ABC/Ipsos: Biden +1 (RV), +4 (LV)

[wbrocks67]

RV:
Biden (D) 46%
Trump (R) 45%

Biden (D) 42%
Trump (R) 42%
RFK Jr. 12%

LV:
Biden (D) 49%
Trump (R) 45%

Biden fav 40/51 (-11)
Trump fav 33/58 (-25)

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/6-months-out-tight-presidential-race-trump-biden-poll/story?id=109909175

[SnowLabrador]

Outlier.

[wbrocks67]

Given that ABC/Wapo have not done a poll since September, this is interesting timing. I wonder if ABC is oscillating between Ipsos and Wapo to cut costs, b/c Gary Langer is the one who handled this poll, and he usually handles the Wapo polls too.

[SnowLabrador]

Given that ABC/Wapo have not done a poll since September, this is interesting timing. I wonder if ABC is oscillating between Ipsos and Wapo to cut costs, b/c Gary Langer is the one who handled this poll, and he usually handles the Wapo polls too.

My guess is that they released it now to give Biden supporters hope, even if it's false hope.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

So a Trump internal comes out showing him up in MN and y’all treat it like the gospel, yet a high quality poll (which had a history of showing very trump friendly results) shows Biden up and y'all dismiss it. Makes sense.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Given that ABC/Wapo have not done a poll since September, this is interesting timing. I wonder if ABC is oscillating between Ipsos and Wapo to cut costs, b/c Gary Langer is the one who handled this poll, and he usually handles the Wapo polls too.

My guess is that they released it now to give Biden supporters hope, even if it's false hope.

Don't start.

[Podgy the Bear]

There is now a clear trend that the LV turnout is more Biden-friendly (in this and other surveys).  Therefore, a high propensity voter that will come out in November.    And if this means a more affluent, suburban, educated electorate (and less of POC that the Republicans claim to reach), so be it. 

The tactics that the Republicans have been doing to discourage turnout the low propensity voter may come back to bite them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Finally a poll with Biden leads

[Woody]

So a Trump internal comes out showing him up in MN and y’all treat it like the gospel, yet a high quality poll (which had a history of showing very trump friendly results) shows Biden up and y'all dismiss it. Makes sense.

Biden still loses with this PV margin. And looking at the polling bias from 2020, I'd unskew the poll at a minimum to Trump +2. So that's a healthy lead for him regardless in the swing states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So a Trump internal comes out showing him up in MN and y’all treat it like the gospel, yet a high quality poll (which had a history of showing very trump friendly results) shows Biden up and y'all dismiss it. Makes sense.

Biden still loses with this PV margin. And looking at the polling bias from 2020, I'd unskew the poll at a minimum to Trump +2. So that's a healthy lead for him regardless in the swing states.

Lol it won't be +1 it's more Ds in this country Marist had it 3 but the fact he is ahead not behind is a good thing

[Matty]

The LV sample is 50% college educated

Isn’t that pretty high?

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Looks like that economy bump is emerging, unsurprisingly.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1787100469770203346

[Podgy the Bear]

The LV sample is 50% college educated

Isn’t that pretty high?

The number of Americans with college degrees/certifications is up to 54 percent.

[Roll Roons]

The LV sample is 50% college educated

Isn’t that pretty high?

The number of Americans with college degrees/certifications is up to 54 percent.

"College-educated" is defined as people who have a bachelor's degree or higher. It doesn't include community college/trade school degrees or certifications.

With that definition, it's probably somewhere in the mid to high 30s.

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/chriswithans/status/1787113709309174198

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

ABC/Ipsos has Biden approval at 35% lol

He ain’t winning the election with an approval in the mid 30s lol

[wbrocks67]

ABC/Ipsos has Biden approval at 35% lol

He ain’t winning the election with an approval in the mid 30s lol

35% is among adults, not RV.

I could say the same thing about Trump's favorability. He ain't winning with a net fav of nearly -30.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

The LV sample is 50% college educated

Isn’t that pretty high?

The number of Americans with college degrees/certifications is up to 54 percent.

Nope.

In the Census Bureau's most recent 2022 findings, the percentage of people with a bachelor's degree or higher remained stable from the previous year at around 37.7%.

And again, Biden isn’t winning with a JA of 35%.

[Matty]

According to this poll, trump is leading young voters and Hispanics and is garnering 18% of the black vote.

Yet the margin is the same as 2020?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

ABC/Ipsos has Biden approval at 35% lol

He ain’t winning the election with an approval in the mid 30s lol

35% is among adults, not RV.

I could say the same thing about Trump's favorability. He ain't winning with a net fav of nearly -30.

55% view Trump’s presidency as a success. Only 39% say the same for Biden. I don’t think the red avatars understand the big hole Joe is in.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

According to this poll, trump is leading young voters and Hispanics and is garnering 18% of the black vote.

Yet the margin is the same as 2020?

I'm reading 13% of the black vote (which would be right around 2020), but I only skimmed.  Biden's bigger issue here might be that he's drawing only 73% of the black vote according to this poll versus 87% in 2020.  

Few Black people, 13%, back Trump; as many pick someone else.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ABC/Ipsos has Biden approval at 35% lol

He ain’t winning the election with an approval in the mid 30s lol

35% is among adults, not RV.

I could say the same thing about Trump's favorability. He ain't winning with a net fav of nearly -30.

55% view Trump’s presidency as a success. Only 39% say the same for Biden. I don’t think the red avatars understand the big hole Joe is in.

Polls lie we haven't voted yet

[GAinDC]

The blue avatars are slowly realizing that Biden’s in the driver’s seat this year. See how they’re flocking to pick apart this poll and prop up the crappy internals this morning?

And news flash — I know voters who would rate Trump’s presidency as a success but won’t vote for him because of Jan 6 and his current legal troubles.

[wbrocks67]

ABC/Ipsos has Biden approval at 35% lol

He ain’t winning the election with an approval in the mid 30s lol

35% is among adults, not RV.

I could say the same thing about Trump's favorability. He ain't winning with a net fav of nearly -30.

55% view Trump’s presidency as a success. Only 39% say the same for Biden. I don’t think the red avatars understand the big hole Joe is in.

Not sure why you keep citing the CNN poll as if its the only poll out there. This poll literally has Trumps retrospective approval at only 44/50.