EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

All Austrian parties have now selected their lists and frontrunners for the EP elections:

ÖVP: Othmar Karas

SPÖ: Eugen Freund

FPÖ: Andreas Mölzer & Harald Vilimsky (The FPÖ has 2 frontrunners, but Mölzer is 1. on the list and Vilimsky 2. on the list, but if the FPÖ wins the election Lord Voldemort Vilimsky will be their candidate for the Austrian EU-commissioner, while Mölzer said he wants to remain a simple MEP)

Greens: Ulrike Lunacek

NEOS: Angelika Mlinar

BZÖ: Ulrike Haider

Europa Anders ("A different Europe"): Martin Ehrenhauser

REKOS: Ewald Stadler

...

Other parties, such as the Team Stronach and Hans-Peter Martin have not yet decided if they'll run or not.

The party "EU-STOP" needs to collect 2600 signatures to be on the ballot (the BZÖ too).

[Diouf]

Two recent Romanian polls by IRES



Seat distribution with newest poll (compared to 2009):

USD (S&D) 16 seats (+5)
PNL (ALDE) 8 (+3)
PDL (EPP) 3 (-7)
PMP (probably EPP, Băsescu's new party) 3 (+2*)
UDMR (EPP) 1 (-2)
PP-DD (member of EUDemocrats) 1 (new)
FC (EPP) 0 (=)
PRM (NI) 0 (-3)

* Counting Elena Băsescu in here.

[Tender Branson]

All Austrian parties have now selected their lists and frontrunners for the EP elections:

ÖVP: Othmar Karas

SPÖ: Eugen Freund

FPÖ: Andreas Mölzer & Harald Vilimsky (The FPÖ has 2 frontrunners, but Mölzer is 1. on the list and Vilimsky 2. on the list, but if the FPÖ wins the election Lord Voldemort Vilimsky will be their candidate for the Austrian EU-commissioner, while Mölzer said he wants to remain a simple MEP)

Greens: Ulrike Lunacek

NEOS: Angelika Mlinar

BZÖ: Ulrike Haider

Europa Anders ("A different Europe"): Martin Ehrenhauser

REKOS: Ewald Stadler

...

Other parties, such as the Team Stronach and Hans-Peter Martin have not yet decided if they'll run or not.

The party "EU-STOP" needs to collect 2600 signatures to be on the ballot (the BZÖ too).

Infographic that I have found:

[Andrea]

New poll for Italy


PD 28.5
FI 23.2
M5S 22.7
Tsipras 6.9
Lega 4.6
Brothers of Italy 3.6
NCD 3.0
UDC 1.8
Civic Choice 1.1

[Zanas]

Poland : Homo homini for Do Rzeczy, 2 March 2014

Civic Platform (EPP) 26 (15)
Polish People's Party (EPP) 6 (3)
Democratic Left Alliance (S&D) 17 (9)
PiS (Law and Justice) (ECR) 32 (19)
Poland Together (ECR) 3
Europa+ (Misc) 9 (5)
United Poland (?) 4
Congress of the new right (?) 2

Score (possible seat distribution)

[Zanas]

And Greece : Palmos Analysis

PASOK    ND    KKE    SYRIZA    XA     DIMAR    ANEL    
5.4         24.8    5.2    30.7    17.0    1.9            3.7

They also seem to have Laos polling 1.9 for some reason, and the Greens at 1.4.

That's 8 in Others btw.

XA's score seems outlierish from what we can see on general election polling nowadays. I don't know if the polling firm is any good though.

[Diouf]

Today Guy Verhofstadt and Bruno Tabacci, with a video greeting from Romano Prodi, presented a common Italian ALDE list called "La mia Europa" (My Europe). The current ECR MEP Christina Muscardini, Centro democratico, Fare per Fermare il declino, Radicali italiani, some remains of Italia dei Valori and (at least some parts of) Scelta Civica are among those taking part. I guess it wouldn't be complely impossible for this list to get above the 4 % threshold; this of course to some degree depends on whether they can get some relativelt high-profile names like Emma Bonino to stand.

Edit: It seems like the official name might be "Scelta Europea" (European Choice). At least that is the name used in the logo in this picture from the presentation.

[FredLindq]

Do you think that the centre-right in italay mig do the same i.e. alliance between FI, NCD, FDI and UCD?!

[Diouf]

Do you think that the centre-right in italay mig do the same i.e. alliance between FI, NCD, FDI and UCD?!

NCD is probably the main question as I'm fairly confident that the other small parties will join an FI-led list/alliance. Personal animosity between Alfano and Berlusconi could influence this. NCD are by no means sure to cross the 4 % threshold, but I'm not sure that they would like to bind themselves so close with Berlusconi so early.

