UK General Discussion

[You kip if you want to...]

Indeed, when I think of the threatened back of a taxi rump of remaining Liberals, an Eastleigh MP is in there.

Who else is in your taxi?

(Assume capacity 6, as in 1951/55/59.)

Surely Carmichael, Farron, Kennedy, Mark Williams, Cable and, from your suggestion, Huhne.

Of course, what's actually working in the LibDem's favour, with there being more Lib-Con fights than Lib-Lab, is that Tory support is falling away now too. The polls we got in 2011 of results like 42-38-10 would have been even more of a disaster for the Libs. And it goes without saying that, in 2015, freak results (like Eastleigh possible could be) should be expected.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suspect that we might see a surprising amount of fluidity between the two Government parties in the county council elections later this year.

[Supersonic]

It's amazing that half of the right-wing party voted for gay marriage.

Eh, a lot of the UK Convervatives are probably similar to those New England Republicans who are now Independents who vote Democratic.

I wouldn't be so quick to assume that many Tories would vote Democratic.

I was at a Conservative Future (under-30's wing) election hustings in London the other day, and the topic of 'who would you support in the 2012 US election' came up. All the candidates said they would have supported Romney or Gary Johnson. One drunk girl in the audience shouted 'I LOVE OBAMA', then the vast majority of the room shouted 'SHAME' and 'UNSOUND' in response. I overheard the person in front of me say 'how can you be a Conservative and a Democ-RAT'? 

Obviously this is just one little snippet, but Conservatives are not like-for-like Democrats, although I would agree that there is significant overlap on social issues.

In my experience, the members of the youth wing of conservative parties try to prove that they're the most right-wing person in the room. I think in many cases it's just an act - they move into the grown-up wing of the party and stop making fools of themselves.

I do think this does play into it.

[YL]

Who else is in your taxi?

(Assume capacity 6, as in 1951/55/59.)

Surely Carmichael, Farron, Kennedy, Mark Williams, Cable and, from your suggestion, Huhne.

I presume you mean Thornton...

Apart from that, I agree with you except for Williams.  I think if the Lib Dems do that badly (which I don't really think likely, btw) Plaid should take Ceredigion back.

[You kip if you want to...]

Who else is in your taxi?

(Assume capacity 6, as in 1951/55/59.)

Surely Carmichael, Farron, Kennedy, Mark Williams, Cable and, from your suggestion, Huhne.

I presume you mean Thornton...

Apart from that, I agree with you except for Williams.  I think if the Lib Dems do that badly (which I don't really think likely, btw) Plaid should take Ceredigion back.

I meant Huhne, if we'd been talking back when it looked like they'd scrape 8-9 seats.

And, to me, Ceredigion seems like on of the most unpredictable seats in the country.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LibDems took a hell of a beating in Aber last year, for whatever that's worth.

[Dr. Cynic]

I don't think the Lib Dems will do so badly as to get knocked down that far. If they do get thumped, they'll probably drop to about 25 seats. There are some Liberal Democrats who have a decent personal vote.

I'm curious about Mike Hancock's vote in Portsmouth South. He did have that whole issue with the Russian girl. Could he be gone next time regardless even though his vote has increased from 2005 to 2010?

John Denham's retirement in the very marginal Southampton Itchen should make a competitive and open contest.

I'm also looking closely at the Plymouth Sutton and Devonport constituency, given I've got family there. It looks marginal and the Tory Oliver Colvile won it by a small margin. What sort of swing would Labour need to get the seat back?

[You kip if you want to...]

John Denham's retirement in the very marginal Southampton Itchen should make a competitive and open contest.

Any inroads in places like this for the Liberals will be struck down by the fact that the Liberals aren't at 24% anymore...

[YL]

Child poverty mapped by parliamentary constituency, from the Guardian

Predictably, most of the constituencies with low figures are Tory or Lib Dem, Nick Clegg's seat being lowest of all; the Labour seat with the lowest figure seems to be Hallam's neighbour Penistone & Stocksbridge, followed by East Renfrewshire and Morley & Outwood.  Also predictably, the seats with the highest figures, which are mostly city centre seats like Manchester Central, are Labour except for Belfast West; the Lib Dem seats with the highest figures are Portsmouth South and Brent Central, and I think Clacton is the Tory seat with the highest figure.

