Staten Island seems like the kind of place where an abortion ban would underperform Republican performance particularly heavily (see post above mine). I'm not sure about the margin because recent referendums on the topic in other states had crucially different wording and their divergence from partisan election results was all over the place, but I assume an actual abortion ban would go down in a landslide. It still would do better than in New York as a whole unless I am severely misjudging Upstate.
I've never been to Staten Island. Statistically, it stands out as very Catholic. So far, pro-life has relatively overperformed in very Catholic municipalities wherever a post-Dobbs referendum has been held. However, we don't have a test case for NE Catholics yet. That doesn't mean pro-life would run even or ahead of Trump, but I would expect it to perform better on Staten Island than in a similarly Republican Upstate NY county, for example.
Staten Island is not very representative of NE Catholics in partisanship. To start, “NE Catholics” is not really a cohesive group anyway - it makes more sense to talk about Irish vs Italian vs Polish, etc., with the NE missing the most conservative Catholic group in the U.S., German/Austrian Catholics.
Staten Island is not meaningfully more religious than other Catholic working class areas elsewhere in downstate NY or NJ that are around 50-50 in partisanship. In the latter areas, you should see some underperformance of abortion relative to the Democratic vote. But in the 75% Trump parts of SI, the abortion vote will still be basically the same, i.e., a major overperformance of the Democratic vote, because those areas are Republican for other reasons.
