Who will win the GOP Nomination?

[WillK]

Perry is actually winning the electability argument (amongst GOP primary voters), leaving Romney with???

I expect Romney to try to paint Perry as the career politician while pointing out that he (Romney) only spent 4 years in government, which will unfortunately highlight that Romney's track record of winning elections isn't that great, confusing the so-called electability image of Romney.   

Not only is Romney's "career politician" attack silly for pointing out how he keeps losing elections. But the other thing is that I think Romney misreads the conservative/tea party mood in that they are more anti-Washington as opposed to anti-politician and Perry is very anti-Washington. Plus the Tea Party are also no fans of Wall Street so I am pretty sure a GOP primary voter will take a Texas Governor over the head of Bain Capital.

Yes.  I had considered adding that Romney will try to claim that rather than winning elections and serving terms in office, he was busy 'creating jobs', leading to the revelation that he was actually in the leveraged buyout business that typically resulted in job losses, not gains, though it did  amass millions for Romney. I think the lack of love for millionaire 'Wall Street' types extends beyond the Tea Party.  The comparisons between Romney and Gordon Gekko are already out there.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Romney, Perry is going to implode, he looks good, but he isnt going to go anywhere when the time comes. Hopefully, (and it wont happen ) Paul will win.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

How does anyone from this field keep from imploding in a few months time? I don't see it.

[tmthforu94]

I think Romney will still win the GOP nomination, but I don't feel as comfortable as I did a few weeks ago.

[Eraserhead]

I'm reasonably confident it will be Romney or Perry now. Perry's entrance has basically drowned Bachmann's campaign. Her chance was dependent upon getting into the finals with Romney and that will almost certainly never happen now.

[NCeriale]

I'm reasonably confident it will be Romney or Perry now. Perry's entrance has basically drowned Bachmann's campaign. Her chance was dependent upon getting into the finals with Romney and that will almost certainly never happen now.

+1

[Sam Spade]

Of the candidates running right now...

...only Romney and Perry can actually win the nomination.  Amongst those two, Perry will be favored insofar as he is viewed, at minimum, "electable" or "as electable as Romney."  This is his present standing, so henceforth he should be favored at this point.

Bachmann has shown that she is basically not ready for prime time (and probably never ready), though she could well finish second in Iowa.  Ron Paul could well get 10%-15% in Iowa, but has no chance of winning.  The rest are jokes.

Caveat:  It's far too early for me to be making real predictions.  Just some Labor Day observations.

[stegosaurus]

Romney, probably. I have a hard time believing that the GOP establishment would allow Rick Perry to win the nomination without first doing everything they could to bury him in favor of Romney.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Currently, Romney followed by Paul.

Perry has absolutely no lasting power, and he is no more a front runner than Trump, Cain, or Bachmann. He hasn't even been in a debate yet, nor have the attacks started pouring in, nor has his five minutes of fame bonus worn off. If he is still doing this well in a month I will change my vote to Perry, but all he is doing right now is hurting Romney's long term chances. Same thing for Bachmann, Cain, etc.

[Yelnoc]

I voted for Perry because he is certainly the front-runner right now, but on second thought, I agree with ModernBourban Democrat.  Perry is the August/September flavor of the month.  If he screws up in the September debates and takes some blows over his sketchy past, he may well fall back down to the bottom of the heap.  Especially if the "Long-awaited Sarah" gets in.  In that case, Romney should cruise to the nomination.  Whether he holds is own against Obama is really unknowable.

[Thomas D]

Rick Perry is the favorite right now. But ask again in December.

[Bull Moose Base]

I voted for Perry because he is certainly the front-runner right now, but on second thought, I agree with ModernBourban Democrat.  Perry is the August/September flavor of the month.  If he screws up in the September debates and takes some blows over his sketchy past, he may well fall back down to the bottom of the heap.  Especially if the "Long-awaited Sarah" gets in.  In that case, Romney should cruise to the nomination.  Whether he holds is own against Obama is really unknowable.

I think the last part will give him some protection from electability arguments, which seems to be one of his biggest hurdles.  Hillary Clinton leaned on electability against Obama, in the wake of the Wright controversy and some Obama gaffes, more or less arguing Obama would lose because of white voters.  But the argument failed.  Perry is in something of a similar position, but his climb was earlier than Obama's.  To be seen whether that means Romney will have more time to find a way to drag him down or whether it means there was more appetite to reject the heir apparent.

And I don't think Cain and Bachmann just came and went so much as were eclipsed by more attractive alternatives for the base.  Don't see that on the horizon for Perry really. (Trump meanwhile was his own animal: hit within the span of a week with Obama releasing his long-form birth certificate, Obama embarrassing him at the White House Correspondents Dinner and Obama interrupting Celebrity Apprentice to announce Bin Laden had been killed.)

