): 46%
Others: 2%

Here's the new senate map. Due to Orman's pledge to caucus with the republicans and Mitch Daniels's presence as VP, Republicans need just one more victory to capture the senate majority!

Rep: 48
Dem: 32
Ind: 3
To be Decided in December/January: 2

Among the gubernatorial races, the republicans will win in both Iowa and Nevada!

Iowa Governor (Final Results):

Branstad (R): 60.4%
Hatch (D): 36.2%
Others: 3.4%

Nevada Governor (Final Results):

Sandoval (R): 70%
Goodman (D): 25%
Others: 5%

The Republicans will also win in New Mexico!

New Mexico Governor (18% in):

Wilson (R): 55%
King (D): 44%
Others: 1%

New Mexico Governor (Final Results):

Wilson (R): 53.7%
King (D): 45.5%
Others: 0.8%

In Georgia, still too early to call, and it is still too close to call in a collection of other races.

Georgia Governor (55% in):

Deal (R): 57%
Carter (D): 40%
Others: 3%

Illinois Governor (51% in):

Quinn (D): 50%
Dillard (R): 47%
Others: 3%

Maryland Governor (44% in):

Brown (D): 50%
Hogan (R): 48%
Others: 2%

Connecticut Governor (41% in):

Shays (R): 50%
Malloy (D): 49%
Others: 1%

Rhode Island Governor (59% in):

Raimondo (D): 40%
Fung (R): 37%
Healey (I): 20%
Others: 3%

Vermont Governor (59% in):

Shumlin (D): 49%
Milne (R): 48%
Others: 3%

New Hampshire Governor (50% in):

Bradley (R): 51%
Hassan (D): 47%
Others: 2%

Maine Governor (43% in):

Michaud (D): 47%
LePage (R): 46%
Cutler (I): 6%
Others: 1%

Minnesota Governor (22% in):

Dayton (D): 51%
Coleman (R): 47%
Others: 2%

Wisconsin Governor (19% in):

Walker (R): 59%
Burke (D): 39%
Others: 2%

Michigan Governor (29% in):

Snyder (R): 54%
Schauer (D): 42%
Others: 4%

Here's the new gubernatorial map:

Rep: 23
Dem: 10

*As no races were marked too close to call, no exit poll release is necessary.*

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Night 2014 - Part 4 Continued

10:19



We can project that the republicans will win the Senate and Gubernatorial races in Colorado!

Colorado Senate (64% in):

Gardner (R): 52%
Udall (D): 44%
Others: 4%

Colorado Senate (Final Results):

Gardner (R): 49.3%
Udall (D): 46.1%
Others: 4.6%

Colorado Governor (64% in):

Gessler (R): 52%
Hickenlooper (D): 43%
Others: 5%

Colorado Governor (Final Results):

Gessler (R): 49.5%
Hickenlooper (D): 45.9%
Others: 4.6%

With this victory in Colorado, the Republicans will have the majority in the United States Senate!

Rep: 49
Dem: 32
Ind: 3
To be decided in December/January: 2

Rep: 24
Dem: 10

-----------------------

10:27



Two more gubernatorial races to project. The Republicans will win in New Hampshire, but the Democrats will win in Rhode Island!

New Hampshire Governor (62% in):

Bradley (R): 52%
Hassan (D): 46%
Others: 2%

New Hampshire Governor (Final Results):

Bradley (R): 49.9%
Hassan (D): 48.2%
Others: 1.9%

Rhode Island Governor (75% in):

Raimondo (D): 40%
Fung (R): 37%
Healey (I): 20%
Others: 3%

Rhode Island Governor (Final Results):

Raimondo (D): 39.8%
Fung (R): 36.8%
Healey (I): 20.4%
Others: 3%

Rep: 25
Dem: 11

-----------------

10:35



The Republicans will win the Senate and Gubernatorial Races in Georgia!

Georgia Senate (69% in):

Chambliss (R): 57%
Barnes (D): 40%
Others: 3%

Georgia Senate (Final Results):

Chambliss (R): 52.4%
Barnes (D): 44.7%
Others: 2.9

Georgia Governor (69% in):

Deal (R): 57%
Carter (D): 40%
Others: 3%

Georgia Governor (Final Results):

Deal (R): 52.1%
Carter (D): 45.1%
Others: 2.8%

Rep: 50
Dem: 32
Ind: 3
To be decided in December/January: 2

With this victory in Georgia, Republicans will have a majority among the nation's statehouses!

