The Election Results You Wanted & The Outcome You Deserve 2016

[sentinel]

October 28th, 2016

"Maybe Loretta is right. We should hold on that letter." - James Comey, FBI Director

November 8th 2016

"We can now predict that Hillary R. Clinton will be President of the United States."

Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY) / Sen. Tim Kaine (R-VA) - 323 EV, 47.75% PV
Donald J. Trump (R-NY) / Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN) - 215 EV, 46.69% PV

"This race was MUCH closer than everyone predicted. Clinton barely held onto states carried by Barack Obama twice...Wisconsin...Michigan...Pennsylvania...Florida all razor thin margins. The Clinton campaign did not think that Wisconsin and Michigan would be decided by a few thousand votes...the blue wall is in danger..." - Joe Scarborough, MSNBC

Senate Results:

Wisconsin: Russ Feingold defeats incumbent Ron Johnson (+1 D)
Colorado: Bennett wins reelection
Florida: Patrick Murphy defeats incumbent Marco Rubio (+1 D)
Illinois: Tammy Duckworth defeats incumbent Mark Kirk (+1 D)
North Carolina: Ross defeats incumbent Burr (+1 D)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan defeats incumbent Kelly Ayotte (+1 D)
Pennsylvania: Katie McGinty defeats incumbent Pat Toomey (+1 D)

Senate Final composition:

Democrats/Independents: 52
Republicans: 48

House Results

Democratic Party: 202 seats (+15)
Republican Party: 233 seats (-15)

Clinton Victory Speech

"...Thanks to you, we’ve reached a milestone – the first time in our nation’s history that a woman will be president of the United States...Tonight’s victory is not about one person it belongs to generations of women and men who struggled and sacrificed and made this moment possible. In our country, it started right here in New York, a place called Seneca Falls, in 1848. When a small but determined group of women, and men, came together with the idea that women deserved equal rights, and they set it forth in something called the Declaration of Sentiments, and it was the first time in human history that that kind of declaration occurred..."

November 9th 2016 - CNN

"We don't ordinarily tell Congress about ongoing investigations, but here I feel an obligation to do so given that I testified repeatedly in recent months that our investigation was complete...I also think it would be misleading to the American people were we not to supplement the record." - James Comey, FBI Director

"COVER UP...RIGGED...COMEY SHOULD BE IMPEACHED...I'LL RUN AGAIN!" - Donald J. Trump, former presidential candidate

"James Comey was between a rock and a hard place...break FBI policy and look like he was influencing an election...or follow policy and potentially look like you were covering up something..." - Anderson Cooper, CNN

[sentinel]

January 20th 2017 - Jumping Forward

"Last year, we saw the first women be elected President of the United States, the FBI announce the very next day they were looking at her emails again -- and now a day prior to the inauguration the FBI says there was nothing in the new emails that merits charges...the transition other than that has not been a bumpy road..." - Joe Scarborough, MSNBC

"We all believe that America succeeds when more people share in our prosperity; when more people have a voice in our political system; when more people can contribute to their communities. We believe that cooperation is better than conflict, unity is better than division, empowerment is better than resentment, and bridges are better than walls" - President Hillary Rodham Clinton, 45th President of the United States

Clinton Cabinet:

Secretary of State Wendy Sherman
Secretary of the Treasury  Gary Gensler    
Secretary of Defense Jack Reed
Attorney General Tom Perez    
Secretary of the Interior John Hickenlooper
Secretary of Agriculture Debbie Stabenow    
Secretary of Commerce Terry McAuliffe    
Secretary of Labor Jennifer Granholm
Secretary of Health and Human Services Steve Beshear    
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Christine Quinn    
Secretary of Transportation Michael Nutter
Secretary of Energy John Podesta
Secretary of Education John King   
Secretary of Veterans Affairs    Sloan Gibson
Secretary of Homeland Security Martin O’Malley    

The first year of the HRC Administration is marked by the passage of a large infrastructure and tax reform package. The law is widely hailed by moderates and both sides of the aisle. Right-wing Republicans vote against the bill as the spending is too much and the tax reform not drastic enough, while left-wing Democrats vote against the bill as the tax package is not progressive enough in nature.

