Clinton moves to defend Rust Belt blue states (MI/WI/PA/OH)

[KingSweden]

I agree that Wisconsin is a bad fit for Trump - the WoW counties are about as anti-Trump as you can get outside of Mormon country.  I do think conflating Michigan and Wisconsin is wrong, though.

Keep in mind, if Wisconsin and Michigan vote at the same margin, that would almost certainly mean Michigan *trended* Republican.  Michigan is a tougher battle for Republicans because Democrats have a bigger built-in advantage there than in Wisconsin, but I think Trump will do well relative to other Republicans in Michigan.  I'd have to see polls post Trump-surge (after Indiana primary) to see where he is in Michigan then, but I think Trump will be able to keep the margin of loss down to 5-7% or so, assuming the national margins have improved (as is reflected in recent polling).

Looking at the data alone for Michigan, it seems the best for Trump compared to Wisconsin, but still don't think that's saying much. However, Trump at least polled tied/+ twice there, even if by the same pollster. Demographic changes definitely gives MI an edge over WI, at least for the 2012-2016 period.

Trump is going to need to really fight (no being cheap this time, either) for these states. It's not going to be easy, even if he really begins to unload the insults and conspiracies. He's screwing up / making his own image problems at a faster rate right now than Clinton, and if this circus of his drags on, he'll struggle just to keep up with Hillary as he continues trying to "downgrade" her image & appeal. She is well-known and well-defined, so I don't suspect it'll be a walk in the park for him.

OK, I think we agree then.  Unlike other supporters of Mr. Trump, I'm not particularly optimistic about November, though I do give Trump a better shot than he had on May 4.  The real issue in my mind for Trump is being able to hold the Romney coalition while expanding the base enough to win.  It will be tough sledding, but anything can happen.

This is the kind of reasoned, intelligent discussion that brought me to Atlas in the first place. Well written, both of you!

[DemPGH]

He won't win MI or certainly WI (I'd get ready to defend IA before WI, and if I were she I'd be all in on OH), but if he can land OH, it's going to be something like the 2000 map, in all likelihood, so the fact that she's getting ready to play defense in that region makes a lot of sense. This is realistically her last shot at the Presidency, so she's taking the high ground as she should. And if any GOPer could make PA close, it's Trump.

[IceSpear]

He won't win MI or certainly WI (I'd get ready to defend IA before WI, and if I were she I'd be all in on OH), but if he can land OH, it's going to be something like the 2000 map, in all likelihood, so the fact that she's getting ready to play defense in that region makes a lot of sense. This is realistically her last shot at the Presidency, so she's taking the high ground as she should. And if any GOPer could make PA close, it's Trump.

Someone like Kasich would have a far better shot at flipping PA than Trump.

[pppolitics]

Good idea.

If this is anything I've learned in this election so far, it's that Trump should NEVER be underestimated.

[indietraveler]

Wow, most of this fall will center around this region. These states and FL are the path to 270. If Trump can't break through in this region its game over. With all this map shake up talk it's really going to end up being about the same states we always talk about.

[MK]

The ghost of NAFTA comes home.     

[President Johnson]

Well, winning Michigan and Wisconsin is gonna be tough for TRUMP, but not impossible. But I give him a good chance to take Pennsylvania. Add now Ohio and Florida, and The Donald is in the White House. (Not even included Colorado, Virginia and Iowa, which he could also win).

[DemPGH]

He won't win MI or certainly WI (I'd get ready to defend IA before WI, and if I were she I'd be all in on OH), but if he can land OH, it's going to be something like the 2000 map, in all likelihood, so the fact that she's getting ready to play defense in that region makes a lot of sense. This is realistically her last shot at the Presidency, so she's taking the high ground as she should. And if any GOPer could make PA close, it's Trump.

Someone like Kasich would have a far better shot at flipping PA than Trump.

I don't think so. He'd get dominated in the east and in the western part of the state, which is where I hail from, he pretty much comes across as a boring corn belt guy who does not speak to things that people are worried about. I actually expected Kasich to do better than what he did, but he did awful. So awful that he was mostly just ignored. He was so ignored that he got to just hang around and have people say, "Oh, yeah, him! Hey, he's still running! What for?!" Hanging around didn't help him, the low key traditional approach didn't help him, etc. He'd sink fast against Hillary in PA.

[pbrower2a]

Even in a 400-EV blowout for Hillary Clinton, the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will not give as overwhelming margins for her as they gave Barack Obama in 2008.

Ohio will be close. It usually is except in electoral blowouts.

[StateBoiler]

Guys, I am exaggerating a bit.

But the fact remains. As I have told you so many times in the last ten or so months, Hillary has problems connecting with the working class voters and Trump has a strong appeal to them.
In fact, his appeal is not limited to just white working class.

That's why all these states are competitive and true battlegrounds and you will see that the general election map will change this time around, particularly if Trump manages to win the election.

I do think northern labor union voters are one group that'd be more inclined to vote for Trump. Not the labor union leaders, they'll stay Democratic supporters, talking rank-and-file.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The ghost of NAFTA comes home.     

How can something alive have a ghost?