Rep: 26
Dem: 11

---------------------
10:46



Senator Mark Warner will be defeated, but Senator Kay Hagan will survive!

North Carolina Senate (82% in):

Hagan (D): 50%
Tillis (R): 48%
Others: 2%

North Carolina Senate (Final Results):

Hagan (D): 49.7%
Tillis (R): 48.6%
Others: 1.7%

Virginia Senate (83% in):

Bolling (R): 51%
Warner (D): 46%
Others: 3%

Virginia Senate (Final Results):

Bolling (R): 49.4%
Warner (D): 48.1%
Others: 2.5%

We can also project that Tom Latham will win in Iowa!

Iowa Senate (44% in):

Latham (R): 50%
Braley (D): 48%
Others: 2%

Iowa Senate (Final Results):

Latham (R): 54%
Braley (D): 43.7%
Others: 2.3%

Rep: 52
Dem: 33
Ind: 3
To be decided in December/January: 2

-----------------
10:51



Republicans continue to dominate among governorships, as they claim victories in Wisconsin and Illinois!

Wisconsin Governor (36% in):
Walker (R): 55%
Burke (D): 44%
Others: 1%

Wisconsin Governor (Final Results):

Walker (R): 52.4%
Burke (D): 47%
Others: 0.6%

Illinois Governor (69% in):

Dillard (R): 50%
Quinn (D): 47%
Others: 3%

Illinois Governor (Final Results):

Dillard (R): 52.4%
Quinn (D): 44.9%
Others: 2.7%

Rep: 28
Dem: 11

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Night 2014 - Part 5

It is 11:00 on the east coast, and we have several more poll closings, including the hotly contested senate and gubernatorial races in Oregon!



As expected, too close to call in the Oregon Senate Race. Jeff Merkley and Gordon Smith locked up in a nailbiter.

Oregon Senate (1% in):

Merkley (D): 49%
Smith (R): 49%
Others: 2%

We can project the Idaho Senate Race and the New Mexico Senate Race for the Republicans!

Idaho Senate (Final Results):

Risch (R): 57.3%
Mitchell (D): 39.6%
Others: 3.1%

New Mexico Senate (39% in):

Martinez (R): 53%
Udall (D): 45%
Others: 2%

New Mexico Senate (Final Results):

Martinez (R): 52%
Udall (D): 46%
Others: 2%

The Democrats will be victorious in Hawaii!

Hawaii Senate (Final Results):
Schatz (D): 67.9%
Cavasso (R): 28.3%
Others: 3.8%

And the following races are still too close to call:

Wyoming Senate (40% in):

Frudenthal (D): 49%
Enzi (R): 49%

South Dakota Senate (66% in):

Pressler (I): 36%
Rhoden (R): 35%
Weiland (D): 26%
Others: 3%

Minnesota Senate (40% in):

Franken (D): 52%
Paulsen (R): 46%
Others: 2%

Michigan Senate (52% in):

Rogers (R): 50%
Peters (D): 48%
Others: 2%

New Jersey Senate (68% in):

Booker (D): 50%
LoBiondo (R): 49%

Here's the new senate map:

Rep: 54
Dem: 34
Ind: 3
To be Decided in December/January: 2

On the Gubernatorial side, the republicans will win in Idaho and Michigan, and the Democrats will win in Hawaii and California!

Idaho Governor (Final Results):

Otter (R): 52.9%
Baulkoff (D): 38.4%
Others: 8.7%

Hawaii Governor (Final Results):

Ige (D): 50.4%
Aiona (R): 36.9%
Hannemann (I): 11.7%
Others: 1%

California Governor (Final Results):

Brown (D): 58.5%
Kashkari (R): 38.7%
Others: 2.8%

Michigan Governor (52% in):

Snyder (R): 53%
Schauer (D): 43%
Others: 4%

Michigan Governor (Final Results):

Snyder (R): 50%
Schauer (D): 45.9%
Others: 4.1%

In Oregon, it is too close to call, just as it is in a collection of other races:

Oregon Governor (1% in):

Walden (R): 49%
Kitzhaber (D): 49%
Others: 2%

Minnesota Governor (40% in):

