EP elections 2014

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A prediction for Germany:

First, let's have a look at the differences between the 2009 EP and federal elections:

                           EP                  Fed               Diff.
CDU / CSU          37.9               33.8              -4.1
SPD                    20.8               23.0              +2.2
FDP                    11.0               14.6              +3.6
Grüne, BP           12.3               10.8              -1.5
Linke                   7.9                11.9              +4.0

FW, REP,ödp      3.5                   0.7               -2.8
NPD, DVU           0.4                   1.6              +1.2
Piraten, Tier       2.0                   2.6              +0.6
Others*             4,2                   1.0              -3.2

Others include (parties for) Family, Seniors, 50+, Bible-true Christians, etc.

So we should in general expect underperformance of current polling for SPD & Linke (lower turnout, more votes for small parties), CDU gaining at the expense of FDP (no loan votes for EU parliament), over-performance of Greens (strong-turnout voters), and right / extreme-right and smaller other parties.

I furthermore expect FW to take up quite some euro-sceptic votes, primarily from CDU / CSU, which will contain the Pirate vote. The far-right vote will still be depressed by the NSU terrorism issue.

As such, here is my prediction (current polling in brackets):

CDU / CSU  (40)                38   38 seats
SPD (27)                           24   24 seats
Grüne (15)                        17   17 seats
Linke (7)                             5    4-5 seats (depends on others/ far-right)
FDP (5)                               2    2 seats

FW  (1-2)                            5   5 seats
Far Right                             2   2 seats if joint NPD / DVU list, otherwise 1 seat
Pirates (2-3)                       3   2 Seats Pirates, 1 Seat Tierschutz (animal rights)
Others                                4   1 Seat Family, 1 Seat Pensioners                                

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I see the FDP at 5 seats at least, FW at 2-3. Otherwise, this prediction looks plausible.

Of course, we don't know if the new Euro-sceptic "Alternative für Deutschland" will gain some traction until 2014. In this case, the picture could look quite differently.

Current FDP polling is around 2%. Most pollsters "add in" CDU loan votes and show the FDP at 5%. Without the 5% threshold, we will most likely not see such loan votes for the EP.

However, I agree that it is in general a bit early for projections now. The federal election in autumn will completely change the situation, probably putting the SPD in government and the FDP in opposition, which may help the FDP to regain some strength on the expense of the governing coalition.

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Getting back to the "populist right" discussion a bit further up: The eurosceptic "Allianz für Deutschland" is currently polling around 3% for the upcoming German federal election. I could imagine them reaching at least that much, probably quite a bit more, in the 2014 EP elections, especially if they manage to turn that election into a kind of plebiscite on the EU and the Euro. As the 5% threshold has been abolished for EP elections, that would give them at least 3, maybe up to 6/7 seats.

AvD will definitely not join any EP grouping that includes the FN, Golden Dawn and Jobbik (that would kill them instantly in Germany, considering the traditional ties of the NPD to these parties), and might also have issues with the Austrian FPÖ (though most likely not with Team Stronach, should the latter make it into the EP). They should, however, not have much problems with current EFD members.
So, in any calculation for the new EP (no ideas where the forecast is standing right now), you may include one additional member state and 3+ seats from Germany for EFD, or any similar grouping that is to be built without FN.

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The AfD yesterday held their party congress on the EP election. As expected, economist Bernd Lucke will head the list. Their no. 2 will be Hans-Olaf Henkel, former president of the Association of German Industries. Following months of internal struggle, the outcome is regarded as victory of the moderate wing over right-wing extremists.

it will be interesting to watch how that works out electorally:  Lucke and Henkel are both Hamburg-based protestants, who might appeal to East Germans, but could have a hard time in Cathoilc southern Germany. As president of the Association of German Industries, Henkel had been known for union-bashing, and is probably not the best choice if you want to appeal to disaffected blue collar voters. The ticket should  primarily target fiscally and economically conservative voters, i.e. potential FDP and northern German CDU electorate.

1940-boorn H.O. Henkel is actually a pretty oscillating personality. Generally of the Steinbrück "talk first, then contain the damage" type, he loves to polarise and place himself at the centre of controversies. He is, however, anything but a social conservative. In his memoirs, he talks about several parties in 1960s Hamburg where he met the Beatles (he was a good friend of the hairdresser and photographer who provided the Beatles with their famous moptop haircut), and there is sufficient account from other sources showing that these parties were anything but drug-free. Henkel openly promotes equal rights for LGBT. As former IBM senior executive, he has lived many years in the US and in Paris, and, while euro-sceptic, is decidedly pro-American and pro-European. He used to be CEO of IBM Europe, and was member of the supervisory board of Bayer, Continental, Daimler Aerospace, and a number of other German and Swiss companies.  If you look for an international comparison, Mitt Romney is probably the character Henkel is coming most closely to.

