The absentee/early vote thread

[alomas]

I wouldn't say that Trump has the advantage in IA, so much as it looks like he's overperforming Romney. Remember that Obama won by 5.8%, so a slight improvement for Trump isn't going to be enough to flip it.

I disagree. He is running about 5 points better than Romney right now and the lower turnout means the numbers are smaller. That already cancels out the margin. And if Trump is much more competitive in early voting then it is hard to believe he would do worse than Romney on election day.

[Maxwell]

I wouldn't say that Trump has the advantage in IA, so much as it looks like he's overperforming Romney. Remember that Obama won by 5.8%, so a slight improvement for Trump isn't going to be enough to flip it. FL looks very ambiguous right now.

It seems to be more like Clinton under-performing Obama in Iowa.

[QE]

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports

Big GOP win again in Washoe today: 400 votes. Further erodes Dem margin. Down below 2,000.

D's - 3,529
R's - 3,923

Totals - 9,601

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports

Big GOP win again in Washoe today: 400 votes. Further erodes Dem margin. Down below 2,000.

D's - 3,529
R's - 3,923

Totals - 9,601

Damn

[Speed of Sound]

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports

Big GOP win again in Washoe today: 400 votes. Further erodes Dem margin. Down below 2,000.

D's - 3,529
R's - 3,923

Totals - 9,601

But, of course, that tweet was just Jon's irresistible urge to troll. The follow up:

@RalstonReports

Comparisons for Washoe (Reno) after 11 days of early voting:
2016: Dems +1,900
2012: Dems +300

[swf541]

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports

Big GOP win again in Washoe today: 400 votes. Further erodes Dem margin. Down below 2,000.

D's - 3,529
R's - 3,923

Totals - 9,601

Damn

Meh, wasnt this and yesterday some of the lowest dem days 4 years ago as well?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh f**k.

Has Ralston said anything about what the NV numbers are likely to mean for Senate?

[ApatheticAustrian]

fascinating how suddenly this pattern breaks down..... guess we should count on an equal margin.

[The Other Castro]

Oh f**k.

Has Ralston said anything about what the NV numbers are likely to mean for Senate?

He's said in the past that it's very close, 50-50 odds.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports

Big GOP win again in Washoe today: 400 votes. Further erodes Dem margin. Down below 2,000.

D's - 3,529
R's - 3,923

Totals - 9,601

Damn

Meh, wasnt this and yesterday some of the lowest dem days 4 years ago as well?

Yes, but I'd like to see the democrats lead increase!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh f**k.

Has Ralston said anything about what the NV numbers are likely to mean for Senate?

He's said in the past that it's very close, 50-50 odds.

I don't like this.

[Speed of Sound]

Oh f**k.

Has Ralston said anything about what the NV numbers are likely to mean for Senate?

Damn

fascinating how suddenly this pattern breaks down..... guess we should count on an equal margin.

I think my post about his follow up tweet got lost in the mix. Per Ralston's cold-water follow up tweet,  after today, Dems are up 1,600 votes in Washoe from 2012.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Don't knee-jerk react to Ralston. He gets off on it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh! Good to know.

Let's hope Clark also has a good day.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Oh f**k.

Has Ralston said anything about what the NV numbers are likely to mean for Senate?

nothing at all, since a clear dem victory in 2012 didn't saved the dem seat.....but he wrote that reid's successor is a better pick than the 2012 woman.

[Dr. Arch]

Oh! A little better.

Let's hope Clark also has a good day.

We already know Clark is a good day. We just don't know by how much yet

[alomas]

I'm sorry I have mistaken Iowa for Colorado. But it is still not enough, Trump is running 2-3 points better + lower turnout + most/half at worst vote on 8.11. He is also doing better among Indies than Romney.

[riceowl]

Per Tom Bonier, 28% of Florida republicans are voting Clinton.
Still not really sure where he's getting his data...

[izixs]

I'm watching MSNBC and the fellow on there is talking about their poll. William and Mary I think he said was behind it.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Per Tom Bonier, 28% of Florida republicans are voting Clinton.
Still not really sure where he's getting his data...

If this is true than Florida is likely for Clinton!!!!!!

[Dr. Arch]

Remember that a lot of registered Rs are Cubans who are averse to Trump in all sorts of ways. I've been saying this for a while.

[izixs]

The bottom line stated for early voters had Clinton at 53%. Combined with likely voters she drops to 48% to 40%.

