Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Hatman 🍁]

It's true that most Ontarians aren't ideological. They respond to populist rhetoric, which is how Mike Harris got elected, and is why Andrea Horwath is trying to use it.

[mileslunn]

It's true that most Ontarians aren't ideological. They respond to populist rhetoric, which is how Mike Harris got elected, and is why Andrea Horwath is trying to use it.

I also noticed each of the leaders in hard hats too.  I wonder if they are trying to copy Christy Clark as she did that and it worked in her case.

[RogueBeaver]

Why shouldn't progressives switch from Grit to Dipper? Ipsos numbers are close enough that the Dippers could move into 2nd.

BECAUSE TIM HUDAK IS MIKE HARRIS OH NOES

Actually cutting deeper & much faster than Harris. Many planks and personnel similar to CSR.

Itineraries.

Hudak: 10% personal income tax cut once back in black.

[Hash]

A Hudak government is going to be absolutely atrocious, although that's been painfully obvious for years now. The guy is a lunatic.

[You kip if you want to...]

Interesting that last time round when the election was called, people swung behind McGuinty when faced with a possible Hudak government, but this time it's different.

[mileslunn]

Interesting that last time round when the election was called, people swung behind McGuinty when faced with a possible Hudak government, but this time it's different.

To early to tell.  Last time around, no one really knew that well what Hudak's ideology is, whereas this time around its much clearer so he could scare off some Red Tories who voted for him last time around.  At the same time despite the hiccups he at least has a clear platform whereas last time around no one really knew what a Hudak government would do.  Probably the biggest thing that could work in Hudak's favour is McGuinty was fairly centrist whereas Wynne has clearly swung to the left so I could either see many centrist voters going PC if they run a decent campaign or more likely just not voting at all.  In fact part of the reason I suspect the centre is vacated is all campaigns expect a low turnout so it becomes who can best motivate their base rather than appeal to the middle.

[mileslunn]

A Hudak government is going to be absolutely atrocious, although that's been painfully obvious for years now. The guy is a lunatic.

Depends on one's point of view.

If you are on the left, then yes Hudak would be a disaster as on most issues he stands apart from pretty much everything they believe in.

If in the centre, he probably seems a bit extreme and ideological, but most also realize the current out of control spending cannot go on forever and something needs to be done about the deficit.  The biggest problem here is many would argue it should be a mix of tax hikes and spending cuts, not solely spending cuts combined with tax cuts.

If on the right, you might find him a bit dorky or worry he is the wrong person to get the message out, but you are at least likely to agree with his views.

[Holmes]

The PC candidate in Timmins-James Bay doesn't even speak French...

Oy vey.

If he wants to win, he needs to not only carry Timmins, but by a large margin. Everything outside of the city is francophone and native.

That said, people are tired of Gilles. I don't blame them. He's a good MP, but it's been 24 years. He'll get just under 50%.

[mileslunn]

The PC candidate in Timmins-James Bay doesn't even speak French...

Oy vey.

If he wants to win, he needs to not only carry Timmins, but by a large margin. Everything outside of the city is francophone and native.

That said, people are tired of Gilles. I don't blame them. He's a good MP, but it's been 24 years. He'll get just under 50%.

Timmins-James Bay is not a riding I could realistically see the PCs winning anyways so while its not a good idea to appoint a unilingual one, they have no chance at winning here.  If their candidate in Ottawa Orleans or Glengarry-Prescott-Russell is unilingual, then it could be problematic as those have large Francophone populations and are ones where the Tories have a realistic chance at winning.

[Krago]

New Forum Poll:  Liberal 38%, PC 33%, NDP 21%, Green 5%

New (insane) Forum Seat Projection:  Liberal 68, PC 26, NDP 13

[RogueBeaver]

LOL Forum.

[Hatman 🍁]

The PC candidate in Timmins-James Bay doesn't even speak French...

Oy vey.

If he wants to win, he needs to not only carry Timmins, but by a large margin. Everything outside of the city is francophone and native.

That said, people are tired of Gilles. I don't blame them. He's a good MP, but it's been 24 years. He'll get just under 50%.