Dayton (D): 50%
Coleman (R): 48%
Others: 2%

Maryland Governor (61% in):

Hogan (R): 50%
Brown (D): 48%
Others: 2%

Connecticut Governor (61% in):

Shays (R): 51%
Malloy (D): 48%
Others: 1%

Vermont Governor (77% in):

Shumlin (D): 50%
Milne (R): 47%
Others: 3%

Maine Governor (58% in):

Michaud (D): 47%
Lepage (R): 45%
Cutler (I): 7%
Others: 1%

With the Vermont Race, viewers should note that the legislature gets to choose the governor if no one gets 50%. Shumlin is just barely reaching that threshold at this point, but he has been fluctuating between just above it and just below it all night, and it is very unclear if he will be at 50% or not at the end of the night.

Let's now look at the gubernatorial map:

Rep: 30
Dem: 13


We now have some exit polling to show you:




Oregon Senate:

Merkley (D): 49%
Smith (R): 49%

Oregon Governor:

Kitzhaber (D): 49%
Walden (R): 49%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Night 2014 - Part 5 Continued

11:25:



Cory Booker will hold on in New Jersey!

New Jersey Senate (81% in):

Booker (D): 51%
LoBiondo (R): 48%
Others: 1%

New Jersey Senate (Final Results):

Booker (D): 51.2%
LoBiondo (R): 47.8%
Others: 1%

Rep: 54
Dem: 35
Ind: 3
To be Decided in December/January: 2
--------------
11:41



The Democrats will win the Senate Race in Michigan, as the Republicans win the Maryland Governorship!

Michigan Senate (70% in):

Peters (D): 49%
Rogers (R): 49%
Others: 2%

Michigan Senate (Final Results):

Peters (D): 50.4%
Rogers (R): 47.4%
Others: 2.2%

Maryland Governor (75% in):

Hogan (R): 51%
Brown (D): 47%
Others: 2%

Maryland Governor (Final Results):

Hogan (R): 51.6%
Brown (D): 46.9%
Others: 1.5%

Rep: 54
Dem: 36
Ind: 3
To be Decided in December/January: 2

Rep: 31
Dem: 13
-----------------

11:49



Republicans will win the Governorships of Connecticut and Minnesota!

Connecticut Governor (80% in):

Shays (R): 51%
Malloy (D): 48%
Others: 1%

Connecticut Governor (Final Results):

Shays (R): 51.3%
Malloy (D): 47.4%
Others: 1.3%

Minnesota Governor (58% in):

Coleman (R): 49%
Dayton (D): 48%
Others: 3%

Minnesota Governor (Final Results):

Coleman (R): 49.8%
Dayton (D): 47.9%
Others: 2.3%

Rep: 33
Dem: 13
---------------
12:11



The Democrats will win in the Minnesota Senate Race, and Independent Larry Pressler will win in South Dakota! Pressler has not yet stated which party he will caucus with.

Minnesota Senate (67% in):

Franken (D): 51%
Paulsen (R): 47%
Others: 2%

Minnesota Senate (Final Results):

Franken (D): 50.2%
Paulsen (R): 47.6%
Others: 2.2%

South Dakota Senate (82% in):

Pressler (I): 36%
Rhoden (R): 34%
Weiland (D): 27%
Others: 3%

South Dakota Senate (Final Results):

Pressler (I): 35.7%
Rhoden (R): 34.8%
Weiland (D): 26.4%
Others: 3.1%

Rep: 54
Dem: 37
Ind: 4
To be Decided in December/January: 2
---------

12:43



Governor Paul LePage has been defeated!

Maine Governor (79% in):

Michaud (D): 47%
LePage (R): 45%
Cutler (I): 7%
Others: 1%

Maine Governor (Final Results):

Michaud (D): 46.7%
LePage (R): 45.5%
Cutler (I): 6.4%
Others: 1.4%

Rep: 33
Dem: 14

[Free Bird]

Liking what I was seeing, then you just slap me in the face

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Liking what I was seeing, then you just slap me in the face

which result?

[Free Bird]

Liking what I was seeing, then you just slap me in the face

which result?

Have this ginormous wave (odd for a midterm  of a Republican president), then LePage just sorta bloops off the radar, even with Collins crushing it

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Liking what I was seeing, then you just slap me in the face

which result?