The whole question of who will sit in the EPP could be interesting as well, but I guess that the EPP will just hear nothing, see nothing, and say nothing and welcome both NCD, FI and the smaller parties. If the EPP in some way rejects the FI, then they will have next to no chance of becoming the biggest group in the EP.

[FredLindq]

But now there is a 4 % threshold and UCD will no reach it on its own.

[Tender Branson]

The EP election in Austria has now been formally called by the government.

The election calendar is here:

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/europawahl/2014/files/Wahlkalender_EU_Wahl_2014_LETZTFASSUNG_mit_nderungen.pdf

Until April 11 at 5pm, parties that want to be on the ballot need to submit either the signatures of 3 MPs in the Austrian National Council to the federal election commission, or 1 signature of a Member of the European Parliament, or 2600 valid signatures of eligible Austrian voters.

Only the BZÖ and the minor party called EU-STOP would need to collect signatures, all other parties are either represented in the Austrian National Council or in the EP already.

[Diouf]

Danish poll by A&B Analysis for altinget.dk

DF (EFD) 23.3 % 3 seats
Social Democrats (S&D) 22.6 % 3 seats
Liberals (ALDE) 22.5 % 3 seats
Social Liberals (ALDE) 8.4 % 1 seat
People's movement against the EU (GUE-NGL) 8.3 % 1 seat
SF (Greens) 6.4 % 1 seat
Conservatives (EPP) 6.1 % 1 seat
Liberal Alliance (probably ECR) 2.4 % 0 seats

[Middle-aged Europe]

European election poll for Germany (Infratest dimap, 03/06)

CDU/CSU 40%
SPD 26%
Greens 11%
Left 7%
AfD 5%
FDP 4%

[EPG]

Danish poll by A&B Analysis for altinget.dk

DF (EFD) 23.3 % 3 seats
Social Democrats (S&D) 22.6 % 3 seats
Liberals (ALDE) 22.5 % 3 seats
Social Liberals (ALDE) 8.4 % 1 seat
People's movement against the EU (GUE-NGL) 8.3 % 1 seat
SF (Greens) 6.4 % 1 seat
Conservatives (EPP) 6.1 % 1 seat
Liberal Alliance (probably ECR) 2.4 % 0 seats

Wow. Has DF ever won a national election before?

Why are SF not GUE-NGL? Is not being far-left part of their identity?

[Diouf]

Danish poll by A&B Analysis for altinget.dk

DF (EFD) 23.3 % 3 seats
Social Democrats (S&D) 22.6 % 3 seats
Liberals (ALDE) 22.5 % 3 seats
Social Liberals (ALDE) 8.4 % 1 seat
People's movement against the EU (GUE-NGL) 8.3 % 1 seat
SF (Greens) 6.4 % 1 seat
Conservatives (EPP) 6.1 % 1 seat
Liberal Alliance (probably ECR) 2.4 % 0 seats

Wow. Has DF ever won a national election before?

Why are SF not GUE-NGL? Is not being far-left part of their identity?

Nope they have not. Their chances are pretty good this time, I reckon. The Liberals got a much worse lead candidate after the original candidate became pregnant, the Social Democrats are unpopular due to the government's policies, and everybody is talking about welfare tourism and child benefits for eastern europeans. Add to that an eloquent DF lead candidate who already received the highest number of personal votes the last time around and is a constant media presence.

Well, Ethelberth is quite right. No real green party ever emerged in Denmark, and instead SF managed to incorporate many members from the green movement, the peace movement and the feminist movement. Generally SF has moved in a more EU-positive direction since the Maastricht Treaty, and voted in favour of the Nice Treaty and the Lisbon Treaty. Whether the move to the Greens in the EP would have happened a term before or a term later depended a lot on the MEP. Pernille Frahm, who was elected in 1999, is a member of the hard left wing of the party, so she sat in the far-left group. In 2004, Margrethe Auken was the MEP and she belongs to the very EU-positive green fraction of the party, so she sat in the green group despite the fact that a small majority in the party's executive committee wanted the party to remain in the far-left group. She especially said that she could not stand the idea of sitting with someone like the Czech communists. In 2009, Auken was the candidate again and this time there was no discussion and she naturally sat in the green group. At the party conference a few weeks ago, a big majority in the party voted for SF to join the European Green Party.

[EPG]

Thank you.

I guess the combined ALDE vote is still bigger than EFD, small "hurrah".

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll (click right for big version, EU poll on top of the page):



Basically the same thing as before: 3-way battle for 1st place, 2-way battle for 4th place.

The BZÖ has not gained a lot so far (2%), even with the entry of Jörg Haider-daughter Ulrike as frontrunner.

The election alliance between Communists, Pirates and Wandel called "Europa Anders" (A different Europe) is included for the first time in a poll and has just 1%.

[Tender Branson]

Juncker was just elected the EVP frontrunner at their convention in Dublin.

Juncker got 382 delegate votes, Barnier got 245.