[You kip if you want to...]

The big news tonight comes from Moodys. They've downgraded the credit rating.

With less significance, a UKIP MEP has defected to the Tories.

[Silent Hunter]

The big news tonight comes from Moodys. They've downgraded the credit rating.

All the cuts and the credit rating still gets downgraded. I though this government would deal with the deficit at huge social cost... and they can't even do the former.

[MaxQue]

The big news tonight comes from Moodys. They've downgraded the credit rating.

All the cuts and the credit rating still gets downgraded. I though this government would deal with the deficit at huge social cost... and they can't even do the former.

Well, the press release doesn't complain about cuts. It's mainly than the economy is shrinking and is showing no hint than it will go back in the other direction soon.

Which, in my opinion, is due to the cuts.

[YL]

With less significance, a UKIP MEP has defected to the Tories.

I know that parties often get a bit rude about defectors, but Nigel Farage on this one goes a bit further than usual:

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(Via the Grauniad.)

[MaxQue]

Nothing unusual for Farage there, I think.

[DC Al Fine]

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I'm not sure Stalinist is an epithet I'd use for Farage.

[You kip if you want to...]

[afleitch]

Cardinal O'Brien caught being a hypocritical gobsh!te.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That is the technical term, I understand.

Though actually what's been alleged is worse than that; full on power abuse creeper creep.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Related story being that of Lord Rennard, of course. A story that has the added... er... 'bonus'... of Baron Groper of Wavertree looking very much the type, so to speak.

[bore]

I suppose this is yet another example of it being very difficult to tell when there is something dodgy about someone. Just a day ago on the vatican election thread I said how when I, and people I knew had spoken to him he seemed quite nice. Similarly on another forum I frequent there was someone who once had lunch with Pistorius who had raved about what a nice guy he was.  I guess to be able to hide these sort of thing for decades you have to be good at projecting a different public persona.

Obviously if its all true he should be imprisoned by the state and punished by the church- as well as providing yet more evidence that the most vicious homophobes can be in the closet, but we should be very careful about accepting these allegations as gospel.

[afleitch]

Cardinal O’Brien has stepped down which probably adds fuel to the fire. Given that he is in effect, the titular head of the ‘Scotland for Marriage’ campaign, this is a good day for the equal marriage campaign.

[bore]

That was very quick.

[afleitch]

I can safely say now that it had been rumoured for a while. He is not the first or in any way will be the last senior Catholic in Scotland to whom these rumours apply (but that’s not for this forum) The Catholic Church in Scotland is particularly vicious on the matter of gays in comparison to the church elsewhere for these very reasons; essentially old closeted self loathing gays who exercise power in a rather insular part of the worldwide Church.

Of course it continues, perhaps with a lesser degree of venom, in the lower echelons of the Church too; my own former parish priest was romantically linked with a female parishioner and several priests including one a few parishes along are regulars on the Glasgow gay scene. It’s secretive, but at times an unashamed life that priests have and I don’t blame them. The idea that they are on the whole celibate is wishful thinking. Everyone has a sexual side to them. In the times when Scotland was not as tolerant as she is now then for homosexual men it was a refuge from society and fortunately society has changed for the better while these men have been shut away. It leads to frustration or in worse cases open resentment. The LGBT community is surprisingly over tolerant in shielding political and religious hypocrites who exercise power or preach animosity towards us.

Scotland does not on the surface appear to have the same problems that the Church in Ireland does in part because the Church has never exercised any real power or worked in coercion with the state; quite the opposite in fact. However it does not mean that abusive incidents have not occurred in areas where they have had authority. I am personally aware of one, though it did not happen to me which did affected people in my year at school. Whether that is ever raised (and time is running out) is a matter for them. Catholic are far too reticent when it comes to these things.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seems as though the Vatican essentially sacked him.

[afleitch]

Seems as though the Vatican essentially sacked him.

Which is fairly strong and may imply something to which we are not yet party to. He was due to resign in a few weeks and coincidentally cast his vote for Pope just before it. He did also make the news just the day before saying priests should be allowed to marry. The cynic in me thinks that may have created more problems than just the alleged man loving.