Which state will mirror the popular vote?
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Author Topic: Which state will mirror the popular vote?  (Read 1406 times)
Jacobtm
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« on: July 21, 2011, 11:13:17 AM »
In 2008, Virginia was the state that most closely matched the popular vote. It seems unlikely that Virginia will play that role again.

Perhaps Iowa...
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2011, 12:28:06 PM »
I thought it was Colorado?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2011, 12:35:04 PM »
Quote from: Jacobtm on July 21, 2011, 11:13:17 AM
It seems unlikely that Virginia will play that role again.

Why not ?
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2011, 01:05:51 PM »

Less pro-Obama excitement, less anti-Republican sentiment from the Bush era means fewer Obama voters will turn out and Republican voters will probably be less down in the dumps.

That doesn't mean I think Obama will necessarily lose Va, but I do think Va will return to being more Republican than the popular vote.
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RIP Robert H Bork
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2011, 01:06:38 PM »
Quote from: Jacobtm on July 21, 2011, 01:05:51 PM

Less pro-Obama excitement, less anti-Republican sentiment from the Bush era means fewer Obama voters will turn out and Republican voters will probably be less down in the dumps.

That doesn't mean I think Obama will necessarily lose Va, but I do think Va will return to being more Republican than the popular vote.

...That's precisely what happened in 2008.
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2011, 01:11:17 PM »
« Edited: July 21, 2011, 01:16:04 PM by Jacobtm »
2008, rounded to the nearest whole number:

PV: D-53/R-46
VA: D-53/R-46
CO: D-54/R-45
IA: D-54/R-44

VA was the closest state, though SLIGHTLY more Republican than the PV.

In '04, Va gave Bush 3 points more than his national average, Kerry 3 points less. in '08 Obama got 52.6 in Va vs. 52.9 nationally, McCain got 46.3 vs. 45.6 nationally. The difference is negligible.

Perhaps with less Obama fever and less Bush hatred CO could be the national thermometer, since IA went a bit more D/less R than CO in '08.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2011, 01:33:28 PM »
Quote from: Jacobtm on July 21, 2011, 01:05:51 PM

Less pro-Obama excitement, less anti-Republican sentiment from the Bush era means fewer Obama voters will turn out and Republican voters will probably be less down in the dumps.

Why would that happen in Virginia but not in other states?
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2011, 02:02:25 PM »
Of course those things will be nationwide factors, I imagine they'll rob Obama of 1-2 points nationally, though it won't be evenly distributed.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2011, 11:17:02 PM »
North Carolina
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King
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« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2011, 11:55:06 PM »
Depends on the opponent.  I'm guessing either North Carolina or Ohio.
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Free Palestine
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« Reply #10 on: July 22, 2011, 01:11:38 AM »
Utah
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Napoleon
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« Reply #11 on: July 22, 2011, 02:04:18 AM »
Pencil-vania
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #12 on: July 22, 2011, 03:33:05 AM »
Quote from: Lief on July 21, 2011, 01:33:28 PM
Quote from: Jacobtm on July 21, 2011, 01:05:51 PM

Less pro-Obama excitement, less anti-Republican sentiment from the Bush era means fewer Obama voters will turn out and Republican voters will probably be less down in the dumps.

Why would that happen in Virginia but not in other states?
^^
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Gustaf
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« Reply #13 on: July 22, 2011, 04:03:10 AM »
Virginia seems to have been trending towards the Democrats for some time.

The disucssion should probably start with states where the winning margin was within 5% of the national margin. Those are, from most Republican to most Democrat:

Florida
Ohio
Virginia

Nation

Colorado
Iowa
New Hampshire
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
(Nevada, narrowly outside the range)
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #14 on: July 22, 2011, 09:07:24 AM »
Depends. If the race is close and includes Mitt Romney, then I predict ... Michigan.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: July 22, 2011, 09:36:07 AM »
Ohio
Colorado
Virginaia
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