2013 Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

New Niedersachsen poll by INFO GmbH for Focus:

38.5 CDU
33.0 SPD
12.5 Greens
  4.5 Pirates
  4.0 Left
  3.5 FDP
  4.0 Others

Majority for SPD-Greens (45.5-38.5)

[Tender Branson]

New Berlin Forsa poll:

state



federal

[Tender Branson]

There are just 2 words that explain why the Berlin-SPD has fallen behind the CDU:

"Fucked-up Airport"

[Tender Branson]

Wait, why are they having another election in Berlin so early?

They aren't.

So why poll a local election which is 3 or 4 years away?

Because the main newspapers in the states want some polls once in a while.

Usually, if the election is just over you already see a new poll within a few months already.

In Germany and here as well ...

[Tender Branson]

Hahaha, poor Steinbrück:

Steinbrück: Merkel gets 'women's bonus' in polls

Peer Steinbrück, SPD challenger to Angela Merkel in next year's election, has committed a second PR blunder in two days. After complaining that chancellors get paid too little, he said Merkel's popularity was down to a "women's bonus."

"Angela Merkel is loved because she gets a women's bonus," Steinbrück told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper.

The statement was part of a slightly clumsy attempt to praise his election opponent, during which he said that female voters in particular admired Merkel's career trajectory.

He said the chancellor had "asserted herself in a men's world, seems very unpretentious and presents herself very modestly," which he said were all qualities that those who traditionally voted for his Social Democratic Party valued too.

"But that doesn't mean that I'm seen as the 'God help us' candidate," he added.

Steinbrück also said that he did not intend to adapt his own presentation style in the upcoming election campaign to counteract Merkel's "advantages."

"That would just be exposed as play-acting anyway," he said, before arguing that elections weren't won by popularity in any case. Steinbrück pointed out that, as state premier of North-Rhine Westphalia in 2005, he had been ahead of his election opponent Jürgen Rüttgers in the popularity polls, but had still lost the election.

The SPD candidate's faux pas comes close on the heels of Saturday's complaint that the German chancellor is paid too little for the amount of responsibility he or she has. "Almost every bank director in North-Rhine Westphalia earns more than the chancellor," he told the FAS.

http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20121230-47045.html

[Tender Branson]

New Brandenburg poll by Forsa for the MAZ:

Federal

28% [+3] SPD
27% [+3] CDU
26%  [-3] Left
  7% [+1] Greens
  4%  [-5] FDP
  3%  [nc] Pirates
  5% [+1] Others

Merkel leads Steinbrück by 51-22 in her "home state".

State

36% [+3] SPD
24%  [-3] Left
22% [+2] CDU
  7% [+1] Greens
  3%  [-4] FDP
  2% [+2] Pirates
  6%  [-1] Others

http://www.maerkischeallgemeine.de/cms/beitrag/12447543/62249/MAZ-Umfrage-Kanzlerin-liegt-vor-Gegenkandidat-Steinbrueck-SPD.html

[Tender Branson]

New Brandenburg poll by Forsa for the MAZ:

Federal

28% [+3] SPD
27% [+3] CDU
26%  [-3] Left
  7% [+1] Greens
  4%  [-5] FDP
  3%  [nc] Pirates
  5% [+1] Others

Merkel leads Steinbrück by 51-22 in her "home state".

Merkel's 'home state'? You might say so, considering she grew up in Brandenburg - and was born in Hamburg, studied in Saxony (Leipzig), worked in Berlin pre-1990, then in Bonn (NRW)  ..

But her constituency is in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (since 1990), where her second husband works and resides. That state's interests is also what she is pushing forward - G8 summit in Heiligendamm, promoting wind energy (NORDEX is Mecklenburg's largest company by turnover), supporting shipbuilding deals with Russia, etc. So, the common German perception would be Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, not Brandenburg being Merkel's home state.

I know. That's why I wrote "home state", not home state.

[Tender Branson]

New Brandenburg poll by Forsa for the MAZ:


State

36% [+3] SPD
24%  [-3] Left
22% [+2] CDU
  7% [+1] Greens
  3%  [-4] FDP
  2% [+2] Pirates
  6%  [-1] Others

What kind of coalition does that make ? Incumbent Red-red or previous Red-black ?

I don't know how the coalition climate is, if it is good then probably Red-Red, if it is worn out then probably Red-Black like before.

[Tender Branson]

New Niedersachsen poll by Infratest dimap for NDR (they vote on Jan. 20):



Governor David McAllister (CDU) leads big in the direct vote for Governor:



Governor David McAllister (CDU) gets a 64-25 job approval rating:



Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) gets a 68-31 job approval rating:



SPD-frontrunner Peer Steinbrück gets a 52-38 job approval rating:



FDP-leader Philipp Rösler gets a 20-72 job approval rating:



Green-leader Jürgen Trittin gets a 52-38 job approval rating:



A CDU-FDP coalition would be ... 65-32 bad for Niedersachsen:



A SPD-Green coalition would be ... 52-44 good for Niedersachsen:



A Grand Coalition (CDU-SPD) would be ... 52-44 bad for Niedersachsen:



A CDU-Green coalition would be ... 73-23 bad for Niedersachsen:



http://www.ndr.de/regional/niedersachsen/landtagswahl_niedersachsen_2013/umfragen/niedersachsentrend149.html

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, CDU/CSU has reached a new record-high (best poll result since November 2007) in the new Infratest dimap poll:

41% CDU/CSU (West: 42%, East: 39%)
29% SPD (West: 30%, East: 24%)
12% Greens (West: 13%, East: 8%)
  6% Left (West: 3%, East: 17%)
  4% FDP (West: 4%, East: 4%)
  4% Pirates (West: 4%, East: 4%)
  4% Others (West: 4%, East: 4%)

47% SPD-Greens-Left vs. 45% CDU-CSU-FDP

[Tender Branson]

*is motivated by above post to check newbie's profile to see where in Germany he's from*

Oh yeah, and a belated "welcome to the forum!" is in order, too!