Have this ginormous wave (odd for a midterm  of a Republican president), then LePage just sorta bloops off the radar, even with Collins crushing it

My general idea was to create a great republican result based mostly on recruiting breakthroughs, not based mostly on national anti-democrat sentiment like RL 2014. Because of this, it is not a clean cut wave.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Night 2014 - Final Part

It is 1:00 AM on the east coast, and polls are closing in Alaska!



Both the Alaska Senate Race and the Alaska Gubernatorial Race are too close to call.

Alaska Senate (1% in):

Begich (D): 48%
Treadwell (R): 48%

Alaska Governor (1% in):

Walker (I): 49%
Parnell (R): 48%
Others: 3%

However, in a surprise feat, we can project that the Democrats will win the Wyoming Senate Race!

Wyoming Senate (80% in):

Frudenthal (D): 50%
Enzi (R): 48%
Others: 2%

Wyoming Senate (100% in):

Frudenthal (D): 50.4%
Enzi (R): 48.3%
Others: 1.3%

The following races are still too close to call:

Oregon Senate (59% in):

Smith (R): 49%
Merkley (D): 49%
Others: 2%

Oregon Governor (59% in):

Walden (R): 49%
Kitzhaber (D): 49%
Others: 2%

Vermont Governor (91% in):

Shumlin (D): 50%
Milne (R): 47%
Others: 3%

Here are the new senate and gubernatorial maps:

Rep: 54
Dem: 38
Ind: 4
To be Decided in December/January: 2

Rep: 33
Dem: 14


One final look at exit polling:



Alaska Senate:

Begich (D): 49%
Sullivan (R): 47%

Alaska Governor:

Walker (I): 50%
Parnell (R): 48%

--------------------------------------------------------

1:52



Republicans will win the Oregon Governor's Race!

Oregon Governor (81% in):

Walden (R): 50%
Kitzhaber (D): 48%
Others: 2%

Oregon Governor (Final Results):

Walden (R): 50%
Kitzhaber (D): 48%
Others: 2%

Rep: 34
Dem: 14

---------------------
2:11



Gordon Smith will return to the Senate!

Oregon Senate (87% in):

Smith (R): 50%
Merkley (D): 48%
Others: 2%

Oregon Senate (Final Results):

Smith (R): 49.6%
Merkley (D): 48.5%
Others: 1.9%

Rep: 55
Dem: 38
Ind: 4
To be Decided in December/January: 2

End of Election Night Coverage

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2014 Elections - Final Results

Governor:

Rep: 34
Dem: 15
Ind: 1

Final Calls

Alaska Governor (Final Results)

Walker (I): 50%
Parnell (R): 47.1%
Others: 2.9%

Vermont Governor (Final Results)

Shumlin (D): 50.3%
Milne (R): 46.7%
Others: 3%

Despite calls from some in the republican party to call for a recount to ensure that Shumlin had indeed crossed the threshold to be elected without legislature approval, Milne conceded the race on Thursday, November 6, stating that he had given the race all he could, had showed Shumlin that he (Shumlin) was not adored by the people of VT, and that it was important for Vermont to move forward in a united fashion. The speech was not spoken in a particularly sad tone, making some wonder if Milne would one day make another attempt to gain a political office....

Senate:

Rep Caucus: 57
Dem Caucus: 42
To be Decided in January: 1

Alaska Senate (Final Results):

Begich (D): 48.6%
Treadwell (R): 47.7%
Others: 3.7%

In the days following the election, Sanders, King, and Pressler would all confirm/announce plans to caucus with the democrats. Meanwhile, the DSC, near-broke from the election, decided against investing in the LA Runoff, choosing instead to stockpile cash for the January FL Special Senate Race. As a result, Cassidy crushed Landrieu in the Dec. 6 Runoff.

Louisiana Senate Runoff (Final Results):

Cassidy (R): 56.7%
Landrieu (D): 43.3%


House Pickups:

D to R:

MN-06
IA-01
NY-21
FL-26
GA-12
IL-12
NV-04
NH-01
NY-01
NY-24
WV-03
CA-07
MN-08
MA-09

R to D:

MA-06
NE-02
FL-02
FL-18
CA-31

Final Totals

Rep: 247 (+9)
Dem: 188 (-9)


------------------------


The Lame Duck session proved to be unproductive. With no urgent deadlines to meet, nothing substantial got done. Harry Reid was in a full "wait until your new members are sworn in to get republican ideas passed" mode, and the Republican Party was entrenched in leadership battles as it chose a new house speaker, a new house majority leader, and a new senate majority leader.