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Hamburg:
CDU 26 (down from 29.7 last time, down from 32.1 in the federal election)
SPD 35 (up from 25.4 last time, up from 32.4 in the federal election)
Greens 16 (down from 20.5 last time, up from 12.7 in the federal election)
Left 9 (up from 6.7 last time, up from 8.8 in the federal election)
FDP 6 (down from 11.1 last time, up from 4.8 in the federal election)
AfD 4 (down from 4.2 in the federal election)
Others 4 (down from 6.6 last time, down from 5.0 in the federal election)

So my take:
CDU clearly too low in Hamburg, CSU slightly too high in Bavaria,
SPD too high,
Greens might be realistic for an EP election,
Left a bit exaggerated in Hamburg, a bit underestimated in Bavaria,
FDP too high in Hamburg, too low in Bavaria,
AfD internally consistent, but a bit surprising,
the numbers about "others" are quite consistent, but maybe a bit low for an EP election.

The Hamburg numbers look in general o.k. to me. In the 2011 state election (57% turnout), the CDU received 21.9%. Their 2013 Federal Election result was extraordinary well and owed to Angela Merkel - in a generic election, like for the EP, they should come in considerably lower. With more than a quarter of their Hamburg voters older than 70 years, some "natural" decrease against the last EP election, and/or mobilisation problems (in the literal meaning of the word) shouldn't be ruled out at all.
Conversely, the SPD received 48.4% in the 2011 state election, so 35% for them is well achievable (their Hamburg electorate tends to be relatively old, turnout is an issue, but not as much as in other places).
FDP should get some "sorry, didn't mean to throw you out completely" boost. They received 6.7% in the 2011 state election, when their Federal image was already damaged, and  they hadn't been member of the previous state parliament. Actually, considering that (remaining) FDP voters are rather loyal, low overall turnout could even make a result in the 8-9% range probable. Depends of course a bit on the AfD (especially as they are now running as Hamburg party), and whether some "shy AfD voters" are hiding behind the FDP name.
Linke may in fact include some respondents that will ultimately vote for "others" (especially Pirates and Die PARTEI), but otherwise I don't see much reason why they should perform substantially worse than in the Federal election. Many of their strongholds already had a rather low turnout (<60%) in the federal election.

Can't comment on Bavaria. I guess the key question there is where FW voters will end up, if they vote at all. 

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I don't know about the German candidates in Germany, but at least José Bové is very famous in France, probably more known than Barroso, Schultz or Van Rompuy. It would definitly boost EELV in France if he is nominated.

Rebecca Harms is not that well known, but at least she was on the radio today commenting on the situation in Ukraine (she is member of the EU Parliament delegation that currently tries to broker some agreement there). Bütikofer has been heading the German Greens from 2002 to 2008, and also has the sort of name you tend to recall, but, in all fairness, that's almost the only thing I am recalling about him ...

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Also, Martin Schulz is under fire for a speech he gave at Israel's Knesset where he criticized the treatment of Palestinians.

Under fire? Jewish House left his speech when he talked about a young Palestinian he had met that complained about the average Palestinian only having access to 17 l of drinking water per day, compared to 70 l per average Israeli. Seems to me they intended from he beginning to set up some kind of scandal (after all, Schulz is German), and this was the best occasion they could find. In fact, after having looked at some excerpts from Schulz' speech, it was far more moderate than resolutions on Israel passed by the EP.

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The German CDU is now officially backing Jean-Claude Juncker.

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The decision is coherent in the streak of emphasizing voters' equality by the BVG in the last years. It struck down thresholds in muncipal elections (it did so as the Schleswig-Holstein state constitutional court, it was by then),

It's actually interesting to see how this works out. Last year's local elections in Schleswig-Holstein (the first ones held without threshold) resulted in many counties not having clear parliamentary majorities (neither black-yellow, nor red-green). In Segeberg county, this has now lead to the unprecedented situation of Greens, Pirates, FDP and Linke (yes, you read correctly, FDP and Linke!) together nominating a candidate for the Landrat (county CEO) position, hoping that either CDU or SPD, or both, will go along. Seems like, instead of fracturing, the new situation is rather promoting cohesion and search for workable compromises.

The EP is of course different in scale and diversity, and also still rather powerless. Nevertheless, I think the verdict may boost participation, and if only to possibly keep the NPD from gaining a seat (which, btw, looking at their strength across much of Eastern Germany, they would almost be guaranteed if Germany switched to multimember constituencies).

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On May 8, the ZDF (main German TV broadcaster) and the ORF (main Austrian TV broadcaster) will host a joint TV debate between Jean-Claude Juncker, the EVP frontrunner, and Martin Schulz, the PSE frontrunner.

Ingrid Thurnher (ORF) and Peter Frey (ZDF) will moderate the debate which will be held in Berlin at the ZDF headquarters.

Juncker and Schulz have already agreed to participate in the debate:

I'm a bit indifferent about that. On one hand, it's good that the European election has besome important enough to hold televised debates.  On the other hand, I'm a bit annoyed that the media is staging it as a Americanized duel between two candidates/parties again while disregarding other parties.

"A bit annoyed" would be understating my feeling. Given that both ORF and ZDF are public networks, I am actually not sure that this is constitutional (at least as long as they don't also host a 'minor parties debate'). But I guess we will find out about that soon enough, somebody is surely going to court...