The President's approvals start in the high 50's and quickly descend to within a few points either way of 50%. HRC's first trip abroad is to France, the United Kingdom and Belgium.  HRC enforces the new "no fly" zone over Syria coming into direct odds with Russia, although the situation does not escalate. By September 2017, economists put out serious warnings of a potential recession in the beginning of 2018. In October 2017, Vice President Tim Kaine launches an anti-bullying campaign which quickly flames out as Democrats lose the Virginia gubernatorial race in addition to the New Jersey gubernatorial.

By the beginning of 2018, Senate and House Democrats are privately in panic mode about the prospect of losing big in the November midterm elections. While the President is not hugely unpopular she is also not hugely popular. In March 2018, the government of Yemen falls to various factions including opposition forces within its own government and terrorists. This story overshadows the fall of ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In Syria, the Assad regime stands strong.

In October 2018, economists confirm that the economy went into recession in Q4-2017 and Q1-2018. The election becomes a referendum on the Administration's economic policy despite a positive outlook for future quarters.

In November 2018, Senate Democrats lose races in MO, VA, MT, ND, PA and WV

2019 - 2021 Senate Composition:

Democrats/Independents: 46 (-6 seats)
Republicans: 54 (+6 seats)

In the House of Representatives, Democrats lose the gains of 2016...and more.

2019 - 2021 House of Representatives Composition:
Democratic Party: 167 seats (-35 seats)
Republican Party: 268 seats  (+35 seats)

"Democrats are at a severe disadvantage heading into 2020. They are already at a severe disadvantage in redistricting but this election has made it even worse." - John King, CNN

[sentinel]

December 2018

"Will you run for President in 2020?" - Katy Tur, MSNBC

"If I ran, I would win. I would win big. Clinton would be so easy to beat. Just look at the economy, worse than ever before. She cheated her way into the White House in 2016. Everyone knows she is a crook now." - Donald J. Trump, former Republican nominee for President

"But will you run?

"We're looking at it, but if I run, I'll win big. Big. You won't believe it."

--

"If you're reading the tea leaves then you're betting on Mike Pence to run. I don't know what he'll do if Trump decides to run again." - Conservative commentator Stephen Bannon

--

"Friends, I will not be a candidate for Speaker of the House of Representatives next Congress." - Speaker Paul Ryan to the Republican Conference

--

"Is Hillary running for reelection?" - Energy Secretary John Podesta privately to Chief of Staff Jake Sullivan.

--

"I'm going go give it another go." - former Ohio Governor John Kasich

--

"Heidi, this time we're going to win." - Senator Ted Cruz

--

"If she's out, I'm in." - Sec. Martin O'Malley

--

"There is no way we are holding the presidency four terms in a row." - Corey Booker

[sentinel]

January 2019 - Clinton Cabinet Composition

Clinton Cabinet:

Secretary of State Wendy Sherman  (2017 - 2019) Jack Reed (2019 - Current)
Secretary of the Treasury  Gary Gensler   (2017 -  2019) Sheryl Sandberg (2019 - Current)
Secretary of Defense Jack Reed (2017 - 2019) Michèle Flournoy (2019 - Current)
Attorney General Tom Perez  (2017 -  Current)  
Secretary of the Interior John Hickenlooper  (2017 - Current)
Secretary of Agriculture Debbie Stabenow  (2017 -  Current)
Secretary of Commerce Terry McAuliffe  (2017 -  Current)  
Secretary of Labor Jennifer Granholm  (2017 - 2018) Ed Montgomery (2018 - Current)
Secretary of Health and Human Services Steve Beshear  (2017 -   Current)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Christine Quinn  (2017 -  2017)   Eric Garcetti (2017 - Current)
Secretary of Transportation Michael Nutter  (2017 - 2019) Michael Huerta (2019 - Current)
Secretary of Energy John Podesta  (2017 - Current)
Secretary of Education John King   (2017 -  2018) Kaya Henderson (2018 - Current)
Secretary of Veterans Affairs  Sloan Gibson  (2017 - Current)
Secretary of Homeland Security Martin O’Malley (2017 - Current)