On December 7th, the house would permantely end the "select committee on Benghazi". Outgoing house speaker John Boehner said "It is regretting that we are not able to give out any major guilty verdicts. Instead we can only issue a collection of small-level indictments." Several low-level, nationally unknown former Obama administration officials paid large fines and served short jail sentences for inept work described as "making poor security decisions and refusing to check emails.", but neither Obama nor Hillary nor any former cabinet member was charged with anything. Hillary puts out a statement in which she thanks the HoR for doing an honest investigation. Obama endorses the statement. Santorum refuses to comment on the situation.

As the beginning of republican control of the senate came closer, Soon-To-Be Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid spent many sleepless nights. He knew that the moment the senate became republican, Santorum would try to use his increased power to do a full and complete repeal of ObamaCare. All Santorum would need would be 3 democratic votes, or 2 if the democrats lost the FL Special, and Insurance Companies would no longer be required to cover preexisting conditions, cover children until Age 26, spend 80% of funds on health care, etc., and the Employer Mandate, which was still scheduled to go into effect on January 1, 2015, would also come to a quick end. Reid hoped that the democrats would hold firm......

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The New Congress Begins

On December 23rd, Rep. Michael Grimm (R, NY-11) plead guilty to one count of felony tax evasion. He quickly resigned his seat, and a special election to replace him will be held on April 23rd, 2015.

On December 26th, the house republican leadership announced it had agreed that Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R, CA-23) would be the party's nominee for speaker of the house. Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R, VA-06) will move up from judiciary committee chairman to House Majority Leader. Rep. Steve Scalise (R, LA-01), was initially announced as the next majority whip, but this appointment was promptly revoked after allegations of Scalise speaking to a white supremacist group in 2002 came out on December 28th. As Scalise had not been scheduled to assume the office until Jan. 6, the leadership could simply take his ascension off the schedule, and put someone else's on to the schedule. On December 30th, in a surprise choice, it was announced that Rep. Candice Miller (R, MI-10) who had served as Chairwoman of the house administration committee, would be the next Majority Whip

McCarthy would meet little non-democratic opposition in the house floor, and would win the house speaker floor vote 239-164 over Rep. Nancy Pelosi.

Despite the allegations, Steve Scalise says he will not resign his seat in congress.

House Composition (January 6th, 2015):

Rep: 246
Dem: 188
Vacancies: 1

-------------------------------------------

On December 19th, it was announced that Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) would be the next Senate Majority Leader, with South Dakota Sen. John Thune (R) serving as Majority Whip.

*Democratic Leadership for both houses of congress is the same as real life*

On January 6th, the democrats won the special senate election in Florida. The elected member was sworn in on January 15th after completion of certification procedures, making senate composition 57 Republicans - 43 Democrats.

Florida Senate Special

Fmr. Rep. Robert Wexler (D): 50.4%
Fmr. Rep. & Fmr. Att. Gen. Bill McCollum (R): 48.4%
Others: 1.2%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

January 26th, 2015 - Santorum Gives SOTU Address

In the nationally televised address, Santorum says he heard the message sent in November by the voters loud and clear, and pledges, among other things, to simplify the tax code, repeal and replace ObamaCare and Dodd-Frank by the end of the year, get roe vs. wade overturned by the end of his first term, and send massive amounts of troops to Iran. In the democratic response by Maine Gov. Mike Michaud, it is asserted that very few of the newly elected republican senators were fully embraced by the tea party movement. Michaud praises Santorum's bipartisan accomplishments over the last several years, including comprehensive immigration reform and coporate tax reform, while begging him to not become obstructionist during the remainder of his first term.

Rick Santorum Approval Rating (January 27, 2015):

Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 47%

February 12, 2015 - ObamaCare Repeal fails to pass Senate

Despite passing the house a week earlier with support of all 246 republicans and 14 democrats, the democrats and a small number of republicans successfully filibuster a bill to repeal ObamaCare. The bill falls 3 votes short of the needed 60 vote threshold, with Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin voting for it, but Gordon Smith and Susan Collins vote against it, saying they need to see the replacement before they will support repeal.