As for past 2008 frontrunners, I don't think Perry compares well to them either.  Giuliani and Romney, one-time frontrunners for the 2008 nomination, both had huge built-in problems with social conservatives that were always likely to cause problems for them.  Romney has been trying to make hay over Perry's opposition to a border fence but I'm skeptical it's the candidacy-killer a pro-choice history is.  Thompson's biggest problem as I see it was there was a far more charismatic and appealing Southern social conservative people took their eye off of that bumped him for that spot. Don't see that problem for Perry given that he already has dusted Cain, Bachmann and Palin in polls.

He's still the favorite.

[Disarray]

The National Review has an interesting piece on Perry's debate performance as Governor as Texas and after reading it I don't think theirs any reason to suggest his debate performance is going to be a negative.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Perry or Romney.  The Gingrich/Santorum/Cain crowd just don't appear to have a chance.  Huntsman has said the climate is real, that single issue bars him from the GOP nomination.  Bachmann looked like a temporary filler kind of like Trump until a more serious conservative like Perry got it.  Paul needs no explanation as to why he has a near zero opportunity.

Palin could always do something and be a game changer.  However with the field as it is a Perry vs Romney race is likely with Bachmann drifting into the 3rd tier category of Gingrich/Santorum/Cain/Huntsman.  Depending on how much of the hyper-partisan conservative Republican vote Gingrich/Santorum/Cain/Bachmann take away from Perry could be the determining factor for a Perry or Romney nomination

[Miles]

As much as I'd like to see Huntsman, I'm inclined to go with Perry at this point.

[Simfan34]

As much as I'd like to see Huntsman, I'm inclined to go with Perry at this point.

Sigh... dum spiro spero, however.

[milhouse24]

The problem for Perry is that Romney does much better with independent swing voters. 
I think Romney stands a better chance at beating Obama. 
Perry can put up a fight, but he's more of a regional flavor for Southern evangelicals and moderate GOP voters just won't vote for him. 
Romney can still win the primaries if he wins NH, Michigan and Nevada.  It may be a drawn out contest, but Romney can win if he plays his cards right. 

[Averroës Nix]

Romney or Perry, though it's very hard to say who. Each has an interesting mix of advantages and disadvantages, but it's really hard to see how both of them could lose.

Palin is the most likely of the rest, though she's still a long shot. (There are also those morons who aren't convinced that Chris Christie is totally uninterested - but I guess that if both Romney and Perry somehow showed that they were totally unacceptable nominees, by, for example, dieing, he might reconsider. Is there any good reason to expect that the field is unfinished, other than wildcard Palin? Giuliani and Bolton are the only other speculated candidates who haven't said no, and it'd very surprising if either announced at this point.)

I don't think Huntsman or Bachmann is quite impossible, but it's close to that. Paul is impossible, though he will continue to have an important effect on the dialogue.

Cain, Santorum, Gingrich, Johnson, Roemer, and McCotter are irrelevant.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Romney, probably. I have a hard time believing that the GOP establishment would allow Rick Perry to win the nomination without first doing everything they could to bury him in favor of Romney.

Especially if the Perry scandals I've been hearing about are
proven true. But Mitt is not in the clear by any stretch. With that prepare yourselves for the GOP nominee being Dr. Ron Paul.

[© tweed]

W Mitt

[Eraserhead]

W Mitt

Will you be campaigning for him on the forum again?

[minionofmidas]

Keep this in mind.  The GOP caters to these groups nowadays:

1) Christians
2) Rednecks
3) Corporations/the top tax bracket.

Good luck in the logic.

I see one candidate who can appeal to all three.
Happily, said candidate is probably unelectable on a full (relative to what's possible in America) turnout. But will we get one? Probably not.

[Username MechaRFK]

Keep this in mind.  The GOP caters to these groups nowadays:

1) Christians
2) Rednecks
3) Corporations/the top tax bracket.

Good luck in the logic.

I see one candidate who can appeal to all three.
Happily, said candidate is probably unelectable on a full (relative to what's possible in America) turnout. But will we get one? Probably not.

Rick Perry I'm assuming but how well could Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman do among rednecks? I would say more poorly then the average republican.

[TheGlobalizer]

Honestly, Romney.

Perry scares the bejesushalleliuahamen out of too many people, and the GOP doesn't generally nominate those sorts.

He's the "it could be worse" candidate that is electable.  I don't like him but the GOP wouldn't lose my vote.  (It is theirs to lose.)

[GLPman]

Romney. People will realize how extreme Perry is soon enough.