A Challenge

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

from the CBO:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

*expected to increase as more people sign up

Employer-sponsored insurance deduction = about $250 billion

So that adds up to about $1.2 Trillion in current federal health spending.

Private health insurance premiums, I've seen estimates very roughly about $1 Trillion.   If you take the $250 billion in employer deductions, and $40 billion in exchange subsidies out of that, then you have about $710 in the private market that Medicare-for-all would have to make up.   But then figure that Medicaid recipients receive less in reimbursements to physicians than for Medicare, so there will be an increase if these people are moved to Medicaid, and that Medicare can cover more co-pay than many private insurance.

On the other hand, private insurance needs to make a profit, whereas Medicare would not, so that might bring down.

So, I'd guess a need for anywhere from $650-850 billion or so more in annual federal health spending, in order to do Medicare for All, which will increase each year, unless we figure out some major ways to cut health spending inflation.   And that is not counting the fact that Medicare is already going to be a major cause of deficits in the future without some either cuts in spending and/or tax increases, as it is, with just the elderly population.  This would be tough.   

I suppose taking military spending down to zero might be enough in the short term not to increase the deficit, but that is not a serious proposal.

We could take some out of defense, but before we cut the defense budget in any substantial fashion, we need to fundamentally rethink our role in the world as it has been for most of the past century, or else we will be trying to do the same things we have been doing, only without the resources to do it.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Folks, foreign aid is like 1% of the budget or something. It's not the reason military spending is so insanely high.

Incidentally, some scholars of Welfare policy have argued that the US' very high military spending is so high because the military-industrial complex basically works as a welfare program, providing jobs and various benefits that alleviate poverty in some area, and compensate for the lack of social spending. Of course, this kind of spending is far less effective than it would be if the money was directly focused on actual welfare spending, but it's certainly an interesting way to look at it.

It is certainly the government's most significant jobs program, and a significant contribution to the economy of many places in the US.  That doesn't mean it's an efficient or sensible way to go about this, but it's hard for any social welfare program to replace that.  Just providing benefits without the jobs and the sense of purpose (of being part of the nation's defense, or of an economy which supports it) doesn't do the same thing for people.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Incidentally, some scholars of Welfare policy have argued that the US' very high military spending is so high because the military-industrial complex basically works as a welfare program, providing jobs and various benefits that alleviate poverty in some area, and compensate for the lack of social spending.

As tempting as this argument can be, it is incorrect as American military spending - including all the money showered on contractors and so on here as well - is not now and never has been concentrated in areas with severe social problems. Quite the opposite actually (a couple of well-known exceptions aside). There is often a link to politics (why, yes, Congressman Dan T. Porkburger Jr. is indeed very interested in the idea of a military base/major armaments factory being built in his district) but such things go on in other countries as well, if on a smaller scale.

There are plenty of military bases in areas with significant socioeconomic problems, even as they are not concentrated around them. Many places, even if they aren't at the low end of indicators, have become very dependent on the military presence and can face major problems if it leaves, which creates a serious problem to deal with in the midst of making military downsizing happen.