Rate TX-28

[Woody]

In light of recent news.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think he still wins because both GOP candidates in the runoff don’t have enough resources to be competitive at the moment.

[Minnesota Mike]

Honestly Likely D.  The leading Republican, Jay Furman, who got 45% in the first round is an ultra conservative white guy who is fringe even for Texas Republicans. The other Republican in the runoff is Lazaro Garza Jr. who received 27% of the vote in the primary and who had a grand total of $24K in the bank as of March 31. Even with an indictment hanging over his head Cuellar is still favored.

[Progressive Pessimist]

What a range of votes! Apparently this race could be safe R to likely D.

I'm going to go with tilt D.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Likely/Safe D --> Lean R due to complications replacing Cuellar on the ballot.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

In 2022 it looks like nearly every statewide d carried the seat so I doubt it flips unless Cuellar stays in the ballot

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Likely/Safe D --> Lean R due to complications replacing Cuellar on the ballot.

This is where I am. I don't see Cuellar dropping/ being replaced. This is a district Democrats should win and partisanship may carry the day but the district isn't blue enough that Cuellar can survive a significant underperformance 

If the GOP wins it is a two year rental

[ProgressiveModerate]

Likely D --> Tilt D.

I think some are overreacting a little bit, especially in this type of district where you have a lot of low propensity voters who vote for Cueller because he's familiar. It really depends on how effectively Rs can attack Cueller with this enough to destroy his brand.

[Tekken_Guy]

Likely/Safe D --> Lean R due to complications replacing Cuellar on the ballot.

This is where I am. I don't see Cuellar dropping/ being replaced. This is a district Democrats should win and partisanship may carry the day but the district isn't blue enough that Cuellar can survive a significant underperformance 

If the GOP wins it is a two year rental

Is Trump on track to carry the district?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Likely/Safe D --> Lean R due to complications replacing Cuellar on the ballot.

This is where I am. I don't see Cuellar dropping/ being replaced. This is a district Democrats should win and partisanship may carry the day but the district isn't blue enough that Cuellar can survive a significant underperformance 

If the GOP wins it is a two year rental

Is Trump on track to carry the district?

Considering no statewide Republican did in 2022 I doubt it