[Tender Branson]

On May 8, the ZDF (main German TV broadcaster) and the ORF (main Austrian TV broadcaster) will host a joint TV debate between Jean-Claude Juncker, the EVP frontrunner, and Martin Schulz, the PSE frontrunner.

Ingrid Thurnher (ORF) and Peter Frey (ZDF) will moderate the debate which will be held in Berlin at the ZDF headquarters.

Juncker and Schulz have already agreed to participate in the debate:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The debate style will be a mix of classical debate, with questions by the moderators and town-hall format, in which people from the audience (or via TV-screen) ask questions to the candidates.

[Diouf]

Today the Liberal Alliance finally presented their lead candidate for the EU elections. The 36-year old no-name Christina Egelund. She is the leader of the party branch in Northern Jutland and runs a holiday park. In all likelihood, she won't be elected, but the party could play a somewhat significant role anyway. If they can agree on an electoral pact with the Liberals and the Conservatives, then they might just bring one of these parties an additional seat. However, especially the Liberals might not agree to that as the Liberal Alliance have changed their EU attitudes markedly since 2009 where the parties did form an electoral pact. On the other hand, the two parties, along with DF, would then lose a fair amount of votes which would go to waste.

The Liberal Alliance's main points on EU are: yes to free trade, no to regulation, keep sovereignty of economic policy so no to euro, fiscal pact and banking union, no benefits for foreigners, including EU nationals, before living and working in Denmark for five years, and yes to the unified patent court.

[Velasco]

Poll for the EP elections in Catalonia (GESOP/El Periódico):

CiU 19.9%; ERC 19.9%; PSC 18.9%; ICV-EUiA 10.6%; PP 12.5%; C's 5.8%; UPyD 3.5%; Others 6.9%.

CiU will run in coalition with PNV and CC; ERC will run in its own; PSC=PSOE; ICV-EUiA=IU and C's is the main component of the Citizen's Movement.

http://estaticos.elperiodico.com/resources/pdf/8/8/1394316884388.pdf?_ga=1.21590971.123326214.1394363872

[swl]

On May 8, the ZDF (main German TV broadcaster) and the ORF (main Austrian TV broadcaster) will host a joint TV debate between Jean-Claude Juncker, the EVP frontrunner, and Martin Schulz, the PSE frontrunner.

Good, it seems like several countries are not very keen on supporting any of them as president of the Commission. Hopefully a debate on the ZDF and the ORF will create a bit of pressure from the German and Austrian publics.

I am still pro-EU but if next Commission president is not one of the candidate nominated by the parties I will be very dissapointed...

[EPG]

The problem, for the EPP in particular, is that many of the best EC President candidates are serving heads of government, so they can't be seen to seek or campaign for another office from now until May.

In the English-speaking world, Juncker is associated with left-wing Eurofederalism (relative to the typical English-speaking country) and Schulz is a non-entity. Neither seems the right choice to keep the UK in the union.

[Middle-aged Europe]

On May 8, the ZDF (main German TV broadcaster) and the ORF (main Austrian TV broadcaster) will host a joint TV debate between Jean-Claude Juncker, the EVP frontrunner, and Martin Schulz, the PSE frontrunner.

Ingrid Thurnher (ORF) and Peter Frey (ZDF) will moderate the debate which will be held in Berlin at the ZDF headquarters.

Juncker and Schulz have already agreed to participate in the debate:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The debate style will be a mix of classical debate, with questions by the moderators and town-hall format, in which people from the audience (or via TV-screen) ask questions to the candidates.

I'm a bit indifferent about that. On one hand, it's good that the European election has besome important enough to hold televised debates.  On the other hand, I'm a bit annoyed that the media is staging it as a Americanized duel between two candidates/parties again while disregarding other parties.

Anyway, here is the latest European election poll for Germany (INSA):

CDU/CSU 38%
SPD 26%
Greens 9.5%
Left 8.5%
AfD 7.5%
FDP 3%

[Franknburger]

On May 8, the ZDF (main German TV broadcaster) and the ORF (main Austrian TV broadcaster) will host a joint TV debate between Jean-Claude Juncker, the EVP frontrunner, and Martin Schulz, the PSE frontrunner.

Ingrid Thurnher (ORF) and Peter Frey (ZDF) will moderate the debate which will be held in Berlin at the ZDF headquarters.

Juncker and Schulz have already agreed to participate in the debate:

I'm a bit indifferent about that. On one hand, it's good that the European election has besome important enough to hold televised debates.  On the other hand, I'm a bit annoyed that the media is staging it as a Americanized duel between two candidates/parties again while disregarding other parties.

"A bit annoyed" would be understating my feeling. Given that both ORF and ZDF are public networks, I am actually not sure that this is constitutional (at least as long as they don't also host a 'minor parties debate'). But I guess we will find out about that soon enough, somebody is surely going to court...