The TrumpCare comes back from the dead (...and lives!) thread

[Stranger in a strange land]

If they're still drastically raising premiums for old people (both by cutting subsidies and increasing the age variation from 3:1 to 5:1), this bill is certainly DOA.

The only possible explanation for this is that Trump is a con-man who sees his voters as marks to be taken advantage of. The GOP is damned if they do and damned if they don't on this.

[Stranger in a strange land]

So what are the chances this passes the Senate and is signed by Trump?

Around 90%.

I'm very, very skeptical that it will pass the Senate even if McConnell nukes the filibuster, and even if he does, any possible reconciled version will have a hard time passing either house.

[Stranger in a strange land]

So what are the chances this passes the Senate and is signed by Trump?

Around 90%.

I'm very, very skeptical that it will pass the Senate even if McConnell nukes the filibuster, and even if he does, any possible reconciled version will have a hard time passing either house.

The filibuster doesn't apply here. It will be passed through reconciliation, which has never been subject to the filibuster.

See my second point, which is actually the more important one here. Getting the moderates on board (Murkowski & Collins) while keeping the hardliners (Cruz, Lee, Paul on this issue, etc.) will be the hard part.