Thanks for the welcome! Newbie was born and grew up in Hannover (surprise, surprise !). studied and lived for many years in Hamburg (when not travelling the world working as a consultant), and is since more than ten years residing in Schleswig-Holstein's "bacon belt" northeast of Hamburg.

On a further disclosure: In my youth, I was among the founding members of the GAL, after getting fed up with the way my school-mate Olaf Scholz was running the local JuSo group. However, the GAL somehow lost me when they computerised their membership files, and I never bothered to remind them about me ... 

Good to see.

So you must be at least 50 years old ?

50-60 I guess ?

[Tender Branson]

New Infratest dimap federal poll shows the CDU/CSU-SPD gap widening:

41% CDU/CSU
28% SPD
14% Greens
  6% Left
  4% FDP
  3% Pirates
  4% Others

CDU/CSU has no majority (41-48).

New Bavaria federal election poll by Forsa:

49% CSU
19% SPD
14% Greens
  5% Left
  3% FDP
  3% Pirates
  7% Others

...

3 new state election polls:

Lower Saxony - Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF

39% CDU
33% SPD
13% Greens
  5% FDP
  3% Left
  3% Pirates
  4% Others

SPD-Greens has a slim 46-44 majority over CDU-FDP.

Lower Saxony - GMS for the state-CDU

41% CDU
33% SPD
13% Greens
  5% FDP
  3% Left
  3% Pirates
  2% Others

46-46 tie between CDU-FDP and SPD-Greens.

Bavaria - Forsa

46% CSU
18% SPD
13% Greens
  9% Freie Wähler
  4% Left
  3% FDP
  2% Pirates
  5% Others

CSU has a 46-40 absolute majority.

[Tender Branson]

Prediction:

SPD-Greens is losing it in Lower Saxony.

...

PS: Strangely strong showing by the Left in Bavaria @ 4% in the Forsa poll.

But they already got 4.4% in the 2008 state election, so maybe they could pull off something similar. Or the poll is just bad. Probably the latter.

[Tender Branson]

What are the chances that the McAllister-CDU wins close to 45% on election day and the FDP about 5% ?

[Tender Branson]

What are the chances that the McAllister-CDU wins close to 45% on election day and the FDP about 5% ?

Maybe not quite 45, but he's popular enough something like that might happen.

Just noticed that the TV debate between McAllister and the SPD-guy will start in 15 minutes.

Here is the live-stream:

http://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/livestream217.html

[Tender Branson]

Two questions/musings:

Chances that the Greens come out ahead of the SPD in Bavaria?

Chances that the Greens come out ahead of the SPD in the Federal election?

Bonus question musing:

Chances that the CDU/CSU wins in the high 40s in the Federal election and wins an outright majority of seats?

Question 1: Only if the CSU backs a plan to create an additional 2 or 3 starting lanes at the Munich Airport and the SPD back their plans ...

Question 2: Only if a Nuclear Power Plant blows up somewhere in Germany.

Question 3: Only if Merkel does something "really cool" in the next months and the economy recovers.

[Tender Branson]

Steinbrück is crashing in the latest ARD poll:











Job approval ratings:

[Tender Branson]

New Emnid poll:

41% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
14% Greens
  8% Left
  4% Pirates
  3% FDP
  4% Others

In the last 2 months, the gap between CDU/CSU and SPD has widened from 8% to 15% ...



Indeed ...

[Tender Branson]

Time to start thinking about a coalition with the Greens and the Left, SPD.

2013 is gone.

Either CDU-FDP again or a Grand Coalition.

Then in 2017, Merkel vs. Kraft.

[Tender Branson]

My Niedersachsen prediction:

42% CDU
31% SPD
13% Greens
  5% FDP (slightly above 5% to be exact)
  3% Left
  3% Pirates
  3% Others

CDU-FDP re-elected with 47% vs. 44%.

[Tender Branson]

Ahead of the state election, a new federal Emnid poll:

43% CDU/CSU (+2)
25% SPD (-1)
13% Greens (-1)
  7% Left (-1)
  4% FDP (+1)
  4% Pirates (nc)
  4% Others (nc)

Biggest. Gap. Ever.

Compared with their 11/11 poll, it seems 5% from the SPD switched over to the CDU (38-30).

[Tender Branson]

Lower Saxony:

First turnout measurement at 10am: 5.37% (down from 5.67% in 2008)

http://www.landeswahlleiter.niedersachsen.de/portal/live.php?navigation_id=6743&article_id=112202&_psmand=21

[Tender Branson]

Lower Saxony turnout at 12:30pm:

23.03% (up from 22.65% in 2008)

[Tender Branson]

At 16:30, 55.3% had voted, copmapred to 49.5% atz the same time five years ago.

53.3%

[Tender Branson]

Looks like a good day for the Conservatives in Germany/Austria today ...