Charlie Angus doesn't speak French though.

[mileslunn]

New Forum Poll:  Liberal 38%, PC 33%, NDP 21%, Green 5%

New (insane) Forum Seat Projection:  Liberal 68, PC 26, NDP 13

The raw numbers and it's actually 35 PC, not 33 seem reasonable especially with the focus on Hudak and the negative one. The seat projections though are way off. A 3 point lead won't result in a landslide majority like that. Also I would be interested in seeing the regional numbers. It seems both the Liberals and Hudak are not well liked so whichever is getting the most attention in the polls suffers. While still early, neither party seems to be able to inspire enough to realistically get a majority if you ask me.

[DL]

I think i have figured out the formula for Forum's bizarre seat projections in Ontario. Take the the results of the 2011 election and then apply a uniform province-wide swing - then arbitrarily add 15 seats to the Liberal total and subtract about 7 from the PCs and 8 from the NDP and there you have it.

Today's Forum poll would indicate a popular vote split that is almost identical to the results of the 2011 election. Can someone tell me how the OLP could possibly go from 53 seats to 68 seats with no change at all in the popular vote from 2011? Thought so.

[You kip if you want to...]

Today's Forum poll would indicate a popular vote split that is almost identical to the results of the 2011 election. Can someone tell me how the OLP could possibly go from 53 seats to 68 seats with no change at all in the popular vote from 2011? Thought so.

Dippers voting tactically on a scale unknown to man.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone know what Ipsos uses as their region definitions?

I emailed the vice president. He replied that 'Sam will tell you' which I presume will happen in a business day or two

Did you ever get a response to this?

[RogueBeaver]

You guys think there's been a shift over the past few days? Or just Forum being itself. Hard to tell because the polls are such a clusterf[inks], unlike here in QC where they all moved together.

[Citizen Hats]

Anyone know what Ipsos uses as their region definitions?

I emailed the vice president. He replied that 'Sam will tell you' which I presume will happen in a business day or two

Did you ever get a response to this?

They break ontario by postal code

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone know what Ipsos uses as their region definitions?

I emailed the vice president. He replied that 'Sam will tell you' which I presume will happen in a business day or two

Did you ever get a response to this?

They break ontario by postal code

They have more regions than postal codes regions...

Am I right to assume that when they say 416 and 905 they are referring to the area codes, and the rest is divided by postal code (eg "Central" is everything in L that is not in the 905)?

[Hash]

Forum can't do seat predictions for sh**t and whoever does them needs to be executed asap, but it isn't that bad of a poster. It's record isn't perfect or great, but I don't see it as any worse than most pollsters (and probably better than a few of them). I don't see what's up with the weird hateboners for them.

[Citizen Hats]

Anyone know what Ipsos uses as their region definitions?

I emailed the vice president. He replied that 'Sam will tell you' which I presume will happen in a business day or two

Did you ever get a response to this?

They break ontario by postal code

They have more regions than postal codes regions...

Am I right to assume that when they say 416 and 905 they are referring to the area codes, and the rest is divided by postal code (eg "Central" is everything in L that is not in the 905)?

What I mean is that the regions are defined by postal codes. I've sent you the file on FB

It appears that 416 and 905 are used in their vernacular sense, (somewhat)

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone know what Ipsos uses as their region definitions?

I emailed the vice president. He replied that 'Sam will tell you' which I presume will happen in a business day or two

Did you ever get a response to this?

They break ontario by postal code

They have more regions than postal codes regions...

Am I right to assume that when they say 416 and 905 they are referring to the area codes, and the rest is divided by postal code (eg "Central" is everything in L that is not in the 905)?

What I mean is that the regions are defined by postal codes. I've sent you the file on FB

It appears that 416 and 905 are used in their vernacular sense, (somewhat)

Oh, I thought they used the first character of the postal code rather the first three.

[Hatman 🍁]

lololol:



Ipsos' polling "regions". Also note the Toronto exclave in Vaughan

[Citizen Hats]

The bizarre world of  how Ipsos cuts up Ontario (a bit clearer than Hatman's)

[Hatman 🍁]

Sorry, I'm still getting the hang of GIS.