Hillary Clinton State of the Union Speech, January 2019:

"...I know many of you are asking if I'll be a candidate for a second term in office. I can answer you tonight. In order to focus on putting the American people first, I will not seek reelection and will instead focus my efforts on providing a strong economic future for every American..." - President Hillary Clinton

"This is the first time in the modern era that a sitting president has opted to not seek a second term in office. President Clinton will instead focus on the economy." - Lester Holt, NBC

"CROOKED HILLARY WON'T RUN AGAIN. RUNNING SCARED FROM TRUMP!" - Donald J. Trump, former Republican Presidential nominee

February 2019

With the announcement that President Clinton would not seek reelection, the dam broke and presidential speculation fever was widespread in the media. Would Vice President Tim Kaine run? Secretary of Homeland Security Martin O'Malley was known to be considering a run regardless of Kaine. On the Republican side, would the 2016 GOP nominee Donald Trump run for office? What about ousted Senator Marco Rubio or 2016 also-ran Ted Cruz? Former comedian and current Senator Al Franken? Would America feel the Bern again?

[Heisenberg]

Who did Rick Snyder appoint to Debbie Stabenow's seat? And what were the results for the 2018 Michigan Senate race?

[sentinel]

Who did Rick Snyder appoint to Debbie Stabenow's seat? And what were the results for the 2018 Michigan Senate race?

Eh, he was a good sport and appointed a Democratic placeholder. Democrat wins in 2018. Will define it more if it becomes relevant to my storyline.

[sentinel]

February 2019 Continued

"Madam President, please accept my resignation. I am going to run for President of the United States." - Martin O'Malley

With the announcement that President Clinton would not seek reelection, the gates flooded open for rumors and candidates to jump in. The search for talent for campaigns quickly ensued as Clinton world disembarked the reelection campaign in waiting.

Simultaneously, President Clinton negotiated with the Republican Congress on a tax-relief package designed to bolster the economy and nip the recession in the butt. Despite most economist predictions that the recession would be minor and short, the President's approvals still fell into the 40's. Speaker Cathy McMorris Rodgers would lead negotiations for that deal with the Clinton Administration. The deal would be finalized by June 2019.

July 2019

We have a big announcement coming from former Republican nominee Donald J. Trump..." - Katy Tur, MSNBC

"I've done it. I scared crooked President Clinton into not seeking reelection. She would lose! So unpopular and look at the economy. What a mess. A disaster! I've already won by scaring off crooked Hillary. I would have ran to beat her, but now I don't need to. I will not be a candidate for President." - Donald J. Trump

December 2019

WHO IS IN:

Democrats:

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Senator Martin Heinrich of New Mexico
Vice President Tim Kaine of Virginia
Former Governor & Former Homeland Security Secretary Martin O'Malley of Maryland
Former Senator Jon Tester of Montana
Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire
Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York
Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina
Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

Republicans:

Governor Matt Bevin of Kentucky
Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas
Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas
Former Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Governor Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas
Former Governor John Kasich of Ohio
Former Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico
Former Governor Mike Pence of Indiana
Former Governor Brian Sandoval of Nevada
Former Governor Rick Scott of Florida
Former Governor Rick Snyder of Michigan


Libertarian:
Former Governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts
Former Governor Jesse Ventura of Minnesota

[sentinel]

December 2019 Polling

National:

Democrats:
Kaine: 20%
Warren: 16%
Cuomo: 13%
O'Malley: 8%
Gillibrand: 7%
Heinrich: 5%
Hassan: 3%
Tester: 2%
Cooper: 1%
Undecided: 25%

Republicans:

Pence: 17%
Cruz: 16%
Kasich: 11%
Baker: 10%
Nikki Haley: 8%
Sandoval: 5%
Scott: 5%
Cotton: 5%
Snyder: 3%
Bevin: 2%
Martinez: 2%
Hutchinson: 1%
Undecided: 15%

Libertarian:
Weld - 75%
Ventura- 25%

In Iowa, Senator Warren holds a small lead over Vice President Kaine. Senator Cruz and former Governor Pence are statistically tied in Iowa. In New Hampshire, Hassan leads narrowly against Senator Warren. Governor Baker holds a comfortable lead over his rivals in New Hampshire. In South Carolina, Vice President Kaine leads Cuomo and O'Malley while Warren's team already sees SC as a loss. On the Republican side, Haley leads Mike Pence.

