Last PPP had toomey up 4-6 pts, and Clinton will win the state by 4-6 pts.
IL 10 will be the bellweather, Dold would have to win to carry Kirk.
And then some. Also watch the 12th and 13th downstate (both St. Louis-area districts). They swung pretty hard right in 2014. If either of them goes blue, Kirk's probably done. The 12th in particular is a pretty decent indicator of what's going on statewide. Mike Bost beat the incumbent there by a slim margin last year as Bruce Rauner also won by a slim margin statewide.
