LA-06-SurveyUSA: Cazayoux favored in special election

[Kevinstat]

Any exit poll results?  The polls closed about 10 minutes ago (at the time I originally posted this), assuming Loisianna uses (Central) Daylight Time in the summer.  Otherwise there are about 52 minutes left.

[Kevinstat]

Interesting how numbers were in in the CD-6 race before any precincts had reported, and how that's the case in some parishes now.  Do precincts report results in smaller bundles in Louisiana, or is it likely that all of the precincts that have really reported have reported in full, and the number of precincts reporting listed on the Election Returns Database was/is simply wrong?

[Kevinstat]

Republican "Steve" Scalise kicking butt in CD-1, as expected:

116 16.48% Gilda Reed  - 
579 82.24% "Steve" Scalise  - 
8 1.14% R. A. "Skip" Galan  - 
1 .14% Anthony "Tony G" Gentile

0 of 505 precincts reporting

[Kevinstat]

U. S. Representative, 1st Congressional District
34 (6.7%) of 505 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
1,298 27.69% Gilda Reed  - 
3,281 69.99% "Steve" Scalise  - 
75 1.60% R. A. "Skip" Galan  - 
34 .73% Anthony "Tony G" Gentile  - 

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
44 (8.6%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
5,351 45.03% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
6,125 51.55% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
53 .45% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
303 2.55% Ashley Casey  - 
50 .42% Randall T. Hayes

[Kevinstat]

It's looking like a Republican hold.  Jenkins up by 7.33%, give or take .01%.  Not callable yet though I don't think.

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
54 (10.5%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
5,992 44.53% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
6,978 51.86% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
61 .45% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
372 2.76% Ashley Casey  - 
53 .39% Randall T. Hayes  - 

[Kevinstat]

6,688    41.16%   "Don" Cazayoux
8,978   55.26%   Louis "Woody" Jenkins

With 64 (12.5%) of 512 precincts reporting.  Not good for Cazayoux.

[Kevinstat]

It's looking like a Republican hold.  Jenkins up by 7.33%, give or take .01%.  Not callable yet though I don't think.

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
54 (10.5%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
5,992 44.53% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
6,978 51.86% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
61 .45% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
372 2.76% Ashley Casey  - 
53 .39% Randall T. Hayes  - 

Woah, woah, woah.. hold on. Neither Baton Rouge Parish has begun to report yet. It's still way too early to call..

Who's the exitable horse now?

[Kevinstat]

Jenkins carrying East Baton Rouge right now, but with only 2 of 314 precincts reporting.

I'll admit I was hasty pre-calling the race for Jenkins though.

[Kevinstat]

U. S. Representative, 1st Congressional District
143 (28.3%) of 505 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
3,201 25.45% Gilda Reed  -  
9,111 72.44% "Steve" Scalise  -  
179 1.42% R. A. "Skip" Galan  -  
87 .69% Anthony "Tony G" Gentile  -  

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
178 (34.8%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
16,374 43.90% "Don" Cazayoux  -  
19,337 51.84% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  -  
190 .51% Peter J. Aranyosi  -  
1,250 3.35% Ashley Casey  -  
149 .40% Randall T. Hayes  -  

[Kevinstat]

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
200 (39.1%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
17,684 44.34% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
20,495 51.39% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
211 .53% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
1,328 3.33% Ashley Casey  - 
162 .41% Randall T. Hayes  - 

[Kevinstat]

Jenkins is carrying East Baton Rouge Parish.

[Kevinstat]

Past the 50% mark (in terms of precincts reporting, not necessarilly votes):

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[Kevinstat]

Anyone know what Ashley Casey's support block is, other than voters who don't care about wasting their vote?  Her Politics1.com website link goes to a Green Party congressional candidate in New York State.  If Cazayoux gains some ground but the final result is within 3.8% either way, her vote could be greater than the margin of victory.

[Kevinstat]

cazayoux slightly gaining

More than slightly.

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
307 (60.0%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
28,350 46.44% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
29,841 48.88% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
290 .48% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
2,323 3.81% Ashley Casey  - 
244 .40% Randall T. Hayes  - 

[Kevinstat]

Cazayoux now leads in East Baton Rouge with 121 of 314 in. If current patterns hold, Cazayoux wins the seat with over 50%.

Thanks for the info, Verily.

It will be interesting to see my party's candidate win a come from behind in the count to win, even though I know the votes were cast in the same range of time in every precinct.  Or were any polls kept open longer than usual.  That has happened in some Presidential primaries this year, although perhaps it won't in a special Congressional election where turnout is likely much lighter and running out of ballots is less likely (unless they greatly underestimated turnout and skimped on printing ballots).

[Kevinstat]

All precincts outstanding (at least according to the parish results page) are in East Baton Rouge Parish (193 of 314 outstanding) except and 1 (of 63) in Livingston Parish.  Cazayoux doesn't have a majority in East Baton Rouge so the current pattern doesn't suggest he will overall, although it all comes down to where the remaining precincts are from.

Overall:

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
318 (62.1%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
29,511 46.95% "Don" Cazayoux  -  
30,425 48.40% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  -  
297 .47% Peter J. Aranyosi  -  
2,376 3.78% Ashley Casey  -  
248 .39% Randall T. Hayes  -  

[Kevinstat]

Jenkins now leading by 283 votes in East Baton Rouge.  Still 1 precinct outstanding in Livingston Parish according to http://electionresults.sos.louisiana.gov/05030814519067.htm .

Overall:

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
353 (68.9%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
32,400 46.22% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
34,428 49.11% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
313 .45% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
2,692 3.84% Ashley Casey  - 
268 .38% Randall T. Hayes  - 

[Kevinstat]

The last Livingston Parish came in, pushing Jenkins's margin over 3% (49.23% to 46.11% with 354 of 512 precincts reporting).

[Kevinstat]

Outside East Baton Rouge:

17,986 (50.78%) Louis "Woody" Jenkins
16,068 (45.37%) "Don" Cazayoux
1,003 (2.83%) Ashley Casey
212 (0.60%) Peter J. Aranyosi
149 (0.42%) Randall T. Hayes

[Kevinstat]

Jenkins back in the lead by 1.05% (yeah I know you beat me HardRCafe)

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
439 (85.7%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
41,527 47.15% "Don" Cazayoux  -  
42,449 48.20% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  -  
383 .43% Peter J. Aranyosi  -  
3,386 3.84% Ashley Casey  -  
328 .37% Randall T. Hayes  -  

[Kevinstat]

Wow, what a turnaround!  Probably a bunch of heavily black precincts came in (not a knock, just an explanation).

[Kevinstat]

Not that it matters now in projecting who will win (that's crystal clear now), but since I created the spreadsheet and was planning to post it...

In East Baton Rouge, with 4 (1.27%) of 314 precincts remaining:

33,244 (51.37%) "Don" Cazayoux
28.296 (43.72%) Louis "Woody" Jenkins
2,702 (4.17%) Ashley Casey
248 (0.38%) Randall T. Hayes
231 (0.36%) Peter J. Aranyosi

[Kevinstat]

Cayazoux carried every parish or portion thereof in the district except for Livington, Ascension and (narrowly) East Feliciana.

[Kevinstat]

You don't think Gilda Reed is going to win that last precinct by 23,670 votes?  What ails you? 

[Kevinstat]

Jenkins must have carried the last precinct (carried heavily by Kerry in 2004 according to Alcon) to come in, as Cazayoux's lead is down to 2,817 now.  At this rate Cazayoux's final margin would go down to 2,178 (based on Alcon's 3,030 margin for Cazayoux with four precincts remaining).