[fldemfunds]

https://mobile.twitter.com/_TargetSmart/status/793635374828363776?s=09

It's nice being right

[swf541]

Oh f**k.

Has Ralston said anything about what the NV numbers are likely to mean for Senate?

nothing at all, since a clear dem victory in 2012 didn't saved the dem seat.....but he wrote that reid's successor is a better pick than the 2012 woman.

Yea, the dem senate canidate in 2012 was horrid and running against an incumbent

[izixs]

If these numbers are true, then yes, clearly a movement of Cubans towards Clinton here. But I wonder if ground game is a factor as well, and if so, how much?

[NOVA Green]

Oregon (Non-Swing State) Update:

34.4% of ballots are now counted as of 11/1, so a large surge since yesterday.

Dems still performing extremely well in Metro Portland (~55%+ of statewide votes)

Multnomah: EV (69-15-16 Dem-Rep-Ind) so Dems same, Reps -1 and Indies +1. RV (59-14-27)

Clackamas: EV (49-36-16 D-R-I) so (D) -1.5, (R) +1.5, (I) +1 RV (40-33-27)

Washington: EV (52-30-18 D-R-I) so (D) +2, (R) -8, (I) +6. RV (42-28-30)


Mid-Willamette Valley:

Yamhill- Democrats continue to lead in Republican Yamhill County
Marion- Democrats still lead, but has shrunk slightly in an Obama '08/Romney '12 County
Polk- Dems continue to lead in Republican Polk County
Linn- Republican voters lead in a heavily Rep County, but by much smaller margins than usual.
Benton- Dems dominating, Reps holding onto their RV #s, Indies still slow to vote
Lane- (57-29-12 D-R-I) vs RV (46-27-27). One of the few counties where Reps are outperforming their RV numbers in EV. Trump factor likely at work in small-town and rural Timber areas.

Coastal Oregon:

Columbia- EV (49-34-17) vs RV (39-31-30)
Dems are actually running +10% above county Reg numbers, versus negligible uptick for Rep numbers in what should be a White-Working-Class Trump type County that has been trending R.

Clatsop-  EV (50-31-19) vs RV (41-29-30)

Reps again under-performing in a WWC coastal county.

Tillamook- EV (48-36-16 D-R-I) vs RV (38-33-29) in a county that George Jr won back in the 2000s.

Lincoln- EV (51-30-19) vs RV (42-27-21). Heavily retiree county and WWC voters in logging and fishing.

Southern Oregon:


Coos County- Democrats still lead narrowly in a former New Deal Democratic Union county that hasn't voted Democrat for President since the Timber Wars of the 1990s.

Douglas- Republicans only ahead by +4k in EV in a +11k Rep county that voted 47% Dukakis in '88.

Jackson- Dems still hold a narrow lead in an Obama '08/Romney '12 County where Reps hold a +2k RV edge. County is a mix of rural, Timber, Middle-Class retirees, and a Uni town (Ashland) in the Southern part of the County.

Josephine- Numbers look stronger than average for Republicans comparing EV to RV, in a county that basically elected to disband their local law enforcement agencies back in 2014. (Sigh....). Love the county, but too many anti-tax Republican types have basically taken over the county over the past four decades.

Curry- Reps only up 500 EVs in a county where they hold a 2k RV lead in a county that is heavily local retirees (25%+ are 65+), but still has an active union timber mill, and is one of my many favorite places on the Oregon Coast.

Central/Eastern Oregon:

Haven't been heavily tracking OR-02 CD, but Deschutes County is basically tied, despite a R +3k RV lead. This county is on my flip list, with a large number of college educated Anglos and growing Latino population that went Obama '08/Romney '12.

Additionally, Wasco County numbers look decent for Dems for another flip, and even Umatilla County is starting to look like a potential flip with a very large and rapidly growing population of Latinos, of whom the majority are registered as Independents.

Bottom line, there appears to be an unprecedented lack of enthusiasm among Oregon Republicans, not only in the Metro-Portland area (Where Trump eked out a 55-57% win running unopposed), but more significantly in the small town and rural parts of Oregon heavily dependent upon Timber, Fishing, and Tourism, where one would imagine that Trump's economic message would play best (Looking at you Columbia, Tillamook, Linn, Coos, and Jackson Counties).

Anyways... most of y'all aren't likely interested in checking out my updates in Safe-D Oregon, but it actually gives me greater optimism in ME-02 that is very similar to many parts of my native state.