Santorum is downright angry, saying that any replacement would be better than ObamaCare and that even no replacement at all would be better than ObamaCare. He presses Cornyn to use reconcillation to get around the filibuster, but Cornyn says no, saying that that is not the right way to get things passed. Santorum, saying that then americans should endure the pain, lifts the executive order stopping open enrollment, and the exchanges reopen for a second session of open enrollment from February 17-April 20. Cornyn merely sighs and begins the process of crafting a replacement bill.

February 20, 2015 - Mike Lee announces Conservative Challenge to Rick Santorum

In a speech in Utah, Sen. Mike Lee said, "Senator Santorum campaigned as a conservative in 2012, but he's governed as a moderate who foolishly works with democrats, and fails to stand on his principles. Now, he's saying that americans deserve to feel the pain of ObamaCare, the worst law to ever pass the congress. I can't stand him anymore, and so on this day, I declare that I will not run for reelection to the senate, and instead will challenge Mr. Santorum in the republican presidential primaries in 2016! As President, I'll never make a single concession to democrats, and I'll be the true conservative the country really wants!"

February 22, 2015 - Barack Obama rules out third presidential run

"What happened in 2012 is done" said Obama in a speech in Illinois. "The american people had the chance to reelect me, and they chose not to, so it follows that the movement to oust Santorum should be led by new democratic blood. No matter how much others beg me, I will not run for president in 2016."

February 23, 2015 - Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden rule out presidential runs

Today, both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden ruled out running for president in 2016, saying that new blood needs to come forth to assume the presidency. Neither one has given out an endorsement.

February 28, 2015 - Michele Bachmann in, Elizabeth Warren out

Today, on an interview with CNN, Sen. Elizabeth Warren said that she simply wants to remain a senator, and will not run for president in 2016. Meanwhile, in an interview with Fox News, Fmr. Rep. Michele Bachmann says that by not re-electing her to the house or electing her to the senate, the people of Minnesota have signaled that they want her to be president, and she is therefore running against Santorum in the republican primaries.

March 14, 2015 - Jim Webb announces Presidential Run

In a speech in Virginia, Fmr. Sen. Jim Webb announced that he would run for the presidency in 2016, saying that "I am exactly the sort of new blood that Obama, Clinton, and Biden speak of. With me as president, America will no longer be plagued by the terribleness of Santorum, and will be led to eternal greatness."

March 17, 2015 - Andrew Cuomo announces Presidential Run

In a speech in New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo says "It's not that Santorum's been a terrible president. He has been able to govern with some competency. But he takes his republican ideas way too far. We don't need a repeal of ObamaCare or Dodd-Frank. We don't need any more attempts to ban gay marriage in the constitution! I've worked with republicans without going too far-right in NY, and I'll do the same as president!"

March 23, 2015 - Bernie Sanders announces Presidential Run

In an interview with MSNBC, Sanders announces he will run for president as a Democrat, saying that the country needs the change that he can provide, and that running as a Democrat offers him a much better chance of winning as opposed to running as an Independent.

April 15, 2015 - Ed Rendell announces Presidential Run
 
In a speech in Pennsylvania, Rendell said "Despite calls by some to run for the senate, I have no interest in being a direct part of such a disfunctional body. No. I will instead run for the presidency, and just like I was a great Pennsylvania Governor, I will be a great President!"

April 19, 2015 - Martin O'Malley announces Presidential Run

On an interview with ABC, O'Malley touted his accomplishments as Maryland Governor, and announced a run for the presidency, saying that america needed his experience and great governing skills to prosper.

April 23, 2015 - Republicans hold NY-11, Nixon and Gutierrez rule out presidential run

Attorney Daniel Donovan held NY-11 for the republicans in today's special election, by a three point margin over Assemblyman William Colton.

House Composition (Post-NY-11-Special):

Rep - 247
Dem - 188

In other news, Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon and Illinois Rep. Luis Gutierrez ruled out presidential runs today. Neither one has given out an endorsement.

Current list of Major-Party Presidential Candidates

Rick Santorum (R) (Presumed candidate, has not formally declared candidacy)
Mike Lee (R)
Michele Bachmann (R)

Jim Webb (D)
Andrew Cuomo (D)
Bernie Sanders (D)
Ed Rendell (D)
Martin O'Malley (D)