[sentinel]

The Early Primaries

Iowa

The Republican caucus in Iowa was hotly contested on both sides but many Republican operatives saw the state going once again for Ted Cruz. One day before the caucus, Donald Trump endorsed Mike Pence his former VP nominee. In a surprise, Nikki Haley surged to second place at the finish line.

Republicans:

Pence: 23%
Haley: 17%
Cruz: 16%
Kasich: 15%
Cotton: 7%
Baker: 6%
Scott: 5%
Sandoval: 5%
Hutchinson: 3%
Snyder: ~1%
Bevin: ~1%
Martinez: ~1%

On the Democratic side, Senator Warren had held a slim lead for the majority of the race over Vice President Kaine. On caucus night, Kaine's operation surprised everyone.

Democrats:

Kaine: 26%
Warren: 23%
Cuomo: 16%
Heinrich: 13%
O'Malley: 9%
Gillibrand: 7%
Hassan: 3%
Tester: 2%
Cooper: 1%


New Hampshire

Heading into New Hampshire, Hassan was emboldened by Warren's loss in Iowa.

Democrats:

Hassan: 37%
Kaine: 22%
Warren: 20%
Cuomo: 8%
Heinrich: 4%
Gillibrand: 4%
O'Malley: 2%
Tester: 2%
Cooper: 1%

On the Republican side, Pence was given a boost by his win but not enough to overcome Baker's advantage.

Republicans:

Baker: 30%
Haley: 18%
Kasich: 16%
Pence: 12%
Cruz: 11%
Sandoval: 4%
Cotton: 2%
Hutchinson: 2%
Scott: 2%
Snyder: ~1%
Bevin: ~1%
Martinez: ~1%

Nevada



Republicans:

New Hampshire served as a killing field for candidates in the GOP primary.

Baker: 30%
Pence: 27%
Sandoval: 20%
Haley: 12%
Kasich: 8%
Cruz: 3%

Democrats:

On the Democratic side, it seemed as things had begun to consolidate.

Kaine: 51%
Warren: 23%
Hassan: 18%
Cuomo: 8%


South Carolina

Republicans

Nikki Haley was widely credited for what the media saw as overperformance which boosted her victory in her home state of South Carolina.

Haley: 47%
Pence: 38%
Baker: 15%

Democrats:

On the Democratic side, Kaine took his third win. Hassan would drop out of the race the following day and back Kaine.

Kaine: 58%
Warren: 30%
Hassan: 12%


Republican Primaries:

Red - Mike Pence (R-IN) - 1 state, Iowa
Green - Nikki Haley (R-SC) - 1 state, South Carolina
Blue - Charlie Baker (R-MA), 2 states, NV & NH

March 2019

On the Democratic side, Kaine would take Virginia, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, Colorado, Arkansas, American Samoa, Alabama. Warren would take Vermont, Massachusetts and Oklahoma.  Kaine would go on to sweep Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Louisana, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina and Ohio. Warren would drop out of the race after and accept Vice President Kaine's invitation to be his running mate.

On the Republican side, Baker would take Massachusetts, Colorado, Minnesota and Vermont. Pence would take Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee and Texas. Haley would take Georgia and Virginia.

Later in the month, Baker would take Florida, Illinois, Maine while Haley would take North Carolina. Pence would take Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio.

Come April and May, Baker would win New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island and Oregon. Pence would take West Virginia, Indiana and Pennsylvania. Haley would drop out and, in a surprise, back Baker.

The campaign would drag on until California, after which Mike Pence would concede the race to Charlie Baker of Massachusetts.

The General Election

Aight, I'm getting bored at my own timeline again.

Charlie Baker would go on to pick former Governor Nikki Haley as his VP.

Baker/Haley, 280 EV, 53% PV
Kaine/Warren - 258 EV, 47% PV