US: House Redistricting Massachusetts

[Brittain33]

That's one possible perspective, sure.

[Brittain33]

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Wasn't it Margaret Heckler's district?

No, that was in 1982. (Also, her merger with Frank's district was a fair fight; the old 4th stretched out northwest to Fitchburg.) Another district was eliminated in 1992. That district's representative decided to retire from office rather than compete in a primary. Guess where he lived?
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Jim, are you still working on this? Have you tried sources on redistricting history?

[Brittain33]

Redrawing the map to make sense and not try to keep two western Mass districts with ridiculous tendrils? Too good to be true?

[Brittain33]

That appendage is Quincy, Mass. and it's been in the last two iterations of this district.

[Brittain33]

Looks like a solid 9-0 map. And cleaner than the current to boot.

You could draw lines at random and still get a 9-0 map.

If a non partisan judge drew the map, there would still be no competitive CD's in Mass? 

No matter what you do. you start with 1 district based in Worcester, 1 based in Springfield, 1 based in Essex County and including either Lawrence or Dem cities on the north shore, and one based on Cape Cod that strays into Democratic territory to get those final 100,000 people. Of what remains, it's hard to draw a Republican district that isn't a gerrymander.

The threshold for competitiveness for Republicans in Mass. is unnaturally high because of how weak the bench is. MA-10 was competitive in 2010 but they nominated one of two lame candidates.

[Brittain33]

Looks like a solid 9-0 map. And cleaner than the current to boot.

You could draw lines at random and still get a 9-0 map.

If a non partisan judge drew the map, there would still be no competitive CD's in Mass? 

No matter what you do. you start with 1 district based in Worcester, 1 based in Springfield, 1 based in Essex County and including either Lawrence or Dem cities on the north shore, and one based on Cape Cod that strays into Democratic territory to get those final 100,000 people. Of what remains, it's hard to draw a Republican district that isn't a gerrymander.

The threshold for competitiveness for Republicans in Mass. is unnaturally high because of how weak the bench is. MA-10 was competitive in 2010 but they nominated one of two lame candidates.

Thinking about this a little further, within those constraints you could do a swap among the new MA-4 and MA-5 to make MA-4 much more suburban/exurban and throw Newton and Brookline in with an urban or inner suburban district. But you'd still have Fall River in the district.

[Brittain33]

Keating is running in the 9th district. He announced this morning he was moving to "the home he and his wife have owned for 17 years" on Cape Cod. This is his second move in two years to run for Congress.

To put these numbers in perspective, Brown is from the 4th district. Baker is from the 6th district. The leading R candidate in the 6th district would be Richard Tisei, who is openly gay, but also viable against a weak Dem like Tierney.

Obama McCain, PVI (inflated due to Kerry)

1: 64-33, D+14
2: 61-35, D+12
3: 59-39, D+8
4: 60-37, D+11
5: 62-32, D+15
6: 56-41, D+6
7: 82-16, D+30
8: 57-41, D+8
9: 57-41, D+7

2010


1st District (Neal)
Coakley 49-49%
Patrick 51-37%

2nd District (McGovern)
Brown 54-44%
Patrick 47-43%

3rd District (Tsongas)
Brown 57-42%
Baker 48-44%

4th District (Frank vs. Keating?)
Brown 55-45%
Patrick 46-46%

5th District (Markey)
Coakley 55-44%
Patrick 54-39%

6th District (Tierney)
Brown 58-41%
Baker 50-41%

7th District (Capuano)
Coakley 73-26%
Patrick 73-23%

8th District (Lynch vs. Keating?)
Brown 55-44%
Patrick 44-43%

9th District (Open or Keating?)
Brown 57-42%
Baker 45-45%

[Brittain33]

Bump for Frank retiring. Thoughts on whether MA-04 will be redrawn more reasonably?

Patrick already signed the map into law. It's a done deal and changing the 4th now would wreak havoc with other districts.

[Brittain33]

Barney Frank had a fun interview in the Globe today where he bashed the legislature for protecting Ed Markey and Steve Lynch and letting everyone else go hand, and called out Markey for lobbying to make his district better when Frank would have liked some more help.

[Brittain33]

South Boston and West Roxbury are not "white liberal" areas.