The absentee/early vote thread (user search)
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  The absentee/early vote thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The absentee/early vote thread  (Read 171659 times)
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« on: September 09, 2016, 02:20:31 PM »
I don't know what early voting vs. election day voting looked like in 2012, but the margin between Democrat and Republican registration is a lot narrower than it was in 2012 (37-35 vs. 39-33).
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2016, 09:47:34 PM »
Democrats are doing even better than they were doing in 2008 right now in Florida in terms of Absentees.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2016, 01:52:41 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 13, 2016, 01:50:08 PM
Quote from: ApatheticAustrian on October 13, 2016, 01:39:52 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 13, 2016, 01:02:05 PM
Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

you are absolutely right but "a little better" seems to understate it.

Why ? There isn't even a coherent trend right now that favours the Democrats.

For example in FL, which already has 3 million absentee requests Republicans actually are ahead by a few points.

Republicans tend to be ahead by alot in Florida absentees, which doesn't seem to be the case this time around.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2016, 03:23:02 PM »
yeah... there's not a chance this is a low turnout election.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2016, 05:35:35 PM »
this will do significant damage to Trump's popular vote margin.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2016, 04:24:42 PM »
but but but turnouts going to be low because all of my facebook friends keep yammering about how bad both candidates are!
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2016, 04:50:23 PM »
but but but my facebook friends think both candidates are equally bad, thus it's going to be a low turnout election!
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2016, 02:27:33 PM »
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on October 24, 2016, 01:42:59 PM
Quote from: Castro on October 24, 2016, 01:37:30 PM
Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  3m3 minutes ago
Per NBC's data, more than 6.5M Americans have already voted in '16 election. Here's partisan breakdown by battleground state



Before anyone freaks out PA, they have a pretty strict excuse absentee policy. Compared to Virginia where potential disruptions in public transportation is a legitimate excuse.

oh relax guys these are all TRUMP DEMS voting. We're still going to #MAGA folks!
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2016, 02:52:52 PM »
Quote from: OneJ_ on October 24, 2016, 02:49:01 PM
Quote from: BoAtlantis on October 24, 2016, 02:23:12 PM
Busy day for TX

https://twitter.com/JMilesKHOU/status/790601122343858176

"Harris Co Clerk: 9000-10000 people voting, on average, per hour right now on 1st early voting day"

Amazing!

that's terrifying news for The Donald - prior to this election Texas was noted for terrible voter turnout.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2016, 11:19:33 PM »
Every day that voter turnout is high is another day that Trump's chances at the White House slips.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2016, 01:00:50 PM »
wow! look at all those Trump Dems! #MAGA
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2016, 01:54:42 PM »
Is that better or worse than previous early voting in Oregon?
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2016, 10:23:05 PM »
but but but trump is going to turnout new voters who have never voted before!
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2016, 09:05:09 PM »
So today's news wasn't that great?
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2016, 11:00:52 PM »
the gender gap is fascinating - it seems much larger than in previous years. Is that just an early vote thing or is that something new happening this election?
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2016, 11:10:22 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on October 29, 2016, 11:08:28 PM
I suspect we won't have a clear picture of EV numbers until we see the results from the "Souls to the Polls" as well as a surge of weekend numbers from states rolling from Texas to Ohio...

Meanwhile, Atlas will roll on and debate and discuss every infinitesimal movement in the numbers, but we will likely have a much better picture come EOB Monday....

Just sayin'

fair enough - this is the first election I've really dug through early vote numbers so I don't really know what to look for.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2016, 11:46:04 AM »
from what I've read so far a lot of NPA voters are Hispanic.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2016, 02:13:49 PM »
Quote from: Speed of Sound on October 30, 2016, 02:10:33 PM
Nobody can find the Trump buses that are supposed to take people to vote after the NV rally:

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I only hire the best busses, folks!
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2016, 12:52:22 PM »
Voting TRUMP/McGinty is a very hipster/Atlas position, so I'm going to guess not really very many.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2016, 02:42:34 PM »
The problem for Trump, of course, is that few if any polls show Trump doing anything other than way worse than Romney among whites.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2016, 02:48:12 PM »
Quote from: bilaps on October 31, 2016, 02:46:09 PM
Quote from: Maxwell on October 31, 2016, 02:42:34 PM
The problem for Trump, of course, is that few if any polls show Trump doing anything other than way worse than Romney among whites.

yeah right. so he is down with whites, doesn't get any from aa and hispanics, hispanic turnout is up, and he is up 4 points in upshot based on what please tell me?

I was talking nationally - and I honestly don't know what's going on with upshot and Florida.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2016, 02:10:49 PM »
why hasn't their been more conversations about Michigan Democrats just decimating Michigan Republicans this year?? Am i missing something?
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2016, 05:54:04 PM »
I think a 40% bump in Hispanics will likely make up for a 10% drop in blacks, but obviously we won't know that until election day.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2016, 08:44:58 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on November 01, 2016, 08:27:41 PM
I wouldn't say that Trump has the advantage in IA, so much as it looks like he's overperforming Romney. Remember that Obama won by 5.8%, so a slight improvement for Trump isn't going to be enough to flip it. FL looks very ambiguous right now.

It seems to be more like Clinton under-performing Obama in Iowa.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2016, 10:06:38 PM »
Quote from: matthew27 on November 01, 2016, 09:57:31 PM
Wisconsin early vote so far: 51% Dem, 37% Rep. In 2012 it was: 46% Dem, 39% Rep
2012: 46% Dem, 39% Rep, 15% Other (231,000)
2016: 51% Dem, 37% Rep, 12% Other (446,000)

relax bruh - it's all Trump Dems folks!
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